Week 4 Preview

 

Week 4 is here, it actually started last night with a classic KENT at BUFF MACtion. It's a week with a few marquee games (all in the evening) and a tough slate of NFL matchups.

GROUP 15

This went 5-10 again last week, the 15 most popular picks are not a good list to take to the window in Vegas. So for this week, here's what we have:

SF,DET,GB,BUF,ATL,HOU,NYG,PIT,USC.MICH,SYR,MN,STL,DEN,NE

Obviously, all of these won't work out because we have both sides picked on a couple of different matchups, but another 3-12 or 4-11 is likely considering our last 3 weeks.

My College preview picks went 7-3 last week! 70% for a lifetime 45% guy in NCAA Football is crazy!! So I'm expecting something closer to 3-7 this week to keep me from boarding that next red eye to Vegas on a Friday night. NFL picks were a respectable 8-6 last week. So here we go for Week 4 with my first two teams already in action and looking like the wrong sides (CAROLINA?!?! and BOISE)

MIAMI AT GT

I nearly put Miami on the list this week, but their defense has been so porous that I couldn't do it. However, I'll take them getting more than 2 TD's this week at GT for my preview picks. GT is coming off a revenge blowout of VIR, and I expect them to be a little down. MIA's last real game was getting housed by KST, so they have to be ready to avenge that and open ACC play. I'll call for a Canes upset win 30-25.

OREST AT UCLA

The Beavers are still coming off the big WIS victory and UCLA has had a tremendous start to the year by beating NEB and HOU the last couple of weeks. I think UCLA will struggle a little bit more this week and the Beavers will keep this one close. UCLA wins 23-17.

MIZZ AT SC

This one did make my list. 3rd tough game in a row for MIZZOU and their 1st SEC road game. Ruh-roh. SC is real deal on defense and offensively they can do enough to beat you. I think MIZZOU comes in a struggles badly. Their offense hasn't been good all year, and this is a great defense they have to play on the road. I'll say SC rolls through MIZZ 27-7.

CAL AT USC

I was pretty shocked at the USC loss last week. I really didn't think STAN could match up with them, but it seemed to be a lack of toughness and desire that beat the Trojans all night. CAL is a mess. They did nearly beat OHIOST last week, but that may have been their last hurrah. Tedford is on the hot seat, they face a brutal schedule, and I don't think USC will take them lightly. Trojans show up and roll the over matched Bears 44-14.

LSU AT AUB

I think we're all finding out how the great Gene Chizik does when he doesn't have an all-world QB leading his team. Really, there is no excuse to be as pathetic as his last couple teams have been at a school like AUB. He finally got win #1 of the season last week in OT vs. ULM. With 3 more guaranteed L's on the slate, he's got to win all the toss up's to even get this club into a bowl game. No bowl likely means no job for Mean Gene. LSU looks as loaded as ever, and I think we can officially start counting down the days until they play ALA in Game of the Century Part 3 on November 3rd. What will happen this week...well, it may surprise you, but I think AUB may show a little life and make this interesting. I'm expecting the AUB D to play tough and give LSU a fight. I don't think AUB can score at all, but I'll say LSU barely covers 27-6.

MICH AT ND

 Yes, this was the score after 3 quarters last year before all craziness happened and MICH scored 4 4th quarter TD's to win after it looked like they had lost at least twice. ND could not cover anyone last year as Robinson just threw up prayer after prayer and MICH kept catching them. Last week, ND impressed by totally shutting down the Sparty running game and scoring just enough to beat Sparty easily. MICH has not been overly impressive this season. ND is a better team with a better D and revenge on their mind with homefield advantage. Lots to like there...I'll take the Irish 31-20.

KST AT OK

KST is a nice little story through this season and last year, but this is OK on the road. OK doesn't lose home games. KST got rolled big time last year at home against OK, and I think this game could be similar. I like Boomer Sooner to win big...49-20.

SYR AT MN

SYR is getting a lot of love for being a 1-2 team who struggled with Stonybrook last week. Their claim to fame (like the early season 2011 Gophers) was playing close to USC. NW had them beat badly before completely collapsing like all NW Defenses do from time to time. I think SYR is an athletic team that plays pretty well on both sides of the ball, but I don't think they know how to win. Last week was their first win in their last 9! games. They lost 6 straight to end last season and their first 2 this year. So many are calling for them to come into the Bank and win on the road vs. an equally athletic team? I don't see it. The Gophers have questions with some injuries and obviously the new QB. Shortell looked very good last week, but I'm guessing he'll be a little jittery under the lights with the heat on him from the start. This will be the toughest test to date for the Gophs, so they are going to have to play their best game. The defense needs to continue their great play, which I think they can do as SYR runs a very similar look to WMU that they saw last week. Shortell has to make some throws and not get them beat by turning it over. The offense looked a lot different with him in there last week, so lets hope that continues. Running the ball, like always, will be critical for a Gopher W. I think they can do it - a night game with a sell out crowd against a tough opponent...time to make a statement and keep this train rolling while going into the B1G season. Gophs win and cover 30-23.

CLEM AT FSU

This was a tough call for me. I think FSU is definitely for real, and they are playing with a revenge angle from last year when CLEM beat them. CLEM is a nice team, but I have a hard time believing in them, even though they have been impressive throughout the first 3 and all of last year. I think the Noles are the better team, but I'll say they aren't 14 points better this weekend. FSU wins 34-24.

ARIZONA AT OREGON

This may actually be my predicted score in this one. LOTS O' OFFENSE all around for this late nighter. I'm planning on watching it after the Gophs victory and making up a drinking game around every TD and type of TD that can and will be scored in this one. If anyone is interested, text me after the Gopher W and we'll make this work. Not a lot of D on either side, which is why I think AZ +23.5 might be the best bet on the board this week. I really don't see ORE losing, but I don't expect them to stop anyone either. I'm saying Ducks win 66-49.

In other news this week, let's keep an eye on our other 2 favorites.

CMU AT IOWA

The Hogeyes looked like they kind of started to get it together last week. They did lose 2 more RB's, which is ridiculous, but the 2nd string FB playing HB worked....against a power like UNI. Defensively, I think Iowa is fine, but I'm still not sure the offense is much to be afraid of at this point. CMU might be worse than UNI. I don't think much of them at all this season, and I'd actually prefer it if team Ferentz gets a little more confidence going before Kill Nation comes to town next weekend. Nobody wants to go in against a team that is in a desperate situation, so a reasonable win this week keeps Iowa at 3-1. Honestly, I think they'll cruise...34-13.

UTEP at WIS

After canning the OL coach 2 games into the season, Bert was back at it again this week demoting free agent QB Danny O'Brien to 2nd string. Another pathetic performance, another sneaky victory, and another major change by Bert as he looks to find the magic of '10 and '11. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the coaching losses and player losses and lack of QB development that Bert has been responsible for over the last few years. UTEP isn't awful, and I honestly don't think WIS can get much going on offense once again. I'll call for the Becky D to eek out another one for Bert and win 20-17. God I hope this keep up all year long...or at least through OCT 20th!!

NFL

I did select CAR tonight...and yeah. Next.

STL-CHI: give me the Rams for the 3rd week in a row. 9 points is crazy! This is not a terrible team. I expect the Bears to play better than they did on Thur, but 9 is too high.

CIN-WAS: Nearly put this one on my list, but the 3.5 is a tough number. I think CIN is better than we think and WAS is not as good as we think. However, I will take WAS in this one.

BUF-CLE: I'm still a believer in my Bills and I still think CLE is terrible. BUF to win and cover.

SF-MIN: Call me crazy, but I think getting a TD might be too much this week. No doubt that SF will find a way to win the game, but the Purple could step up and do something crazy against a 49er team that could be a little disinterested this week. Purple cover.

KC-NO: With this CAR performance tonight, I think even less of NO. Even before this game, I liked KC. Now I wish I would have included it in my picks...instead of CAR!

JAC-IND: I've watched them both, and I don't think either is worth a crap. However, Luck > Gabbert...so I'll take Colts at home.

TB-DAL: The see-saw continues in DAL as I think they roll this week over TB. Tampa is nothing special, and DAL will cover the TD.

NYJ-MIA: tough call here. However, I'm still going against MIA because of Taneyhill. Jets cover.

DET-TEN: I'm very tempted by TEN here. I think DET will underestimate them coming in, but I do believe they are that bad and DET will end up covering the number in a close win.

PHI-ARI: Will Philly finally play a strong game? Will ARI finally play poorly? I think yes on both fronts. PHI wins and covers.

ATL-SD: ATL got way up for their big MNF win, now they travel on a short week and SD is a good team. Super Chargers win this one and cover.

PIT-OAK: I really am not thinking much of PIT this year and OAK is desperate for a W at 0-2. I love the Raiders with the points and think they win outright.

HOU-DEN: Lots of HOU love floating around right now, but DEN still is a really strong team...especially at home. I think Peyton has flashbacks of owning the Texans like he did as a Colt and the Broncos win and cover.

NE-BAL: Toughest call of the week in my opinion. I think BAL is a better team right now, but NE getting points off a loss seems to tasty to pass up, right? Well, I'll buck the trend and say BAL wins and covers.

GB-SEA: SEA got their big win last week, I don't think lightning strikes twice. GB wins and covers.

Only 6 dogs for me this week, which is a lot less than usual in the NFL. Should be a fun week as we get the final tune up before conference play begins for most NCAA teams. Gopher Nation needs to show up big-time Saturday night and push the squad to a win over the Orange!!

Good Luck!!