For the first time in 3 years, the Jug will be on the line this weekend in the Big House. I can remember twice in my lifetime where the Maroon and Gold have owned this hardware, could Saturday make it the 3rd?
Sorry for the lack of a "What We Learned" blast yesterday - I was too frustrated to create it all over again after the internet meltdown. But here we go again with a full preview for the weekend ahead.
PICKS
JR: USF ARK GEO ILL NAVY TCU GT VT FIU NEB CAR CLE MIN ATL IND
JG: NEB IND MN BAY TEX BYU TCU COL UK ATL IND BUF STL PIT NE
MR: GT NEB MICH OK ND BOISE ARK LSU TN FLA IND STL CLE MIN CHI
AW: BC MN MSU PUR A&M FIU GEO ALA NMST MIN ATL BUF NE DET HOU
GR: CLEM NEB MICH ILL KST USF ND BOISE ALA MIN ATL DAL WAS GB BAL
MH: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
MC: DUKE ARMY EMU OHIO TCU AZ ARKST NMST UTST SJST MIN NE IND JAC DEN
SS: WF MICH UCONN WV ARMY BYU TCU BOISE STAN MIN NE DEN DET NYG MIA
RO: NEB ILL A&M TEX TT NILL TCU BOISE ALA LSU NE DET NYG BUF CHI
TN: CLEM GT NEB TT USF CIN NAVY OHIO BALLST UTST NE DET BUF MIN NYJ
MT: GT BC A&M ASU ALA AUB NEV DET MIN NYG IND WAS BAL HOU TEN
GT: CLEM NEB ILL MICH OHIOST PITT TEM AUB DET MIN NYG HOU NE MIA ATL
MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
CP: MICH TT USF SYR SMU ARMY BALLST WASU LSU UTST MIN NE MIA STL CAR
LW: NEB OK ND UCLA FLA MIN NE NYG ATL NYJ GB PIT CIN SD TB
JH: MICH PSU WIS OK TEX USF ND USC LSU NE ATL GB CHI NO PHI
MO: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
I'm missing picks from 3 of you still. As long as I receive them today, I will still allow it for this week. But for the future here's the deal - it's not a tough concept, I get you the games on Tuesday and you have 2 nights to figure it out plus Thursday morning. Whether it's doing it right away when you get them or making it a Thursday morning tradition we have to start getting these back on time to make this a fair deal for everyone. The extra 6 hours or extra day(s) before turning in your picks allow you to see more late line moves and injury info - which isn't fair to the rest of the group. I make them due on THUR so we can get them in before any games are played and I can type up the full weekly preview. The deadline is not changing, but if you're struggling with it you'll have to figure out a way to fix it. I'll send out the Thursday morning reminder, but that's it. I'm not begging for picks from anyone any more. If they aren't here on time on Thursday then you're out for the week. I get being an hour or two late if you're stuck with a meeting or something, but nothing will be accepted on Friday or Saturday any more. Sorry to be a dick, but there's cash on the line and I'm pissing more people off by not enforcing the deadline than excluding 1-2 guys who can't get the picks in on time.
Sorry, on to better stuff.
LOCKS OF THE CENTURY...OF THE WEEK
I nailed these both again last week and bragged about it in the deleted "WWL" disaster from yesterday that nobody got to see. So I'll reiterate, SC over VANDY and BAL over STL both crushed. if SC wouldn't have had 5 turnovers it would have been even easier. VANDY had 77 yards of total offense! For this week, here are the 2 best bets:
NAVY -3 vs. AF
Putting this at a -3 basically means Vegas sees these 2 teams as being equal...which is wrong. NAVY has dominated AF over the years, so you have the historical edge on your side - and last year AF actually beat them, so you have revenge on the side of the Midshipmen as well. Navy is coming off of a BYE while AF is coming off a scrimmage with a FCS opponent. Navy has played a tougher schedule, played better against that schedule, and has been a better covering team than AF as well. NAVY wins 31-21.
MIN +0 at KC
Could this be gambling suicide by putting the Purple in lock of the week status? I don't think so. So they are 0-3, but really have played pretty well against 3 likely playoff teams. I guess I don't see it as a sky is falling type of start. Obviously, blowing 3 halftime leads is not ideal and starting 0-2 at home sucks...but if they string a couple of wins together vs. a couple of bad teams (KC and ARI) they would be right back at 2-3 and feeling okay. If Purple team would have beat SD and DET and lost to KC and ARI to get to 2-3 that way would we feel the same way? No. KC is a train wreck, in fact I'm hearing all the Kirk Ferentz rumors starting again already as Todd Haley seems to be on his way out. Would Ferentz turn down the cash again and a team with Andrew Luck to escape the hell-hole that is Iowa City? The Cheifs were bad at full strength, then they lost Berry and Charles and might lose to Alabama striaght up if they played. The gave it everything they had left in noe final attempt last week against SD, but once again they fell short. It's over for that club, and the Purple are in 110% desperation mode...even more so than last week. PURPLE WIN 24-10.
HEADSCRATCHER OF THE WEEK
I finally misfired on one of these last week. I called out UAB over ECU as a questionable pick and UAB covered. How did that happen...well, ECU turned it over 7! times and still won the game 28-23!! I'm still very anti-Blazer, if you can force 7 turnovers and be at a +4 and still lose you must be terrible. This week I'm going to call out Cole Peyton and his SMU +11.5 at TCU pick. SMU is 3-1, but it's a fluffy 3-1. I liked them a lot coming into the year, but they look like some of June Jones' early HAW teams where they blow the pants off of nobody team (NWST, MEM) struggle against low level competition (28-17 win over UTEP) and get their doors blown off against the good opponents (A&M 46-14). TCU is still on the "kill everyone by 100" tour that started after they lost the opener to BAY. TCU at home is a very very very tough beat, and I just don't see 11.5 being nearly enough. TCU WINS 45-20.
GOOD LUCK ON THAT ACE
Solo plays for the week...some brave guesstimates out there this week:
GT-PITT
JH-PSU VS. JG-IND
CP-SYR
GT-TEM
JG-UK
SS-WF (I really like this one)
MR-TN
TN-CIN
MC-EMU
MT-NEV
CP-SMU
MC-AZ VS. JH-USC
CP-WASU VS. JG-COL
SS-UCONN
AW-MSU VS. GT-OHIOST
SS-WV
RO-NILL
JG-BAY VS. GR-KST (side bet potential?!?!)(make up for SC-NAVY?!?)
MC-SJST
MC-ARKST
JR-VT
MC-DUKE
JH-WIS (booooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!)
AW-PUR
MT-ASU
LW-UCLA VS. SS-STAN (more side bet potential??)
NFL
GR-DAL (I like this one for some reason)
JH-NO VS. MC-JAC
MT-TEN
LW-CIN (love the anti-BUF pick, good call)
JH-PHI
LW-SD
LW-TB
BIG GAMES...BIG OPINIONS
A&M-ARK (+3)
A&M comes off one of the largest disappointments of the year in their epic collapse against OKST. The Hogs come in off a tough loss to ALA in which the Tide scored multiple TD's in every phase of the game. Personally, I still think my ARK pick last week was solid...I didn't expect a Pick-6, Fake FG TD, and a PR TD...that sucked. My A&M pick of last week still seems like the right side to me considering all the factors going into the game. I think where it went wrong for them was the inexperience in big games. OKST played in a few large ones last year and A&M really didn't because expectations were low for them with their brutal start last season. So now they have to rebound and play in the Jerry Dome against Jerry's alma mater...this doesn't look good. Not to mention that as soon as next year these 2 will be conference rivals, so I'm thinking ARK wants to relay the message from the rest of the SEC to the Aggies about what they might be in for in the coming years. When in doubt take the SEC team in a non-conference game...especially when they are incorrectly getting points!! HOGS ROLL 38-28.
MSU-OHIOST (-3)
2 good teams from last year that look a little less than good in 2011. I still think the Sparty loss to ND was a bit of a fluke, but OHIOST was beatdown by the Canes, that was legit. Doesn't it seem crazy that this line is only 3 at the once mighty Buckeyes? But when you can't throw the ball at all, then it's tough to score points. In this day and age of college football, throwing the ball can get you to the title. The running game is great and important, but if you can't throw at all you are not an elite team. So OHIOST can't throw...this has been proven. Sparty can do both as a balanced offense. But the big thing with OHIOST is always the defense. Does the D show up and shut down Sparty in this one? I'm torn on this game, but I need to give a big opinion, so here it is: BUCKEYES WIN AN UGLY ONE 17-11.
CLEM-VT(-7)
I'm going solo on this one with 3 of you on the CLEM train after a couple of impressive wins. Why VT? They haven't been playing that well, but they haven't had to with their schedule. CLEM just went through 2 emotional wins over AUB and FSU and now hits the road for the 1st time in a tricky little spot called Blacksburg. At night, it's almost impossible to beat the Hokies in this atmosphere. And they have the greatest entrance in all of college sports. If I could get YOUTUBE to work right now I'd give you a link, but just search Virginia Tech entrance and you'll see it...electric. It will be nuts and HOKIES WIN 27-17.
ALABAMA-FLORIDA (+5)
Another game that I had a really hard time with this week. I think the Gators are back enough to make this interesting in the Swamp. But ALA is so well coached and so well prepared that I don't trust a Chuck Weis offense to really do a lot of damage against them. Both squads played extremely well last week, and come in off of big wins. You know that there will be plenty of D in this one with 2 of the top 5 D's in the nation matching up - but I think ALA's experience will guide them through this one...TIDE WIN 23-16.
NEB-WIS (-9.5)
This is kind of a big one. The two media favorites in the Big Ten before the year started finally meet in Madison for the first real challenge of the year for both teams. On paper, I'm calling the 2 teams about even. I know Becky has housed everyone in their path while NEB has struggled a bit, but I think talent wise I would put them on an even scale...which is why 9.5 points doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Angry Bo will be out as the Baaaaaadgers always seem to get the breaks when playing at home. But in the end...
Becky survives but doesn't cover the number...BECKY 27-24.
MN-MICH (-20.5)
I guess Coach Kill is back after what sounded like it was going to be a longshot. MarQuies is banged up and sounds very questionable at this point, so we might be starting the ginger kid and playing him the whole game. Shortell honestly still gives us a shot in this game, but to expect a true Freshman to go in and win the Jug in front of 100K+ is silly. MICH still doesn't look overly impressive to me, but the Gophs have lots of issues right now and I'm not sure we'll work them all out on the road this week. Confidence is low...optimism is high for a decent product by the end of the year. MICHIGAN WINS 38-14. Suck.
NFL RUNDOWN
DET-DAL: I think Lions are on letdown and even though DAL looked terrible, I think they win.
CAR-CHI: Like the Panthers in this spot, Bears just played Pack and have DET and MIN in next 2 weeks after this...they are looking past a decent CAR team getting 7. Bears win a squeaker.
NO-JAC: Thought 9 was too much, but I didn't like it enough to pick it.
TEN-CLE: No Kenny Britt = no offense in TEN...CLE at home owes me one after the Suicide disaster.
BUF-CIN: Everyone loves the Bills...danger! danger! danger!...take CIN at home +3.
MIN-KC: Purple Pride!!!
SF-PHI: SF has been a surprise, but PHI off the NYG disaster is the pick here at -10.
WAS-STL: I think WAS is better and STL has a bye next week so they'll roll into it at 0-4.
PIT-HOU: Torn on this one. PIT with points has always been a solid bet, but they feel different this year. I'm going Texans.
ATL-SEA: TJack to win 2 in a row? No chance. Take ATL.
NYG-ARI: we have 5 on NYG and zero on ARI...I like the Cards at +1.5. I think they upset the G-men.
DEN-GB: The GB lines are going to be crazy all year...I take 14.5 with a bad Broncos team.
NE-OAK: Brady and Belichick off a loss...have to lay the 4.5 vs. an OAK team off a big win over NYJ.
MIA-SD: Think it's too many points, but my Fins are fading fast and coach Mafia will be looking for a new gig soon at a laundromat or seedy restaurant...Chargers with very little confidence.
NYJ-BAL: Tough line at 3.5...I think BAL is the better team and at home so you have to pick them. NYJ are waiting for NE next week.
IND-TB: TB doesn't blow anybody out, hell they will probably be behind in the 4th qtr before another Josh Freeman comeback...take Colts and points.
Finally, since I'm heading to Vegas next week, I figured I need to start shapening up my teaser skills just in case I need to give advice to a random d-bag late Saturday night like last year...so here it is for this week:
6 team teaser - pays 5:1, move the line 6 pts
DEN +20.5
MIA +16
PIT +9
CIN +9
NYJ +9.5
IND +17.5Play at your own risk.
Enjoy the weekend! Get your picks in on time! Go Get The Jug!!!
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