Week 14 Picks

Championship weekend is here for College Football...can you believe it's over already?!!?! Bowl games will be announced on Sunday and then our 2nd season will officially be starting...but the regular season contest will push on through the NFL regular season.

NCAA
JR: ARKST, OREST, OHIO, PITT, HOU, FLA, FIU, TEX, GT, WIS
JG: ORE, WV, CIN, ILL, USC, FLA, CAL, TEX, GT, HAW
MR: OREST, OHIO, WV, CIN, USC, ALA, WASH, TEX, GT, WIS
MK: ARKST, WV, CIN, HOU, CAL, FAU, USF, NEB, GT, WIS
AW: ARKST, WV, PITT, ECU, ILL, FLA, FAU, TEX, GT, WIS
GR: OREST, WV, CIN, HOU, NMST, FLA, UCONN, NEB, GT, WIS
MH: OREST, CMU, CIN, FRES, AZ, FLA, WASH, TEX, GT, WIS
MC: WKY, CMU, RUT, CIN, HOU, ILL, LT, CAL, FIU, UCONN
SS: ORE, WV, PITT, ILL, USC, ALA, CAL, TEX, GT, WIS

NFL
JR: BUF, PHI, TB, KC, MIN
JG: TB, STL, TEN, DAL, BAL
MR: NYJ, TB, NE, NYG, MIN
MK: NYJ, CAR, PIT, NYG, MIN
AW: HOU, NYG, SF, MIN, BAL
GR: NO, NE, SD, DAL, MIN
MH: NO, NYG, SF, MIN, BAL
MC: PHI, TB, DET, JAC, MIN
SS: DEN, PIT, NO, NE, MIN

Lots of the same teams being picked in NCAA and NFL this week due to the lack of College games.

I'm going make or break tonight with 3 games in action...BILLS, ARKST, BEAVERS...3-0.

NCAA
ARKST-WKY
ARKST is a pretty good 3-8 SBC team, if there is such a thing. WKY is riding an 0-11 run in their first year in D1 and they fired their coach...I guess they were hoping for big things in their first season. 5 of the ARKST losses were by 1 score or less and are only a -1 in Avg Pt Diff...while WKY is a -21 and has only been within 1 score 3 times this year. Seems like a no-brainer right?

OREST-ORE
The Civil War should be amazing tonight. I'm loving the 8pm start time so I can actually have a chance to watch a lot of it...assuming I can get the TV off of a very special Private Practice event that will change everything! This game is always good, and this year it's for a berth in Pasadena. Ducks ruined the Beavers chances at the Rose Bowl last year, so I'm loving the revenge angle and the 9.5 pts I am getting w/the Beavers. Very similar teams, both coming off a bye...it's going to be a classic. I think the Beavers for sure cover if not win outright.

OHIO-CMU
MAC title game on FRI...these games are always tight so I picked OHIO. I don't always have a lot of data to back up these picks, so there you go.

WV-RUT and CIN-PITT
Big East takes over the early time slots on Saturday w/no B10 action. I have a hard time picking RUT after they totally F'd me over in the SYR performance a couple of weeks ago. Did you know RUT is +20 in turnovers this year?!? That's crazy, how can they only be 8-3? Their luck has been changing lately, so I'm hoping it continues. WV was impressive last week - not sure why I thought PITT would take that one, in the Backyard Brawl the DOG is ALWAYS the pick. Love the WV D against RUT, so I'll take them. CIN-PITT is for the Big East title and I really think it's time for Cincy's bubble to pop. Their coach is leaving, they are on the road, they know the NC hopes are gone, they play ZERO D...while PITT is coming off a tough rivalry loss, playing at home, looking for a BCS bid, and has played great D all year in the Big East...love it. Give me PITT in a pick'em.

HOU-ECU
HOU scores 45 per game, ECU scores 27. This game is on a neutral field and HOU is only giving 1? What am I missing? Go HOU!

FRES-ILL
ILL is still terrible. FRES can score and more importantly they can run the ball really well...ILL doesn't stop anyone from running, well almost anyone. LOVE FRESNO getting 1 on the road. Zook and crew have nothing to play for except Juicy Lucy's last game.

NMST-BOISE
46.5...and this line actually went to 48+...wow. 2 angles, first BOISE will be looking to score 100 to try and gain a few extra votes. Angle 2: it's 48 points!! If NMST can muster 1 or 2 TD's they will cover. Have to take points if you're going to pick it. GR is the only one on it...and he took points.

AZ-USC
No idea on this one. I picked AZ just because I think they will have a little more to play for than USC, but I really don't know.

FLA-ALA
LOVE FLA!! This is still the best team in the country without a doubt. ALA has shaky QB play and I will NEVER bet agaionst Tebow in a big game. I'm glad it's under a TD, but I love the Gators!!

CAL-WASH
A 4 win WASH team that was once in the Top 25 (how ridiculous is that!!) is very dangerous at home against CAL. The Bears have had a very disappointing run and I think they come in extremely flat and lose this one outright to the Huskies.

FAU-FIU
ALways bey FIU...

USF-UCONN
Did you know the Jekyl and Hyde UCONN team that is/was a bettor's worst nightmare is actually 9-1 ATS this year?!? Wow. USF was hyped last week as the team to watch with MIA coming in..."USF wants to prove that they've arrived, big game for recruiting against the 'U'"...nice work guys. They got throttled and have dropped 4 of 6. I'll take UCONN in this one, but I'm still scared to bet on them.

TEX-NEB
This is the only game with any chance to F-up the entire BCS...but I really can't see it happening. TEX has a good D, really, regardless of the A&M game, they have a good D. NEB has a good D. The problem is that TEX has a world class offense and NEB has a Junior high offense. To only be at 14 points while playing for a berth in the title game is crazy. I really think TEX comes out and get points on SpT/D and win this one going away. The one scary thing is that this is the B12 title game, and it has screwed up many o' NC game scenarios before...but I don't think it happens.

GT-CLEM
Thought we would be split on this but the numbers came out GT-8 CLEM-0. Shocking. They both played bad last week, but it's just too damn hard to pick CLEM to win anything like an ACC Championship. GT is steady eddie with that running game and they played a thriller earlier this year with GT coming back to win. Johnson is a good coach and he's won big games in the past - I'll take the Jackets.

WIS-HAW
The 2nd to last NCAAF o the season features the Hawaii Homo Rainbows against the fightin' Baaaadgers of Sconnyland. HAW has actually jurned things around lately and won some games, but I have to think that WIS will be too much on the ground for the Rainbows. 11.5 might be a little much on the road in a meaningless game for Sconny, but I have been burned on this last game of the season before by picking HAW...it won't happen again.

And with that, the NCAA season is over. Well, not totally...ARMY-NAVY next week will be one we all have to pick.

NFL

Some quick NFL thoughts on all games:

NYJ-BUF: like how BUF is rolling, I like them tonight. Dirty Sanchez is steee-rugglin' and it should continue this week.
PHI-ATL: No Matt Ryan, Ron Mexico returns to the ATL, this should be ugly...E-A-G-L-E-S
TB-CAR: how is CAR giving more than a TD to anyone right now? No Del Homme will be a plus, but I LOVE TB in this one
STL-CHI: Can't pick STL, CHI can score on bad teams, so I'll take them.
DET-CIN: might be a little high at 14, but Bungals at home should get it done.
TEN-IND: Love TEN in this one. 8 is too much the way both of these teams are playing. TEN can hang, INDY is bound to lose one of these next few...close this week.
HOU-JAC: Bad vs. Worse. I think HOU can still be decent, but they HAVE to show it this week. JAGS playing another home game that looks like a closed pre-season practice session...the pick is HOU.
DEN-KC: UPSET ALERT! KC wins this one. I'm feeling really confident about it.
OAK-PITT: Can't pick OAK after that show against DAL. PITT wins 13-0.
NO-WAS: Tough not to pick Aints giving less than 10 to a poor team. I'll go with the who dats.
NE-MIA: NE is still a good club, MIA wants to try and belong, I'll take NE. I hate betting against Brady and the Sweatshirt.
SD-CLE: Tough road trip, but 2 teams that are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum right here. I'll picks Super Chargers because they score 30 every game and Brady Q can't score.
DAL-NYG: I hate where both of these teams are at right now - but I think NYG rebound momentarily at home and win a pick'em this week.
SF-SEA: Not big on either of these teams either, but SEA's home field is not what it used to be and SF has shown a little promise. 49ers are the pick.
MIN-ARI: Grocery bagger might not play so hot tub guy would step in...yeah. If that happens Vikes win by 21. If Mr. Gozer plays it's only a 7 pt Viking win.
BAL-GB: Tough call for me. GB is playing better at home, but you have to think BAL is going to make a little bit of a charge late in the season. My pick is RAVENS, but it is at a 55% confidence clip.


There you go - enjoy the weekend. GIGANTIC Bowl Preview post coming on Monday assuming all lines are out by then. Call me crazy, but after watching a couple night of Gopher Hoops I'm really ready to watch some more Gopher Football!!