Week 5 Preview

For the first time in 3 years, the Jug will be on the line this weekend in the Big House. I can remember twice in my lifetime where the Maroon and Gold have owned this hardware, could Saturday make it the 3rd?

Sorry for the lack of a "What We Learned" blast yesterday - I was too frustrated to create it all over again after the internet meltdown. But here we go again with a full preview for the weekend ahead.

PICKS

JR: USF ARK GEO ILL NAVY TCU GT VT FIU NEB CAR CLE MIN ATL IND

JG: NEB IND MN BAY TEX BYU TCU COL UK ATL IND BUF STL PIT NE

MR: GT NEB MICH OK ND BOISE ARK LSU TN FLA IND STL CLE MIN CHI

AW: BC MN MSU PUR A&M FIU GEO ALA NMST MIN ATL BUF NE DET HOU

GR: CLEM NEB MICH ILL KST USF ND BOISE ALA MIN ATL DAL WAS GB BAL

MH: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

MC: DUKE ARMY EMU OHIO TCU AZ ARKST NMST UTST SJST MIN NE IND JAC DEN

SS: WF MICH UCONN WV ARMY BYU TCU BOISE STAN MIN NE DEN DET NYG MIA

RO: NEB ILL A&M TEX TT NILL TCU BOISE ALA LSU NE DET NYG BUF CHI

TN: CLEM GT NEB TT USF CIN NAVY OHIO BALLST UTST NE DET BUF MIN NYJ

MT: GT BC A&M ASU ALA AUB NEV DET MIN NYG IND WAS BAL HOU TEN

GT: CLEM NEB ILL MICH OHIOST PITT TEM AUB DET MIN NYG HOU NE MIA ATL

MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

CP: MICH TT USF SYR SMU ARMY BALLST WASU LSU UTST MIN NE MIA STL CAR

LW: NEB OK ND UCLA FLA MIN NE NYG ATL NYJ GB PIT CIN SD TB

JH: MICH PSU WIS OK TEX USF ND USC LSU NE ATL GB CHI NO PHI

MO: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

I'm missing picks from 3 of you still. As long as I receive them today, I will still allow it for this week. But for the future here's the deal - it's not a tough concept, I get you the games on Tuesday and you have 2 nights to figure it out plus Thursday morning. Whether it's doing it right away when you get them or making it a Thursday morning tradition we have to start getting these back on time to make this a fair deal for everyone. The extra 6 hours or extra day(s) before turning in your picks allow you to see more late line moves and injury info - which isn't fair to the rest of the group. I make them due on THUR so we can get them in before any games are played and I can type up the full weekly preview. The deadline is not changing, but if you're struggling with it you'll have to figure out a way to fix it. I'll send out the Thursday morning reminder, but that's it. I'm not begging for picks from anyone any more. If they aren't here on time on Thursday then you're out for the week. I get being an hour or two late if you're stuck with a meeting or something, but nothing will be accepted on Friday or Saturday any more. Sorry to be a dick, but there's cash on the line and I'm pissing more people off by not enforcing the deadline than excluding 1-2 guys who can't get the picks in on time.
 
Sorry, on to better stuff.
 
LOCKS OF THE CENTURY...OF THE WEEK
I nailed these both again last week and bragged about it in the deleted "WWL" disaster from yesterday that nobody got to see. So I'll reiterate, SC over VANDY and BAL over STL both crushed. if SC wouldn't have had 5 turnovers it would have been even easier. VANDY had 77 yards of total offense! For this week, here are the 2 best bets:
 
NAVY -3 vs. AF
Putting this at a -3 basically means Vegas sees these 2 teams as being equal...which is wrong. NAVY has dominated AF over the years, so you have the historical edge on your side - and last year AF actually beat them, so you have revenge on the side of the Midshipmen as well. Navy is coming off of a BYE while AF is coming off a scrimmage with a FCS opponent. Navy has played a tougher schedule, played better against that schedule, and has been a better covering team than AF as well. NAVY wins 31-21.
 
MIN +0 at KC
Could this be gambling suicide by putting the Purple in lock of the week status? I don't think so. So they are 0-3, but really have played pretty well against 3 likely playoff teams. I guess I don't see it as a sky is falling type of start. Obviously, blowing 3 halftime leads is not ideal and starting 0-2 at home sucks...but if they string a couple of wins together vs. a couple of bad teams (KC and ARI) they would be right back at 2-3 and feeling okay. If Purple team would have beat SD and DET and lost to KC and ARI to get to 2-3 that way would we feel the same way? No. KC is a train wreck, in fact I'm hearing all the Kirk Ferentz rumors starting again already as Todd Haley seems to be on his way out. Would Ferentz turn down the cash again and a team with Andrew Luck to escape the hell-hole that is Iowa City? The Cheifs were bad at full strength, then they lost Berry and Charles and might lose to Alabama striaght up if they played. The gave it everything they had left in noe final attempt last week against SD, but once again they fell short. It's over for that club, and the Purple are in 110% desperation mode...even more so than last week. PURPLE WIN 24-10.
 
HEADSCRATCHER OF THE WEEK

I finally misfired on one of these last week. I called out UAB over ECU as a questionable pick and UAB covered. How did that happen...well, ECU turned it over 7! times and still won the game 28-23!! I'm still very anti-Blazer, if you can force 7 turnovers and be at a +4 and still lose you must be terrible. This week I'm going to call out Cole Peyton and his SMU +11.5 at TCU pick. SMU is 3-1, but it's a fluffy 3-1. I liked them a lot coming into the year, but they look like some of June Jones' early HAW teams where they blow the pants off of nobody team (NWST, MEM) struggle against low level competition (28-17 win over UTEP) and get their doors blown off against the good opponents (A&M 46-14). TCU is still on the "kill everyone by 100" tour that started after they lost the opener to BAY. TCU at home is a very very very tough beat, and I just don't see 11.5 being nearly enough. TCU WINS 45-20.

GOOD LUCK ON THAT ACE

 
Solo plays for the week...some brave guesstimates out there this week:

GT-PITT
JH-PSU VS. JG-IND
CP-SYR
GT-TEM
JG-UK
SS-WF (I really like this one)
MR-TN
TN-CIN
MC-EMU
MT-NEV
CP-SMU
MC-AZ VS. JH-USC
CP-WASU VS. JG-COL
SS-UCONN
AW-MSU VS. GT-OHIOST
SS-WV
RO-NILL
JG-BAY VS. GR-KST (side bet potential?!?!)(make up for SC-NAVY?!?)
MC-SJST
MC-ARKST
JR-VT
MC-DUKE
JH-WIS (booooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!)
AW-PUR
MT-ASU
LW-UCLA VS. SS-STAN (more side bet potential??)

NFL

GR-DAL (I like this one for some reason)
JH-NO VS. MC-JAC
MT-TEN
LW-CIN (love the anti-BUF pick, good call)
JH-PHI
LW-SD
LW-TB

BIG GAMES...BIG OPINIONS

A&M-ARK (+3)

A&M comes off one of the largest disappointments of the year in their epic collapse against OKST. The Hogs come in off a tough loss to ALA in which the Tide scored multiple TD's in every phase of the game. Personally, I still think my ARK pick last week was solid...I didn't expect a Pick-6, Fake FG TD, and a PR TD...that sucked. My A&M pick of last week still seems like the right side to me considering all the factors going into the game. I think where it went wrong for them was the inexperience in big games. OKST played in a few large ones last year and A&M really didn't because expectations were low for them with their brutal start last season. So now they have to rebound and play in the Jerry Dome against Jerry's alma mater...this doesn't look good. Not to mention that as soon as next year these 2 will be conference rivals, so I'm thinking ARK wants to relay the message from the rest of the SEC to the Aggies about what they might be in for in the coming years. When in doubt take the SEC team in a non-conference game...especially when they are incorrectly getting points!! HOGS ROLL 38-28.

MSU-OHIOST (-3)

2 good teams from last year that look a little less than good in 2011. I still think the Sparty loss to ND was a bit of a fluke, but OHIOST was beatdown by the Canes, that was legit. Doesn't it seem crazy that this line is only 3 at the once mighty Buckeyes? But when you can't throw the ball at all, then it's tough to score points. In this day and age of college football, throwing the ball can get you to the title. The running game is great and important, but if you can't throw at all you are not an elite team. So OHIOST can't throw...this has been proven. Sparty can do both as a balanced offense. But the big thing with OHIOST is always the defense. Does the D show up and shut down Sparty in this one? I'm torn on this game, but I need to give a big opinion, so here it is: BUCKEYES WIN AN UGLY ONE 17-11.

CLEM-VT(-7)

I'm going solo on this one with 3 of you on the CLEM train after a couple of impressive wins. Why VT? They haven't been playing that well, but they haven't had to with their schedule. CLEM just went through 2 emotional wins over AUB and FSU and now hits the road for the 1st time in a tricky little spot called Blacksburg. At night, it's almost impossible to beat the Hokies in this atmosphere. And they have the greatest entrance in all of college sports. If I could get YOUTUBE to work right now I'd give you a link, but just search Virginia Tech entrance and you'll see it...electric. It will be nuts and HOKIES WIN 27-17.

ALABAMA-FLORIDA (+5)

Another game that I had a really hard time with this week. I think the Gators are back enough to make this interesting in the Swamp. But ALA is so well coached and so well prepared that I don't trust a Chuck Weis offense to really do a lot of damage against them. Both squads played extremely well last week, and come in off of big wins. You know that there will be plenty of D in this one with 2 of the top 5 D's in the nation matching up - but I think ALA's experience will guide them through this one...TIDE WIN 23-16.

NEB-WIS (-9.5)

This is kind of a big one. The two media favorites in the Big Ten before the year started finally meet in Madison for the first real challenge of the year for both teams. On paper, I'm calling the 2 teams about even. I know Becky has housed everyone in their path while NEB has struggled a bit, but I think talent wise I would put them on an even scale...which is why 9.5 points doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Angry Bo will be out as the Baaaaaadgers always seem to get the breaks when playing at home. But in the end...

Becky survives but doesn't cover the number...BECKY 27-24.

MN-MICH (-20.5)

I guess Coach Kill is back after what sounded like it was going to be a longshot. MarQuies is banged up and sounds very questionable at this point, so we might be starting the ginger kid and playing him the whole game. Shortell honestly still gives us a shot in this game, but to expect a true Freshman to go in and win the Jug in front of 100K+ is silly. MICH still doesn't look overly impressive to me, but the Gophs have lots of issues right now and I'm not sure we'll work them all out on the road this week. Confidence is low...optimism is high for a decent product by the end of the year. MICHIGAN WINS 38-14. Suck.

NFL RUNDOWN

DET-DAL: I think Lions are on letdown and even though DAL looked terrible, I think they win.

CAR-CHI: Like the Panthers in this spot, Bears just played Pack and have DET and MIN in next 2 weeks after this...they are looking past a decent CAR team getting 7. Bears win a squeaker.

NO-JAC: Thought 9 was too much, but I didn't like it enough to pick it.

TEN-CLE: No Kenny Britt = no offense in TEN...CLE at home owes me one after the Suicide disaster.

BUF-CIN: Everyone loves the Bills...danger! danger! danger!...take CIN at home +3.

MIN-KC: Purple Pride!!!

SF-PHI: SF has been a surprise, but PHI off the NYG disaster is the pick here at -10.

WAS-STL: I think WAS is better and STL has a bye next week so they'll roll into it at 0-4.

PIT-HOU: Torn on this one. PIT with points has always been a solid bet, but they feel different this year. I'm going Texans.

ATL-SEA: TJack to win 2 in a row? No chance. Take ATL.

NYG-ARI: we have 5 on NYG and zero on ARI...I like the Cards at +1.5. I think they upset the G-men.

DEN-GB: The GB lines are going to be crazy all year...I take 14.5 with a bad Broncos team.

NE-OAK: Brady and Belichick off a loss...have to lay the 4.5 vs. an OAK team off a big win over NYJ.

MIA-SD: Think it's too many points, but my Fins are fading fast and coach Mafia will be looking for a new gig soon at a laundromat or seedy restaurant...Chargers with very little confidence.

NYJ-BAL: Tough line at 3.5...I think BAL is the better team and at home so you have to pick them. NYJ are waiting for NE next week.

IND-TB: TB doesn't blow anybody out, hell they will probably be behind in the 4th qtr before another Josh Freeman comeback...take Colts and points.

Finally, since I'm heading to Vegas next week, I figured I need to start shapening up my teaser skills just in case I need to give advice to a random d-bag late Saturday night like last year...so here it is for this week:

6 team teaser - pays 5:1, move the line 6 pts

DEN +20.5

MIA +16

PIT +9

CIN +9

NYJ +9.5

IND +17.5

Play at your own risk.

Enjoy the weekend! Get your picks in on time! Go Get The Jug!!!

Need Week 5 Pick From...

ROE
HEINERT
CORCORAN
M.THOMAS
SETNICKER
L.WENDLANDT
OGE

Please get these to me by NOON TODAY. I'm going to start enforcing this deadline with some force - too many picks have been coming in late on THUR or even on FRI and it's unfair to give you the extra time to look at these. So please try to get them in on TUES/WED/THU morning so we don't have any more issues.

Thanks.

PHI -10 vs. SF

I just wanted to update you on this line, so all lines are now set.

Also, I had typed up a What We Learned - Week 4...but computer froze and lost it. So I guess we learned nothing this week. I'll try and do better next time.

Week 5 Lines

Missing one line right now because of the Vick situation, will send out SF at PHI line when I have it.

USF
PITT 1.5

HOU
UTEP 17

UTST
BYU -9

A&M
ARK 3

MISST
GEO -8

PSU
IND 17.5

MN
MICH -20.5

RUT
SYR -2.5

TOL
TEM -7

TULANE
ARMY -6

NW
ILL -7

TT
KAN 8

AF
NAVY -3

UK
LSU -28.5

WF
BC 0

BUFF
TN -28.5

CIN
MIAOH 14

AKR
EMU -8

KENT
OHIO -14

NEV
BOISE -27.5

SMU
TCU -11.5

AZ
USC -13.5

WASU
COL -3.5

WMU
UCONN -3

MARSH
LOU -10.5

GT
NCST 10.5

MSU
OHIOST -3

IDAHO
VIR -17.5

BGU
WV -18.5

NILL
CMU 10

BAY
KST 3.5

AUB
SC -11.5

SJST
COLST -3.5

ARKST
WKY 10.5

CLEM
VT -7

TEX
ISU 10

BALLST
OK -38

NTEX
TULSA -22

WASH
UTAH -7.5

FAU
ULL -9

DUKE
FIU -2.5

MEM
MDTN -21

UAB
TROY -15.5

HAW
LT -4

RICE
SOMISS -14.5

ALA
FLA 5

NC
ECU 7

NMST
NM 1.5

NEB
WIS -9.5

ND
PUR 13

OLE
FRES -4.5

OREST
ASU -17

UCLA
STAN -22

NFL

DET
DAL -1.5

CAR
CHI -7

NO
JAC 9

TEN
CLE 0

BUF
CIN 3

MIN
KC 0

SF
PHI

WAS
STL 0

PIT
HOU -3

ATL
SEA 4

NYG
ARI 1.5

DEN
GB -14.5

NE
OAK 4.5

MIA
SD -10

NYJ
BAL -3.5

IND
TB -11.5

Week 4 Review

16 of us were pulling for the Cowboys to convert one of those 6 FG's into a TD to cover the number...but they didn't and Mike Setnicker is the big $100 winner this week atr 12-3. Here are all the results:

Wk4 W L %
MS 12 3 80.0%
JG 11 4 73.3%
MR 10 5 66.7%
SS 10 5 66.7%
MO 10 5 66.7%
JH 10 5 66.7%
GR 9 6 60.0%
MT 9 6 60.0%
JR 8 7 53.3%
MC 8 7 53.3%
RO 8 7 53.3%
TN 8 7 53.3%
CP 8 7 53.3%
LW 8 7 53.3%
MH 7 8 46.7%
GT 6 9 40.0%
AW 5 10 33.3%

We hit 57.6% for the week in total...62% in NCAA and 52% in NFL.

TOTAL YEAR STANDINGS

TOTAL W L %
TN 41 19 68.3%
MR 40 20 66.7%
MS 40 20 66.7%
GR 40 20 66.7%
SS 37 23 61.7%
RO 35 25 58.3%
CP 35 25 58.3%
MH 34 26 56.7%
MO 34 26 56.7%
AW 34 26 56.7%
JR 33 27 55.0%
JG 33 27 55.0%
JH 33 27 55.0%
LW 32 28 53.3%
MC 32 28 53.3%
MT 31 29 51.7%
GT 26 34 43.3%

We are at 57.8% on the year in total. 4 guys at the top separated by only 1 game.

NCAA TOTAL

NCAA W L %
MR 34 11 75.6%
TN 32 12 72.7%
GR 30 12 71.4%
SS 25 12 67.6%
MS 21 11 65.6%
MH 28 17 62.2%
CP 28 17 62.2%
MO 27 17 61.4%
RO 25 16 61.0%
AW 22 16 57.9%
MC 25 20 55.6%
MT 21 17 55.3%
JH 24 20 54.5%
LW 16 16 50.0%
JR 21 21 50.0%
JG 16 18 47.1%
GT 13 18 41.9%

We're at a ridiculous 60.1% on the year in NCAA.

NFL TOTAL

NCAA W L %
MS 19 9 67.9%
JR 12 6 66.7%
JG 17 9 65.4%
LW 16 12 57.1%
TN 9 7 56.3%
JH 9 7 56.3%
GR 10 8 55.6%
AW 12 10 54.5%
RO 10 9 52.6%
SS 12 11 52.2%
CP 7 8 46.7%
MC 7 8 46.7%
MT 10 12 45.5%
GT 13 16 44.8%
MO 7 9 43.8%
MH 6 9 40.0%
MR 6 9 40.0%

We are only 53.4% in NFL on the season, still positive but much lower than our total NCAA performance.


$50 on the line again this week - I'll be sending out the Week 5 lines later today.

SNF Update

Tough slate of late games, but we're down to a 3 man race right now:

JG: done at 11-4
SS: 10-4 with PIT at -12.5 and trailing 13-10
MS: 11-3 with WAS at +5.5 on MNF

It will either be Setnicker's win or we'll push it forward to the next week for $150...what will you pull for?

Late Sunday Update

Lots of great records again so far...at roughly halftime of the 3:00 games here is how we sit:

MO: 10-3
SS: 9-3
JH: 9-3
MS: 8-1
JG: 8-3
MR: 8-3
MT: 8-3
TN: 7-4

Too many options left to list, but I will send out one later tonight after the 3:00 games.

Week 4 Preview

Hands down my favorite DET-MIN moment of all-time...and it happened while we were watching in Vegas, which made it magically delicious. Where have you gone Dan Orlovsky, we miss you and the inept Lions.

Week 4 is upon us in the Football Challenge, and it's the first $100 week, which I know is waking a lot of us up at night in cold sweats and forcing work productivity down this week from low to lower. Yep, the pressure is on, so let's see what we can expect:

TOTAL PICKS 
A couple notes on these - I only have 3 NFL games from ROE and 12 NCAA, waiting to hear back on what will change but I'll list the 15 he gave me anyway, and I'm still waiting on picks from Setnicker...maybe he's still bitter about the final game defeat the E-A-G-L-E-S suffered last week that cost him $50?

JR: NC ND RUT A&M ARK BUFF MISST SC LSU NO BUF CIN OAK BAL TB
JG: FSU MICH KST MIZZ BYU NO BUF BAL CAR DET CLE SF NYJ KC GB
MR: NC MICH MSU NEB A&M RUT ND BOISE ORE LSU ALA FLA DET GB ATL
AW: VIR MICH IND SYR PITT ARMY GEO SJST DET GB ATL CAR CIN ARI DAL
GR: CLEM MICH ORE GEO LSU ALA FLA MISST AUB DET GB BAL TEN NE SD
MH: CLEM MICH ILL OK BYU BOISE ORE ASU LSU OLE BAL NE ATL NYJ CHI
MC: DUKE ILL UAB ARMY BUFF BGU ORE NMST IDAHO UTST GB TEN ARI KC IND
SS: MIA MICH NEB OK ORE LSU ALA SC TEN BAL ATL CAR NO MIN PIT
RO: VIR OKST TT BYU BOISE TROY LSU ALA FLA ATL CAR ARI DET SF MIA
TN: MIZZ UCF ECU ND BGU WMU ORE LSU GEO ARK ARI BAL PIT CHI BUF
MT: VT MICH A&M ASU AZ ALA SC ATL CAR NO MIN GB NYJ SD CIN
GT: MICH NEB PSU CMU BOISE AUB ATL CAR NO SD BAL PIT CHI SF TEN
MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
CP: MICH CIN ND TOL BALLST WY ORE COL USC LSU GB CIN KC OAK JAC
LW: OK BOISE ORE SC FLA GB KC CAR NO PIT TEN MIN NE DAL PHI
JH: FSU MICH NEB ORE SC FLA LSU ALA MISST MIN NE ATL BAL NYJ MIA
MO: VT MSU IOWA TT TEM OHIO SDST ORE LSU ALA MIN ATL MIA SF ARI

Got all that? Sorry for the brutal format of listing these, but it is what it is so deal with it.

CLEAN OUT THE SAVINGS
Locks of the century went 2-0 last week...finally. Not seeing anything as automatic as BOISE last week, but I think this will work out.

SC -15 vs. VANDY
Sorry G-Reg, but all that hope building up with the smaaat kids in Vandy will come crashing down this week on their trip to play the Ol' Ball Coach and the BEAST known as Lattimore. SC coming off a scary win vs. NAVY, which was expected, and VANDY coming off a beat down of OLE MISS, which wasn't expected. In my mind, VANDY is done for the year...they got their token SEC win for the season and they are very content shutting it down and prepping for hoops season. SC has larger aspirations than that. The scary part here is that SC and Spurrier have really struggled against VANDY in the past, so that scares me. But I am going to go out on a limb and guess that VANDY doesn't get 5 picks like they did against OLE MISS, and Lattimore goes for at least the 240 he did last week. SC wins and covers 41-7.

BAL -3.5 at STL
Hated BAL last week, and love them this week. After the meltdown against TEN they will refocus and have their 'A' game ready for the Rams. STL looked like a good play last MNF, but their complete lack of execution and constant penalties lead them to an ugly straight up and ATS loss. This team looks lost right now, and their schedule might push them into a deep, dark hole before we even see Halloween. BAL destroys them this week...BAL 27-10.

HEAD SCRATCHER OF THE WEEK

I've gone 3-0 on these, so I figured I would continue...plus it's too much fun looking for these pictures, so this segment will stick around every week. For week 4, I'll call out Corcoran's pick of UAB +11.5 at ECU. Here's the breakdown, ECU is basically the old Texas Tech in the post-steroid era...they can score, lots, and D is optional. So you may think, why would I give 11.5 as a team that can't play any D? Well, in case you haven't been following the stellar Blazer football program since they lost the great Joe Webb, I will get you up to date for 2011. Game 1 at FLA, not an easy start, but 39-0 losers is kind of a downer. They were outgained by 300 yards. Oh well, expected...on to game 2. Hosting a brutal TULANE team that hasn't exactly been good since the Shaun King days. How bad? Like never more than 3 wins in a season bad and most of those come against FCS teams. So UAB is -11.5 in this one and.....They lose 49-10 and get outgained by 350 yards. So I guess you have the angle that they should be on the rebound after 2 bad performances, but with a team that is averaging only 5 ppg against an offensive juggernaut? I'm not giving them a chance....ECU WINS 49-14.

GOOD LUCK ON THAT ACE

The always popular solo plays for the week - teams that nobody else but you like this week:

CP-CIN (like it)

TN-UCF (I vote Mormon on this one if I had to pick it)

GT-CMU (salty on SPARTY after the collapse last week?)

MO-SDST (I kind of agree, but I hope MICH houses so the Gophs catch 'em off guard next week)

CP-TOL

AW-SYR (head to head ACE games...I like it)

GT-PSU

AW-PITT

MO-IOWA (WHO HATES IOWA!?!)

MH-OLE MISS (dangerous SEC double digit DOG)

MO-TEM (I love MARY this week)

CP-BALLST

MO-OHIO

JG-KST (anti-Cane betting...thanks)

SS-MIA (another mano y mano ACE game...love it) (side bet JG & SS?)

RO-OKST (love love love A&M)

TN-WMU (anti-Zook!)

CP-COL (antyhing against OHIOST is a good pick right now...8-4 baby!)

MC-DUKE

MC-UAB

TN-ECU (matchup of ACE teams...MC vs. TN...only on PPV!)

MC-NMST (I think you have 10 ACE's this week!)

AW-SJST ( AW vs. MC in an ACE game as well...lots of these this week)

RO-TROY

MC-IDAHO

AW-IND

CP-WY

MC-UTST

MT-AZ (they have to rebound sometime, right?!?)

CP-USC (homer pick)

CP-JAC (kind of like this one with the hook at +3.5)

LW-PHI (played it before the line was known...ballsy)

JG-CLE (this will lose)

JR-TB (this will win)

MC-IND (I made this mistake LW...do not pick this team)

BIG GAMES....BIG OPINIONS

Not many great games this week, but defintiely a lot of interesting ones...

SDST-MICH (-8)

Colin Cowherd actually loves the Aztecs this week because...MICH WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO MINNESOTA...wow, even I don't give my squad that much credit. Well, Cowherd is wrong. Brady Hoke will be jacked to play his old squad, or maybe the other way around. Anywho, I think this one has a chance to be close, but Hoke's knowledge of the SDST personnel might give them the edge and frankly I don't think SDST is a top notch club...so I'm going MICH 38 SDST 21 - Wolverines setting themselves up for a nice letdown next week against KILL NATION.

OKST-A&M (-3)

Holy Shootout Batman! Another game with defense optional, which seems to be the majority of the games this side of the SEC in 2011. A&M has a large homefield advantage and I actually think their D could play a role in this game. I'm not thinking they hold the Cowpokes to less than 28 points, but I think they are poised to make a big run this year and winning this one is the first step. OKST just hasn't impressed me this year, I know they score fast and in bunches, but I don't see it continuing without Phil Collins..er, I mean, Dana Holgorsen running the show. More on that guy later. A&M WINS 44-37.

FSU-CLEM (+3)

Line has actually shifted to make CLEM a small favorite in this one. I coulnd't pick it for 2 reasons...FSU has QB injury questions and is coming off a major let down in the OK loss. CLEM beat AUB last week, which is a huge deal in Death Valley, and their coach Dabo Swinney nearly peed his pants in post game interviews he was so excited. Emotional outbursts by coaches need to be reserved for championships, not winning a non-conference game in week 3. So I don't like either team this week, but it is a big game so I'm forced to have a big opinion on it. CLEM getting points is the play in this situation...CLEM WINS 24-21.

ARK-ALA (-12.5)

Highly debated game amongst the Football Challenge worls and the national talking heads this week. The belief is that ALA has stupid good D and ARK's young QB will struggle. I think the equalizer in this situation is Bobby Petrino. As much as I don't like the guy, he's an offensive genius. Even his brother turned around the pathetic Illini offense, so it must run in the family! ALA still hasn't looked outstadning on offense, and I'm not convinced they have the playmakers they had in the past to score mass amounts of points. ARK needs to avoid turnovers and get the ball to the NFL caliber WR's that they have to hang around. I think they do it...ALA WIN BUT DOESN'T COVER 23-14

MIZZ-OK (-21)

OK at home is about as sure of a thing as death and taxes, but 21 points off an emotional win and welcoming in a decent team that is capable of exploding for points? Very scared of taking OK this week (3 of you are not). I think OK starts looking ahead to their next real roadblock (TEXAS) and cruises through this one with an ugly win...BOOMER SOONER 31-21.

LSU-WV (+5)

ESPN and Gameday are heading to Morgantown for the first time ever this Saturday for this one and oh boy are they in for a treat. If you are not familiar with the great University of WV, let me enlighten you:

COACH

Dana Holgorsen is all of this rolled into one. He's an offensive mastermind, a mullet wearing hillbilly, and a lover of the casinos. In other words...the perfect fit for WV Head Ball Coach.

TRADITIONS

Couch burning is a local favorite. It doesn't make sense to me either. But I guess it's what the Morgantown folk love to do...so that's exciting. They are actually putting in a notice this week that all couches must be cleared off of the porches in Morgantown and need to be indoors...because I guess the students won't figure out how to bring them back out to burn them later in the evening? Bizarro.

GEAR

These are Mountaineer fans, and this is what they wear. Once again, in a last ditch effort to appear a little less West Virginia-ey, the school has banned this shirt from the game and are giving out regular WV shirts to anyone who has one and returns it to the book store. Don't try to be something you're not WV, just embrace your inner Hillbilly.

Now that you're up to speed on what we're dealing with, here's my thought on the game. WV has crushed a couple of teams with their crazy good offense and nearly took their foot off the gas too much last week at MARY after being up big early on. LSU plays a little D and might pose quite the challenge for these fellas. Plus they have the grass-eater leading the way, the luckiest coach in the history of football!

Wow, it is going to be quite the scene Saturday night. The pick seems obvious, we have 10 on LSU and 0 on WV...one of those 10 is me. I think the D dominates and the running game puts up enough to cover the number...LSU WINS AND COVERS 27-14.

BISON SUPER BOWL

I hate this game. It's like when I played baseball and we had the Mankato World Series every year...if we blow them out then it's expected, if we win a close one then we must suck, if we lose then sound the alarm because the sky is falling. These games are worthless to everyone except the little guys - why bring in a team that's motivated to beat the local big guy while we're probably more motivated to go to practice next Tuesday than play this little engine that could on Saturday. With that being said, I saw a line of Gophers -9, which I wouldn't touch. So here it is, the Bison have a nice little progrum, they lost 10-9 to the Mase Gophers, and they beat the Brew Gophers 27-21...don't all the haters make it seem like this game was actually like 45-0? That was the worst MN team in my memory against the best Bison team and they beat us by 6 points. So I'm sure it will be close for all of those reasons, but in the end I just want to win this game, go to 2-2, and move on to real games like MICH next week. GOPHERS WIN 28-24.

NFL RUNDOWN

Quick thoughts on each and every game in the NFL...

JAC-CAR: Like Jags with points in the battle of rookie QB's.

DEN-TEN: number has sky-rocketed, would take DEN at 7+, but TEN at -4.5.

HOU-NO: it's about time for the HOU bubble to pop...NO is great at home.

NYG-PHI: Vick playing = NYG losing by a lot.

NE-BUF: 10.5 is a lot for a decent home team, take the points when you can.

MIA-CLE: MIA on the road? Sounds like a winner to me.

SF-CIN: CIN is pretty solid, SF is better than expected, take the home team.

NYJ-OAK: Raiders were jobbed by a bad schedule for last week, they shock the world and win this week

KC-SD: KC spreads are getting out of control already...have to take 16.5.

ATL-TB: I'm the only one on them, but I love TB this week. ATL doesn't look that good to me.

GB-CHI: Bears ALWAYS play GB tough at home, I take 4 and think they win outright.

ARI-SEA: I want to take TJACK so bad, but he's the reason I'm taking ARI.

PIT-IND: INDY = DEAD...PIT crushes.

WAS-DAL: torn on this one, but I think I take points and WARSHINGTON. DAL injuries scare me.

DET (-4!) at PURPLE

Last time the Lions were favored against the Purple in MN was when I was about 6 months old and the dome was only a drawing. Yeah, it's been a while. The whole world is in love with the Lions right now, and rightfully so. They have been the most impressive team in the NFC thus far. The Purple could be 2-0, but have blown 2 second half leads and are 0-2. Desperation has set in, it's a division game, 0-3 is not an option. The FC world is split on this one, which was expected. It seems like all of us are either eternal Purple optimists or haters as soon as the ship spots an iceberg. A win here turns the season around and gives us hope...we really haven't been too far away from a pair of wins. The D will need to make it happen, and DMcRib will need to throw it down the field a bit and give us a chance. You know my theory, if the whole world is saying you'll win, I'd bet against it. If the whole world is saying you're terrible and will lose, I will pick them. Both theories are at work here, so I'm calling PURPLE 24-21.

Enjoy the week - VEGAS countdown for some of us is at T-14 days...

Good Luck!!

Line Update

DAL is -5.5 vs. WAS on MNF. If you have already picked this - this is the line. If you want to add this to your picks in place of one you previously submitted, just let me know.

Nothing on NYG-PHI yet, so I'll go with the consensus line that I have seen at a few places of PHI -7.5.

Again, if you want to add either of these, please let me know.

Thanks.

Need Week 4 Picks from...

BOMB
HEINERT
OLSON
M.THOMAS
G.THOMAS
SETNICKER
LUKE

AND ROE NEEDS SOME MODIFICATIONS - NEED AT LEAST 5 NFL GAMES

PLEASE GET THEM TO ME BY NOON TODAY.

THANKS.

What We Learned - Week 3

Another week in the books, here are some things we've learned through 3 weeks of football.

First, some fun facts. MIZZOU outgained Western Illinois 744-44 last week in their 69-0 win. They outgained them by 700 yards. Wow.

Another fun fact from week 2, road dogs in the NFL in weeks 2 in a matchup of 0-1 teams are 18-3-1 since 2004...one of those losses was STL last night.

The DAL FG in OT rather than a TD saved the books $72M in payouts...this seems insanely high, but it's been reported in multiple spots. The line ended at -3 and this caused a push rather than a DAL cover and win.

BAL was the heaviest bet team ever last week at TEN, according to multiple sources within the sports betting industry. Ever as in ever like including all super bowls and every other lined game ever. Whoops, that's a lot of lost dollars.

NCAA - WHAT WE LEARNED

Once again, look for teams coming off an emotional game, case in point this week is MISS ST and AUB. They played to the final whistle 2 weeks ago and ended it on a goal line stand for an upset AUB win. Both teams were feeling the hangover this week as MISST was smothered by LSU and AUB started hot but ended up running out of gas (and defense) against CLEM. College football is all about emotion, and most of these teams can't rebound for another big game and bring the same intensity 2 weeks in a row.

I misspoke last week when I said that VAN was excluded from the SEC dog principle, because they housed OLE MISS 30-7 on Saturday. It was a turnover festival like I expected, but I didn't see 5 picks for VANDY and an absolute beatdown of OLE MISS. My apologies to VANDY and their #1 fan G-REG. Why is he their #1 fan, he watched them practice once from his hotel room in lovely Nashville and he was instantly a fan for life. It been a rough ride, but maybe they're finally starting to get it.

I continued my hot streak in calling out questionable picks with BC -7.5 hosting DUKE. What did we learn from this? Well, never give a bad number like 7.5 when you classify a team as bad (like BC) no matter how bad their opponent is in a conference game (and DUKE is terrible!). BC didn't only avoid the cover, but they also failed to win straight up and fell to 0-3.

Texas has made a QB change, and they appear to be back. Garrett Gilbert just didn't provide any kind of spark at all in his year plus of service, so when in doubt go to a McCoy. Colt's little bro looks a lot like his big brother, and he's leading this team back to respectability. I will be interested to see that line in Vegas against OK...I might be on the Horns.

Another rule to remember, don't ever take NW as a favorite under any circumstances. They just can't make it work without being the underdog. They have covered one time in the last 2+ years as a favorite. Some teams just don't play well in that role, so only take NW when getting points.

Beware of the sandwich game...SC found this out and nearly lost straight up to NAVY. This was also an emotional let down spot for SC as they pulled out a close win over GEO a week ago. There is no worse team to play on a let down spot than a service academy, because they are the most consistent teams around. A snoozer game for SC between GEO and another SEC tilt with VANDY puts them in a tricky spot...once again, 20 year old kids - they know the schedule, they know where the big games are, and it's very difficult for them to get up back to back weeks...especially as a big fav with someone like NAVY coming to town.

Luke Fickell needs to sharpen up his resume. I called this the moment after they named him the interim coach, but he will be long gone after this season. When will team get it that you should NEVER hire a long time internal assistant to coach your team when the HC leaves. It just doesn't work - they were an assistant for a reason. It was hard to watch on Saturday as the Buckeyes threw for 14 yards...14. They look unmotivated and ready for the next regime to begin. Obviously, this will be a lost season, but how bad can it get? I think they lose 4 or 5, which is like 3-4 years worth of losses for Sweatervest. Ouch.

UTAH-BYU is a huge rivalry game that was moved up to week 3 since the 2 are not in the same conference any longer. I couldn't believe the -6.5 number that was put on BYU. They were coming off an emotional loss to TEX and UTAH just lost to USC. So we'll call that a push. But power rating wise these teams are equal, so if anything BYU should have been a slight favorite. But then you realize that points are worth double in rivalry games because they always tend to be close and UTAH was looking for revenge after losing last year to BYU...this was a no-brainer pick. I didn't see 54-10 coming, but UTAH is an equal if not better team than BYU so getting nearly a full TD was a gimme. Rivalry games are crazy like that, taking points seems to be the right spot in most of them assuming the dog is competant and not in Dick-Rod MICH vs. OHIOST position.

OKLAHOMA made the first real statement of the season on Saturday night. Winnning on the road is not something they have done a lot of over the years. FSU was determined to get back on the map with a big win, and OK absorbed the fluky TD the Noles used to tie the game and they answered right back and went on to dominate with their D and win the game. Their ease in winning surprised me. They could be the one to end the SEC streak of National Titles. I'll give them 2 more chances to lose...TEXAS and at OKST to end the year. They won't lose at home...ever. At BAY looks like their only other challenge, but I don't give them a chance at the upset. OK vs. LSU/ALA has to be the odds on favorite right now for the NC Game.


NFL-WHAT WE LEARNED

If the whole world loves a team (BAL) the best bet is to go against it. 13 guys on BAL last week, me on TEN. The whole world saw their domination of PIT and decided that they couldn't lose. TEN is a nice team who played poorly at JAC in week 1. The contrarian view can win you a lot of games in the NFL - if you can figure out the public's perception you can find some really good values.

Along those same lines, you should like teams coming off of big ATS losses (by 10 or more) and fade teams off big ATS wins (by 10 ore more). It's not 100% fool proof, like all these theories, but when worked in with a combination of other factors it can help lead you the right direction. Examples: ATL (killed by CHI, beats PHI); TB (lose big at home to DET, beat MN); CHI (crush ATL, get crushed by NO); WAS (crush NYG, fail to cover vs. ARI); NYG (killed by WAS, beat STL); BAL...; CLE (looked terrible vs. CIN, beat INDY easily); PIT (bad vs. BAL, house SEA); BUF (crush KC, fail to cover vs. OAK) Like I said, it's not automatic, but another thing to watch for when trying to pick some of these NFL games and figure out what kind of team you're going to get each week. Emotion is not as critical as NCAA, but it still plays a part in the NFL.

Similar to the BC-DUKE game, never give a bad number with a team who isn't very good...VIKES. -3.5 is just an awful number when you consider TB will likely make a comeback like they do every week and MIN can't really score many points anyway. Plus TB was coming in off a big ATS loss to DET...equals bad things for PURPLE TEAM.

The WEST to EAST games went 2-2, a surprisingly good showing for the west teams in this usually awful situation for them. OAK covered by 1 at BUF, BUF came out flat after the huge W in week 1. ARI also covered at WAS, which follows the same principle as WAS was in a sandwich game between the big NYG win and this week's DAL MNF. I missed that one. That's why you have to have many things factored in before picking a team. 1 guiding principle can not get you consistent winners, but combining lots of these kinds of factors should lead you to that elusive 55-60% number.

That's all I have for this week - let me know, if you'd like to share, what trends or other things you have learned this year that might help us all out. I know it's a competition, but I think it's worth sharing little tips and situations to look for to help us all grow our bankrolls. My goal is to eventually get us all out to VEGAS and counting our money some weekend in the future!!

I think we've done a great job so far with the picks for the year - I know the tough weeks will be coming, but let's keep picking winners!

$100 on the line this week - so it's a good time to post your best record of the year!

Week 4 Lines

Here are the numebrs for week 4, 2 games are not listed yet due to QB injury questions...NYG at PHI and WAS at DAL - I will send these out when they are available.

NCST
CIN -7

UCF
BYU -3.5

NC
GT -6

CMU
MSU -24

SDST
MICH -8

TOL
SYR -3

EMU
PSU -28

ND
PITT 6

SMU
MEM 23

ULM
IOWA -17.5

GEO
OLE 10

TEM
MARY -9

BGU
MIAOH -6

ARMY
BALLST 3

OHIO
RUT -4.5

KST
MIA -13

OKST
A&M -3

UCLA
OREST -3

FSU
CLEM 3

SOMISS
VIR -3

CAL
WASH -3

VT
MARSH 18.5

WMU
ILL -12

ARK
ALA -12.5

COL
OHIOST -14.5

TULANE
DUKE -10.5

UAB
ECU -11.5

NMST
SJST -10.5

MDTN
TROY -12.5

FRES
IDAHO 6

UCONN
BUFF 10

ULL
FIU -16.5

LT
MISST -18

FLA
UK 17

FAU
AUB -32.5

UTEP
USF -28

RICE
BAY -18

VAN
SC -15

NEV
TT -21

IND
NTEX 7.5

NEB
WY 22.5

TULSA
BOISE -32.5

COLST
UTST -6.5

MIZZ
OK -21

LSU
WV 5

ORE
AZ 13.5

USC
ASU -3

NFL

JAC
CAR -3.5

DEN
TEN -4.5

HOU
NO -5

DET
MIN 4

NYG
PHI

NE
BUF 10.5

MIA
CLE -2.5

SF
CIN 0

NYJ
OAK 3.5

BAL
STL 3.5

KC
SD -16.5

ATL
TB 0

GB
CHI 4

ARI
SEA 3

PIT
IND 12.5

WAS
DAL

Week 3 Review

We got our first push of the season with a 3-way tie at the top:

SETNICKER: 11-4
J.ROLLINS: 11-4
G.ROLLINS: 11-4

See the theme there...

WEEKLY RESULTS

WK3 W L %
JR 11 4 73.3%
GR 11 4 73.3%
MS 11 4 73.3%
MR 10 5 66.7%
AW 10 5 66.7%
TN 10 5 66.7%
CP 10 5 66.7%
JG 9 6 60.0%
SS 9 6 60.0%
RO 9 6 60.0%
MH 8 7 53.3%
LW 8 7 53.3%
MT 8 7 53.3%
MC 7 8 46.7%
MO 7 8 46.7%
GT 7 8 46.7%
JH 7 8 46.7%

7-8 is not a disaster, everyone did okay this week. 59.6% in total for all of us: a staggering 65% in NCAA and 53% in NFL.

TOTAL STANDINGS

TOTAL W L %
TN 33 12 73.3%
GR 31 14 68.9%
MR 30 15 66.7%
AW 29 16 64.4%
MS 28 17 62.2%
MH 27 18 60.0%
RO 27 18 60.0%
SS 27 18 60.0%
CP 27 18 60.0%
JR 25 20 55.6%
LW 24 21 53.3%
MO 24 21 53.3%
MC 24 21 53.3%
JH 23 22 51.1%
MT 22 23 48.9%
JG 22 23 48.9%
GT 20 25 44.4%

3 guys are up over 66%...that's pretty amazing.

NCAA STANDINGS
NCAA W L %
TN 26 8 76.5%
MR 26 9 74.3%
GR 23 10 69.7%
CP 23 12 65.7%
SS 19 10 65.5%
AW 19 11 63.3%
MH 22 13 62.9%
RO 20 12 62.5%
MO 20 14 58.8%
MS 15 11 57.7%
MC 20 15 57.1%
JR 18 15 54.5%
MT 16 15 51.6%
JH 17 18 48.6%
LW 13 14 48.1%
GT 11 14 44.0%
JG 12 17 41.4%

59.5% for the year in NCAA...I'd call that WINNING.

NFL STANDINGS

NFL W L %
MS 13 6 68.4%
GR 8 4 66.7%
AW 10 5 66.7%
TN 7 4 63.6%
JG 10 6 62.5%
LW 11 7 61.1%
JH 6 4 60.0%
JR 7 5 58.3%
RO 7 6 53.8%
MH 5 5 50.0%
SS 8 8 50.0%
GT 9 11 45.0%
MT 6 8 42.9%
MR 4 6 40.0%
CP 4 6 40.0%
MC 4 6 40.0%
MO 4 7 36.4%

54.2% in total on the NFL for the year, once again still WINNING.

Week 4 lines will be coming later today.

Week 3 Monday Update

Vick went down and the Eagles went with him, unfortunately for Setnicker. So regardless of what happens tonight we already have 2 guys done at 11-4, and nobody can beat that mark for this week. The weekly prize will carry over to next week, so $100 will be on the line for Week 4.

Full recap coming tomorrow with all the lines for week 4.

SNF Update

Setnicker is sitting in 1st at 11-3, an EAGLES -1 win tonight and he is the weekly champ, if ATL cover at +1 it will be a push for the week. Lots of nice numbers this week, currently at 141-96 in total.

Week 3 Preview

This will be the seen tonight as Week 3 of the Football Challenge kicks off in Starkville to the sound of 20,000 cowbells and a great Thursday night SEC battle.

17 guys - all in on time this week...nice work fellas! Here's what it looks like for the 5 days ahead:

JR: WV CIN UCF NAVY OHIO BOISE TCU UTAH FLA TEN WAS IND DAL CIN ATL
JG: MN TEX UCONN PITT EMU NILL DAL ATL SEA JAC OAK CAR CLE KC NE
MR: GT MN WIS TT OK CIN ND BOISE USC ALA JAC WAS BAL PHI NYG
AW: MN WIS OK BOISE ALA LSU AUB OLE DAL ATL CLE NE MIN CHI HOU
GR: WIS MSU OK OKST BOISE WASH ASU STAN LSU ATL NE CHI BAL NYG TB
MH: BC WIS MSU MN IOWA NEB OK BOISE LSU AUB ATL NE BAL MIN IND
MC: ILL CIN UCF UAB OHIO BGU WMU BOISE COLST NEV BAL CHI CLE KC ARI
SS: MARY WIS MN BOISE TCU STAN USC BAL KC NE MIN DAL HOU NO GB
RO: NEB PSU OKST TEX BOISE STAN USC UTAH FLA BAL NE HOU GB PHI BUF
TN: FSU WIS MSU WV HOU NAVY BOISE WASH FLA LSU BAL MIN DAL CLE PIT
MT: FSU MARY WIS MN IOWA TEX AUB MISST CLE PHI KC ARI NYG SEA CAR
GT: WIS MN MSU PSU PITT PHI NYG SEA BAL DAL TB OAK DET DEN SD
MS: GT IOWA TEX SYR BOISE MISST PHI BAL OAK DET ARI CAR NE HOU NO
CP: MIA MSU ILL ARMY TEM WASH USC COL UCLA LSU PHI BAL NYG DAL MIN
LW: OK A&M USC NTEX SC PHI BAL DAL MIN NE CLE KC PIT GB CIN
JH: WIS PSU NEB A&M TCU STAN SC LSU FLA ARK BAL DAL NE GB NYG
MO: WIS MSU MN WV HOU BOISE STAN AUB ALA IDAHO BAL DAL GB CHI MIA

13 was the winner in week 1, 11 won in week 2, what will it take in week 3?



ALL IN ON THESE GAMES

In NCAA I'm ALL IN this week on BOISE -17.5 at TOLEDO. BOISE minus anything is not a bad play...ever. This week they only have to cover 2.5 TD's, and they are playing a team that would have been able to call off the season and be content if they would have won over OHIOST last week. But they came close, and from what we know about little guys that almost knock off a big guy only to lose a heartbreaker...they get hung over the next week, like 3 bottles of wine on a Tuesday hung over. So I know TOLEDO is a nice little squad, but to get up 2 weeks in a row is not going to happen. What did BOISE do last week...BYE, another sure fire sign of a good bet. A great coach coming off a BYE in a potentially tough road game. Mark it down...BOSIE WINS 44-17.

In NFL, yep, 2 locks of the century from now on, I don't say it or think it often but I love the COWBOYS. DAL is -2.5 at SF. SF beat TJACK last week, so that's like coming off a BYE. DAL should have beat NYJ last week if Romo wouldn't have made a couple of brutal plays late. This DAL team is pretty solid, and this 49er team is praying for 15 more losses and a certain new Stanford QB on the roster next year. DAL will roll in this one because they are that much better and they are desperate...'BOYS WIN 34-10.

HEAD SCRATCHER OF THE WEEK

I'm 2-0 in calling out questionable selections this year, so let the run continue. Picture this, Team 1 has lost to a 1AA team and been housed by a good BCS team. Team 2 has lost at home to a decent BCS team and got crushed on the road at a mid-major and is missing their best player for the 3rd week in a row. Team 2 is favored by 7.5. It's not so much that I don't like HEINERT'S pick of BC over DUKE this week, it's just a questioning of why this game? Both of these teams have looked worse than awful so far and this seems to be one of the most unpredictable games on the slate this week. How BC can be giving 7.5 to anyone this side of LeRoy-Ostrander I do not know. Good Luck Mark - if you actually watch this game you should get a trophy!

GOOD LUCK ON THAT ACE...

Who's living dangerously this week?

JG-UCONN (love this pick!!)

JG-EMU

MC-BGSU

CP-TEMPLE (shocked that nobody else is on this one)

MC-WMU (I like CMU here)

AW-OLE MISS (over/under on turnovers in this game at 9)

MH-BC

MC-COLST

CP-COL (I favor the BUFFS here...sorry MC)

CP-UCLA (Pac-12 homer pick)

MR-ND (ballsy, but I like it)

MR-TT (they were my 16th game)

CP-ARMY

JG-NILL (Becky Hate is alive and well, I actually love this pick this week)

MC-NEV

MC-UAB

MO-IDAHO

GR-ASU (how can you pick against the ZOOKER!?)

JH-ARK

LW-NTEX (+46!! Take a knee!!!! Run the clock!!)

CP-MIA (only on brave enough to bet the Ineligi-Bowl)

MS-SYR

NFL

JR-TEN (only 13 of you on BAL!!)

RO-BUF (I like it, OAK on a short week and cross country road trip for 12:00 game, nice pick)

GT-DEN (WWTD, what would Tebow do)

MO-MIA (love this pick, they win outright over HOU this week)

GT-SD

UPSET ALERT

These went a stellar 1-5 last week in straight up wins, but we'll try again...large dogs that could win outright so bet the moneyline!!

CMU +6.5 at WMU

MSU +5.5 at ND

NILL +16 at WIS

UTAH +6.5 at BYU

AZ +10 hosting STAN

TEN +4 hosting BAL

CIN +5.5 at DEN

6 for 6 would rock, but I'd take 3 for 6 and still be ahead.

BIG GAMES...BIG OPINIONS

Chiming in on the biggest and best games of the weekend, and a couple that don't:

LSU-MISSST +3

Cowbells are coming off a letdown at AUB, Tigers are off a scrimmage with a 1AA team...I'll take LSU in a slugfest, remember this is still a good home SEC dog...LSU 21-17.

MSU-ND -5.5

Sparty is off to their typical quick start, ND is being ND. 10 turnovers, 5 of those in the redzone...unreal. Will the trend stop this week and the Irish put it all together? I don't think I would bet on it...MSU 34-31.

TN-FLA -8.5

This could be good, and I was actually thinking this number was way too high earlier this week. Then I watched the CIN-TN game from last week late one evening, and totally changed my mind. TN has the offense, there is not doubt. The Gators might have the offense, I think that's still TBD. But on the other side of the ball it's a huge mismatch. Gators D is athletically top 3 in the nation and they have a defensive minded HC. TN is a major work in progress and I woulnd't trust them to stop Granada Huntley at this point. The lack of line movement leads me to believe this is correct and GATORS WILL ROLL 38-14.

OHIOST-MIA -2.5

Funny how this game is so far off the radar this week that I kind of forgot it was even happening. The 2 biggest cheaters of the off-season full of scandal meet in Miami. I still don't think UFC wannabe Luke Fickell is worth a damn as a coach and their talent isn't as elite with all the losses. Miami I think is desperate, they are getting their QB back, they have a good coach, and they are coming off a tough loss and a BYE week. Everything is pointing Canes in this one so I'll say MIAMI WINS 27-21.

OK-FSU +3.5

Noles are seeking revenge for the beatdown they took in Norman last year and finally trying to get the win they have been looking for over the last 8 years to say FSU Football is back. OK going on the road, where they are historically not good, with one of the best teams in the nation off a convincing win and a BYE week. I like Stoops and I'll put him in the "good coach" category that takes advantage of an extra week of prep for a big game. FSU still doesn't feel like a legit Top 5-8 team like some people keep telling me. Getting points at home feels like a good play, but it's also their first real game after going through 2 walkthroughs the last couple of weeks. Taking OK on the road is a sure way to bankruptcy, but I'm doing it...BOOMER SOONER WINS 35-24.

MIAOH at GOPHERS -3

Sounds like Coach Kill will be back and hopefully the team will be as well. I fell like they will play better this week after the disappointing performance last Saturday. MIAOH is better than NMST, and they are coming in off a BYE. Not a lot of analysis on this one this week...I think the Gophers rebound and MIAOH'S 1st year coach on the road runs into the emotional buzzsaw of Coach Kill's return...GOPHERS WIN 27-17.

NFL

TB at PURPLE -3.5

Well, they better win this one or it could be a long year. Not that this is an easy game, but starting 0-2 can be hazardous to your health. Josh Freeman and TB always keep it close, so you know it will be a nailbiter, which is why I don't think anyone in their right mind can give 3.5 this week...PURPLE WIN 21-20.

Other NFL thoughts...really thought about giving the 14.5 with PIT this week. Good team that was embarassed, SEA traveling cross country for an early game, TJACK against Tomlin D...but I HATE giving that many point in any game so I abstained but don't think it's a bad pick.

The whole world (at least the FOOTBALL CHALLENGE) loves BAL this week at TEN -4 after last week's beatdown of PIT. That is precisely why I'm going the other way. BAL put everything into that game including running up the score uneccessarily, which Tomlin won't forget. TEN looked terrible against JAC, which is all the more reason to love them this week. BAL is not as good as they looked, TEN is not as bad as they looked and they are more focused for this week sitting at 0-1. If Fisher was the coach I would LOVE LOVE LOVE them this week, but I think Munchak will get the job done.

WAS will go 2-0. ARI is not that good, and WAS will play them tough this week. Another west coast heading east for an early game play. LOVE WASH this week.

OAK at BUF - yet another west coast heading east for an early game. OAK was impressive last week as was BUF. OAK is on a short week and travelling cross-country and playing a noon game. Too many things against them here...take BUF or abstain.

CHI-NO - Bears are not as good as they looked and it will be proven this week in NO. I wouldn't give 8, but love it in a tease down to -2!!

CLE-IND - The Browns cost this guy his suicide pool last week, they didn't look good. IND was embarassed and is anxious to prove they have something without Peyton. Love them at +3 at home this week.

KC-DET -9.5! I know KC is bad and DET is pretty good, but 9.5!!??!? Feels heavy to me, not that I like KC at all, but I don't think it should be that big.

CIN-DEN -5.5 - CIN plays D, and hopefully Dalton is out again so Gradkowski can play. DEN looked worse than any team in the league, in my opinion, last week. How do they score on this CIN D? Answer...they don't. BUNGALS win outright.

HOU-MIA +2.5 - You know I like the Fins...they win this one over a HOU team that still hasn't stopped slapping themselves on the back after last week.

SD-NE -7 - Brady in the regular season...unreal. SD typically plays them well, so I stayed away, but it looks like a lot of NE love from this crew.

PHI-ATL +1 - dogfight in ATL...ATL is desperate and Vick will be overwhelmed. ATL wins.

STL-NYG -4.5 - I was surprised on how much love there was for NYG this week, but I kind of agree. STL is a walking injury report, and NYG are getting healthy and desperate at home...NYG win and cover.

And I'm spent. Good Luck this week guys - hope everyone is able to tune in tonight to LSU-MISST, should/could be a classic.

Need Week 3 Picks from...

ROE
CORCORAN
M.THOMAS
SETNICKER
LUKE W.

Please send them over by NOON today.

Thanks.

STL at NYG (-4.5)

Here's the final line for the week that was missing before.

Week 3 Lines

Send me your 15 games by NOON THURSDAY...5 NCAA, 5 NFL, 5 more from either NCAA or NFL.

No line yet on STL at NYG due to Bradford injury. I will send it when I have it.

LSU
MISST 3

ISU
UCONN -4.5

BOISE
TOL 17.5

WV
MARY 0

EMU
MICH -29

WY
BGU -8.5

PSU
TEM 10

AUB
CLEM -4

PITT
IOWA -3

CMU
WMU -6.5

OLE
VAN 1

KAN
GT -14

DUKE
BC -7.5

COLST
COL -9.5

ULM
TCU -27.5

TEX
UCLA 3

MSU
ND -5.5

VIR
NC -10.5

TT
NM 19

NW
ARMY 9.5

MIAOH
MN -3

TN
FLA -8.5

NILL
WIS -16

WASH
NEB -18

AKR
CIN -30

NEV
SJST 5.5

ARKST
VT -26

TULANE
UAB -11.5

UCF
FIU 4

NAVY
SC -18

WASU
SDST -7

IDAHO
A&M -37

ASU
ILL 1.5

HOU
LT 7.5

KENT
KST -14.5

BUFF
BALLST -4.5

LOU
UK -7

MARSH
OHIO -2

TROY
ARK -24.5

NTEX
ALA -46

OHIOST
MIA -2.5

SYR
USC -14.5

OK
FSU 3.5

UTEP
NMST -2

UTAH
BYU -6.5

HAW
UNLV 19.5

OKST
TULSA 14

STAN
AZ 10

NFL

SEA
PIT -14.5

BAL
TEN 4

JAC
NYJ -12

ARI
WAS -4

OAK
BUF -4

TB
MIN -3.5

CHI
NO -8

GB
CAR 11.5

CLE
IND 3

KC
DET -9.5

DAL
SF 2.5

CIN
DEN -5.5

HOU
MIA 2.5

SD
NE -7

PHI
ATL 1

STL
NYG

What we learned

Things we got right, things we got wrong, and things that we think we now know that can help line our pockets.

- SEC home dogs (not counting VANDY) are lethal. MISS ST. is a better team than AUB, but AUB was motivated and the talent level on a bad AUB team is still crazy high relative to a down year at a lesser school. Motivation in college football is a key, and AUB had it on Saturday and won outright as a big home dog.

- Don't fall for the hype of a close call against a perceived good team. This applies to most of us on our Gophers bet from last week. They looked great in the 2nd half against a USC team that we all saw as elite. The truth is that they are a very average USC team and our 2nd half performance was more of a fluke than anything. I told myself coming into this year that this Gopher squad was going to be below average, year 1 of a coach at a school like this always is. But obviously, I wanted to believe after the USC game and bought in thinking NMST was bad enough for us to house them. The truth is that we're not there yet, not even close. This team will be better the 2nd half of the year than they are now, but this year as a whole will be a struggle. New schemes, new QB, lack of depth, and frankly a lack of talent in some spots will keep the Gophs as a wildcard team each week. They will have moments where they step up and play with or even beat a WIS or IOWA, but they will also have lapses like we saw on Saturday. Everyone was excited and hoping the Kill program was accelerated after USC, but we should no better than to react to 1 half like that.

- ALABAMA has an NFL defense...a good NFL defense. On Kiper's big board of the top 150 for next year's draft, ALA D has 8 guys!! This is ridiculous. I still didn't hate my PSU bet, because I think they have a great D as well and if the turnovers fall a different way they would have covered...but ALA is unreal. If they don't turn it over and put up a few points they shouldn't lose.

- Great teams bounce back from an embarassing performance. Case in point this week = TCU. They were undressed by RG3 and they came out at AF this week and housed. Good coaching, good players, and motivation = bet on this team. The anti to this is ND. A great team would have bounced back from the USF debacle and housed a less talented MICH team that is going through a transition. But they didn't, ND played the same as last week and lost. All the 10 win predictions for this team are insane, considering they only have about 2 gimmes on the slate.

- OREGON minus anything against a slower team is a good bet. Put them against a fast D (AUB, LSU) and they struggle. But when they are faster, look out. They threw up 69 against NEV this week and I bet this isn't the last time they hit 60+ this year.

- Don't let huge 1st week scoring numbers fool you. CIN put up 72 in week 1 against Austin Peay, and their line at TN last week opened at +6.5 and shrunk to +4.5. I like the talent, but seriously, getting less than a TD at a good SEC team? Lines like this just don't make sense. If CIN would have struggled with Austin Peay, they would have been a 10-14 pt dog at least and not have been taking on "smart" money. You better really believe in a team to take them at an SEC opponent.

- Gators are back? I'm still not sure. They look like they are competant once again on offense under Chuck Weis and the D, as always, is outstanding. But are they back...we'll know after this week.

- 1st year HC on the road at a FAV are dangerous. Example, NILL at KAN. KAN was horrible last year, NILL was great. NILL looked impressive with new coach Doeren in game 1, KAN looked okay. NILL is favored by 5.5 at KAN...it's a trap. 1st year coaches (especially small schools) on the road as FAVs early in their 1st year are not a good bet. KAN wins 45-42.

- Emotional hangover teams are great to bet against. This is not a new concept, but worth repeating. My exmaple for this week is MDTN, who almost had a big win over PUR in week 1 but lost on a last second FG. That emotional hangover carried over as they were +11 at home against GT. GT came in and housed them 49-21.

NFL

- Points are at a premium. PURPLE +9 and BILLS +7 were the biggest dogs on our slate and both covered. Once you get into the double digits it gets even more interesting. Beating any NFL team by 2 TD's or more is hard to do. The favorite needs motivation to make this happen, which isn't there every week. You have been warned.

- IND is one of the worst teams in the league without Peyton. Not much else to say about that.

- Don't pick average teams in a Suicide Pool. CLE, KC, DEN are the prime examples of this. Especially in week 1, take a playoff team that will win - I didn't do this...damn you Colt McCoy!!

- You have to pass to win. 39 yards passing...wow, didn't see that one coming. Look at all the crazy passing numbers from week 1 - Purple must improve this a lot to win games. I still like them, the D is fine and AD will get his yards, but DMc needs to be better and the receivers need to be better. SD is really good, and I expected them to win - but the statistical joke of 39 passing yards seems like we played this game in 1941. Purple will be fine, all the panic will stop with a better game this week.

- MIA will still be a nice team this year. NE is the outlier - Brady is ridiculous and they would have beat anyone last night. I think Henne looked nice, the Fins offense is nice, and the defense can be really good. They will continue to surprise people in the AFC, just not NE.

Week 3 lines coming soon.