Week 4 is upon us in the Football Challenge, and it's the first $100 week, which I know is waking a lot of us up at night in cold sweats and forcing work productivity down this week from low to lower. Yep, the pressure is on, so let's see what we can expect:
TOTAL PICKS
A couple notes on these - I only have 3 NFL games from ROE and 12 NCAA, waiting to hear back on what will change but I'll list the 15 he gave me anyway, and I'm still waiting on picks from Setnicker...maybe he's still bitter about the final game defeat the E-A-G-L-E-S suffered last week that cost him $50?
JR: NC ND RUT A&M ARK BUFF MISST SC LSU NO BUF CIN OAK BAL TB
JG: FSU MICH KST MIZZ BYU NO BUF BAL CAR DET CLE SF NYJ KC GB
MR: NC MICH MSU NEB A&M RUT ND BOISE ORE LSU ALA FLA DET GB ATL
AW: VIR MICH IND SYR PITT ARMY GEO SJST DET GB ATL CAR CIN ARI DAL
GR: CLEM MICH ORE GEO LSU ALA FLA MISST AUB DET GB BAL TEN NE SD
MH: CLEM MICH ILL OK BYU BOISE ORE ASU LSU OLE BAL NE ATL NYJ CHI
MC: DUKE ILL UAB ARMY BUFF BGU ORE NMST IDAHO UTST GB TEN ARI KC IND
SS: MIA MICH NEB OK ORE LSU ALA SC TEN BAL ATL CAR NO MIN PIT
RO: VIR OKST TT BYU BOISE TROY LSU ALA FLA ATL CAR ARI DET SF MIA
TN: MIZZ UCF ECU ND BGU WMU ORE LSU GEO ARK ARI BAL PIT CHI BUF
MT: VT MICH A&M ASU AZ ALA SC ATL CAR NO MIN GB NYJ SD CIN
GT: MICH NEB PSU CMU BOISE AUB ATL CAR NO SD BAL PIT CHI SF TEN
MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
CP: MICH CIN ND TOL BALLST WY ORE COL USC LSU GB CIN KC OAK JAC
LW: OK BOISE ORE SC FLA GB KC CAR NO PIT TEN MIN NE DAL PHI
JH: FSU MICH NEB ORE SC FLA LSU ALA MISST MIN NE ATL BAL NYJ MIA
MO: VT MSU IOWA TT TEM OHIO SDST ORE LSU ALA MIN ATL MIA SF ARI
Got all that? Sorry for the brutal format of listing these, but it is what it is so deal with it.
CLEAN OUT THE SAVINGS
Locks of the century went 2-0 last week...finally. Not seeing anything as automatic as BOISE last week, but I think this will work out.
SC -15 vs. VANDY
Sorry G-Reg, but all that hope building up with the smaaat kids in Vandy will come crashing down this week on their trip to play the Ol' Ball Coach and the BEAST known as Lattimore. SC coming off a scary win vs. NAVY, which was expected, and VANDY coming off a beat down of OLE MISS, which wasn't expected. In my mind, VANDY is done for the year...they got their token SEC win for the season and they are very content shutting it down and prepping for hoops season. SC has larger aspirations than that. The scary part here is that SC and Spurrier have really struggled against VANDY in the past, so that scares me. But I am going to go out on a limb and guess that VANDY doesn't get 5 picks like they did against OLE MISS, and Lattimore goes for at least the 240 he did last week. SC wins and covers 41-7.
BAL -3.5 at STL
Hated BAL last week, and love them this week. After the meltdown against TEN they will refocus and have their 'A' game ready for the Rams. STL looked like a good play last MNF, but their complete lack of execution and constant penalties lead them to an ugly straight up and ATS loss. This team looks lost right now, and their schedule might push them into a deep, dark hole before we even see Halloween. BAL destroys them this week...BAL 27-10.
HEAD SCRATCHER OF THE WEEK
I've gone 3-0 on these, so I figured I would continue...plus it's too much fun looking for these pictures, so this segment will stick around every week. For week 4, I'll call out Corcoran's pick of UAB +11.5 at ECU. Here's the breakdown, ECU is basically the old Texas Tech in the post-steroid era...they can score, lots, and D is optional. So you may think, why would I give 11.5 as a team that can't play any D? Well, in case you haven't been following the stellar Blazer football program since they lost the great Joe Webb, I will get you up to date for 2011. Game 1 at FLA, not an easy start, but 39-0 losers is kind of a downer. They were outgained by 300 yards. Oh well, expected...on to game 2. Hosting a brutal TULANE team that hasn't exactly been good since the Shaun King days. How bad? Like never more than 3 wins in a season bad and most of those come against FCS teams. So UAB is -11.5 in this one and.....They lose 49-10 and get outgained by 350 yards. So I guess you have the angle that they should be on the rebound after 2 bad performances, but with a team that is averaging only 5 ppg against an offensive juggernaut? I'm not giving them a chance....ECU WINS 49-14.
GOOD LUCK ON THAT ACE
The always popular solo plays for the week - teams that nobody else but you like this week:
CP-CIN (like it)
TN-UCF (I vote Mormon on this one if I had to pick it)
GT-CMU (salty on SPARTY after the collapse last week?)
MO-SDST (I kind of agree, but I hope MICH houses so the Gophs catch 'em off guard next week)
CP-TOL
AW-SYR (head to head ACE games...I like it)
GT-PSU
AW-PITT
MO-IOWA (WHO HATES IOWA!?!)
MH-OLE MISS (dangerous SEC double digit DOG)
MO-TEM (I love MARY this week)
CP-BALLST
MO-OHIO
JG-KST (anti-Cane betting...thanks)
SS-MIA (another mano y mano ACE game...love it) (side bet JG & SS?)
RO-OKST (love love love A&M)
TN-WMU (anti-Zook!)
CP-COL (antyhing against OHIOST is a good pick right now...8-4 baby!)
MC-DUKE
MC-UAB
TN-ECU (matchup of ACE teams...MC vs. TN...only on PPV!)
MC-NMST (I think you have 10 ACE's this week!)
AW-SJST ( AW vs. MC in an ACE game as well...lots of these this week)
RO-TROY
MC-IDAHO
AW-IND
CP-WY
MC-UTST
MT-AZ (they have to rebound sometime, right?!?)
CP-USC (homer pick)
CP-JAC (kind of like this one with the hook at +3.5)
LW-PHI (played it before the line was known...ballsy)
JG-CLE (this will lose)
JR-TB (this will win)
MC-IND (I made this mistake LW...do not pick this team)
BIG GAMES....BIG OPINIONS
Not many great games this week, but defintiely a lot of interesting ones...
SDST-MICH (-8)
Colin Cowherd actually loves the Aztecs this week because...MICH WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO MINNESOTA...wow, even I don't give my squad that much credit. Well, Cowherd is wrong. Brady Hoke will be jacked to play his old squad, or maybe the other way around. Anywho, I think this one has a chance to be close, but Hoke's knowledge of the SDST personnel might give them the edge and frankly I don't think SDST is a top notch club...so I'm going MICH 38 SDST 21 - Wolverines setting themselves up for a nice letdown next week against KILL NATION.
OKST-A&M (-3)
Holy Shootout Batman! Another game with defense optional, which seems to be the majority of the games this side of the SEC in 2011. A&M has a large homefield advantage and I actually think their D could play a role in this game. I'm not thinking they hold the Cowpokes to less than 28 points, but I think they are poised to make a big run this year and winning this one is the first step. OKST just hasn't impressed me this year, I know they score fast and in bunches, but I don't see it continuing without Phil Collins..er, I mean, Dana Holgorsen running the show. More on that guy later. A&M WINS 44-37.
FSU-CLEM (+3)
Line has actually shifted to make CLEM a small favorite in this one. I coulnd't pick it for 2 reasons...FSU has QB injury questions and is coming off a major let down in the OK loss. CLEM beat AUB last week, which is a huge deal in Death Valley, and their coach Dabo Swinney nearly peed his pants in post game interviews he was so excited. Emotional outbursts by coaches need to be reserved for championships, not winning a non-conference game in week 3. So I don't like either team this week, but it is a big game so I'm forced to have a big opinion on it. CLEM getting points is the play in this situation...CLEM WINS 24-21.
ARK-ALA (-12.5)
Highly debated game amongst the Football Challenge worls and the national talking heads this week. The belief is that ALA has stupid good D and ARK's young QB will struggle. I think the equalizer in this situation is Bobby Petrino. As much as I don't like the guy, he's an offensive genius. Even his brother turned around the pathetic Illini offense, so it must run in the family! ALA still hasn't looked outstadning on offense, and I'm not convinced they have the playmakers they had in the past to score mass amounts of points. ARK needs to avoid turnovers and get the ball to the NFL caliber WR's that they have to hang around. I think they do it...ALA WIN BUT DOESN'T COVER 23-14
MIZZ-OK (-21)
OK at home is about as sure of a thing as death and taxes, but 21 points off an emotional win and welcoming in a decent team that is capable of exploding for points? Very scared of taking OK this week (3 of you are not). I think OK starts looking ahead to their next real roadblock (TEXAS) and cruises through this one with an ugly win...BOOMER SOONER 31-21.
LSU-WV (+5)
ESPN and Gameday are heading to Morgantown for the first time ever this Saturday for this one and oh boy are they in for a treat. If you are not familiar with the great University of WV, let me enlighten you:
COACH
Dana Holgorsen is all of this rolled into one. He's an offensive mastermind, a mullet wearing hillbilly, and a lover of the casinos. In other words...the perfect fit for WV Head Ball Coach.
TRADITIONS
Couch burning is a local favorite. It doesn't make sense to me either. But I guess it's what the Morgantown folk love to do...so that's exciting. They are actually putting in a notice this week that all couches must be cleared off of the porches in Morgantown and need to be indoors...because I guess the students won't figure out how to bring them back out to burn them later in the evening? Bizarro.
GEAR
These are Mountaineer fans, and this is what they wear. Once again, in a last ditch effort to appear a little less West Virginia-ey, the school has banned this shirt from the game and are giving out regular WV shirts to anyone who has one and returns it to the book store. Don't try to be something you're not WV, just embrace your inner Hillbilly.
Now that you're up to speed on what we're dealing with, here's my thought on the game. WV has crushed a couple of teams with their crazy good offense and nearly took their foot off the gas too much last week at MARY after being up big early on. LSU plays a little D and might pose quite the challenge for these fellas. Plus they have the grass-eater leading the way, the luckiest coach in the history of football!
Wow, it is going to be quite the scene Saturday night. The pick seems obvious, we have 10 on LSU and 0 on WV...one of those 10 is me. I think the D dominates and the running game puts up enough to cover the number...LSU WINS AND COVERS 27-14.
BISON SUPER BOWL
I hate this game. It's like when I played baseball and we had the Mankato World Series every year...if we blow them out then it's expected, if we win a close one then we must suck, if we lose then sound the alarm because the sky is falling. These games are worthless to everyone except the little guys - why bring in a team that's motivated to beat the local big guy while we're probably more motivated to go to practice next Tuesday than play this little engine that could on Saturday. With that being said, I saw a line of Gophers -9, which I wouldn't touch. So here it is, the Bison have a nice little progrum, they lost 10-9 to the Mase Gophers, and they beat the Brew Gophers 27-21...don't all the haters make it seem like this game was actually like 45-0? That was the worst MN team in my memory against the best Bison team and they beat us by 6 points. So I'm sure it will be close for all of those reasons, but in the end I just want to win this game, go to 2-2, and move on to real games like MICH next week. GOPHERS WIN 28-24.
NFL RUNDOWN
Quick thoughts on each and every game in the NFL...
JAC-CAR: Like Jags with points in the battle of rookie QB's.
DEN-TEN: number has sky-rocketed, would take DEN at 7+, but TEN at -4.5.
HOU-NO: it's about time for the HOU bubble to pop...NO is great at home.
NYG-PHI: Vick playing = NYG losing by a lot.
NE-BUF: 10.5 is a lot for a decent home team, take the points when you can.
MIA-CLE: MIA on the road? Sounds like a winner to me.
SF-CIN: CIN is pretty solid, SF is better than expected, take the home team.
NYJ-OAK: Raiders were jobbed by a bad schedule for last week, they shock the world and win this week
KC-SD: KC spreads are getting out of control already...have to take 16.5.
ATL-TB: I'm the only one on them, but I love TB this week. ATL doesn't look that good to me.
GB-CHI: Bears ALWAYS play GB tough at home, I take 4 and think they win outright.
ARI-SEA: I want to take TJACK so bad, but he's the reason I'm taking ARI.
PIT-IND: INDY = DEAD...PIT crushes.
WAS-DAL: torn on this one, but I think I take points and WARSHINGTON. DAL injuries scare me.
DET (-4!) at PURPLE
Last time the Lions were favored against the Purple in MN was when I was about 6 months old and the dome was only a drawing. Yeah, it's been a while. The whole world is in love with the Lions right now, and rightfully so. They have been the most impressive team in the NFC thus far. The Purple could be 2-0, but have blown 2 second half leads and are 0-2. Desperation has set in, it's a division game, 0-3 is not an option. The FC world is split on this one, which was expected. It seems like all of us are either eternal Purple optimists or haters as soon as the ship spots an iceberg. A win here turns the season around and gives us hope...we really haven't been too far away from a pair of wins. The D will need to make it happen, and DMcRib will need to throw it down the field a bit and give us a chance. You know my theory, if the whole world is saying you'll win, I'd bet against it. If the whole world is saying you're terrible and will lose, I will pick them. Both theories are at work here, so I'm calling PURPLE 24-21.
Enjoy the week - VEGAS countdown for some of us is at T-14 days...
Good Luck!!
No comments:
Post a Comment