Week 2 Preview

Not sure about you guys, but nothing says 2012 NFL Kickoff quite like No Doubt. What year is it again? How bizarre was that choice last night? 


Week 2 signals the true start of the Football Challenge with the NFL starting things up for the season. It's interesting to see the different strategies with the game breakouts that each player is going with. A lot of guys seem to gravitate to playing 10 NFL and 5 NCAA, while some do the reverse. I don't necessarily set limits on either when doing my picks and just try to find as many good plays as I can, regardless of the league. But I've never come close to sniffing 1st place, so who knows. With that, here are your previews for the biggest games of the week.

First, here are the most popular picks (5-10 last week):
WIS, NE, DET, NEB, STAN, NYG (L), BUF, BAL, OAK, MIN, ATL, OHIOST, PHI, GEO, HOU(nfl)

Based on last week's results from this group, the less your list looks like this the better off you'll be.

We have 2 early leaders after 1 night, MS and MM picked DAL last night. 10 of you were on the NYG and have started Week 2 in a hole.

MIAMI at KANSAS STATE (-7)
I didn't like Miami last weekend at BC, but the Eagles and their brutal turnovers managed to give that one to the Canes. Miami did look explosive on offense, but defensively I think they are full of holes. I also don't like their chances playing consecutive road games to start the year. KST is solid, I don't think they are 10 win good like last season, as flukey as it was, but I think they are a well coached team that can exploit teams like Miami. I like KST in this on 33-21.

AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI ST (-3)

If you haven't heard, our legendary former leader TE Timmy got a job a couple of weeks ago coaching WR's for Mississippi State in the SEC. Do you think it's a coincidence that in their first game this year, the Bulldogs came out and tripped over their smoke machine and started a giant pile up before even reaching the field for their first game? I don't. I've been waiting for MISS ST to make their big move in the SEC for the last couple of years, and frankly, I'm not convinced it will happen in 2012. Auburn doesn't look like anything special, but they really have owned the Bulldogs the last few years. In fact they have beat them 4 times in a row, including the classic 3-2 victory in Starkville in 2008. That one set football back a few years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see something like that again this season. The only concern I have with AUB is coming into a hostile environment after a tough loss to CLEM last week. But AUB has won here 5 times in a row, and I won't believe in MSU until they prove it to me. AUB wins 13-10.

IOWA STATE at IOWA (-4)

Those of you who have been with us in the Football Challenge for a couple of years know what this is. The "rejected before anybody ever even won it" Cy-Hawk trophy. No matter how many times I see this, I can't help but laugh. Was this trophy supposed to go as a reward to the winner? I think a better use would have been for the loser to be forced to display it for a year in embarrassment. Anyway, this trophy never stuck, but it lives on in my heart every time this game is played. This year's version of the Cy-Hawk game should be interesting...if you're into that sort of thing. The 'Clones looked pretty good against Tulsa last week in what is expected to be a pretty rough season for Paul Rhoads and the boys based on their killer schedule. The mighty Hogeyes had a struggle against NoILL last weekend in game that they really should have lost. Based on what I saw, Vandenberg won't even make it to the B1G season healthy because that line was getting whipped repeatedly by a down NoILL team. Iowa's D played okay, but once again they struggled with a running QB. So what do I expect this week, well, the Hogeyes traditionally struggle with their little sisters from Ames, so it will probably happen again. Honestly, I'm not really sure who the better team is this year. I honestly think the Clones may have an edge offensively, but playing at Kinnick could be the difference. I think a costly turnover or 2 by Iowa's 6th string RB (who is now their starter) costs them late and the Clones start the year 2-0 before losing 9 of their last 10. Clones win 16-12.

FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M

A&M gets to open their SEC slate with a home game against a vulnerable FLA team. I really thought the SEC would be more evil than this to one of their newcomers, but how about this gift...a major program that's a little down and being coached by a man who was supposed to be coaching at A&M's #1 rival right now? This looks like a perfect storm for those in Aggieland...in theory. However, we still have to play the games, and when you look at the matchup it might not be so rosy for the Aggies. So yes, FLA has their problems on offense and appears to not be able to throw the ball much at all with their rotating QB's, but their defense is freaky loaded with athletes and Muschamp can coach D. The Aggies are playing their 1st game of the year after the cancelled tilt last week in Louisiana, so they are a bit of a mystery. We know Kevin Sumlin is their first year coach and he's going to come in and implement the crazy throw it around 75 times kind of offense that he had at Houston. They are also starting a Freshman at QB in this offense. I'm not sure about you, but no matter where this game is being played, I don't want a Freshman leading a team with a brand new throw it every down offense against a defense like Florida. I think that has nightmare written all over it, and will be the difference maker in the game...GATORS 34-21.

WISCONSIN at OREGON STATE (+8)

 

I thought we were going to have a great start to the season with WIS and IOWA going down in week 1, but they both pulled out ugly victories. However, I think the whole world understands that team Becky is no where near the level they have been at the last 2 seasons (but will still get to the B1G title game, damn you OHIOST!). Bert the donkey lost his OC and with that a ton of the staff followed Paul (Jesus) Chryst to PITT, so Bert had to start over with a lot of new coaches this year. A new season also means some new free agent shopping for a QB since Bert is not capable of actually recruiting and developing his own players at the most important position. Bottom line, offense isn't the same, QB isn't the same, team isn't the same. Oregon State is kind of a mysterious team this season. They were terrible last season, but Mike Riley is a good coach and always seems to get this team into a bowl game when you least expect it. Corvallis sounds like a nasty place to play, and Riley has had a lot of success there in the past few years. WIS as an 8 point favorite on the road against a competent opponent seems like a bad bet right now. I'll go Beavers to cover, but Becky narrowly escapes 28-27.

WASHINGTON at LSU (-23.5)

 

I kind of believed in Steve Sarkisian as a decent hire at Washington 3 years ago. But after reviewing his record (19-19) and his latest attempt at motivation (bringing in a bengal tiger to practice because they are playing the Tigers...see what he did there) I have to say he's really just looking like a train wreck. The team has, in my opinion, under achieved since his arrival. And stunts like this are just plain stupid (see Brewster, Tim). The guy seems a lot more rah-rah than a good coach should be, and that could mean disaster in the Bayou this weekend. LSU is loaded. They toyed with NTEX last week and didn't cover but dominated completely when the 1st and 2nd strings were in there. I think LSU's D will dominate...shocker, I know...and the Huskies will end up like Siegfried or was it Roy...whatever. LSU wins 45-14.

NEBRASKA at UCLA (+5)

This is a tough one for me. I really didn't think much of UCLA coming into the season, but they looked impressive last week. They way they beat Rice was better than any performance I can remember from the entire Neuheisel era. So I'm wondering if maybe things are turning the corner. They have players, they can recruit with anyone, but they need leadership and coaching to turn the ship around in a hurry. NEB comes in off an impressive win over SOMISS in which Uncle Rico threw for over 300 yards. However, they lost Burkhead and he looks very questionable for this week. I don't think you can replace that guy, and they won't be able to depend on Rico to throw for all those yards and TD's again this week. However, I can't jump on the UCLA band wagon until they prove something...so I go Huskers 35-24.

GEORGIA at MIZZOU (+3)

Another SEC opener at home for the newbie Tigers...again, I don't get it. GEO looked like crap last week, believe me I watched it intently in Vegas (may have lost a 2nd half wager on it...maybe). MIZZOU, in my opinion should have better luck in year 1 of the SEC because they have a system in place and a coach with experience. I don't think they'll do great, but I kind of like them in this one. This one looks like a total coin flip to me. I don't trust GEO's defense, and I'm not sure I love their running game either. You know the MIZZOU crowd will be ready for the SEC opener, so I think I'll take a doggy on this one and go Tiger in a stunner 24-23.

NEW HAMPSHIRE at GOPHERS (??)

Oh boy, it's that time of year where we welcome in an FCS opponent that is pretty solid and pray to god we don't lose again. Stop me if you've heard this before, but I think this could finally be the year we beat an FCS team like a B1G school is supposed to. Apparently, NH runs a crazy quick tempo offense similar to OKST or ORE without the athletes. I honestly think our defense is improved and we can contain something like this. I know, it's kind of a stretch, but based on the performance I saw in Vegas last Thursday, I think this team has improved. What? 3 OT's to beat UNLV and we're better? Yeah, I think so. You guys know I'm glass half full guy when it comes to my club, but I really can't remember watching us dominate a team running the ball and stopping the run like we did last week. If Gray completes only 1 or 2 of the deep ball misses he had and we don't have the 2 ugly turnovers I think that game could have been very ugly. Obviously, good teams don't do those kinds of things, so we'll see if we can get there...but my hopes are high. This weekend's game will probably be tight, but I think a good start is critical. We should be able to run the ball all day on these guys, so hopefully demoralizing them with that will do the trick. I'll go out on a limb and say GOPHERS 38-20.

NFL - here are some quick hitters in the NFL for Week 1...not nearly the passion around it like I have for NCAA, but I do a hell of a lot better on picking winners in the big leagues!!

IND at CHI (-9): kind of afraid of this one, but taking an underrated Colts team getting 9. Scary thing is an aggressive Bears D could cause some problems, but I think INDY will be better than we think.

JAC at MIN (-3.5): might be the only time all year you can take Purple Team as a home favorite. JAC is a wreck, I know Purple is too, but come on man...Purple win 9-3.

BUF at NYJ (-3): loving me some Bills in this one. I'm not sure how they are getting 3 here...NYJ are not a good looking club and will be a disaster this season. BUF looks like a potential playoff team to me.

MIA at HOU (-12.5): never ever give this many points this early in the season. I know it's a total mismatch, but 12.5 in the NFL is not a good call in week 1. I'll take HOU is I'm forced to pick someone, but I think you're playing with fire if you're betting more than pride on this one.

NE at TEN (+6): a possible live home dog in week 1. NE is great...duh...but I think TEN could be a sneaky play in this one. NE could start slowly and TEN could exploit their D on the ground. I hate Jake Locker, so I didn't put it in my picks, but I'll take TEN if forced to pick a side.

STL at DET (-8): one of my best bets for the week - STL. I really think they are an improved team and I love Fisher as a coach. DET will be a good team, but they aren't good enough to be more than a TD favorite against a potentially decent team like STL. I'll take Rams in a cover.

WAS at NO (-8.5): no matter what you all think, I'm not sold on the legend of RG3. Why? Well, look at Art Briles, his coach at BAY, history with the top NFL picks his QB friendly system has produced...Andre Ware and David Klingler...wow, that's historically bad. He doesn't impress me. NO at home, no matter who is coaching, is a lethal weapon and 40 points waiting to happen. I'll take the 'Aints.

PHI at CLE (+8): large home dog in week 1, another dangerous spot. PHI can be flakey, so I avoided this as a play. But CLE is really awful looking. I'll take PHI.

ATL at KC (+3): another dangerous home dog. I don't think much of KC as a team, but they always play well at home. ATL is notorious for over-hype and bad starts to seasons, so this looks like a tricky spot. However, I'll take ATL.

SF at GB (-5): not sure what to think on this one. I believe a lot of people like SF again this season and they do have a great defense. However, GB at home is very tough. Even though the Pack plays no defense, I'm not sure the 49ers have the power to exploit it. I'll take SF in a grinder to cover 21-20.

SEA at ARI (+3): this is definitely the game, even with free Sunday Ticket for week 1, that I don't think anyone in their right mind should watch. SEA is starting Russell Wilson...k. ARI is starting John Skelton...oh boy. Well, I guess someone has to win, so I'll take the home dog Cards.

CAR at TB (+3): love the Bucs in this one. Only thing going against them is hiring Schiano, but I think they can overcome that to put the first dent in the over-hyped Panthers this year. Really vegas? Cam Newton makes them good enough to be a 3 point fav on the road in a division game in week 1? I don't think so. Give me TB and 3 Cam picks.

PIT at DEN (-1.5): I'm not sure the right team is favored here either. DEN has obviously upgraded a lot at QB, but the rest of the group still isn't that impressive to me. PIT is still a top 3 or 4 AFC team and a nightmare to play against. PIT with points seems like an easy money winner here.

CIN at BAL (-6) I, like most of you, went with the Ravens here for the tiebreaker. I just don't think that much of CIN and I like BAL every year. 

SD at OAK (+1): no a big fan of either of these 2, but I'll take OAK at home getting a point.

9000 words later I finally wrap it up. The first full weekend of the Football Challenge...enjoy it everyone! Good Luck!!