Time for the other half of the league...obviously, with the news today these have changed a bit, but let's hope #4 makes the right choice and proves me wrong. As of now, I'll assume he's out.
EAST
DAL
Everybody's darling once again this season. As I posted earlier, they still have Wade Phillips, which means they still won't win a damn thing. They are the odds on favorite in Vegas to win the NFC, if I could take a Cowboys or the field pick I would take the field. I give at least 5 teams a better chance at winning the NFC than the 'Boys. The offense was and is good. The defense is actually just average, despite all the hype that tells us otherwise.
NYG
This is not an 8-8 team. Last year they struggled through a ton of injuries to important big guys on both sides of the ball. They also played the 7th toughest schedule in the league last year. Eli put them at a -7 in TO margin, the defense underachieved...see where I'm going with this? Don't count out a veteran club with a good coach and a good QB. This team is my pick to win the East.
PHI
Finally, after years of rumors and good old-fashioned Philly hatred, DMc is gone. In his place is Kevin Kolb, who I'm not sold on quite yet. I think he'll be fine, just like every other QB that has replaced DMc over the last few years with his chronic injuries, but to think that this is an upgrade as some Philly faithful are putting it is just dumb. The offense was good last season, the D was average. I look for both of those units to hold to that level in 2010. They benefitted from a +15 TO margin, which is likely going to change this season, which means this team goes down a bit and misses the playoffs.
WAS
Shanahan is the new sheriff in town in WAS. They lost a ton of close ones last season (2-7) and had a horrible offense. If there is one thing Shanahan can help, it's the offense. They have a stable of RB's that look like and unreal Fantasy team from about 4 years ago (Portis, LJ, Parker), and they acquired the aforementioned D.McNabb to play QB. I always kind of liked Campbell, but McNabb is a clear upgrade. The D wasn't awful last season and a -11 TO margin didn't help things either. I think Shanahan is a winner who needed a fresh start and he'll do some really good thing in WAS this season. This is a sneaky team, who I have tentatively positioned in 4th in the East, but totally wouldn't surprise me if they ended up in a WC slot. New coach + New QB = unpredictable.
NORTH
MIN
Good thing I didn't write this yesterday. I was about 99.99% sure that #4 would be back and the Purple were in for another great year. I'm not saying we're all of a sudden a 5 win team without him, but we clearly can't be at the Super Bowl level until we see what T-Jackalacka has done over the last year without playing. 2009 was great, but we really didn't run the ball effectively and our pass D was also pretty poor. We played an easy schedule (#29) and won 75% of our close games. A lot of things went the way of the Purple in 2009, so it's likely going to go back the other way for 2010. Offensively, we won't be as prolific with the pass and AD will need to be back in rookie form (1800/15 TD). The line must improve, this was kind of a hidden weakness last year because people just look at names and not necessarily the way we played. I think the D will continue to be hungry, but they have to figure something out in the secondary. I'm not counting on Griffin for much, so someone is going to have to step up at CB. The S play can only be better, they were atrocious last year in my opinion. Overall, without #4, I will put this team as a WC in 2010.
GB
I hate to do this, but with the news of today, GB is the clear pick to win the North. They did a everything pretty well last season, but one thing that is going against them is their TO margin. +24 last season....this is ridiculous. They averaged a +1.5 TO per game last year, an insanely high amount that should be nearly impossible to repeat in 2010. And with that, they still only won 11 games and a WC spot. Sadly, this is a no-brainer pick to win the North over the #4-less Purple.
CHI
Lots of changes on this squad in 2010, perhaps the last year of Lovie. The pressure is on, so he decided to get a new OC...the mad scientist Mike Martz. So we have an emotional jerk of an OC to go with our emotional wreck of a QB, but yet they spent cash on Chester in the off-season to be the #2 RB. You know how Martz rolls, they will talk about running the ball, but by week 3 it will be Cutler airing it out 50 times per game. The WR corp is not outstanding and Cutler had a hard enough time not turning it over last season without an extra 15 attempts per game. On D, they spent a ton on Peppers, a guy who many fear will cash that first check and then decide it's not worth the effort any more and be one of those historic FA busts. The defense is probably going to be good, but with a quick strike, pass happy offense, the numbers might not be as pretty as you would expect. I see nothing more than 6 wins for CHI in 2010.
DET
It is the common consensus to state that this team is getting better, so I'll tag along and believe that as well. But my question is, how much better? I like the QB, I think he'll be fine. They have some weapons on offense, but they still only scored 16 ppg in 2009. So a big improvement is to score about 20 ppg? That still puts them near the bottom of the league. The defense was awful in 2009, they made some upgrade, so now they'll give up 27 ppg instead of 31? They had a -16 TO ratio last year, so an improvement on this will be expected. But they still have a D that doesn't force a ton of TO's and a 2nd year QB with a questionable OL and some marginal small RB's. I guess what I'm trying to say is that even an improved Lions team is worth a 4th place finish in the North and a Top 8 pick in the Draft in 2011.
SOUTH
NO
The defending champ will be nice again this year. The offense was unstoppable last season, they ran it and threw it very well. The defense was forcing a lot a turnovers but they stunk against the run in 2009. Definitely a playoff team in 2010, probably division champs...but not a repeat Super Bowl.
ATL
I really like this team for 2010. They were good last year against a tough schedule. I think the offense matures a little this season and really surprises people. I love the coaching staff, and I think they are a sure fire playoff team in 2010 as well.
CAR
Finally, the DelHomme era is over in CAR, somehow Fox survived the entire time and will be fighting for his job for like the 4th year and a row. The D was good, as usual, the offense was very average as usual in 2009. They also played a very tough schedule in 2009. Matt Moore is the guy under center, I have a lot of questions there. The defense lost Peppers, but he might not be as big of a loss as some people think. Overall, this team is in need of a makeover at the top, so this will be Fox's swan song.
TB
2nd year of the Morris regime after a rough start in 2009. They went 1-4 in close games and had a horrible offense...which is a theme with these awful teams. It's also year 2 of Josh Freeman, who I kind of like. The defense struggled as well in 2009, so they'll probably improve a bit...but this is a big rebuilding job and with a 2nd year QB, this will not be a great year for the Bucs.
WEST
SF
Yep, I'm picking Samurai Mike and the 9'ers to win the West. The division is that bad. Alex Smith will lead this team to the playoffs...okay, I'm kind of laughing after that sentence. The defense is pretty good, but the offense still has a way to go. They can't throw, so they probably aren't making any noise in January, but this division is so bad I think I'll put them as the West champs hosting the Purple in round 1.
ARI
The grocery bagger has finally given up and turned the keys over to party guy Leinert...at least temporarily. I bet he'll be out by Week 5 and Derek Anderson will be in. With Anderson under center this team will throw a lot of deep balls to Fitz and try to revive an average running game in a late divisional charge. However, this was not really that great of a team last season, and they true flaws will be obvious this year as they fall short of the playoffs.
SEA
Pete Carroll takes over with guru Jedd Fisch as the QB coach. A bad offense can only get better with Carroll and hopefully a healthy Hasselback. The defense was not great last year either. They stopped the run, but were torched through the air. If I had to pick a totally under the radar sleeper playoff team, this would be it. I don't think they have the talent to win much, but once again, this division is so bad that getting a hot streak with the top QB in the division could propel them to the playoffs.
STL
Finally, the 32nd team. A guaranteed last place finish for STL, even in this bad division. Very very bad team in 2009 that scored less than 11 ppg, but now they have a super high paid 1st year rookie QB who I'm not convinced is going to be a great NFL player. The defense was really bad last year as well, and will be again. #1 pick 2 years in a row...maybe, top 3 next year...definitely.
To recap:
NYG, GB, NO, SF to win the division
MIN, ATL as the WC's
I'll go crazy and pick the NYG to get to the big one with a victory over ATL in the NFC title game.
PATRIOTS over GIANTS in a Super Bowl grudge match.
