Week 5 Preview

HATE WEEK Part I of 2012 is here as the mighty Maroon and Gold make the journey down to Iowa this weekend. We'll get to some of the scary confidence that this group has in the Gophs in a moment but until then...

PROTECT THE PIG!!!

First of all, let's look at the popular picks for the week. These actually fared okay last week:
#1 choice...MN GOPHERS by 16 of us, love the confidence but hate that everyone sees this as obvious because that usually means it's not. NYG, STAN, SD, NE, CHI, SF, CIN, GB, WIS, ORE, BAL, MIN, MIZZ, STL.

Once again the Gophers and Vikings make the list....as well as the Badgers and Packers. Interesting. Guess how many people like the Hawkeyes this week against the Gophs...ZERO. Once again, yikes.

NCAA

7-3 again last week in my picks for the 10 biggest games of the weekend. You'd think I would just start playing these games, but I'm not that sharp. Why play these and go 7-3 when I can pick 3 MAC games and 3 CUSA games and go 1-5.

GOPHERS AT IOWA

1st game of the day, 11AM Saturday morning. Like I said before, 16 on MN and 0 on IA. I've had an uneasy feeling about this one since last Saturday ended. It's one of the 2 games per year that I care about the most, and MN has won 2 in a row. The Killers come into Iowa City with a 4-0 mark and a lot of momentum. Iowa comes in at 2-2 with a 1-2 home record and a lot to prove. This is kind of a complete role reversal from the last couple of years. I was happy to see the line posted at 6.5-7.5, because coming in as a favorite or very small dog is not a good spot. MN needs to be in that underdog role, so with the line for us at 6.5 I feel like there's a chance to have this all work out the right way. The Gophs D is much improved, and Iowa's offense looks awful. They lean 100% on their 2nd string FB turned starting HB to move the ball 4 yards at a time and score all of their points. I'm not sure what has happened to Vandenberg, but him and that receiving crew look terrible this season. I don't think the new OC is helping things...remember, this is a guy who's brilliance struggled at times with Texas-type athletes so sputtering at Iowa isn't exactly a shocker to me. I know it's crazy, but barring a $hit-ton of turnovers by Shortell and company, I can't see Iowa scoring a ton of points in this one. Our defense hasn't been amazing against the run, but we really haven't prepared to stop the run by playing a lot of quick/short passing teams the last 3 weeks. UNLV is a running club, and after the 1st quarter they couldn't run the ball at all. So I think the Gophers defense will limit the running game and keep this game close. The biggest concern for me is that the offense needs to do something and not make mistakes. Shortell in a road start will be nervous and likely struggle at times. Iowa, as bad as they've been, still plays pretty decent defense. (They did give up 32 to CMU last week, but I'm sure that was a fluke just like FLOYD 2010 and FLOYD 2011 games). Kirkwood and the running game has been solid, but this game will be won with a couple of big passing plays from Max and the receivers. So far, they have done a wonderful job of taking care of the ball, so if this continues and they find a couple of explosive plays in the passing game, then I think this turns out well. To me, it looks like a FG game either way, but obviously, I'll go with my club...GOPHERS KEEP FLOYD 23-20.

BAYLOR AT WV
Holy Offense Batman! Yeah, I know, I thought that last week too in the AZ-ORE game, but I really think this one has to be a shootout. BAY may as well not even field a defense, it would end with the same result. WV does play more D, but I think Holgo loves a shootout much more than a 20-19 nail biter. Both team live off of big plays and turnovers, so I expect a lot of fireworks in this one. With that being said, give me the +12.5 and the Baylor Bears. WV wins by a TD.

ARKANSAS AT A&M
So I had this one on the list for awhile early in the week, but I ultimately removed it. You know ARK has the talent to play much better than they have so far this year. They will have that effort eventually that jumps up and shocks the hell out of everyone in a big spot. The only question is will that be this week? On the flip side, I think A&M can be really good, and may blow out ARK. The Hogs play no D and turn it over a lot, so I think that continues and A&M cover the number on this one...but look out AUB next week because ARK might beat you by 30!

CMU AT NILL
I know, not really a major game, but I only had 9 I liked on the list so it's a filler. I chose it because I think it is an obvious pick that would be worth wagering a bundle on in Sin City (T-22 days and counting btw). CMU coming off an emotional high with the win in the land of Meth and Piggys, and now going on the road for the 2nd of 3 straight road games to open conference play. Not a fun spot. NILL is a quality club that plays very well on both sides of the ball and could really make some noise if they stopped turning it over. This will be U-G-L-Y...NILL 49-16.

OHIOST AT MSU
This feels like a B1G matchup that should be played in late NOV and not a sunny afternoon in September. Both teams are built in similar ways with a focus on running the ball and playing D. Neither QB throws it very well at all. Both are off of underwhelming wins last week, clearly both coaches were focusing on this one vs. spending time on the lesser opponents of last Saturday. OHIOST has really been very average on D this year, but they have thrived on the turnovers. MSU has been dominant on D, as expected, but their only impressive win is a 41-7 beatdown at CMU (yes, that 32-31 over Iowa CMU) in Week 2. The Sparty offense scares me in this one, as they don't necessarily need a great D to slow them down. I think OHIOST hangs in on D and waits for Maxwell to make a mistake, while Urban finds a couple of sneaky ways to score points (special teams? trick plays?) and ends up winning this one in East Lansing...Buckeyes 17-16.

TENNESSEE AT GEO
Despite the Week 1 belief that TEN was a contender this year, I really think Dooley is going to be out of a job and this team is going nowhere fast. GEO looks dominant to me so far, and they may unload in this one and help Dooley pack his bags a little faster than expected. It could be embarassing...GEORGIA 45-20.

TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE
Do I really think this is a big game? Sort of. Am I pretending it's big as a part of HATE WEEK to annoy the 2nd or 3rd best team in Iowa...yep. Cyclone nation feels like they might still have another win on the slate as they welcome in an also undefeated TT team that has destroyed a schedule that includes 3 schools who probably couldn't even consolidate to field a roster that would even keep it close against LeRoy-Ostrander. So yeah, I'm not real impressed with who the Red Raiders have beaten, but to their credit they have pounded everyone in Leach-like fashion. Team Natty Lite has a couple of nice wins over Tulsa and Iowa so far, and being a home dog in an evening game should provide a little extra motivation. As you would expect, the TT numbers are absurd so I really can't even use those to predict anything in this one. ISU is playing very strong D, but offensively they really struggle (see 15 turnovers vs. Iowa in the 9-6 thriller). When it comes down to it, I just think the Red Raiders, even if the Clones slow them down a bit, will score 25-35 points. I really don't think the Clones are capable of that. Sorry guys, you're still the best team in Iowa, but you lose this one...TT 34-24.

TEXAS AT OKST
Lots of questions in this one. Is OKST for real? AZ handled them, but that was the first road start for a Freshman QB. They are a very good team in Stillwater, but will the motivation for Texas be high enough after losing the last couple in a row to the Cowboys? The jury is still out for me with Texas. I love their athletes, but they have not been good the last couple of years so why would I think they are better in 2012? The D still gave up 31 to lowly Ole Miss their last time out, which means OKST could score 62 on them. However, with 2 teams that have relatively identical stats and strength of schedule, I'll got with the team that's averaging +2 turnovers per game over the team that is averaging -2 TO per game...TEXAS 39-30.

WISCONSIN AT NEBRASKA
You know who the whole world is cheering for in this one and the force begins to even itself out after the last couple of years of ALL WISCONSIN/GREEN BAY WINNING EVERYTHING. Thank god most of us survived that short-lived period of modern history. 2012 is a year where a lot of teams are going to want a little payback on Bert and the gang...and it starts this week. WIS may not have a win this year if not for their solid D. The offense is averaging a putrid 4.6 ypp and they frequently turn the ball over. They destroyed NEB in Madison last year, I know we've all tried to forget it, but they did. NEB looks okay this year. As has been the trend, the Pelini D (formerly known as the black shirts) really isn't that scary once again this year. Uncle Rico looks like he learned to throw a little, but I'm still not convinced. This is that classic, "oh my god NEB is much better and will want to run it up so they'll win by 50!" kind of trap game. WIS will find a way to hang around and stay in this thing...you just have to know they will. NEB win (which is all that matters for some of us) but WIS covers this big number...NEB 23-17.

ORE ST AT ARIZONA
Alright Zona, you disappointed the hell out of me last week, so it's redemption time. OREST, despite their 2 nice wins so far, really don't impress me. I think Zona, in the new copper helmets, comes out firing and converts on a majority of those 6 redzone trips that they misfired on last week. The Beavers don't put together a great effort 2 weeks in a row, both on the road, and AZ extracts a little revenge for the blowout last week. Zona wins and cover 35-24.

There's the magic 10 - mark down another 7-3, right? I only used 3 in my plays for the week, so we'll see.

NFL

As beautifully as the NCAA picks are going for me this year, my usual strength of the NFL is not so hot. A god-awful 4-10 performance last week was depressing. I re-assessed, got back to basics, and bought a new set of darts...so here we go:

CLE-BAL: Obviously, this one is going right now, but I did like CLE in it, which looks like probably the right side.
SEA-STL: Loving STL for the 4th week in a row, WTF? How can you not bet against this SEA team on a short week off the ultimate emotional win, traveling cross country for a division game as a road favorite? Yes, I wish they were all this easy. STL wins.
SD-KC: I kind of think this one is a no-brainer as well. KC with an improbable come from behind win last week (still have Romeo as coach) against a better Charger team that got blown away at home. Loving SD in this one.
PURPLE-DET: Call me crazy, drunk, high, whatever...but I think this Purple team is better than I thought. I know, it's one big win, but I like what I see. And they are in a good spot here at DET to play motivated football and win again. Vikes win outright!! SKOL!!
NE-BUF: All my numbers and research tell me BUF is the play, but I feel like this pick has to come down to one stat...NE is 1-2 after 2 straight L's, do you think they'll be motivated? Yep. Take NE.
SF-NYJ: Niners are a good team that was uninterested last week. NYJ are a bad team that got lucky last week. SF is the pick.
TEN-HOU: Wow is TEN bad...and they beat DET! This will be a laugher. Pick HOU.
CAR-ATL: Cam Newton pissed me off enough last week to maybe never pick this team again, or at least this week. I'll take ATL to cover the big number.
OAK-DEN: Very tough call here for me. I've been picking DEN too much because they are getting more credit than they deserve. It's a toss up to me, but I'll try Peyton and the home field in this one.
CIN-JAC: Another one of my plays...JAC. CIN in back to back road games and off a big win in WAS is not a good spot. JAGS are a live home dog this week.
MIA-ARI: Undefeated Cards, I still don't know if they are that good. But MIA is worse...However, it's a major letdown spot for ARI so MIAMI is the pick.
WAS-TB: Loving RG3 in this one. I think the bandwagon has slowed since the NO win in week 1, which means it's a perfect time to jump on them this week. WAS +3.
NO-GB: Have to like GB after MNF, but my god does NO have to be ready to play some extreme desperation football because 0-4 is a death blow. I'll take NO and more than a TD.
NYG-PHI: My Philly club has looked terrible every week. Somehow, they are 2-1. NYG coming off a crushing win over CAR. I believe too much in Reid's history to not think that this team will show up big in this one and win by more than a FG. I'll take Eagles.
CHI-DAL: Pretty even team in my mind, so not sure how this line is more than a FG. But since it is, I'll take advantage and play BEARS +4.

Sorry for the late summary and preview this week - sometimes the FC rhythm gets interrupted by the day job, but until I/we get better at picking these that will continue.

It's a big week - GO GOPHS!
Good Luck.

Week 4 Preview

 

Week 4 is here, it actually started last night with a classic KENT at BUFF MACtion. It's a week with a few marquee games (all in the evening) and a tough slate of NFL matchups.

GROUP 15

This went 5-10 again last week, the 15 most popular picks are not a good list to take to the window in Vegas. So for this week, here's what we have:

SF,DET,GB,BUF,ATL,HOU,NYG,PIT,USC.MICH,SYR,MN,STL,DEN,NE

Obviously, all of these won't work out because we have both sides picked on a couple of different matchups, but another 3-12 or 4-11 is likely considering our last 3 weeks.

My College preview picks went 7-3 last week! 70% for a lifetime 45% guy in NCAA Football is crazy!! So I'm expecting something closer to 3-7 this week to keep me from boarding that next red eye to Vegas on a Friday night. NFL picks were a respectable 8-6 last week. So here we go for Week 4 with my first two teams already in action and looking like the wrong sides (CAROLINA?!?! and BOISE)

MIAMI AT GT

I nearly put Miami on the list this week, but their defense has been so porous that I couldn't do it. However, I'll take them getting more than 2 TD's this week at GT for my preview picks. GT is coming off a revenge blowout of VIR, and I expect them to be a little down. MIA's last real game was getting housed by KST, so they have to be ready to avenge that and open ACC play. I'll call for a Canes upset win 30-25.

OREST AT UCLA

The Beavers are still coming off the big WIS victory and UCLA has had a tremendous start to the year by beating NEB and HOU the last couple of weeks. I think UCLA will struggle a little bit more this week and the Beavers will keep this one close. UCLA wins 23-17.

MIZZ AT SC

This one did make my list. 3rd tough game in a row for MIZZOU and their 1st SEC road game. Ruh-roh. SC is real deal on defense and offensively they can do enough to beat you. I think MIZZOU comes in a struggles badly. Their offense hasn't been good all year, and this is a great defense they have to play on the road. I'll say SC rolls through MIZZ 27-7.

CAL AT USC

I was pretty shocked at the USC loss last week. I really didn't think STAN could match up with them, but it seemed to be a lack of toughness and desire that beat the Trojans all night. CAL is a mess. They did nearly beat OHIOST last week, but that may have been their last hurrah. Tedford is on the hot seat, they face a brutal schedule, and I don't think USC will take them lightly. Trojans show up and roll the over matched Bears 44-14.

LSU AT AUB

I think we're all finding out how the great Gene Chizik does when he doesn't have an all-world QB leading his team. Really, there is no excuse to be as pathetic as his last couple teams have been at a school like AUB. He finally got win #1 of the season last week in OT vs. ULM. With 3 more guaranteed L's on the slate, he's got to win all the toss up's to even get this club into a bowl game. No bowl likely means no job for Mean Gene. LSU looks as loaded as ever, and I think we can officially start counting down the days until they play ALA in Game of the Century Part 3 on November 3rd. What will happen this week...well, it may surprise you, but I think AUB may show a little life and make this interesting. I'm expecting the AUB D to play tough and give LSU a fight. I don't think AUB can score at all, but I'll say LSU barely covers 27-6.

MICH AT ND

 Yes, this was the score after 3 quarters last year before all craziness happened and MICH scored 4 4th quarter TD's to win after it looked like they had lost at least twice. ND could not cover anyone last year as Robinson just threw up prayer after prayer and MICH kept catching them. Last week, ND impressed by totally shutting down the Sparty running game and scoring just enough to beat Sparty easily. MICH has not been overly impressive this season. ND is a better team with a better D and revenge on their mind with homefield advantage. Lots to like there...I'll take the Irish 31-20.

KST AT OK

KST is a nice little story through this season and last year, but this is OK on the road. OK doesn't lose home games. KST got rolled big time last year at home against OK, and I think this game could be similar. I like Boomer Sooner to win big...49-20.

SYR AT MN

SYR is getting a lot of love for being a 1-2 team who struggled with Stonybrook last week. Their claim to fame (like the early season 2011 Gophers) was playing close to USC. NW had them beat badly before completely collapsing like all NW Defenses do from time to time. I think SYR is an athletic team that plays pretty well on both sides of the ball, but I don't think they know how to win. Last week was their first win in their last 9! games. They lost 6 straight to end last season and their first 2 this year. So many are calling for them to come into the Bank and win on the road vs. an equally athletic team? I don't see it. The Gophers have questions with some injuries and obviously the new QB. Shortell looked very good last week, but I'm guessing he'll be a little jittery under the lights with the heat on him from the start. This will be the toughest test to date for the Gophs, so they are going to have to play their best game. The defense needs to continue their great play, which I think they can do as SYR runs a very similar look to WMU that they saw last week. Shortell has to make some throws and not get them beat by turning it over. The offense looked a lot different with him in there last week, so lets hope that continues. Running the ball, like always, will be critical for a Gopher W. I think they can do it - a night game with a sell out crowd against a tough opponent...time to make a statement and keep this train rolling while going into the B1G season. Gophs win and cover 30-23.

CLEM AT FSU

This was a tough call for me. I think FSU is definitely for real, and they are playing with a revenge angle from last year when CLEM beat them. CLEM is a nice team, but I have a hard time believing in them, even though they have been impressive throughout the first 3 and all of last year. I think the Noles are the better team, but I'll say they aren't 14 points better this weekend. FSU wins 34-24.

ARIZONA AT OREGON

This may actually be my predicted score in this one. LOTS O' OFFENSE all around for this late nighter. I'm planning on watching it after the Gophs victory and making up a drinking game around every TD and type of TD that can and will be scored in this one. If anyone is interested, text me after the Gopher W and we'll make this work. Not a lot of D on either side, which is why I think AZ +23.5 might be the best bet on the board this week. I really don't see ORE losing, but I don't expect them to stop anyone either. I'm saying Ducks win 66-49.

In other news this week, let's keep an eye on our other 2 favorites.

CMU AT IOWA

The Hogeyes looked like they kind of started to get it together last week. They did lose 2 more RB's, which is ridiculous, but the 2nd string FB playing HB worked....against a power like UNI. Defensively, I think Iowa is fine, but I'm still not sure the offense is much to be afraid of at this point. CMU might be worse than UNI. I don't think much of them at all this season, and I'd actually prefer it if team Ferentz gets a little more confidence going before Kill Nation comes to town next weekend. Nobody wants to go in against a team that is in a desperate situation, so a reasonable win this week keeps Iowa at 3-1. Honestly, I think they'll cruise...34-13.

UTEP at WIS

After canning the OL coach 2 games into the season, Bert was back at it again this week demoting free agent QB Danny O'Brien to 2nd string. Another pathetic performance, another sneaky victory, and another major change by Bert as he looks to find the magic of '10 and '11. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the coaching losses and player losses and lack of QB development that Bert has been responsible for over the last few years. UTEP isn't awful, and I honestly don't think WIS can get much going on offense once again. I'll call for the Becky D to eek out another one for Bert and win 20-17. God I hope this keep up all year long...or at least through OCT 20th!!

NFL

I did select CAR tonight...and yeah. Next.

STL-CHI: give me the Rams for the 3rd week in a row. 9 points is crazy! This is not a terrible team. I expect the Bears to play better than they did on Thur, but 9 is too high.

CIN-WAS: Nearly put this one on my list, but the 3.5 is a tough number. I think CIN is better than we think and WAS is not as good as we think. However, I will take WAS in this one.

BUF-CLE: I'm still a believer in my Bills and I still think CLE is terrible. BUF to win and cover.

SF-MIN: Call me crazy, but I think getting a TD might be too much this week. No doubt that SF will find a way to win the game, but the Purple could step up and do something crazy against a 49er team that could be a little disinterested this week. Purple cover.

KC-NO: With this CAR performance tonight, I think even less of NO. Even before this game, I liked KC. Now I wish I would have included it in my picks...instead of CAR!

JAC-IND: I've watched them both, and I don't think either is worth a crap. However, Luck > Gabbert...so I'll take Colts at home.

TB-DAL: The see-saw continues in DAL as I think they roll this week over TB. Tampa is nothing special, and DAL will cover the TD.

NYJ-MIA: tough call here. However, I'm still going against MIA because of Taneyhill. Jets cover.

DET-TEN: I'm very tempted by TEN here. I think DET will underestimate them coming in, but I do believe they are that bad and DET will end up covering the number in a close win.

PHI-ARI: Will Philly finally play a strong game? Will ARI finally play poorly? I think yes on both fronts. PHI wins and covers.

ATL-SD: ATL got way up for their big MNF win, now they travel on a short week and SD is a good team. Super Chargers win this one and cover.

PIT-OAK: I really am not thinking much of PIT this year and OAK is desperate for a W at 0-2. I love the Raiders with the points and think they win outright.

HOU-DEN: Lots of HOU love floating around right now, but DEN still is a really strong team...especially at home. I think Peyton has flashbacks of owning the Texans like he did as a Colt and the Broncos win and cover.

NE-BAL: Toughest call of the week in my opinion. I think BAL is a better team right now, but NE getting points off a loss seems to tasty to pass up, right? Well, I'll buck the trend and say BAL wins and covers.

GB-SEA: SEA got their big win last week, I don't think lightning strikes twice. GB wins and covers.

Only 6 dogs for me this week, which is a lot less than usual in the NFL. Should be a fun week as we get the final tune up before conference play begins for most NCAA teams. Gopher Nation needs to show up big-time Saturday night and push the squad to a win over the Orange!!

Good Luck!!

Week 3 Preview

The timeless shot of a purple Brian Kelly kicks off Week 3 of the Football Challenge with the feature game of the week being Kelly's Irish visiting Sparty.

First, we have a lot of action tonight with the RUT-USF game (2 guys on each) and Bears at Packers (6 on Bears and 8 on Pack). As of right now, it looks like RUT and GB is the best combo to have.

The consensus card for the week looks like this:
1.BAL 2.MNGOPHERS, 3.SF, 4.DAL, 5.OHIOST, 6.HOU, 7.USC, 8.NO, 9.NE, 10.VT, 11.MSU, 12.MINVIKINGS, 13.SD, 14.DEN, 15.UMASS

A very interesting list. Gophers are the #2 most popular play of the week! Wow, they better come through! Out of a group of over 60 games, and the Purple and Gophs make the top 15 plays of the week?!? Not sure if that's scary or a good thing. Considering the way these picks have gone it seems like we'll be lucky with a split.

CAL AT OHIOST
This looked like an easy one to me. You have a CAL team that has played poorly twice, is traveling across the country for an early game, and has a battle with USC on deck...yeah...I LOVE the Buckeyes in this one. I don't think it will be close...OHIOST 38-10.

WMU AT MINNESOTA
WMU is going to spread it out and throw it 100 times in this one, so the improved Gopher D will be tested. However, I don't think the 3-3-5 scheme that the undersized WMU D runs will do much to slow down Marquies and company if they execute like they did last week. Controlling the ball and running it down their throat would go a long way to winning this game and keeping the ball away from WMU's passing game. They want a track meet, Goph's will be happy with a snoozer...I'm thinking somewhere in between...3-0 Gophers win 27-20.

NC AT LOU
NC lost a stunner at WF last weekend. This is a Tar Heel team that a lot thought would be near the top of the ACC this season, but with a 1st year coach you have to temper expectations. LOU has looked outstanding. I really like their QB Teddy Bridgewater, and their D has held up enough. I think they'll be jacked to take on this Tar Heel team who is on the road for the 2nd straight week after the emotional loss to WF. I wish it was 3 rather than 3.5, but hopefully it won't matter. I'll take LOU 27-13.

VIR AT GT
VIR probably should have lost to lowly PSU last week, but thanks to a bunch of missed FG's they squeaked out a victory at home. GT, after nearly upsetting VT in week 1, steamrolled a patsy last week. I really think they'll be ready to avenge the loss that VIR put on them last year and cover the 10.5...GT wins 30-17.

ALA AT ARK
ARK suffered a tough loss last week to ULM after losing their starting QB. It sounds like the odds are not good that Wilson will play this week either when Bama comes to town. Saban has his machine finely tuned already, but I had a hard time including this in my picks for the week. Something about giving 19 at ARK just didn't feel right. ARK still has plenty of talent, and I think they might make quite an effort this weekend against the Tide. However, I'll call for the Tide to cover it without Wilson playing...ALA 33-13.

FLA AT TEN
This has to be the most Tennessee couple ever! You know they'll be in attendance for the big one against the Gators this weekend. The Vols have some renewed life after a nice start to the season. The offense looks adequate and explosive at times and the D isn't bad either. I thought they'd lose to NCST, but won with a combination of big plays and turnovers. The Gators looked awful against BG but kind of impressive last week in the 2nd half against the Aggies. From what I saw, it looks like Driskell is kind of becoming a QB for this QB starved club. You know their D is ferocious, and on a neutral field I probably pick them to win this game. However, playing at College Station and Knoxville in back to back weeks is a tough task for any team, so I'm expecting a bit of a letdown and a late loss and cover for the Gators...VOLS win, Gators cover...24-23.

ASU AT MIZZOU
Mizzou kind of pooped the bed in their SEC debut against GEO last week. They made it a game, but then a couple of dumb coaching decisions and bad plays made it look ugly by the end. ASU crushed the Zook-less Zookers at home and are off to a blazing 2-0 start. I'm really kind of confused by this one. On one hand, I think MIZZ should rebound with another home game and make up for the big loss of last weekend. I also think ASU is still a mystery, beating an over-hyped Illini team without their starting QB is really not a big deal. So in my mind, they've proven nothing yet. But, I think the slimy guy Graham has them playing well, and MIZZ will be a slow starter on a hangover from their biggest game ever last week. I'll call upset and ASU winning 34-31.

USC AT STAN
I nearly included this in my picks for the week, but in the end decided to leave it out. Frankly, I don't think STAN is anywhere near the team we've watched the last few years. Harbaugh and Luck had a lot to do with the school's success over that span, and without them they seem very average to me. USC, on the other hand, is loaded and looking for revenge against STAN. Barkley has never won there and I think he wants to. I think it could be ugly...USC 41-21.

ND AT SPARTY
It's a really tough line on this one. I didn't bet it, because I feel like it really could be a FG game in the end and the whole world loves Sparty in this one...another scary sign. I think ND, like usual, is overrated. And I really love Sparty this year with the best D in the B1G and a great running game. However, I'm going with my gut for a FG game and taking the doggy ND to cover...Sparty wins 24-21.

BYU AT UTAH
The yearly "Holy War" is always a classic. Last year UTAH rolled into Provo and pounded the fighting John Smiths last year. I don't think BYU will forget that. Plus you factor in that UTAH is coming in off an emotional loss to instate rival UTST and lost their starting QB for the year...I think this one is easy...

BYU wins 37-17.

A couple off the radar games this week that we'll keep an eye on...

UNI AT IOWA
Well, the Hogeyes couldn't handle the in-state Cyclones, so they have to take a step down and give the Panthers a shot. Honestly, I don't know if this one is a slam dunk as bad as they have looked in the first 2 weeks. UNI nearly beat a similarly struggling Vadger team in Week 1, so this one might be doable. Let's hope so.

UTST AT WIS
This was kind of how every WIS/GB fan was feeling this Monday. One OL coach later, Bert and his club need to get prepped to play a good UTST team on Saturday. I have to believe that the fightin' Beckys will get it done and beat a UTST team that just won their National Championship game by beating UTAH last week. I'm just curious to see if they can get it together and show signs of life on offense or not. Who knows, but I'll be watching just to keep them on the radar. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.


NFL PICKS

This is maybe my favorite week for NFL betting in the entire season. The overreactions on the lines and the picks are everywhere. I'm afraid we might see some ugly NFL records this week...we'll see I guess.

CHI-GB: Against my better judgement I went with CHI in this one. It's 13-3 right now, but I still think there is a chance. I expected a better offensive performance out of the Bears, but it's not over yet.

TB-NYG: I like the Giants here. TB coming off a big W, but more importantly, the G-men can't start the year 0-2 at home...much like the Pack.

NO-CAR: I'm not sure that this NO team is worth anything. To me, this is looking like it could just be a punt in 2012 and they'll rebound for next year. CAR should come back strong from their poor performance last week and I think they win this one outright.

ARI-NE: ARI is not sure who will QB, NE is really good again. However, covering 13.5 could be tricky against an ARI team with a decent D and some scoring ability. Especially with the Pats having a big game on deck with BAL...I'll go Cards to cover.

MIN-IND: Oh boy, could it be true? 2-0 for the Purple? It's crazy, but I think it happens. IND won't stop anyone all year, especially with Freeney out. I think IND will score on the Purple, but Ponder scores more and Vikes move to 2-0 with a cover...30-27.

BAL-PHI: Alright, we have 18! guys on BAL and 1 on PHI this week. Guess who that guys is? Here's my logic (if any of you remember NFL week 2 last year the same thing happened). BAL looked great on MNF and housed a bad CIN team. That was an emotional division win for them. Now they go on the road for a game that in the big scheme of things, is meaningless. Plus they have a large one with NE on deck, and it's a short week for them. PHI is in must win mode against a team that likely won't care nearly as much. I'm telling you guys...PHI is the play. (TEN beat BAL in a similar spot in Wk 2 last year as a home dog).

KC-BUF: Everyone went abandon ship on BUF after the beatdown the Jets gave them. I disagree. First, Romeo Crennel at KC is a bad coach...so that favors BUF. BUF coming off a blowout where nobody gives them a second thought after last week's debacle is a classic week 2 bet on situation. With a line of -3, the book is basically calling these teams even...not close. Bills win easily.

CLE-CIN: CLE may be the worst team around and I'm not sure CIN is that bad. Weeden increases his rating to double figures maybe, but it's not enough as the Bungals win and cover the TD line.

HOU-JAC: A TD home dog in a division game is a dangerous thing. HOU looked good, but I think the Grand Meadow Superlarks could probably play with the Dolphins this year. JAC played well and probably should have beaten the Purple last week. I think they play well and surprise HOU with a close one here. Take JAGS.

OAK-MIA: OAK didn't look good, but I can't pick MIA within a TD of anyone this season. OAK is the play.

DAL-SEA: Another classic overreaction play here. SEA is a really good home team, even with Russ Wilson running the show. DAL couldn't have played better last week, so in typical Cowboys fashion...they'll lay an egg. SEA wins outright.

WAS-STL: Yet again, too much love toward WAS based on one game against a bad defense. STL shoulda/coulda beat DET last week and plays good defense. I think the Rams win this one outright.

NYJ-PIT: Jets on the road after a big win against an angry Steeler team coming off an ugly loss. This seems obvious as well...Steelers.

TEN-SD: Tough call here. I don't think much of either team, but I'll take SD's QB and defense...so SD is the play.

DET-SF: Nobody was more impressive than the 49ers last week so the whole world is jumping aboard for this week against DET. I'm not sure it will be as much of a cake-walk as some are expecting. However, at -6.5, SF is my pick.

DEN-ATL: Finally, for MNF this week, I think I like DEN. I could be sold either way, but I honestly think DEN is the better team here. They really impressed me last week...and Peyton on MNF...forget about it.

That's all we've got for this week. I'm not expecting it, but hopefully it will come close to being as enjoyable as last weekend! We'll see...Good Luck!!

Week 2 Wrap up

BAL came through for Bomb to lock up the Week 2 title, congrats Bomb.

Here are the current overall standings:

• Overall, we went 180-210 (46.2%) last week
• 83-99 in NFL (45.6%)
• 97-111 in NCAA (46.6%)
• Consensus 15 card went 6-9 this week
• Average points for the week was 13.8, 15 guys beat the average this week
• Only 7 guys broke the .500 barrier for the week
• My preview picks were 5-3 in NCAA and 7-8 in NFL

Week 3 lines will be coming out shortly.

Week 2 - MNF Update

2 men remain alive for the title of Week 2 Champ heading into the MNF double header tonight.

 SCENARIO 1
Bomb wins with a BAL cover or tie (-6) in game 1 of the double header.
SCENARIO 2
Hammer stays alive with a CIN cover in game 1, and would have to sweat out the late nighter and SD -1 at OAK to try and take home the cash for Week 2. If both the Bengals and Chargers don't cover, then Bomb will be our Week 2 champion.

I'll send out the complete recap tomorrow along with updated standings for the season and Week 3 lines.

RIGHT & WRONG

Here's a quick breakdown of where I was good and where I was bad in regards to the preview picks for this week:

NFL
RIGHT
STL - should have beat the Kittys, but still held on for a cover. Call your friends who had DET in a suicide yesterday and make sure they survived the dreaded 1 and done in their pool.
PHI - I knew they would be flakey as an 8 point road fav but didn't have the balls to pick CLE. 1/2 credit I guess on this one.
SF/GB - I knew the 49ers would be able to put the clamps down on the high powered Paaacker offense, but I didn't expect the 49ers offense to play so well.
TB - loved this game all week, and it played out pretty much as expected. Cam was over hyped and the TB D was underrated once again. Along with my guy Josh Freeman doing just enough to pull out a win.

WRONG
IND - liked what IND offense could do but forgot to consider that the main reason they were terrible last season was that D. Playing against a really good looking Bears offense was not considered in my +9 Indy pick, and that's why it wasn't close.
RG3 - wow. Maybe I'm wrong about this guy. Winning your first career game impressively at NO, which is a top 3 toughest place in the league to play, is very impressive. Not sold yet, but I'll be watching a lot closer next week.
BUF - hated my pick about mid day on Sunday as I read/heard everyone else jumping on BUF as well. NYJ were getting no respect and needed this one way more than BUF did. I still expect BUF to have a better season, but for Sunday I was very much on the wrong side.
PIT - they were lacking a bunch of players due to injury, which I didn't realize. But they just got outplayed. DEN is a tough place to win, but I was surprised at how well the DEN D played. Peyton looked like he hadn't missed a beat - DEN could be team to beat in west.


NCAA
RIGHT
IOWA - that was a tough game to watch. If ISU had a clue they could have scored 2-3 more TD's and made it a laugher. Even with all of the breaks Iowa received, that offense was sooooo inept that they couldn't even see the endzone. The offense looks uncreative and slow...and I love it.
WIS - my friends to the south looked awful, but I think my friends to the east take the cake for worst performance of the week. What the hell happened to this Baaaadger club? They can't run, they can't pass, they can't really do much of anything. The always calm and collected Bert Bielema is preaching patience and stay the course....errr, wait, how about Bert's quick reaction on firing brand new OL coach only 2 games into the season!! Wow...panic button engaged!!
MN - the Gophs actually impressed me and played even better than I had hoped on Saturday. Defensively dominant throughout the game - running the ball at will, and throwing it better than last Thursday. The end results was as comfortable of a win as I have experienced in quite some time with this team. Good stuff.
FLA - this one played out as I expected with the Gators surviving the early rush from the up tempo Aggies and leaning on their D and running game to win it when it counted.
LSU/WASH - what a beatdown. Maybe Sark would be better off saving the theatrics and animal importing for weeks where they play a team that isn't LSU.

WRONG
AUB/MISS ST - AUB offensively seems to be awful. I didn't watch much of their opener and assumed they could put some points on the board. Well, looks like I was wrong. MISST and TE Timmy are undefeated and beat someone from the SEC West not named Ole Miss for the first time in forever.
UCLA - Husker nation couldn't keep up with the Bruins on Saturday night. I thought it might be a scary game, but the athletic ability that UCLA showed on offense was impressive. I knew they had the athletes, always have, but it appears as if Mora is finding the right way to utilize that speed and win some games in LA. NEB wrapped up an awful showing for the B1G in week 2.
GEO - they put the gas down in the 4th quarter and showed MIZZOU what it's like to play SEC football vs. cruising against KAN and TT every week. GEO D went on lock down and the potent offense started to light it up late to help the Dogs put MIZZOU in the cellar to start the SEC season.


All in all it was quite possibly one of the most fun weekends of football in recent memory. Gophers impress and house a bad team for the first time in forever. Iowa and Becky look completely awful and lose a non conference game. Purple looks shaky, but actually doesn't lose a close game in the end, and GB goes down to the 49ers at home. If the next 20 weeks resemble anything close to this, it's going to be a really fun year in 2012.

Week 2 Preview

Not sure about you guys, but nothing says 2012 NFL Kickoff quite like No Doubt. What year is it again? How bizarre was that choice last night? 


Week 2 signals the true start of the Football Challenge with the NFL starting things up for the season. It's interesting to see the different strategies with the game breakouts that each player is going with. A lot of guys seem to gravitate to playing 10 NFL and 5 NCAA, while some do the reverse. I don't necessarily set limits on either when doing my picks and just try to find as many good plays as I can, regardless of the league. But I've never come close to sniffing 1st place, so who knows. With that, here are your previews for the biggest games of the week.

First, here are the most popular picks (5-10 last week):
WIS, NE, DET, NEB, STAN, NYG (L), BUF, BAL, OAK, MIN, ATL, OHIOST, PHI, GEO, HOU(nfl)

Based on last week's results from this group, the less your list looks like this the better off you'll be.

We have 2 early leaders after 1 night, MS and MM picked DAL last night. 10 of you were on the NYG and have started Week 2 in a hole.

MIAMI at KANSAS STATE (-7)
I didn't like Miami last weekend at BC, but the Eagles and their brutal turnovers managed to give that one to the Canes. Miami did look explosive on offense, but defensively I think they are full of holes. I also don't like their chances playing consecutive road games to start the year. KST is solid, I don't think they are 10 win good like last season, as flukey as it was, but I think they are a well coached team that can exploit teams like Miami. I like KST in this on 33-21.

AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI ST (-3)

If you haven't heard, our legendary former leader TE Timmy got a job a couple of weeks ago coaching WR's for Mississippi State in the SEC. Do you think it's a coincidence that in their first game this year, the Bulldogs came out and tripped over their smoke machine and started a giant pile up before even reaching the field for their first game? I don't. I've been waiting for MISS ST to make their big move in the SEC for the last couple of years, and frankly, I'm not convinced it will happen in 2012. Auburn doesn't look like anything special, but they really have owned the Bulldogs the last few years. In fact they have beat them 4 times in a row, including the classic 3-2 victory in Starkville in 2008. That one set football back a few years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see something like that again this season. The only concern I have with AUB is coming into a hostile environment after a tough loss to CLEM last week. But AUB has won here 5 times in a row, and I won't believe in MSU until they prove it to me. AUB wins 13-10.

IOWA STATE at IOWA (-4)

Those of you who have been with us in the Football Challenge for a couple of years know what this is. The "rejected before anybody ever even won it" Cy-Hawk trophy. No matter how many times I see this, I can't help but laugh. Was this trophy supposed to go as a reward to the winner? I think a better use would have been for the loser to be forced to display it for a year in embarrassment. Anyway, this trophy never stuck, but it lives on in my heart every time this game is played. This year's version of the Cy-Hawk game should be interesting...if you're into that sort of thing. The 'Clones looked pretty good against Tulsa last week in what is expected to be a pretty rough season for Paul Rhoads and the boys based on their killer schedule. The mighty Hogeyes had a struggle against NoILL last weekend in game that they really should have lost. Based on what I saw, Vandenberg won't even make it to the B1G season healthy because that line was getting whipped repeatedly by a down NoILL team. Iowa's D played okay, but once again they struggled with a running QB. So what do I expect this week, well, the Hogeyes traditionally struggle with their little sisters from Ames, so it will probably happen again. Honestly, I'm not really sure who the better team is this year. I honestly think the Clones may have an edge offensively, but playing at Kinnick could be the difference. I think a costly turnover or 2 by Iowa's 6th string RB (who is now their starter) costs them late and the Clones start the year 2-0 before losing 9 of their last 10. Clones win 16-12.

FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M

A&M gets to open their SEC slate with a home game against a vulnerable FLA team. I really thought the SEC would be more evil than this to one of their newcomers, but how about this gift...a major program that's a little down and being coached by a man who was supposed to be coaching at A&M's #1 rival right now? This looks like a perfect storm for those in Aggieland...in theory. However, we still have to play the games, and when you look at the matchup it might not be so rosy for the Aggies. So yes, FLA has their problems on offense and appears to not be able to throw the ball much at all with their rotating QB's, but their defense is freaky loaded with athletes and Muschamp can coach D. The Aggies are playing their 1st game of the year after the cancelled tilt last week in Louisiana, so they are a bit of a mystery. We know Kevin Sumlin is their first year coach and he's going to come in and implement the crazy throw it around 75 times kind of offense that he had at Houston. They are also starting a Freshman at QB in this offense. I'm not sure about you, but no matter where this game is being played, I don't want a Freshman leading a team with a brand new throw it every down offense against a defense like Florida. I think that has nightmare written all over it, and will be the difference maker in the game...GATORS 34-21.

WISCONSIN at OREGON STATE (+8)

 

I thought we were going to have a great start to the season with WIS and IOWA going down in week 1, but they both pulled out ugly victories. However, I think the whole world understands that team Becky is no where near the level they have been at the last 2 seasons (but will still get to the B1G title game, damn you OHIOST!). Bert the donkey lost his OC and with that a ton of the staff followed Paul (Jesus) Chryst to PITT, so Bert had to start over with a lot of new coaches this year. A new season also means some new free agent shopping for a QB since Bert is not capable of actually recruiting and developing his own players at the most important position. Bottom line, offense isn't the same, QB isn't the same, team isn't the same. Oregon State is kind of a mysterious team this season. They were terrible last season, but Mike Riley is a good coach and always seems to get this team into a bowl game when you least expect it. Corvallis sounds like a nasty place to play, and Riley has had a lot of success there in the past few years. WIS as an 8 point favorite on the road against a competent opponent seems like a bad bet right now. I'll go Beavers to cover, but Becky narrowly escapes 28-27.

WASHINGTON at LSU (-23.5)

 

I kind of believed in Steve Sarkisian as a decent hire at Washington 3 years ago. But after reviewing his record (19-19) and his latest attempt at motivation (bringing in a bengal tiger to practice because they are playing the Tigers...see what he did there) I have to say he's really just looking like a train wreck. The team has, in my opinion, under achieved since his arrival. And stunts like this are just plain stupid (see Brewster, Tim). The guy seems a lot more rah-rah than a good coach should be, and that could mean disaster in the Bayou this weekend. LSU is loaded. They toyed with NTEX last week and didn't cover but dominated completely when the 1st and 2nd strings were in there. I think LSU's D will dominate...shocker, I know...and the Huskies will end up like Siegfried or was it Roy...whatever. LSU wins 45-14.

NEBRASKA at UCLA (+5)

This is a tough one for me. I really didn't think much of UCLA coming into the season, but they looked impressive last week. They way they beat Rice was better than any performance I can remember from the entire Neuheisel era. So I'm wondering if maybe things are turning the corner. They have players, they can recruit with anyone, but they need leadership and coaching to turn the ship around in a hurry. NEB comes in off an impressive win over SOMISS in which Uncle Rico threw for over 300 yards. However, they lost Burkhead and he looks very questionable for this week. I don't think you can replace that guy, and they won't be able to depend on Rico to throw for all those yards and TD's again this week. However, I can't jump on the UCLA band wagon until they prove something...so I go Huskers 35-24.

GEORGIA at MIZZOU (+3)

Another SEC opener at home for the newbie Tigers...again, I don't get it. GEO looked like crap last week, believe me I watched it intently in Vegas (may have lost a 2nd half wager on it...maybe). MIZZOU, in my opinion should have better luck in year 1 of the SEC because they have a system in place and a coach with experience. I don't think they'll do great, but I kind of like them in this one. This one looks like a total coin flip to me. I don't trust GEO's defense, and I'm not sure I love their running game either. You know the MIZZOU crowd will be ready for the SEC opener, so I think I'll take a doggy on this one and go Tiger in a stunner 24-23.

NEW HAMPSHIRE at GOPHERS (??)

Oh boy, it's that time of year where we welcome in an FCS opponent that is pretty solid and pray to god we don't lose again. Stop me if you've heard this before, but I think this could finally be the year we beat an FCS team like a B1G school is supposed to. Apparently, NH runs a crazy quick tempo offense similar to OKST or ORE without the athletes. I honestly think our defense is improved and we can contain something like this. I know, it's kind of a stretch, but based on the performance I saw in Vegas last Thursday, I think this team has improved. What? 3 OT's to beat UNLV and we're better? Yeah, I think so. You guys know I'm glass half full guy when it comes to my club, but I really can't remember watching us dominate a team running the ball and stopping the run like we did last week. If Gray completes only 1 or 2 of the deep ball misses he had and we don't have the 2 ugly turnovers I think that game could have been very ugly. Obviously, good teams don't do those kinds of things, so we'll see if we can get there...but my hopes are high. This weekend's game will probably be tight, but I think a good start is critical. We should be able to run the ball all day on these guys, so hopefully demoralizing them with that will do the trick. I'll go out on a limb and say GOPHERS 38-20.

NFL - here are some quick hitters in the NFL for Week 1...not nearly the passion around it like I have for NCAA, but I do a hell of a lot better on picking winners in the big leagues!!

IND at CHI (-9): kind of afraid of this one, but taking an underrated Colts team getting 9. Scary thing is an aggressive Bears D could cause some problems, but I think INDY will be better than we think.

JAC at MIN (-3.5): might be the only time all year you can take Purple Team as a home favorite. JAC is a wreck, I know Purple is too, but come on man...Purple win 9-3.

BUF at NYJ (-3): loving me some Bills in this one. I'm not sure how they are getting 3 here...NYJ are not a good looking club and will be a disaster this season. BUF looks like a potential playoff team to me.

MIA at HOU (-12.5): never ever give this many points this early in the season. I know it's a total mismatch, but 12.5 in the NFL is not a good call in week 1. I'll take HOU is I'm forced to pick someone, but I think you're playing with fire if you're betting more than pride on this one.

NE at TEN (+6): a possible live home dog in week 1. NE is great...duh...but I think TEN could be a sneaky play in this one. NE could start slowly and TEN could exploit their D on the ground. I hate Jake Locker, so I didn't put it in my picks, but I'll take TEN if forced to pick a side.

STL at DET (-8): one of my best bets for the week - STL. I really think they are an improved team and I love Fisher as a coach. DET will be a good team, but they aren't good enough to be more than a TD favorite against a potentially decent team like STL. I'll take Rams in a cover.

WAS at NO (-8.5): no matter what you all think, I'm not sold on the legend of RG3. Why? Well, look at Art Briles, his coach at BAY, history with the top NFL picks his QB friendly system has produced...Andre Ware and David Klingler...wow, that's historically bad. He doesn't impress me. NO at home, no matter who is coaching, is a lethal weapon and 40 points waiting to happen. I'll take the 'Aints.

PHI at CLE (+8): large home dog in week 1, another dangerous spot. PHI can be flakey, so I avoided this as a play. But CLE is really awful looking. I'll take PHI.

ATL at KC (+3): another dangerous home dog. I don't think much of KC as a team, but they always play well at home. ATL is notorious for over-hype and bad starts to seasons, so this looks like a tricky spot. However, I'll take ATL.

SF at GB (-5): not sure what to think on this one. I believe a lot of people like SF again this season and they do have a great defense. However, GB at home is very tough. Even though the Pack plays no defense, I'm not sure the 49ers have the power to exploit it. I'll take SF in a grinder to cover 21-20.

SEA at ARI (+3): this is definitely the game, even with free Sunday Ticket for week 1, that I don't think anyone in their right mind should watch. SEA is starting Russell Wilson...k. ARI is starting John Skelton...oh boy. Well, I guess someone has to win, so I'll take the home dog Cards.

CAR at TB (+3): love the Bucs in this one. Only thing going against them is hiring Schiano, but I think they can overcome that to put the first dent in the over-hyped Panthers this year. Really vegas? Cam Newton makes them good enough to be a 3 point fav on the road in a division game in week 1? I don't think so. Give me TB and 3 Cam picks.

PIT at DEN (-1.5): I'm not sure the right team is favored here either. DEN has obviously upgraded a lot at QB, but the rest of the group still isn't that impressive to me. PIT is still a top 3 or 4 AFC team and a nightmare to play against. PIT with points seems like an easy money winner here.

CIN at BAL (-6) I, like most of you, went with the Ravens here for the tiebreaker. I just don't think that much of CIN and I like BAL every year. 

SD at OAK (+1): no a big fan of either of these 2, but I'll take OAK at home getting a point.

9000 words later I finally wrap it up. The first full weekend of the Football Challenge...enjoy it everyone! Good Luck!!

 

Week 1 Recap

Here are the Final Standings from week 1:

• The popular card from last week would have gone 5-10, not exactly in the black.
•  The average score was 12.8 points (6-9 record).
•  In total, we went 167-208 last week for a 44.5% win total. Pretty brutal start by the group as a whole. 
•  9 of the 26 guys finished over .500 (8-7 or better)
•  Only 3 guys were correct on the tiebreaker game, even though it didn't come into play.
• Mike Thomas has built a 6 point lead after 1 week 

I have had a couple of questions about updates throughout the weekend game. I will try to get them out there as frequently as possible, but that is also part of the reason why I give you all the games on the Thursday Preview - so you can score at home if you'd like. I will try and send out an update during the day and at the end of the day on Saturday and the same for Sunday if I am able. Obviously, it won't work out that way every weekend, but I'll update you all via email as much as I can so you can know where you stand.

Week 2 starts tonight - many have submitted picks already, but they are all due by NOON TOMORROW (Thursday).

I don't have an official pick tonight...but I might have a lean against these guys!!

 Good Luck!