Week 7 Preview

Chippy the Attack Gopher is ready for a rumble this weekend as the Cats of jNU (just Northwestern) comes to town. We are already off to an exciting start to the week with the TEN win (only 2 of us had and 17! on PIT last night). Tony Weber and I are clearly the only believers in the mighty Titans...for this week at least.

CONSENSUS:
Back to reality with a 6-9 week again. We are well below .500 for the year, which just continues to prove the point that if everyone likes one side in a game you should run away and pick the other side. Here's our card for this week:

PIT(L),MIN, CIN, NE, DEN, WIS, BAL, SF, STAN, FLA, OHIOST, ATL, TB, MSU, DET

Gophers and NW both have 7 backers this week - tied with the Lions for 15th most popular.

NCAA
Last week I didn't go 7-3 like I did the previous 4 weeks...I went 8-2. Seriously, this is a crazy run that I really want to last for 2 more weekend (VEGAS next weekend). Let's see what happens.

IOWA-MSU
Gentlemen, you are witnessing history for the FC this week, as for the 1st time in my life I am picking the Hawkeyes this week. I'm having a hard time with it myself, but it looks like one of the best 3-4 picks on the board in the NCAA game this week. Iowa actually has a more potent offense than Sparty and is playing with a lot of good angles this week. ioWAA is off a bye and in a revenge spot after the Sparty beatdown in Kinnick last year. Sparty coming off an ugly win at IU and they have already lost 2 home games after losing zero total the last 2 years. I feel terrible about this, but I think ioWAAAA wins this thing by a FG 23-20.

 

TEX-OK

Texas state fair weekend summed up into one little photo. This one is always a big game, no matter how bad the 2 teams are. This year, like usual, they are both pretty good. OK is coming off a big win at TT, while TEX is licking their wounds after the shootout L to WV and Holgo. It's really the 3rd big game in a row for TEX, which is never an easy thing. For that reason alone, I think I'll take the Sooners in this one, but close. OK wins 31-28.

 NW-MN

No matter how much I regret the Brew years, there are some memorable nuggets that will exist out there forever. The best part is that before we played NW in one of his final games, Fitz claimed that MN was "extremely well coached" and then the guy is fired like a week later. Fitz is actually a good coach, but one thing his crew has struggled with the last few years is the hangover effect after that 1st loss. The last 3 years, after that first tough loss for NW, they have been unable to rebound the next week and have lost all of those as well. Hmmm.... NW is also a terrible team in OCT when the real games start. 0-4 last OCT is a pretty good indication of that. And this year's club is very similar to that team, actually all Fitz NW teams have been similar. I respect the hell out of them, but when you look at the results they are extremely average. Neither the offense or the defense jump off the page at you. They don't blow anyone out, and they don't get blown out. NW comes in off that hangover loss to PSU for a 2nd straight road game, while the Maroon and Gold are coming off a bad L to ioWAAA and a bye week to figure it out. Both of those are great indicators that we will see a much better performance on Saturday from Kill and company. The Gopher D, as poorly as they played in the first half at ioWAAA, is improved and will be able to do some good things against the Cats. It's also homecoming, Gray sounds like he'll play a bit, and the Gophs are getting points. Lots of good things in our favor here...so I'm going Gophers 28-17.

WIS-PUR

It's insane, but this is basically the battle for the Leaders division crown this season. How very Big 10 of us to have 2 mediocre teams deciding the fate of the division in an early OCT snoozer like this...thanks a lot Bin Laden (and OHIOST and PSU). Remember when WIS was scoring about 50-60 per game last year? I think PUR does. WIS, after losing on back to back hail mary throws last year, kept the heavy foot of Bert Bielema on the gas throughout a beat down of PUR 62-17. I'm not a PUR hype believer or a Danny Hope fan, but I honestly think that beatdown last year will play a part in PUR's motivation for this one. Also the fact that MICH came into their house last week and pretty much gave them a similar whooping...if PUR can't get motivated for this game then they can't get motivated at all. I'll Boiler Up...PUR 24-13.

KST-ISU

Steele Jantz was benched again last week, and the Clones beat TCU. He was benched last year, and the Clones beat OKST. Seeing a theme here? Steele has found a permanent home on the bench, which might give the Clones hope. KST by 7 feels a little heavy considering every game these 2 have played the last few years has been close. Clones cover...Wildcats win 35-33.

NC-MIAMI

No good pictures available for this matchup, and really...it's the ACC and nobody really cares anyway. Home team has won 10 of 12 in this series, which made me go with my original opinion of taking the Canes here by a FG 38-35.

WV-TT

The Mountaineers are the most exciting team in Amercia, I don't think there's any doubt there (average total of 87!! in their games this year). However, coming off a giant win in TEXAS last weekend, they now go to Lubbock. Not real intimidating, right? Well, I think WV could get caught in a sandwich situation letdown here with KST on deck, so I'm liking the Red Raiders to shock the world and win this one...49-44 TT.

STAN-ND

Beano Cook, #1 ND fan of all-time, died this week. I think I kind of missed him when he was relevant, but all I remeber of this guy growing up was him talking about ND and how they should go 10-1 every year. I'm not sure if he was great, but he'll be missed for the Sid like comedy he provided in his later years. So the Irish this week try to continue their great start with a big one against a STAN team that most are still trying to figure out. The number of 8 is pretty good in this one, as I think ND will play well and hold down a mediocre STAN offense. I'm not sure that ND will score many points either, however. I think it ends close to the number, but I'll take STAN to be within a TD...ND wins 21-14.

FLA-VAN

It's just so easy to make fun of the South. I'm thinking they are all still riding blow-up dolphins in the street while sipping on a little bourbon after the big win over LSU last week. Now the Gators have a final tune up before the big VEGAS Weekend game with SC next week. G-Reg's VANDY squad hit a high point last week by beating lowly MIZZOU (enjoying the SEC guys?) and now welcome in the mighty Gators in what looks like a potential trap game. However, I think the Gators have it rolling well enough to not screw up the big meeting with the 'Cocks next weekend. Gators roll...34-7.

SC-LSU

Danger, danger, danger! All of the love that SC has gained from the beatdown they gave GEO last week will likely be gone after their trip to Death Valley. Les has lost 2 games in a row 1 time, and that was with his worst LSU team he ever had. Even worse for the Ball Coach, this game is in Death Valley at night...almost a hopeless situation for SC. SC is absolutely the better team, but as we've seen, that is not always the deciding factor. The QB for LSU will make some plays, the defense will be nuts, and LSU will pull out some voodoo Death Valley magic on Saturday night. Tigers win and spoil game of the year part I (SC-FLA) for next week...LSU 19-14...you know it will be a weird number like that with 3 FG's a safety and a TD with a 2 pointer! LSU football!!

NFL

I had some issues with my NFL picks from last week and finished only 7-7, disappointing after the 12-2 run in Week 5. But life goes on, and I'm already 1-0 for this week so things are looking up.

So I've got a system for picking NFL games, and it's been pretty damn reliable the last few years. I gathered up the numbers for this week and my first game said TEN -2 over PIT. I didn't believe it, but look what happens when you don't follow your own logic. At least I had TEN with the points, but I went away from them in the pick'em assuming it wouldn't work out. Anyway, on to the next.

IND-NYJ: Loving the JETS here to win by a TD.

STL-MIA: Miami crushes. I like both these teams, but STL off a big division win will not be up for this one. Miami wins by 9.

OAK-ATL: Falcons are my suicide pick this week, although I like the Raiders to cover. ATL by 6.

DAL-BAL: Another one that made me scratch my head, but I'll go with it. I have DAL winning by 1 on the road against a BAL team that has been anything but impressive recently.

CIN-CLE: I'm torn on this one, but I'll give CLE the edge after they lost in Week 2 to CIN. CLE +2.

DET-PHI: The Eagles might be the worst best team out there. Lions had to figure some things out after 2 bad L's and a bye, so they come back ready to play and beat PHI by a FG.

KC-TB: Brady Quinn on the road with a bye next week for KC...wow, why even show up? TB by 10.

BUF-ARI: This looks like a toss up, but I'll say ARI squeaks by but doesn't cover the 5.

NE-SEA: SEA is always a tough spot to play, as we've seen this year. But I really think NE is rolling right now and will keep on trucking...NE by 7.

MIN-WAS: The numbers tell me if RG3 plays the Skins win by 6. However, I picked Purple in all the pick'ems because I'm not sure if RG3 will play or how much he might with a more important game against NYG on deck. I'll take MIN until they prove me wrong...SKOL WINS 21-20.

NYG-SF: Everyone is in love with SF now since they started covering big numbers and blowing people out. However, this NYG is strong and will come out to play on the road this week. I think it's a very close game and 49ers win by a FG or less.

GB-HOU: My number is HOU -4 on this one, the same as the spread. I can't trust GB rigtht now, although they are getting close to the desperate territory, which makes them dangerous. I'll take GB to cover the 4 and lose.

DEN-SD: a coin flip game in my book, give me the better D and better trending team in DEN getting +2.

That's you're late but extended Week 7 Weekend Preview - enjoy the games, Good Luck! 

Week 6 Preview

Week 6 is loaded with a great slate of NCAA games and the first full round of bye weeks in the NFL. The FC group is coming off our best week of the year, so let's see if we keep the momentum going.

CONSENSUS:
An astounding 10-5 last week, certainly a huge turnaround from our usual performance in this area. We're either getting smarter or luckier...not sure which is better.

This week's 15 are as follows:
BAL, CHI, PIT, GB, NYG, NO, NW, ATL, GEO, UCLA, DEN, LSU, MICH, OHIOST, STL

NCAA:
Shocking, but I went 7-3 in my preview picks again last week, including nailing the OHIOST-MSU score right on the nuts. That's like 4 weeks in a row at 7-3, not a bad way to make money if you do it right. I feel like my time is running out however, and Vegas is still 2 weeks away. We'll see...here are my picks in the top 10 games for this week:

NW AT PSU
I really don't think NW is that great of a team, and this game will be a huge test for them even though PSU is down this season. PSU destroyed ILL last week, now they play at home in a big game...could be interesting. For being undefeated NW has some very average numbers, but they've won in typical NW fashion. This week I think they find a way once again to sneak out with an emotional close win before coming to Dinkytown next weekend. NW 22-21.

VT AT NC
VT was a pretty popular ACC choice this preseason, but they really have been a disappointment. Even their D, which is typically great, looks pedestrian this year. NC struggled a lot out of the gate, but has since gotten healthy and started to roll a little bit. I think NC is better in all facets and wins this one easily...27-10.

AZ AT STAN
I've been a believer in AZ for the last few weeks, not really sure why, but they've been on my short list a lot lately. I think most are down on STAN based on the WASH loss, but I think they were a little overrated to begin with. STAN has struggled at times with moving the ball, but I don't expect the Zona D to stop them. Especially in a rebound game off a bad loss, I think STAN will come out running it and won't be stopped. AZ, as always, will score some points, but I don't think they keep up. STAN wins 41-17.

LSU AT FLA
Very big games in the SEC on Saturday, and this is the first one. The Tigers man-handled the Gators last year who were starting a true freshman QB in his first action. At LSU is not the ideal spot to make your college debut as a QB! From what I've seen this year from Muschamp and the Gators, I think they are a very different team and may be seeking revenge against the Grass Eater in the swamp this week. The Gators are also coming in off a bye, so 2 weeks to prepare...hmmmm. LSU has been great on D, but ineffective on offense the last couple of weeks. The new QB is struggling to adjust, and I don't think the Gator D will give too much on Saturday. Getting 2.5 at home in a big game with revenge on their mind?!? Yep, I'm calling for the Gators to pull the upset...FLA 20-9.

OK AT TT
Is TT for real and is OK really not very good? I think both of those will be answered this week. I'm not sure I believe in TT, their offense always scores points but I don't think their D will finish anywhere near the #1 ranking they have right now. OK has looked awful so far, but come on, it's OK right...they should be fine. Also, I think they'll be playing with a revenge angle against the TT team that ended their big home win streak last year. My numbers are calling for a TT win by a FG, but I can't go with that. I'll say OK wins 44-31.

MICH AT PUR
I've heard no less than 3 people this week talking/writing about how PUR might be the B1G Champs this year. I think it's time to simmer down nah on that one. PUR still looks very average at best, they are playing with confidence now but after that first loss it will crumble like it always has under Danny Hope. MICH has had a very tough early schedule, but it's probably time for them to start figuring things out. Robinson avoids the turnovers and runs for 2 score in a MICH win that starts the annual PUR collapse...MICH 34-27.

WV AT TEX
This is the toughest call of the week for me. WV is pretty flawless on offense, which could be enough for them to win this one. TEX hasn't exactly been great on D this year and the offense has been known to struggle in the past even though the numbers are nice this year. Both D's thrive off the turnovers at this point, but I probably give the nod to TEX in the long run. I think it will be close, so I'll take the points at Crazy Holgo to cover and lose a tight one...TEX 31-28.

GEO AT SC
I nearly included this one on my list, but didn't. I really was surprised by the way GEO struggled last week with TEN. I think they could be a little overrated based on their strong offense this season. SC has played great since that early scare with VANDY. This one comes down to defense for me, which always seems to be the case in the SEC. SC has the superior D and home field in a night game against an offense missing their top WR and off a shaky turnover laced performance last week. I take Spurrier to win and cover...19-13.

MIAMI AT ND
This game is actually being played at Soldier's Field in Chicago, but basically a home game for ND. Miami is coming off of 2 emotional wins in a row, and now they go to a chilly Chicago for an October game. ND is rolling right now, and living off their defense, while Miami plays no D and scores a bunch of points. I hate giving the large number with ND, but I really think they make it work this week and won't have a problem scoring against this horrible Miami D. Irish win and cover 40-21.

NEB AT OHIOST
A huge clash in the B1G between two teams both coming off big wins last week. On paper, this line looks exactly right to me. NEB has better numbers on both sides of the ball, but the X-factor may be Uncle Rico against Urban's D. I think the Buckeyes will be jacked for this game and force a couple bad turnovers to come out on top 27-23.

NFL
Last week I went 12-3 in the preview picks, tied for the win in this pool and won 2 other pick'ems...so it was a pretty good week. Once again, karma has to catch up to me and change this back...but I'm rolling with it while I can. Here's what I'm thinking for this week:

ARI-STL: Obviously, this one is almost over, I had STL in the pool and loved them to win this one. ARI is not for real, no offense gets you nowhere in the NFL.
PHI-PIT: Another game I love. PHI has burned me 2-3 times this year, so I'm going against them with a PIT team off the bye. PHI won a must have game last week, so I don't think they'll bring much to this one.
MIA-CIN: I kind of don't think this MIA team is half bad. Getting more than a FG in this game seems high to me, so I'll go Fins on the road with the Bengals off 2 blowout wins in a row.
GB-IND: Pack should have lost last week, they won't lose this week...but I like IND to cover the number. I really don't think this GB club is that great this season.
CLE-NYG: CLE is so terrible I think I have to go NYG.
ATL-WAS: I'm still not sure if ATL is as great as people think. This will be a tough road trip, so I'm going to go with RG3 again this week and expect the Skins to win outright.
BAL-KC: BAL rolls very easily in this one and crushes KC.
SEA-CAR: I think CAR is a mess, and with a bye coming next week I think they lay another egg against a better than expected SEA team and lose this one.
CHI-JAC: I like betting against big MNF winners on the road the next week...but JAC is pretty awful. However, out of principal, I will take JAC.
TEN-MIN: Major trap game for Purple team. They will not cover this number and I'm hoping they just do enough to win it.
BUF-SF: I think I'm in the minority here, but I kind of think BUF will give the 49ers a game in this one. I'll take Bills and points.
DEN-NE: Brady found it last week, DEN on the road is still not very impressive...NE rolls.
SD-NO: 0-5 would end the season for NO. SD on the road off a big division win will be sleep walking. NO gets win number one by a good margin.
HOU-NYJ: Tough call in this one. It seems like a perfect spot for the NYJ to step up and show people they are indeed an NFL team and play really well when you least expect it. HOU has cruised so far and coming into a seemingly easy road game I think they might lay off the gas a bit. I think it's close for a half, but the Jets really don't have anything or anyone that can score points...so I'll take HOU.

The sting from the Maroon and Gold loss last week has kind of worn off. It was a frustrating game, but a young team on the road needs to start well to have the confidence...and they didn't. MN got down early and it snowballed from there. No worries, I really like our chances to still be a bowl team and get a win next week over NW.

Sorry for the lack of creativity this week on the preview, on a time crunch. We have 6 kindergarteners sleeping over tomorrow night for my daughter's birthday party, so there's a little prep work to be done...according to my wife at least.

Good Luck this weekend.