Official Gophers 2010 Predictions

Even though I am now infinitely more excited for the Purple's season to begin, the Maroon and Gold will be the first ones to fire up on Sept. 2nd, and honestly, Brew's Crew is still the can't miss show in town for this guy.

Despite all of the "expert" predictions which have the Gophers anywhere from 10th to 11th in the B10 for 2010, I see it differently. Why are the experts crushing our hopes for this year? A few reasons:

1. Only 2 returning "starters" on defense. The fatal flaw with this logic is that 3 of our 4 projected starting DL saw significant time last season, 2 of our projected LB's played a lot and started in spots last season, and all 4 of our DB's were starters at the end of last season. So the 2 returning starters label is extremely misleading. Granted, we will be younger than last season, but we are also much more athletic and fast - plus we are in year 2 of Cosgrove/Lee's scheme...2 years in a row with the same DC - a new record! This is the number one issue that all the preseason mags are crushing us on when justifying their 11th place prediction...and it holds no water.

2. Another new OC, Weber was terrible. I'll give them these 2 facts, both are correct but they don't necessarily mean we will be as poor on offense this season. Jeff Horton is a totally different OC than last year's wunderkind Jedd Fisch. Fisch was a risky hire, who embraced NFL schemes and a very complex offense with no dedication to running the football. Shockingly, we don't have NFL caliber minds or talent at QB and WR to execute this complex offense and we looked lost throughout most of the year. Our 2009 offense was much like our 2007 defense with Everett Withers, who came straight from the NFL and installed NFL schemes on D, which we couldn't handle, and allowed 1 bazillion yards and points on our way to 1-11. It's easier to overcome a shitty offense than it is a shitty defense, and that's why things weren't as bad last season. So back to Horton, he's a lifer OC guy who had a brief HC stint and wasn't great. He's a guy who could actually be here for 10 years if we want him. The scheme revolves around running the football and doing a lot of simple plays really well with a couple minor wrinkles mixed in...sound familiar...it's basically the WIS, IOWA, and Glen Mason plan on offense. Not quite as run heavy as Mase once was, but we're definitely going to see more of a commitment to the ground game this season. Couple that with our Senior QB who is entering his 4th year as a starter, and I think the offense will be much improved. Weber was god awful last season, but I don't think he or the WR's (who were forced to make reads off the line on every play to determine what route to run) ever fully embraced Fisch's scheme. Horton is implementing the same scheme that AWEB was brought in to run when Mase recruited him, which can only make him better. He's back to his old throwing style, and he is a 5th year senior...you know this has to turn out better than what we saw last season. So this argument from the experts is also a little off because the offense made good changes and the QB will be better so the PPG and YPG will improve over 2009...I guarantee it.

3. OL is terrible. Again, I can't totally disagree with this because we have been the last 2 years. But we finally have some depth up front and those guys that have been getting run over the last 2 seasons are still all back and are finally upperclassmen. We even have some younger guys pushing these guys for starting spots during camp - so there are options and depth which hasn't been there in the past. I still believe we have the right guy running things in Tim Davis. His track record is too good to believe he can't get the job done. It's a line that is full of giant men that are built for run blocking but a little slow on pass blocking...so last year we threw the hell out of the ball and the OL really struggled at times. They actually played better toward the end of the season, and the size and strength, by all accounts, has greatly improved with some of the younger guys. This group was challenged on the 1st day of practice by coach Brew, and they realize that this offense is going to go as far as this group of 8-10 will take them. We've got some nastiness up front that's been lacking for the last 2 years, and I look for a big turnaround with an extremely experienced OL in 2010 and a re-commitment to the running game.

4. No WR's - Decker gone = no passing game. Once again, based on the last 2 year's results, it's hard to argue with this point. But if you look a little deeper you can see the potential. Our #1 will be DaJon McKnight, who is in his 5th full year of football - the guy has a 43" vertical leap and showed flashes last season once ED went out that he has next level potential. Plus a guy in only his 5th year of organized football is still learning the game and can only get better. Same goes for Stoudermire, our #2 WR. He was a HS QB, then recruited as a DB, but switched to WR only at the half way point of his 1st season with the Gophers. So he's been a WR for 1.5 years...once again, he can only get better. Both of these guys are freaky good athletes, we just need them to be good WR's. Brandon Green is our #3, he needs to blossom. He was a highly touted recruit who has been kind of blah through 2 years. He had a couple big moments as a freshman, but had a tough year in 2009. The athletes are there, and I think an improved running game is only going to help these guys. Plus we bring in former WR from the Broncos Steve Watson, apparently one of the best route running and blocking WR's in the NFL during his time, to coach this young talent and teach them the Eric Decker characteristics they need to become good WR's and not just good athletes. The de-emphasis on the passing game is going to produce better results for these guys than we've seen the last couple of years. Teams will not be able to drop 7 or 8 into coverage if we can develop a running game.

5. The schedule is too tough to improve. The schedule is brutal, but if you want to play with the big kids you have to win some games like this. Beating up ILL, IND, NW, and a bunch of non-conference patsies proves nothing. I like taking on the challenges - either step up and be great or give it a shot and realize you're not at that level. The Mase years left us always wondering what kind of team we had until we would get throttled by PSU 44-7. This year's slate gives us 3 big non-conference challenges before we even think about B10 play, and the conference slate sets up great for a surprise season by hosting nearly every big game at TCF.

So, I've broken down the knocks on the Gophers this year and at least got you doubting the doom and gloom predictions by all of the experts at this point...so what's going to happen...

at MDTN - we win this game. We can physically dominate them up front, our defense will surprise them, their QB has a tendency to throw picks...we win a close one: 1-0

SDAK - win, come on...like we even play close to a team like this: 2-0

USC - I'm not crazy, we won't win this one, but hopefully a nice showing and a great recruiting weekend: 2-1

NILL - a night game at TCF...we can't lose: 3-1

NW - we start the B10 off right and beat the Cats like we should have done 2 years ago when it REALLY mattered! Still pissed about that one: 4-1

at WIS - this will be fun. WIS will be coming off a nice close W in MSU over Sparty, we'll be coming off a close W over NW, homecoming for WIS, I'll be there hammered in Maroon and Gold embarassing my wife and the people who mistakenly invited me...but I just can't predict a W here. I'm just hoping for a cover: 4-2

at PUR - coming off an emotional letdown in WIS, we'll be flat here and lose: 4-3

PSU - off a bad loss at PUR, the club comes out with some fire. PSU is coming in off a bye and could reasonably be 3-3 or at best 4-2 at this point. Anything great will be out of the picture and they have a surprisingly decent MICH team coming in next week. We get to their bunk QB early and pull off a VEGAS miracle and win this thing: 5-3

OHIOST - Halloween weekend, evening game at TCF....but this is the top team in the nation. I'm optimistic, but beating OHIOST ain't happening: 5-4

at MSU - payback game for Sparty, we go down: 5-5

at ILL - rebound game against an already fired Ron Zook and team...Gophers win in Champaign again: 6-5

IOWA - we are off a bye and NEED a rivalry win more than anything in the world. The Hogeyes just lost a heartbreaker to OHIOST to fall to 6-5 and they limp in to TCF for the end of their uber-disappointing season. GOPHERS WIN: 7-5

There you go - don't even need to play out the games because this is how it will go. 2 Trophies in the cases, and a TON of optimism going into 2011 with everyone back but AWEB...I'm smelling the Roses.

Call me crazy.