HATE WEEK Part I of 2012 is here as the mighty Maroon and Gold make the journey down to Iowa this weekend. We'll get to some of the scary confidence that this group has in the Gophs in a moment but until then...
First of all, let's look at the popular picks for the week. These actually fared okay last week:
#1 choice...MN GOPHERS by 16 of us, love the confidence but hate that everyone sees this as obvious because that usually means it's not. NYG, STAN, SD, NE, CHI, SF, CIN, GB, WIS, ORE, BAL, MIN, MIZZ, STL.
Once again the Gophers and Vikings make the list....as well as the Badgers and Packers. Interesting. Guess how many people like the Hawkeyes this week against the Gophs...ZERO. Once again, yikes.
NCAA
7-3 again last week in my picks for the 10 biggest games of the weekend. You'd think I would just start playing these games, but I'm not that sharp. Why play these and go 7-3 when I can pick 3 MAC games and 3 CUSA games and go 1-5.
1st game of the day, 11AM Saturday morning. Like I said before, 16 on MN and 0 on IA. I've had an uneasy feeling about this one since last Saturday ended. It's one of the 2 games per year that I care about the most, and MN has won 2 in a row. The Killers come into Iowa City with a 4-0 mark and a lot of momentum. Iowa comes in at 2-2 with a 1-2 home record and a lot to prove. This is kind of a complete role reversal from the last couple of years. I was happy to see the line posted at 6.5-7.5, because coming in as a favorite or very small dog is not a good spot. MN needs to be in that underdog role, so with the line for us at 6.5 I feel like there's a chance to have this all work out the right way. The Gophs D is much improved, and Iowa's offense looks awful. They lean 100% on their 2nd string FB turned starting HB to move the ball 4 yards at a time and score all of their points. I'm not sure what has happened to Vandenberg, but him and that receiving crew look terrible this season. I don't think the new OC is helping things...remember, this is a guy who's brilliance struggled at times with Texas-type athletes so sputtering at Iowa isn't exactly a shocker to me. I know it's crazy, but barring a $hit-ton of turnovers by Shortell and company, I can't see Iowa scoring a ton of points in this one. Our defense hasn't been amazing against the run, but we really haven't prepared to stop the run by playing a lot of quick/short passing teams the last 3 weeks. UNLV is a running club, and after the 1st quarter they couldn't run the ball at all. So I think the Gophers defense will limit the running game and keep this game close. The biggest concern for me is that the offense needs to do something and not make mistakes. Shortell in a road start will be nervous and likely struggle at times. Iowa, as bad as they've been, still plays pretty decent defense. (They did give up 32 to CMU last week, but I'm sure that was a fluke just like FLOYD 2010 and FLOYD 2011 games). Kirkwood and the running game has been solid, but this game will be won with a couple of big passing plays from Max and the receivers. So far, they have done a wonderful job of taking care of the ball, so if this continues and they find a couple of explosive plays in the passing game, then I think this turns out well. To me, it looks like a FG game either way, but obviously, I'll go with my club...GOPHERS KEEP FLOYD 23-20.
BAYLOR AT WV
Holy Offense Batman! Yeah, I know, I thought that last week too in the AZ-ORE game, but I really think this one has to be a shootout. BAY may as well not even field a defense, it would end with the same result. WV does play more D, but I think Holgo loves a shootout much more than a 20-19 nail biter. Both team live off of big plays and turnovers, so I expect a lot of fireworks in this one. With that being said, give me the +12.5 and the Baylor Bears. WV wins by a TD.
ARKANSAS AT A&M
So I had this one on the list for awhile early in the week, but I ultimately removed it. You know ARK has the talent to play much better than they have so far this year. They will have that effort eventually that jumps up and shocks the hell out of everyone in a big spot. The only question is will that be this week? On the flip side, I think A&M can be really good, and may blow out ARK. The Hogs play no D and turn it over a lot, so I think that continues and A&M cover the number on this one...but look out AUB next week because ARK might beat you by 30!
CMU AT NILL
I know, not really a major game, but I only had 9 I liked on the list so it's a filler. I chose it because I think it is an obvious pick that would be worth wagering a bundle on in Sin City (T-22 days and counting btw). CMU coming off an emotional high with the win in the land of Meth and Piggys, and now going on the road for the 2nd of 3 straight road games to open conference play. Not a fun spot. NILL is a quality club that plays very well on both sides of the ball and could really make some noise if they stopped turning it over. This will be U-G-L-Y...NILL 49-16.
OHIOST AT MSU
This feels like a B1G matchup that should be played in late NOV and not a sunny afternoon in September. Both teams are built in similar ways with a focus on running the ball and playing D. Neither QB throws it very well at all. Both are off of underwhelming wins last week, clearly both coaches were focusing on this one vs. spending time on the lesser opponents of last Saturday. OHIOST has really been very average on D this year, but they have thrived on the turnovers. MSU has been dominant on D, as expected, but their only impressive win is a 41-7 beatdown at CMU (yes, that 32-31 over Iowa CMU) in Week 2. The Sparty offense scares me in this one, as they don't necessarily need a great D to slow them down. I think OHIOST hangs in on D and waits for Maxwell to make a mistake, while Urban finds a couple of sneaky ways to score points (special teams? trick plays?) and ends up winning this one in East Lansing...Buckeyes 17-16.
TENNESSEE AT GEO
Despite the Week 1 belief that TEN was a contender this year, I really think Dooley is going to be out of a job and this team is going nowhere fast. GEO looks dominant to me so far, and they may unload in this one and help Dooley pack his bags a little faster than expected. It could be embarassing...GEORGIA 45-20.
TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE
Do I really think this is a big game? Sort of. Am I pretending it's big as a part of HATE WEEK to annoy the 2nd or 3rd best team in Iowa...yep. Cyclone nation feels like they might still have another win on the slate as they welcome in an also undefeated TT team that has destroyed a schedule that includes 3 schools who probably couldn't even consolidate to field a roster that would even keep it close against LeRoy-Ostrander. So yeah, I'm not real impressed with who the Red Raiders have beaten, but to their credit they have pounded everyone in Leach-like fashion. Team Natty Lite has a couple of nice wins over Tulsa and Iowa so far, and being a home dog in an evening game should provide a little extra motivation. As you would expect, the TT numbers are absurd so I really can't even use those to predict anything in this one. ISU is playing very strong D, but offensively they really struggle (see 15 turnovers vs. Iowa in the 9-6 thriller). When it comes down to it, I just think the Red Raiders, even if the Clones slow them down a bit, will score 25-35 points. I really don't think the Clones are capable of that. Sorry guys, you're still the best team in Iowa, but you lose this one...TT 34-24.
TEXAS AT OKST
Lots of questions in this one. Is OKST for real? AZ handled them, but that was the first road start for a Freshman QB. They are a very good team in Stillwater, but will the motivation for Texas be high enough after losing the last couple in a row to the Cowboys? The jury is still out for me with Texas. I love their athletes, but they have not been good the last couple of years so why would I think they are better in 2012? The D still gave up 31 to lowly Ole Miss their last time out, which means OKST could score 62 on them. However, with 2 teams that have relatively identical stats and strength of schedule, I'll got with the team that's averaging +2 turnovers per game over the team that is averaging -2 TO per game...TEXAS 39-30.
WISCONSIN AT NEBRASKA
You know who the whole world is cheering for in this one and the force begins to even itself out after the last couple of years of ALL WISCONSIN/GREEN BAY WINNING EVERYTHING. Thank god most of us survived that short-lived period of modern history. 2012 is a year where a lot of teams are going to want a little payback on Bert and the gang...and it starts this week. WIS may not have a win this year if not for their solid D. The offense is averaging a putrid 4.6 ypp and they frequently turn the ball over. They destroyed NEB in Madison last year, I know we've all tried to forget it, but they did. NEB looks okay this year. As has been the trend, the Pelini D (formerly known as the black shirts) really isn't that scary once again this year. Uncle Rico looks like he learned to throw a little, but I'm still not convinced. This is that classic, "oh my god NEB is much better and will want to run it up so they'll win by 50!" kind of trap game. WIS will find a way to hang around and stay in this thing...you just have to know they will. NEB win (which is all that matters for some of us) but WIS covers this big number...NEB 23-17.
ORE ST AT ARIZONA
Alright Zona, you disappointed the hell out of me last week, so it's redemption time. OREST, despite their 2 nice wins so far, really don't impress me. I think Zona, in the new copper helmets, comes out firing and converts on a majority of those 6 redzone trips that they misfired on last week. The Beavers don't put together a great effort 2 weeks in a row, both on the road, and AZ extracts a little revenge for the blowout last week. Zona wins and cover 35-24.
There's the magic 10 - mark down another 7-3, right? I only used 3 in my plays for the week, so we'll see.
NFL
As beautifully as the NCAA picks are going for me this year, my usual strength of the NFL is not so hot. A god-awful 4-10 performance last week was depressing. I re-assessed, got back to basics, and bought a new set of darts...so here we go:
CLE-BAL: Obviously, this one is going right now, but I did like CLE in it, which looks like probably the right side.
SEA-STL: Loving STL for the 4th week in a row, WTF? How can you not bet against this SEA team on a short week off the ultimate emotional win, traveling cross country for a division game as a road favorite? Yes, I wish they were all this easy. STL wins.
SD-KC: I kind of think this one is a no-brainer as well. KC with an improbable come from behind win last week (still have Romeo as coach) against a better Charger team that got blown away at home. Loving SD in this one.
PURPLE-DET: Call me crazy, drunk, high, whatever...but I think this Purple team is better than I thought. I know, it's one big win, but I like what I see. And they are in a good spot here at DET to play motivated football and win again. Vikes win outright!! SKOL!!
NE-BUF: All my numbers and research tell me BUF is the play, but I feel like this pick has to come down to one stat...NE is 1-2 after 2 straight L's, do you think they'll be motivated? Yep. Take NE.
SF-NYJ: Niners are a good team that was uninterested last week. NYJ are a bad team that got lucky last week. SF is the pick.
TEN-HOU: Wow is TEN bad...and they beat DET! This will be a laugher. Pick HOU.
CAR-ATL: Cam Newton pissed me off enough last week to maybe never pick this team again, or at least this week. I'll take ATL to cover the big number.
OAK-DEN: Very tough call here for me. I've been picking DEN too much because they are getting more credit than they deserve. It's a toss up to me, but I'll try Peyton and the home field in this one.
CIN-JAC: Another one of my plays...JAC. CIN in back to back road games and off a big win in WAS is not a good spot. JAGS are a live home dog this week.
MIA-ARI: Undefeated Cards, I still don't know if they are that good. But MIA is worse...However, it's a major letdown spot for ARI so MIAMI is the pick.
WAS-TB: Loving RG3 in this one. I think the bandwagon has slowed since the NO win in week 1, which means it's a perfect time to jump on them this week. WAS +3.
NO-GB: Have to like GB after MNF, but my god does NO have to be ready to play some extreme desperation football because 0-4 is a death blow. I'll take NO and more than a TD.
NYG-PHI: My Philly club has looked terrible every week. Somehow, they are 2-1. NYG coming off a crushing win over CAR. I believe too much in Reid's history to not think that this team will show up big in this one and win by more than a FG. I'll take Eagles.
CHI-DAL: Pretty even team in my mind, so not sure how this line is more than a FG. But since it is, I'll take advantage and play BEARS +4.
Sorry for the late summary and preview this week - sometimes the FC rhythm gets interrupted by the day job, but until I/we get better at picking these that will continue.
It's a big week - GO GOPHS!
Good Luck.
No comments:
Post a Comment