Week 1 Preview - Vegas Baby!!

Finally, week 1 is here and I'm off to beautiful Las Vegas in about 12 hours. But before then, let's see what Week 1 of the Football Challenge has in store for us this year. Last year, Tait Nelson dominated his first ever FC Week 1 by going 13-2 and setting a record for the greatest single week in FC history. This may lead you all to believe that week 1 is easy...I guess we'll find out. PAYOUTS $50/week to the winner Reg Season 1st - $800 Reg Season 2nd - $300 Post Season 1st - $300 Bowl Champion - $200 The consensus card for the week looks like this (Top 15 selected teams)(7 way tie for 15th place so I listed them all) ALA OHIOST SC MN STAN NAVY NW ORE MIA PSU FLA TEX MSU NEB BYU WV ISU GEO CLEM OK VT

Each week I'll throw out my thoughts on the big games of the weekend, so here we go: SC AT VAN +7 Vandy is starting to look like a real club that actually can play in the SEC lately. SC is one of the most popular public plays this week, and that should be enough to scare you off. However, 13 of us still went with SC vs. only 4 on VAN this week. I love VAN and think that they have a chance to win it outright. I'm not 100% convinced that Lattimore is back at full-strength, and I think VANDY's home field will provide an edge. I think VAN scares the crap out of an overrated SC team and covers...SC wins 19-17. GOPHERS at UNLV +8.5 11 on Gophs, 4 on Rebels. I'm a believer, once again, that the Gophs are going to start the turnaround process this season and get back to a 5-7 win team that competes with everyone. UNLV should be improved, but it's still a B1G team vs. a MWC team, so one would think if the Gophs play well they can handle this. I think the offense impresses, the D causes a few concerns and Gophs win and cover 31-21. WASU at BYU -13.5 Pirates at Mormons - interesting battle. BYU is pretty solid year in and year out, so I think they have the edge here. Leach and his band of misfit Pirates will be breaking in a brand new system, which usually takes a little time to catch on. I'll take Mormons winning a high scoring - no defense kind of game, 44-28. TN vs. NCST +3.5 in ATL Tennessee has been down, Dooley is on the hot seat, they just dumped a stud WR from the team...one may think this club would respond with an inspired performance. However, I think NCST has some real sleeper potential in the ACC and will play a very solid and fundamental game in true Tom O'Brien style. Tyler Bray will continue to show his struggles, but TN's defense will keep it close. I like NCST to win outright 27-23. Boise at Sparty -7 Boise is a very difficult team to bet against, but with the heavy losses and breaking in a brand new QB against probably the best defense in the B1G looks like a very tough spot to me. Both my Sparty guys are betting on BOISE, which means I like my Sparty pick even more. The new QB Maxwell doesn't scare me because they have a great running game and they always seem to play well in B1G games under Dantonio. I like Sparty 33-23. ND vs. NAVY +16.5 Irish have suspended pretty much half the team for this one and are breaking in a new QB. Oh yeah, and the game is in Dublin and being played in the morning at 6am Vegas time. Who would you expect to handle this unique situation better, a group like ND or a group like NAVY? Exactly. NAVY plays them tough and makes it an easy cover. ND wins 23-17. CLEM vs. AUB +3 at ATL Another game in ATL, and another game where I like the dog. CLEM is without their best player, WR Sammy Watkins, and I feel like they are overrated after the crazy season they had last year. AUB is probably laying in the weeds a little bit after a down year. The AUB defense will be better, it's still an SEC defense. The question is can AUB score points. I think yes, they have a runner back at QB, which can only help the offense. I'll take AUB to win 26-23. MICH vs. ALA -12.5 in Arlington Lots of Bama love from this group, and I agree. MICH is another team riding their success of last year and in my opinion they are overrated. They still don't throw it real well, and good luck trying to just get by with running it against ALA. I know it's a new D with a lot of new faces, but it's still Saban and Smart and this is still a group with about 20 5-star guys on their 3 deep roster. I think ALA will have a plan to contain Robinson and should not have a lot of trouble scoring against MICH. ALA in a laugher 37-14. GT at VT -7 Lots of VT love in this one, our tiebreaker for week 1. I am on the other side of the fence here. I love VT at home in most cases, but not this week. With GT, you know what you're going to get, tough D and the triple option. VT had a nice year, has a pro QB, but they need to rebuild their entire offensive line and replace all relevant skill position players. Their defense should be outstanding, like it is every year, but I don't know if that's enough to beat GT. I think Paul Johnson pulls out a couple new wrinkles in this game to take away the "time to prepare for the option" perceived advantage and puts enough pressure on Thomas to make him buckle as he searches for who his help will be this year. I don't love GT enough to call for a win, but I think it will be very close...VT 19-17. Those are my games of the week. Lots of big lines and non-exciting matchups, but at least Football is back and we're off and rolling with the Football Challenge 2012! Good Luck to everyone - I'll send out a recap on Sunday with where we sit. Below is the grid with all the picks for everyone. They are ordered by gametimes.

Lock in your picks for Week 1

Your time is almost up - in the next 24-26 hours I need your picks in my inbox. So far I have received 3 of the projected 26 entries for this year. DUE BY NOON WEDNESDAY - send me your 15 teams for the week plus your pick in the tiebreaker (GT at VT -7). Good Luck!

*Week 1 Lines*

Here are the official lines for Week 1 of the Football Challenge. This week is unique since we only have NCAA Football going on and no NFL. So we will be picking 15 NCAA games against the spread. Here is how to read the games:

SC  --->road team
VAN  7 -->home team getting 7 points (+7)

If VAN was favored it would be listed as a -7. Top team is always the road team, however some games are neutral site - that will not be called out and up to you to figure out.

The lines are current as of this morning on PINNACLE. The lines in this email will hold, no changes happen in between now and game time for our purposes.

WHAT I NEED FROM YOU:
Send me a list of the 15 teams you want to take for week 1. You cannot take both sides of the same game. Shoot me an email with your 15 teams BY WEDNESDAY AUG 29TH AT NOON. Late entries will not be accepted and you will not have picks for the week. Last year we accepted a few stragglers, but that won't happen this year as many members felt it was unfair for the late guys to have any extra information when making their picks. I will send out a reminder each week if I have not heard from you.

SCORING:
2 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 points for a loss....most points wins the week. Most points for the season wins 1st place.

ENTRY FEE:
Still waiting to hear from these guys on entry fee - for those of you who have already paid or notified me that you are playing and the check is in the mail...THANK YOU. The rest of you...well, let's figure it out by the time next week rolls around. I don't want to be hunting anyone down mid-season. You're big boys, let's figure this out on time.

OGE - need $60
LUKE W
CORCORAN
ROE
KOBOW

Please let me know if you plan on playing and send over your entry fee now.

Finally...here are the lines for Week 1 - good luck gentlemen!!

The NCAA Football season will be kicking off in only 17 days!! What does this mean for you...well, a couple of things:

1) Get me your $100 entry fee in the next 2 weeks if you want in the FC for this year. Here is a list of who has paid:

Matt O'Groske - in for $40 (from last year)
Jeremy Hammon - in for $50 (from last year)
George Thomas - PAID
Steve Schuft - PAID
Cole Peyton - PAID
Jared Groehler - PAID
Chris Stone - PAID
Tony Weber - PAID
Mark Ossanna - PAID
James Rollins - PAID
Greg Rollins - PAID

That means I need payment from a lot of you over the next couple of weeks, here are the guys I have on the list to play but have not paid:

Mike Thomas
Mark Heinert
Mike Setnicker
Rob Olson
Luke Wendlandt
Adam Wendlandt
Mike Corcoran
Mike Roe
Tait Nelson
Joe Adams
Mike Kobow
Mike Mallak
Rod Swenson
Rich Mornson?
Paul Thaden?

2) The lines for week one are already available and moving, but I will send them out to you NEXT WEDNESDAY (AUG 22nd). This will give you one full week to get them in to me. I will be heading out to Vegas on Thursday the 30th, so I'll get the first preview out there before I take off for the weekend. The typical schedule after the opening week will be sending the lines on Tuesday and I'll need them back by EOD Thursday before the Thursday night kickoffs.

Thanks guys.