MNF - WIN for ROE or another push?

Just a couple of quick things this Halloween Monday -

First, 16 of us like the CHARGERS at -3.5 tonight, and ROE likes the home dog CHIEFS. A SD cover pushes the cash to next week so $150 would be on the line. Mike - 5-0 in the NFL? What happenend?!?!?!

What else....oh, yeah...this:

IOWA TROPHY CASE

Not even a Cy-Hawk in that thing...sorry guys.



VICTORY FORMATION!! We ran it well on Saturday, because Duane Bennett convinced Coach Kill to practice it in the walk-through Saturday morning because they were going to need it. Yes.

Is there anything more fun than reading Hogeye message boards after a beating them again? Nope. They're firing from all angles right now...Fire Ferentz, Hire Mike Stoops, why can't we get Bielema, why don't we try - at least the hoops team tries!, Hire McCarney, at least it's wrestling season (seriously, this is actually said on their boards).

Read this article by Doogie from 1500AM, it's great and informative :

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Gophers_staff_widely_outcoached_Iowas_in_upset_victory103011

And read this Hogeye message board, 534 comments...not much positivity:

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/10/30/2524262/minnesota-22-iowa-21-welcome-to-the-queso-bowl

Lots of "fans" complaining about how they're not going to spend their hard earned dollars (selling drugs) to go back to Mpls if this is the kind of effort they're going to get.

We had a coward sitting behind us who yelled and whistled annoyingly throughout nearly the entire game, but ran a 4.2 40 to the exit once that last 4th down didn't work out. Weird. He also incorportaed the Seminole chop and song as well as the Gator chomp into his Hogeye cheers. Interesting choice sir. This was the scene late Saturday night as the sad bunch headed back down to the land of Meth and Pigs:

If there has been a better Saturday I must have missed it. WIS losing on another last second Hail Mary? That was just the cherry on top of what could not have been a better day. The best part is that we have 4 more games, so building on this momentum could lead to a strong finish to the season. The WIS/MN game is on the ABC/ESPN watch list right now, so we won't know the game time until after this week's games. I'm guessing 2:30, but there's an outside chance at 7pm as well.

The infamous goal-post theft from Meth-head nation was shown by Kill to the team before the game...thanks for the inspiration guys.

It's going to be a good week/month/year.

Quick Update

MR at 8-6 and BOMB at 8-5.

BOMB on DAL at +3.5, ROE on PHI at -3.5....

DAL win = BOMB $100
PHI win = either ROE win or a tie and push to next week with a SD -3.5 cover on MNF for BOMB.

Week 9 Preview

HATE WEEK will finally come to it's dramatic conclusion on Saturday night. $100 on the line this week - let's see what we've got:

JR: VIR VT MARY IND MN USC FIU SJST NYG BAL MIN JAC DET BUF NE

JG: MIA MN NW PUR MIZZ KST NAVY NM ARK DET BUF NE STL CLE DAL

MR: MSU OHIOST BAY TEX ND ORE CAL ARK GEO TN BUF STL CIN PIT PHI

AW: MIA FSU NC MN PSU WIS FLA BUF CIN DET DAL MIN ARI HOU SD

GR: CLEM MN PSU MSU TEX KST OKST STAN GEO BUF DET PHI NYG CAR KC

MH: OLE STAN TCU NAVY MN PSU MSU WIS NW MICH BUF DAL NE BAL SEA

MC: UTEP AKR KENT BALLST BUFF TCU ORE FIU SJST IDAHO SEA STL PIT CLE DEN

SS: CLEM TEX KST WV ND TCU ORE STAN AUB IDAHO BAL DET MIN SD SF

RO: WIS NEB TEX A&M OK ND TCU FLA HAW SD SF BUF NYG CIN NO

TN: CLEM WIS MSU KST BAY HOU BUFF STAN WKY GEO BUF CIN NE PHI KC

MT: CLEM NEB A&M OK HOU STAN ORE OLE ARK CIN SD DET STL ARI JAC

GT: CLEM FSU WIS IOWA ILL OK BAY TCU ORE CIN JAC NE NYG NO TEN

MS: WIS MIZZ MARSH ND BYU JAC NE NYG BAL MIN CIN NO DET BUF IND

CP: WIS MSU MN PUR UCONN HOU TCU UNLV COL SJST JAC NE NYG BAL MIN

LW: MDTN GT NMST USC WIS NYG MIN IND HOU DEN BUF SF NE PHI SD

JH: VT WIS A&M OKST ORE ASU STAN ARK SC NYG BUF NE PHI SD BAL

MO: CLEM WIS ILL A&M TEX HOU SMU MEM STAN FLA MIN IND NO DET PIT

So far 3 games have picked games, and 3 guys have lost games...CP, MC, JR are all off to 0-1 starts. I hope this isn't setting a tone for the week.
 
GAMES THAT MATTER
 
Double-header Thursday kicks off tonight.
 
RICE-HOU (-27)
The play here has to be HOU. They are getting all the action at 4 to 0 picks this week. It's a big number, but Rice is bad, and HOU is aiming for BCS consideration. Go with the Cougs, even though I don't love this one.
 
VIR (+15) at MIA
I'm still not impressed with MIA. But everything seems to favor VIR in this one - they have the better defense, coming off a bad loss to NCST, and getting a few more points that the power rating suggests they should. MIA is coming off of back to back big wins over NC and GT and they just don't look like they're good enough to cover more than 2 TD's in this one. I'm going CAVS with 2 guys on MIA.
 
BYU at TCU (-11.5)
TCU on Friday night looks like the right side. BYU still just doesn't have the typical fire power to keep up in a shootout like this. Although the offense has improved for the Mormons lately, I think TCU's D will be up to the challenge and they win by 2 TD's. Don't love this one either, but I'll take the Frogs. We have lots of action on this one with 6 on the Frogs and 1 on BYU.
 
NW at IND (+10)
So you have a team who has lost 5 in row with a bad defense favored by 10 points on the road in a tough conference game? This makes no sense to me. My line would have been closer to 4 or 5 with 7 being the max I would put on this one. Clearly, IND is not good either, but getting 10 points as a young team at home to a bad conference opponent...I'll take it. Hoosiers win outright...33-31. I'm the only one on this one, 2 guys on NW.
 
MSU at NEB (-6)
It seems like NEB hasn't played well yet this season, so why would I pick them here? Well, it feels like the ultimate letdown spot for Sparty nation after the big win at home last week. Lincoln will be crazy, as a win would put them in the driver's seat for a B10 title game birth. What scares me is NEB's inability to throw the ball...ever. Sparty's D is good enough to lock down on the run game and for T-Magic to start shot-putting it out there. But the letdown angle for me is too great to like Sparty in this one...NEB 27-20. 5 guys on Sparty and only 2 on NEB.
 
FLA (+2.5) vs. GEO
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is always a fun one...if you're a Gator at least. Mark Richt never beat Spurrier, only beat the Zooker once, and only beat Urban once. How will he fair against Mr. Muschamp? My guess is not good. Brantley will likely be back for the Gators to kick start that offense. Statistically the team are almost identical with both having good D and average O. But Brantley coming back makes a difference to me. Also Richt's track record against FLA and being the favorite make me lean Gators on this one. FLA wins 30-18, because SEC games always have weird scores. 3 guys on each side in this one, definitely one of the bigger swing games this week.
 
ZOOK at PATERNO (-6)
I'm going with the fade Zook at all costs opinion in this one. His team looks beat. They've lost 2 in a row and they are coming into a BYE next week, I don't think they have any reason to step up in a tough situation at Happy Valley this week. BTW, my PSU call for B10 champ still looks okay as they are 4-0 in conference and playing some good ball right now. This one could be a snoozer...PSU 20-10. 2 guys on ILL and 3 on PSU.
 
CLEM (-4.5) at GT
I know it's CLEM, but I'm almost starting to believe in this crew much like AUB of last year. They always have that clunker when they get off to a start like this, but I'm not sure it's coming this year. The toughest game left after this is at a depleted SC team, so GT might be the best shot at a loss they have the rest of the way. GT is playing awful right now - as soon as I started betting them they have taken a turn for the worst and lost their last 2. I have to ride the hot hand and take CLEM here...44-34. FC world agrees with 6 on CLEM and 1 on GT.
 
STAN at USC (+8.5)
I've been waiting for this Cardinal club to slow down for the last 4 weeks, and I think it finally happens this week at USC. I don't think there is any way STAN should be giving more than a TD in this one, so I had to take the points. STAN's first 3 road games were DUKE, AZ, WASU...not exactly a tough slate. This one will be a lot different than those. I think Barkley and the USC running game can keep it close throughout and possibly squeak out a W...TROJANS Win 37-31. Only 2 of us on USC and 7 still riding the STAN wave.
 
WIS (-9) at OHIOST
I hate it, but I think you have to take Becky in this one. They are still a crazy good team and OHIOST is just not this year. Typically I would see OHIOST +9 at home and bet the mortgage on it, but this team just isn't there right now. Defensively, they may be able to slow Becky down a bit and keep this one in range for the majority of the game. But OHIOST's offense is so bad and one dimeniosnal that I don't think it will take too many blunders by the young QB to make this one ugly. I'll say close for a half, and ugly by the end...WIS 28-9. 10 on Becky, 1 on OHIOST.
 
IOWA at MN (+17.5)
Like I wouldn't pick the right side in this one. Here's the deal, our offense sucks. But if we can keep from turning the ball over so much I think there is hope here. This isn't the Iowa defense we're used to seeing, they are very average this year and they struggle with running QB's like always. If Q takes over and calls his own number early and often I think we stay in this thing. Defensively I really don't think we are as terrible as it seems. We've given up too many long plays, so the numbers look pretty rough. We also make too many stupid penalties. If we can cure those 2 things, this game is winnable. A good start is mandatory. I heard today that we have trailed in our last 39! games!!!! Let's try to play with a lead once instead of always having to comeback. McNutt is tough, Coker can run it, but the Iowa offense overall can be contained. I'll say GOPHERS maintain bowl eligibility and put it all together to win 27-24...sounds familiar. 6 of us are on the Gophs, with 1 on Iowa.
 
NFL
I've got 10 minutes, so here are the best bets...
 
NYG over a MIA team that has all but quit on the season and fired their coach.
BAL off an embarassing MNF performance smacks the taste out of ARI this week.
MIN covers the 3.5 but lses outright in CAR...21-20.
TEN is not a great team and shouldn't be a DD favorite over anyone, take INDY.
HOU...see TEN, take JAC.
DET over Jesus H. Tebow, but when you're betting against the big man you never know.
BUF is best bet on the board...WAS is brutally bad and getting worse.
I like SEA over CIN at home, since when did CIN reach favored on the road in tough environment status?
Give me BRADY over PIT, just a better team and off a BYE you know Belichick has some sinister plans for the beat up Steelers.
DAL/PHI - flip a coin, DAL is better but PHI off a BYE....I'll take points and DAL.
 
Good Luck - hope to see some of you celebrating with me and my buddy Floyd on Saturday!!

Need Week 9 Picks from...

LUKE W.
HEINERT
SETNICKER

Send them by NOON.


Thanks.

Wednesday Night Football & Things to Ponder

First, we have football tonight...UCONN at PITT (-10.5), so please let me know if you want in on this game before it starts.

Second, what did you think of our QB?!? That game actually played out pretty much like I had expected. Ponder looked the part, made a few mistakes, but ultimately led the club to a near miss against a really good team. AD had a huge day, but the recievers and OL that he's working with are about as bad as we've seen around here in quite a while. Not to mention our total lack of a secondary against maybe the top QB in the league right now...all in all it could have been a lot worse. If Ponder continues to improve and leads us to a few wins down the stretch, which I think he will do, I could possibly see some signs of hope for the future. Obviously, we have gaping holes in the OL (LT!), we need a star WR, we need a S and at least 1 more CB. Can we find all of these in the off-season...unlikely, but a nice high pick should fill one of these spots and maybe a gem or two in FA. If nothing else, at least the final half of the season will have something to watch.

- Houston Nutt was angry this week that a local Ole Miss columnist picked the Rebs to lose 49-10 to ARK at home on Saturday. Ole Miss proceeded to blow a 17-0 lead and still lose the game by 4 points, after which Nutt went to the reporter and said, "It ain't no 49-10!" So he's all jacked up and anxious to get back at this reporter after his team blows a 17 point lead to a top 10 team. This is what is top of mind for him? That's why Houston Nutt is a joke and will be jobless come December.

- Last Thursday in the UCLA-ARIZ game right around half time a guy dressed as a referee ran out to the field waving his arms and blowing a whistle. He proceeded to get chased down the field and start stripping off his clothes. It was funnny, and it incited a brawl between the 2 benches. Whatever, right...just a dumb college kid doing something stupid but harmless. Or not. He was charged with a felony! Now the kid could end up serving time for this. Maybe I will re-think my plans for the Iowa game this weekend.

This was such an amazing finish and great moment in college football last Saturday night. I think it was even more fun that Sparty let Becky back in it with those 2 late TD's only to tear their heart out all over again once the red team regained a little hope.

The Becky's were a little premature in celebrating their 6 game National Championship. They still think it's bull$hit that they should ever have to play a road game. Now this week they have their 2nd in a row...it's a conspiracy against the red team! Maybe they'll leave the NCAA and start their own conference.

I was laughing at one of these donkeys on Saturday night, my little guy Jace was laughing at the other...can you guess which is which? Big Bret and his timeout plan didn't make any sense to me at the end of the game Saturday night. Sparty is around mid field and driving to hopefully get a winning FG or shot at a Hail Mary, and Bret continues to use his timeouts for them in hope that his D will make a stop and get the ball back in regulation? In theory, I understand what he was going for, but is this really the right move? You've dominated the last 10 minutes of the game and you have to believe that Sparty was content on sending this to OT and just surviving the final run by Becky. Using the extra timeouts forced Sparty to try and make a big play, which they did, and then allowed them a shot at that last heave to the end zone. Thanks Bret - you are a true Iowan at heart.

Speaking of the southerners...

I hope this guy is sitting by me on Saturday. You know he'll be there. Look out for this guy as well...

P.S.A. : They're wrestlers, you know...all of them...even the feminine ones. This background combined with mass amounts of extremely bad cheap beer creates ugly aggressiveness. They will all have their singlets on under their overalls and they will all be either wearing their headgear or have it in the pickup nearby. Their sleeves will be freshly torn off, for the big trip to the "city" they like to look their best. So you have been warned, any contact with these beings will likely result in a confrontation, because that's what they do. I witnessed 2 Hogeye fans in a Becky bar a few years back watching the Badgers beat them again, and literally these 2 started challenging everyone in the bar to a fight and taking their shirts off and breaking things. They can't help it...it's what they do. Win or lose, they will be jackasses.

So, what else we got. Here's this stat to cheer up all of us Gopher backers: OK was the largest favorite to lose outright this season, the previous "worst" loss...MIN as a 18.5 point favorite losing outright to NMST. Woo-hoo! We are not the worst at something any more! Honestly, I think IND is actually worse than us right now. They also only have 1 win, but it came against a D1AA school in South Carolina State. At least we have a D1 win, right? IND went to Iowa and lost by 21 points. If we're equals with IND, then the lines should swing 6 points in our favor with the home/road reversal, so we should be +15, but we're at 17.5...sounds like a winner to me!

Honestly, I think we are improving in some areas. We've only allowed 1 sack in the last 2 games vs. 13 in the first 5. Our run defense is terrible, but our pass defense has actually been quite decent. Where we're losing these games for the most part is in the turnover battle. We are at a -6 in B10 play right now. We've only been on the + side of the TO margin one time...when we beat MIAOH. Let's hope we can get it all together starting this week.

In the NFL, I have a couple things to discuss.

First, John Fox, HC of DEN, has coached 358 NFL games over 23 years, and Sunday was the first time his team had ever recovered an onside kick. TEBOW?

Speaking of the savior, Cowherd made a great call this week when he said, "you can't be a hero, when the fire you're putting out is one that you started." This is so very accurate, and it seems like most of the world is missing this from Sunday. DEN should have clobbered MIA. The Dolphins WANT to lose. They have nothing to gain by winning. Tebow threw for 24 yards in the first 3 quarters! He dug them into the mess, and then once the Fins laid down we brought them back to win. I feel like the oddsmakers are falling for this crap as well by only making them a 3.5 point dog at home with DET this week. It's not that I want to hate the guy, he's just not very good. But it appears as if something is on his side, so I guess we'll keep watching and see where it goes.

NFL teams off a BYE have always been a good betting trend. This year, teams off the BYE are only 5-6-1 in their next game. I think it's changed a little, at this point to give a team an edge off a BYE I think they have to have a good coach, which only about 1/3 of the league has. They also have to be in the right spot. A team's performance off a BYE can tell you a lot, in my opinion, about their coach. TEN last week, I thought they had a good coach, but they lose to an undermanned HOU team at home 41-7...instantly he goes to the bad coach pile in my mind. There are a lot of "good" coaches coming off a BYE this week (Coughlin, Reid, Belichick, Jim Harbaugh?) Then you also have Jauron and Marvin Lewis off of a BYE with their surprising teams. Tough to not like the chances of any of these guys this week, but I would panic if I see one of these teams come out flat this week. If you can't play with fire after a week off and 2 weeks to prepare for this opponent, then there is something else wrong.

Lots of big games this week in the NCAA, and lots of big lines this week in the NFL - should make for an interesting $100 week!! Good Luck, send me your picks when you can. One last note, for those who paid with a check, I cashed all of those today - sorry for the delay, I actually kind of forgot about them.

WHO HATES IOWA?!?!?

I HATE IOWA.

TROY-FIU

MC and I are taking FIU tonight at -4.5....pray for us.

Week 9 Lines - $100 week, mid point of the season

Our 3rd $100 week is here! The last 2 have been won with 12-3 records, so bring your best game this week to make back your cash. It's also the half-way point in the season, I know...sad.

Send me your best 15 in the quest for $100 - we also have TUES, WED, THU, FRI night football this week and every week until Thanksgiving. If there was ever a time to get hot, this would be it.

SUN BELT TUESDAY

TROY
FIU -4.5

BIGEAST WEDNESDAY

UCONN
PITT -10.5

DOUBLE HEADER THURSDAY

RICE
HOU -27

VIR
MIA -15

MORMON FRIDAY

BYU
TCU -11.5

Please be sure to send me these picks before they start if you want action on any of these games (TUES/WED). Here's the rest of the list:

NCST
FSU -20

NW
IND 10

SYR
LOU -4

PUR
MICH -15

MSU
NEB -6

UAB
MARSH -6

CMU
AKR 8

MIZZ
A&M -11

ARK
VAN 12

VT
DUKE 14

BGU
KENT 4.5

BALLST
WMU -13

AF
NM 29

BC
MARY -7.5

WASU
ORE -33

FLA
GEO -2.5

IOWA
MN 17.5

TULANE
ECU -17

WF
NC -7

WV
RUT 7.5

BUFF
MIAOH -7.5

BAY
OKST -18

SMU
TULSA -3

ILL
PSU -6

OK
KST 13.5

WKY
ULM -6.5

NAVY
ND -17.5

MEM
UCF -29.5

SJST
LT -9.5

HAW
IDAHO 10.5

COLST
UNLV 3

COL
ASU -30.5

OLE
AUB -10.5

CAL
UCLA 5

MISST
UK 10.5

KAN
TEX -23.5

OREST
UTAH -7

NTEX
ARKST -14.5

ISU
TT -17

SC
TN 7

ULL
MDTN -3

CLEM
GT 4.5

NEV
NMST 15

STAN
USC 8.5

WIS
OHIOST 9

SOMISS
UTEP 11

WY
SDST -17

NFL

AZ
WASH -7.5

NO
STL 15.5

MIA
NYG -10.5

ARI
BAL -13

MIN
CAR -3.5

IND
TEN -10.5

JAC
HOU -10

DET
DEN 3.5

WAS
BUF -4.5

CIN
SEA 1

CLE
SF -10

NE
PIT 2.5

DAL
PHI -3.5

SD
KC 3.5

Week 8 Review

Hammer is probably still cursing the brutal performance by the Ravens last night that cost him $50. I think tonight's Tuesday Night Sun Belt action will be more entertaining than that thing last night.

YTD OVERALL STANDINGS


TOTAL W L %


MR 71 49 59.2%

SS 70 50 58.3%

MO 68 52 56.7%

JH 68 52 56.7%

RO 67 53 55.8%

CP 67 53 55.8%

GR 66 54 55.0%

TN 65 55 54.2%

MH 64 56 53.3%

MT 64 56 53.3%

GT 62 58 51.7%

LW 60 60 50.0%

AW 60 60 50.0%

JR 58 62 48.3%

MC 58 62 48.3%

MS 58 62 48.3%

JG 56 64 46.7%


Roe has dipped below 60%, and we still have 7 guys within 5 games of the lead. 52.9% in total right now, and dropping every week.
 
WEEK 8
Week 8 W L %


MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

MO 10 5 66.7%

JH 10 5 66.7%

AW 8 7 53.3%

MH 8 7 53.3%

MC 8 7 53.3%

SS 8 7 53.3%

JR 7 8 46.7%

CP 7 8 46.7%

GT 7 8 46.7%

MR 6 9 40.0%

RO 6 9 40.0%

MT 6 9 40.0%

JG 5 10 33.3%

GR 5 10 33.3%

LW 5 10 33.3%

TN 4 11 26.7%


An ugly 45.8% in total this week, that's how you go broke fast. Only 6 guys over .500 for the week. 45% in NCAA and 47% in NFL. The return of the underdog crushed a lot of hopes and dreams this week.
 
TOTAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL
 
NCAA W L %


MR 58 27 68.2%

MS 32 17 65.3%

SS 48 27 64.0%

CP 53 32 62.4%

MO 50 31 61.7%

GR 46 33 58.2%

TN 48 36 57.1%

MH 47 38 55.3%

RO 43 35 55.1%

JH 43 36 54.4%

GT 33 28 54.1%

MT 36 31 53.7%

AW 36 37 49.3%

LW 25 27 48.1%

MC 39 46 45.9%

JG 24 33 42.1%

JR 31 44 41.3%

55.4% for the year in NCAA, still making money...most of us. I think a trained monkey could hit more than 41.3%, so clearly I am not at that level yet.

NFL TOTAL YTD

NFL W L %


JH 25 16 61.0%

JR 27 18 60.0%

RO 24 18 57.1%

MC 19 16 54.3%

MT 28 25 52.8%

LW 35 33 51.5%

AW 24 23 51.1%

JG 32 31 50.8%

GT 29 30 49.2%

SS 22 23 48.9%

GR 20 21 48.8%

MH 17 18 48.6%

TN 17 19 47.2%

MO 18 21 46.2%

CP 14 21 40.0%

MR 13 22 37.1%

MS 26 45 36.6%

Hammer wrestled away the lead from me in the NFL totals. For the year, we are below 50% coming in at 49.4%.

Week 9 lines will be coming this afternoon - waiting on lots of NFL games that are still not listed. So until then...

Week 8 Update

One game left for the week, and for a change it actually has some meaning for the pool this week.

MO is sitting at 10-5 right now and is tied with JH at 10-4, but Hammer still has the Ravens -10 tonight.

If BAL wins, HAMMER takes the $$$, if JAC covers we push to next week for $100.

Outside of these 2 LeRoy natives fighting it out for the weekly crown, the overall picture was not good in Week 8. We currently sit at 46% for the week with only 3 other guys over .500 right now.

Full recap will be coming tomorrow with standings and Becky taunting.

Week 8 Preview - SPARTY....YES!

Biggest game of the weekend? Probably not, but best chance to end this Becky nightmare...probably, until NOV 12th.

First, here's the complete list of picks:

JR: GT OKST KAN LOU ND TOL WASH ULL NTEX NYJ DET CAR TB TEN MIN

JG: GT MN NW OKST KAN AZ COL AUB TN CLE WAS DEN PIT OAK DAL

MR: FSU IOWA NEB WIS OKST OK ND BOISE ORE ARK NYJ TB ATL MIA GB

AW: MIA WIS MN RUT WV BOISE AZ CAL CHI ATL PIT OAK MIN SD HOU

GR: WIS NEB ILL OK A&M HOU ARK AUB ALA PIT OAK TB GB DAL DET

MH: GT CLEM WIS NEB ILL NW IND BOISE OREST ARK GB CHI ATL HOU CAR

MC: BC IND MN TT NM AF COL AUB TN NMST ATL MIN STL IND JAC

SS: OK KAN LOU USF EMU BOISE CAL USC STAN ATL PIT TB DAL SD TEN

RO: WIS NEB PSU A&M MIZZ SOMISS BOISE AUB ALA PIT TB GB DET NYJ CLE

TN: GT CLEM IND MN MSU A&M ND WASH AUB ARK GB DET TEN CAR BAL

MT: BC NC WIS OK OKST AF AUB ARK SD MIN STL IND JAC CHI ARI

GT: CLEM VT WIS NEB OKST BOISE UCLA ALA JAC GB TEN PIT DEN SEA NO

MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

CP: WIS MN PSU PUR BALLST BOISE UCLA CAL USC LSU DEN SD BAL TB OAK

LW: WIS NEB OK BOISE USC SD BAL OAK PIT MIN STL IND CLE HOU MIA

JH: CLEM WIS NEB PSU ILL KST HOU UCLA ALA BAL OAK PIT MIN HOU NO

MO: GT WIS OKST RUT HOU TCU USC STAN ALA PIT MIN HOU SD TB CAR

ALMOST EVERYONE LOVES...
OKST
ARK
BOISE
AUB
WIS

PIT
OAK

Not nearly as many "sure things" this week according to our group.

SOLOIST ON A SOLO LIST
RO-MIZZ
AW-MIA
CP-LSU
TN-SPARTY!
MC-TT

MT-ARI

Once again, a much smaller list in the me against the world type bets.

GAMES THAT MATTER
These matter to me for one reason or another, so here's what I expect to happen.

First, the 2 THUR games - these always matter because it's the only thing on!!

UCF -15 at UAB - I think UAB is a wreck. UCF coming off a few bad performances and they should be able to crush the Blazers tonight.

UCLA +4 at ARI - As long as the Cats don't decide to try an win one for the gipper with the new interim guy, I think the Bruins are a better club and will take advantage of a porous ARI defense to easily cover this one.

IND +22 at IOWA - Iowa seems to struggle with the Who-siers every year. How is Iowa 3+ TD's better than anyone right now? They are very average on both sides of the ball, which I don't think most of the country realizes at this point. IND is bad, we know that, but I'll give them a chance this week coming off the Becky beatdown from their last game.

WF-DUKE OVER 59.5 - this is a lock, play it. The last 4 years they've been well over 60 every time, why would this year be different?

GT+3 at MIA - Paul Johnson off a loss is a dangerous thing. MIA is not as good as GT even though the oddsmakers are labeling these 2 teams as equals. This looks tasty for the Jackets.

NAVY -10 vs. ECU - I think NAVY rebounds after a lot of poor performances and routes an undisciplined ECU team by 3 TD's. ECU is pathetic this year and NAVY is due...right JG?

AUB +22 at LSU - LSU suspension have taken this one off the board at a lot of locations, but not the Football Challenge! Lots of AUB love this week, and I have to go along with it. A new QB is a frightening thing against the Tigers on the Bayou, but AUB isn't nearly as bad as I expected this season and they could make it a fight.

ND -7.5 vs. USC - I think the Trojans are overrated. My belief is the oddsmakers set this at 7.5 to try and entice some of us to jump on the Trojans assuming this game will be close. Actually, I think the Irish crush in this one and win by 14-20 pts.

WASH +20 at STAN - I still don't think STAN is as good as they've looked thus far. WASH can score some points, so getting 20 in this one seems like a lot. Both of these teams have been good bets this year, but I have to think WASH gives STAN their first minor scare and keeps it within 2 scores.

MSU +7.5 vs. WIS - I should never bet IOWA, WIS, or MN games...it gets too emotional. I somehow was able to lay off of this one in Week 8, but I like Sparty. Now the question is, do I like them logically or am I just praying for a Becky loss to bring back some sanity to the NCAAF world. Here's my case, WIS is playing their 1st road game...it's OCT 22 and they haven't seen the road yet!?!? WTF!?!? So we have that, you also have statistically the best D in the nation getting more than a TD at home. These 2 have played very tight games each of the last 4 years, so why wouldn't it happen again? GO SPARTY!!

NEB-25 at MN - I can't with a good conscience pick the Maroon and Gold this week. I know the line has actually moved in our favor, and NEB really isn't that great this year, but our club looks hopeless. How about this stat...defensively, MN and NEB are about equal. Wow, blackshirts? Anyone? Buehler? Offensively, we are challenged quite a bit so I don't like our odds to score more than 3 times. So how do the Gophers surprise me and cover? Turnovers...we never force them, but Martinez likes to throw them so we have a chance there. Run the ball...once again, we haven't done it very well this year, but maybe we figured it out in the BYE week. I really don't think we'll get run off the field, but this shouldn't be close...NEB 49 MN 17.

On to the professionals...

SD-NYJ: Jets seem like an obvious play to me in this one. SD always seems to be overrated, so I'll go with NYJ.
SEA-CLE: Epic battle that 14 people will be watching this weekend...I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'll go T-Jackalacka on the road. CLE is bad and has burned me multiple times this year. Kill them with fire.
ATL-DET: Lions on the rebound are the play...ATL is not very good, this just in. Only QB who didn't torch a brutal Packers secondary this year...Maaaatttt Ryan.

WAS-CAR: John Beck starting, huh...take CAR. They aren't bad and they need a win.
CHI-TB: This game is in London, CHI is team turmoil right now, I like TB.
DEN-MIA: Before you pick this one, remember this moment...

Then ask yourself...can I bet on this man as my QB in a real life NFL game against anyone? The correct answer is NO. Take the Fins.
HOU-TEN: I LOVE TEN this week. HOU is banged up, TEN is off a BYE and a nasty tough team. TEN wins and covers.
PIT-ARI: Vegas trap line, PIT only -4 at ARI...well, Cards off a BYE with Whisenhunt's Steeler knowledge, PIT looking ahead to NE and BAL the next 2 weeks, yuck. Stay away, stay far away...I'll pick PIT because I have to but it will be very close.
KC-OAK: So Carson Palmer is starting after being acquired yesterday? That seems odd. KC is riding a 2 game win streak and off a BYE and seeking revenge for 2 L's last year...I like KC and points.
STL-DAL: Bradford is playing, DAL is laying 12 while playing every game this year within 1 score...hmmmm, I think STL.
IND-NO: Huge line, but my god IND has to be ready to throw the towle pretty soon. I hate it, but I'll go NO.
BAL-JAC: The Jags hosting MNF? Why ESPN, why? Doesn't seem like a good spot for the Jaguars, so I'll say BAL eeks this one out by 13.

GB at PURPLE +10.5
10.5 at the dome with a new QB. This number on pure principal alone seems insanely high. I know we've been terrible and the Pack are the greatest show in the world, BUT I don't see this one getting ugly. Call me a homer, but I think after the ass-beating we took last week at CHI, the team is going to show up and give it a run on Sunday. The Packer D is not that strong, obviously, they do have a great offense - but I think you can score on these guys. Ponder, well, I hope he stays upright and makes a couple spectacular plays to keep it interesting. And I think he will, once again, I really like this guy and hopefully he'll be the talk of the town by the time NBC SNF is ready to start. I don't think we can win, but I'll say PURPLE 20 PACK 27.


Just to warn you, once the festivities are over on Saturday it will officially be HATE WEEK...I can smell them already...

Good Luck to you all this weekend.

Need Week 8 Picks from...

ROE
BOMB
HEINERT
M. THOMAS
SETNICKER
PEYTON
LUKE

Please send them over by NOON TODAY.

Thanks Guys.

Things to PONDER

This week seems to be all about change, so I decided we'll rename the former "What we learned" to a more appropriate title considering the happenings of this week.

First, I'll go on record, for those of you that weren't a part of the FC this April when the Purple team went out on a limb and took Mr. Ponder....I like the guy. He has all the qualities I look for in my NFL QB's. Maybe he was a reach for where the Purple took him in April, but if you like a guy then I like the aggressive move to get him. Last week showed us a glipse (although I put no stock in mop-up duty with 2nd teamers and 3rd teamers on both sides of the ball) but I still think he displayed a lot of good qualities in his short time against CHI. Anyway, no matter how this turns out, I'm on board with the change and I'm on board with Ponder as our guy for the future. Will he beat GB this week...no. But I think he still keeps my hope alive for the 6+ wins this year!! Sadly, this is the best I've felt about our Purple QB in as long as I can remember.

Now, on to some interesting things I've uncovered/heard/read/created this week.

- First, those of you who love to bet the big favorites and have been winning this year...nice work. This usually isn't the case, but take a look at the numbers for the big favorites this season:

20+ point favorites are 38-23 on the year in NCAAF for a nice 62% return.

Now, the question is, does this trend continue, or do the number continue to inflate on the great teams to a point where this reverses itself and evens out to a more realistic 50/50 split?

- One of the things I love to look for when finding a pickable DOG is a great D getting points. How do I classify a great D? Well, being the stats weirdo that I am, I like to look at PPG they give up but more importantly I like to look at yards per play given up. Anything under 5 = good in my mind. Anything under 4.5 is great. Using this logic, last week if I would have taken every good/great D that was getting points last week I would have gone 7-1...hmmmm.

- On the other side of that, I also look for poor offenses that are giving a lot of points. In my mind, these are also very good opportunities to look at and take the dog that's getting just a few too many points. Poor offenses to me are defined as scoring <25ppg and/or under 5 yards per play. If I would have bet against each favorite that had a "bad offense" I would have gone 7-2 in those games last week...hmmmm.

BTW - I'm really disappointed that nobody jumped on the Sun Belt Tuesday Night yesterday...ARKST housed, but no one benefitted.

- Kansas State is 6-0 and has been an underdog in their last 4 games. That's impressive, it almost feels like once they are favored...this week...things will come crashing down and they'll lose. I'm not recommending putting anything of value on the Jayhawks this weekend, but it's just a hunch at this point. KAN also has the benefit of being a home dog in a rivalry game...dangerous.

- 1st year head coaches are a tricky proposition when trying to handicap a game. They are the most unpredictable, sometimes good and sometimes bad, week in and week out. If you have 4+ years as a track record for a HC you have a chance to predict the spots where his team will play up or down and which opponents they handle well and which ones they don't. However, 1st year HC are constantly changing their teams because they typically have ugly overall records in year 1, but the good coaches always seem to find 2-3 spots where the team gets together and rises up to challenge someone as a big DOG. It's even worse when you get 2 1st year coaches together, such as MIA-NC last week. By the numbers, NC -2 looked like the play. However, with 2 1st year coaches and a Sr. QB for MIA and a So. QB for NC, it didn't play out this way. I read a stat this offseason that 1st year coaches in both NCAA and NFL on average see their games finish the farthest off from the spread one way or the other vs. non-1st year coaches. So when betting on teams like this...beware, you never know what kind of team will show up.

- Does firing your coach during the season make your team play better for the remainder of the year or worse? We'll find out how ARI reacts on Thursday night when they host UCLA without Angry Mike Stoops hollering up and down the sidelines for the first time in a long time. I have concluded that playing in the last game of the season or a Bowl game with an outgoing coach or interim coach is a good thing that inspires your team to play better than they actually are. However, the results are a little mixed for mid-season firings. The GOPHERS lost their first 2 games without Brew last year before covering their final 3 and outright winning the last 2. Colorado rallied for 2 wins after firing Hawkins last year, both as home dogs. But then NEB crushed them in Lincoln. We'll see, but I wouldn't touch that game on THUR night.

- Back to yards per play, based on this stat who is the best D in the entire country? Not ALA, LSU, PSU, SC...it's Sparty nation at a ridiculous 2.9 ypp allowed this year. Let's hope this number goes down even further this week vs. Becky. Offensively the top teams are WIS, HOU, GT, STAN, ORE, and BAY.

- In the NFL I think it's a rare thing when desperation comes into play, but we saw it last week with PHI beating WAS. I mistakenly was on the Skins, but I failed to factor in the idea that if PHI would have lost their season was likely over. And the fact that they has played terrible the last 3 weeks as favorites. All in all, I'll nominate my Redskins pick as the worst of the week.

- My other odd ball pick from last week that everyone was against was TB over NO. On this one, my logic was much better. TB was coming off an embarassing L at SF, and clearly they are not that bad of a team. NO was coming in for their 3rd straight road game, which is a rare occurance in the NFL, and their 2nd straight division game. Division games are the ones you circle 1st on your calendar, so playing 2 in row is a tough proposition, especially when both are on the road. TB won and covered as a home dog. These are the things I look at, call me crazy but I think it's a good system for the NFL. The teams are so close talent wise, that I think you need to look for little edges like this to pick consistent winners.

- Lots of double-digit dogs on the slate this week in the NFL, are these good plays? Well, this year, double digit NFL dogs are 9-3, so yes these are a good play. Are all of you reveiwing your NFL picks now and circling MIN, STL, IND, and JAC? On a side note, GB is 2-1 on covering these numbers before their -10.5 road line this week at PURPLE.

Tonight is the only night without football this week...think about how crazy that is. Enjoy your break, we'll fire it up in style again tomorrow night with a nice pair of NCAA games.

Week 8 Lines

One game tonight - if you want it you need to send me your pick before it starts. I don't need all 15, just the TUES game. If you don't want to play the SBC Tuesday game, then follow the regular schedule and send me all 15 of your picks by NOON THURSDAY. Thanks.

FIU
ARKST -3 (TUESDAY)

UCF
UAB 15

UCLA
AZ -4

RUT
LOU 1.5

WV
SYR 14

CIN
USF -1

OKST
MIZZ 6

NC
CLEM -9.5

NILL
BUFF 12

IND
IOWA -22

KST
KAN 14.5

ILL
PUR 5.5

ARK
OLE 15.5

WF
DUKE 3.5

WMU
EMU 16

CMU
BALLST -1

NM
TCU -38.5

LT
UTST -6.5

BC
VT -21.5

NCST
VIR -4

OHIO
AKR 15

GT
MIA -3

TEM
BGU 13

A&M
ISU 17.5

ORE
COL 33

MARY
FSU -16

AF
BOISE -29

NEB
MN 25

ECU
NAVY -10

MEM
TULANE -12.5

AUB
LSU -22

ULL
WKY 4

FRES
NEV -10

MARSH
HOU -18

ULM
NTEX 3.5

ARMY
VAN -8.5

TULSA
RICE 11

UTAH
CAL -1.5

MIAOH
TOL -14.5

PSU
NW 4.5

TN
ALA -28

USC
ND -7.5

WASH
STAN -20

WIS
MSU 7.5

COLST
UTEP -7

MDTN
FAU 6

SMU
SOMISS -3

TT
OK -25

OREST
WASU -3

NMST
HAW -22


NFL

SD
NYJ 0

SEA
CLE -3

ATL
DET -4.5

WAS
CAR -3

CHI
TB 0

DEN
MIA -2.5

HOU
TEN -3

PIT
ARI 4

KC
OAK -3.5

GB
MIN 10.5

STL
DAL -12

IND
NO -15.5

BAL
JAC 10

Standings and $$$

Here are your winners so far - all winners will be paid at the end of the season:

TN - $50
MT- $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
AW - $50

We are appraching the half way point of the season, so here are the overall standings:

TOTAL YTD W L %


MR 65 40 61.9%

SS 62 43 59.0%

RO 61 44 58.1%

TN 61 44 58.1%

GR 61 44 58.1%

CP 60 45 57.1%

MO 58 47 55.2%

MT 58 47 55.2%

JH 58 47 55.2%

MH 56 49 53.3%

LW 55 50 52.4%

GT 55 50 52.4%

MS 55 50 52.4%

AW 52 53 49.5%

JR 51 54 48.6%

JG 51 54 48.6%

MC 50 55 47.6%

54.3% overall, good enough to make some $$$. ROE has a slim 3 game lead at this point and 13 of us are within 10 games of the lead, the other 4 of us are below .500
 
Last Week
Week 7 W L %


GT 12 3 80.0%

RO 11 4 73.3%

JH 10 5 66.7%

SS 9 6 60.0%

MO 9 6 60.0%

MR 8 7 53.3%

MH 8 7 53.3%

TN 8 7 53.3%

MT 8 7 53.3%

MS 8 7 53.3%

JR 7 8 46.7%

LW 7 8 46.7%

AW 6 9 40.0%

GR 6 9 40.0%

CP 6 9 40.0%

JG 5 10 33.3%

MC 5 10 33.3%

We hit 52.2% total last week, one of our weakest weeks of the year. 58% in NCAA and a poor 45% in NFL.
 
NFL YTD
NFL YTD W L %


JR 24 15 61.5%

RO 22 14 61.1%

JG 27 21 56.3%

LW 32 26 55.2%

MT 25 21 54.3%

MC 16 14 53.3%

JH 18 16 52.9%

TN 16 15 51.6%

GT 26 26 50.0%

SS 19 20 48.7%

GR 17 18 48.6%

AW 19 22 46.3%

MH 13 17 43.3%

CP 13 17 43.3%

MO 14 19 42.4%

MS 27 37 42.2%

MR 11 19 36.7%

We are at 50.1% YTD in the NFL - not good enough to make any money, but above the mendoza line at least.
 
NCAA YTD
NCAA YTD W L %


MR 54 21 72.0%

MS 28 13 68.3%

SS 43 23 65.2%

GR 44 26 62.9%

CP 47 28 62.7%

MO 44 28 61.1%

TN 45 29 60.8%

MH 43 32 57.3%

RO 39 30 56.5%

JH 40 31 56.3%

MT 33 26 55.9%

GT 29 24 54.7%

AW 33 31 51.6%

LW 23 24 48.9%

MC 34 41 45.3%

JG 24 33 42.1%

JR 27 39 40.9%

56.8% YTD on total NCAA. 72%...really ROE? If you would be at least average on NFL you'd be running away with this thing! Nice work.
 
$50 on the line again this week...Week 8 line will be coming soon, and as a special bonus this week we have TUESDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ACTION FROM THE SUNBELT CONFERENCE!! Now who's excited!!

Week 7 Review

George Thomas at 12-3 takes home the $100 for week 7. Congrats. He was actually at 11-0 before losing 3 out of his last 4, but still took home the prize by 1 game over RO at 11-4 and 2 over JH at 10-5.

Full standings update and Week 8 games will be coming out tomorrow.

Week 7 Preview - $100 on the line!

This may or may not be a picture of us at the pai gow tables late Sunday night after a lengthy Vegas weekend. I'll start with a quick recap of the glory that was the Vegas 2010 trip:

FRIDAY

Started FRI with huge wins from unlikely sources...namely the Minnesota Lynx $line that netted us +190!! For some reason all of us except G-Reg decided it made sense to go against Boise even though we were so excited Boise was playing FRI and seems to cover every line they see. G-Reg passed on the game, but netted a lucky OVER as the QB scampered in for a meaningless TD with 10 seconds left...it would be a sign of things to come for his weekend. G-Reg and I also nailed a Cardinals over Phillies $line bet that helped ease the pain of the Boise loss. Somehow we avoided the LFL (Lingerie Football League) game that was televised and actually lined on the big board...fun to watch, but would have been more fun to bet and win on that one. Post festivities consisted of pai gow, pai gow, and then a little pai gow. JG and I housed burritos of different types and locations for our first 4 meals of the trip...in hindsight, maybe not the best idea.

SATURDAY

Typically my favorite Vegas day because it's not the last day and it's NCAA Football ya'lll!!! However, this one turned into a disaster. Rounds of bloody mary's that coincided with the start of College Gameday may have been a tough start for us all, but it would only get worse. G-Reg continued housing every line in his path by dominating on large favorites all day long. JG played nearly every ticket of his as a $line, which turns out to be proabably the wrong strategy, but I don't think he cared. Song of the weekend included only the first line of "Bushleaguer" by PJ and it was teamed with about 50-60 different sets of alt lyrics..."How does he do it..." tunrned into "Why am I betting..." "Who am I watching..." "How am I not sleeping..."...you get the idea. The shit show had officially begun once the Gophs got down by a million to PurDON'T. That game became unwatchable almost immediately. Along with OK-TEX, which I decided TEX +11 but OK 1st half was the best combo...net even I guess. We were sitting with a SC fan, so he turned us onto the Gamecocks for a bet, which may have been one of the only actual winners from the team trainwreck group of JG and I in the early games. BTW, Bomb was with us the entire time, but his main plays consisted of Hockey totals, poker room and being ejected from the Mirage poker room, and pai gow at a violent pace! JG's Army club let him down to make sure he had zero winning tickets through the early stuff. After the Gopher disaster was complete, we discovered 5 huge PUR fans disguised in their Iowa jackets and toddler sweaters...this did not go over well. "Who Hates Iowa!?!?" was ringing loud and proud for the rest of the day, and they certainly didn't help the cause by losing in the surest bet of the weekend...PSU-IOWA UNDER 45. So 13-3 is definitely UNDER, and I won't name names, but 2 guys decided to take an IOWA $line ticket that nearly got them harassed out of the building by yours truly. I took some visual proof of one of them, I think it might show up on here at a later date. We lost last second plays on NC, GT, VT, A&M, IND, UCONN...if just a portion of those come through we would have been sitting pretty...but that's VEGAS. JG loved one game this week...KST over MIZZ, but I guess he didn't love it enough to play it in VEGAS. KST wins, and JG is angry, only to be reminded of it Sunday morning as we're walking back into the Mirage and face a guy wearing the most obnoxious MIZZ sweatshirt ever...JG veered at him in the crosswalk, no punches were thrown. SOMISS!! Woo-hoo, we got one! They crushed Navy from the start, only about 10 games down now! FLA went to +14 and we jumped on it...that was not close. ARK over AUB...woo-hoo! We got another one!! Meanwhile G-Reg is cashing ALA, GEO, BAY, LSU, OKST...yadda yadda yadda. "How does he do it..."

JG and I both jumped on these beauties as well...NW+7.5, up 10 at half so +17.5 and still lose easily! UCF...epic fail. ECU/HOU UNDER 73.5...WINNER!! Finally, the whole world loved NEB over OHIOST...and of course Burkhead couldn't break that last little run after the largest comeback win in NEB history to cover the number. We even bet but didn't watch UCLA in the overnight, and they failed to cover by 1/2 a point. In total, it was the least successful College Football Saturday in VEGAS ever for this guy, and I think JG would agree. Thanks god we saved a little cash for Sunday in hope of reviving our sorry looking bankrolls.

SUNDAY

Sunday we awoke to the pleasant sounds of Ween singing "The Rainbow" from my phone. It's an underated song that we decided is the new Iowa team song...it's on the Chef Aid South Park soundtrack, so if you don't know the song you should check it out and tell me it's not the Iowa National Anthem. After many strange sounds and groans while rolling out of bed from our 3 hour slumber, we decided that today was our day. JG and I even chose the correct elevator out of the 6 options on our way down...we couldn't be stopped. NFL only had 12 games on tap, so we figured...let's play them all. 6-2 in early games with 2 other total wins and 2 halftime wins pushed me over the number and made it a 10-2 start to NFL...this is how it's supposed to work!! Highlights of the early games included the Vikings covering the number for the 1st time ever in Football Challenge VEGAS Trip history...1 for 5 now, congrats Purple team, congrats us. JG continued his money line craziness and had a great Vegas moment at the end of OAK-HOU when it looked as if Schaub would run it in to win, but then decided to throw into the endzone and got it picked...JG did the, "Noooooo....F***!!! YESSS!!!!!! YESSS!!!!" While we were in the front row jumping around right next to the TV's...that was a Sunday highlight. G-Reg followed my NFL plays and crushed just as much, I think he was even 1 better because he went BUF over PHI, but then jumped in with me on PHI 2nd half. Late games consisted of a TB -1.5 1st half bet that they covered by about a million, a NE -6 1st half bet that was blown on a Brady endzone pick, and a DEN 2nd half bet that wouldn't have been a winner if not for Jesus H. Tebow. We had no idea he was starting the 2nd half, and we got them at pick'em down 13 in the game against SD at home. Then we see WWTD walking out as QB for the first series and I think everyone with our bet let out a collective, "F***!" But the legend did his QB dive left and QB dive right to make it close enough for us to win. G-Reg also cashed a NE game and SD game ticket during this unreal weekend of being right! So we're up a nice number after the 3pm games, and only one remains. Most all of us jump on everything Falcons that we can get. JG was holding 6 loser Falcon tickets in his hands by the end of SNF! I lost on about 3 Falcons tix, but cashed on the most important one...who scores the first TD? Obviously, at 7:1 odds the answer is Roddy White, and from that point on it didn't matter what else happened. If ATL scores one more or wins outright I could have been way up, but they didn't and I was still extremely happy with the day. Lost a little back playing Pai gow again, and then we were officially spent. JG ended up hugging some Vick Falcon Jersey wearing grandma at the pai gow table afterward, we discussed how an amish guy could be at Harrah's and the logistics of valeting his horse and buggy, what is our favorite Queen song, why some people don't bet on the bonus in pai gow even after hitting a 7-card straight flush, and critical matters like this. 

72 hours of alcohol took it's toll, and the flight back was utter hell...but we survived, I'm feeling like a human again, and I'm ready to go back at the next chance I get!

Well, I guess that wasn't brief, but it's the same crap we talk about for the entire year, so recapping it while it's top of mind seems to be a good idea. Here's our picks.

JR: CIN BAY OKST LSU ORE CAR DET WAS GB NYG CLE BAL TB NE CHI

JG: MSU IND NW ISU TEX AF USC TN DET CLE NE STL JAC BUF MIN

MR: FSU GT MSU OHIOST OKST OK BOISE ORE STAN GEO NE MIN GB NO NYJ

AW: PUR MIZZ TT PITT MARSH USC FAU ULL FLA NE NO DET CHI PHI HOU

GR: FSU NW MICH ILL OKST OK ISU STAN LSU NE NO GB BUF CAR PIT

MH: NW MSU OHIOST PSU WIS OK BYU BOISE ORE LSU NO CAR DET CHI BAL

MC: BAY TULANE BGU CMU KENT BOISE AF UNLV IDAHO UTST BAL PHI JAC IND MIA

SS: FSU MSU WIS OK BOISE ORE STAN LSU FLA ALA PHI IND NO NE GB

RO: MSU WIS TT BOISE ORE OREST LSU ALA AUB PHI NO GB BAL BUF SF

TN: CLEM WIS NW PUR OK BAY OKST USF WY LSU NO GB CAR MIN DAL

MT: MICH OKST A&M BOISE ORE STAN SC NO MIN PHI BAL JAC MIA STL ATL

GT: CLEM WIS OHIOST OKST BOISE STAN USC ALA NO MIN BAL ATL GB BUF OAK

MS: VT WIS MSU OK MIZZ PITT BYU USC LSU NO MIN BUF IND NE DET

CP: OHIOST MICH OKST SMU USC OREST COL ASU LSU FLA NO NE MIA CAR NYG

LW: KAN COLST ORE WASU NEV NO NE NYG MIN BAL GB PHI PIT NYJ CLE

JH: CLEM WIS IOWA OK BOISE ORE STAN LSU SC NE BAL GB PIT ATL CIN

MO: OKST KST CIN STAN USC LSU SC ALA NE GB PHI MIA IND DET CHI

 
Sorry - running out of time here, so we'll be a little abbreviated on the rest of this.
 
CONSENSUS (5+ picking them) 
We went 11-10 last week on these...
 
USC
MSU
WIS
OKST
LSU
BOISE
STAN
OK
ORE
 
CAR
DET
IND
PHI
GB
BUF
BAL
NO
NE
MIN
 
I DIDN'T EVEN SEE IT COMING!

Picks that somebody loves, but the whole FC world is against them...

JG - IND vs. 7 on WIS

JG - TEX vs. 8 on OKST

JG - TN vs. 10 on LSU...seeing a theme here...

LW - COLST vs. 8 BOISE

LW - WASU vs. 7 STAN

LW - KAN vs. 7 OK

CP - ASU vs. 8 ORE

RO - SF vs. 6 DET

JR - WAS vs. 7 PHI

AW - HOU vs. 8 BAL

JR - TB vs. 12 NO

TN - DAL vs. 11 NE

Good luck gentlemen, if you can hit a couple of these that give nearly everyone else a loss, then you are smart...or something like that.

PURPLE

Finally, we have a W...but will that be it? I think yes. The team had a W gift wrapped from them last week, now we're at CHI for SNF and we still are playing McRibb at QB. This could be ugly. I think the D can keep us in it for a while, but a McRibb bounce pass might go the other way and we'll lose on something dumb...CHI 24 MIN 20.

We'll get back to more extensive previews and reviews next week as things calm down a bit around here...sorry for diasppointing you all, I will try to do better next time.

 

Need Week 7 Picks from...

ROE
HEINERT
LUKE W.
SETNICKER
Please send these over by NOON today.

Thanks.

Week 7 Lines

Get me your picks by NOON THURSDAY.

SDST
AF -6

USC
CAL 2.5

HAW
SJST 7

MICH
MSU -3

TOL
BGU 7.5

PUR
PSU -11.5

UTAH
PITT -6.5

IND
WIS -38

SC
MISST 5

LOU
CIN -13

BAY
A&M -10

MIA
NC -2

BUFF
TEM -20

ISU
MIZZ -16

NAVY
RUT -2.5

UNLV
WY -13.5

FSU
DUKE 10.5

RICE
MARSH -5

EMU
CMU -13.5

USF
UCONN 7

BALLST
OHIO -14.5

OKST
TEX 6

GT
VIR 8.5

COL
WASH -17

OHIOST
ILL -3.5

MIAOH
KENT 6

WMU
NILL 1.5

UCF
SMU -2.5

LSU
TN 15.5

UTEP
TULANE -1

BYU
OREST -1

WKY
FAU -3

NM
NEV -29

NTEX
ULL -9

ALA
OLE 23.5

BOISE
COLST 32

VT
WF 7

FLA
AUB 0

CLEM
MARY 8

ECU
MEM 16.5

GEO
VAN 13.5

KST
TT -4

ULM
TROY -10.5

NW
IOWA -7

STAN
WASU 20

IDAHO
NMST -1.5

UAB
TULSA -21.5

OK
KAN 31.5

UTST
FRES 4.5

ASU
ORE -15


NFL

CAR
ATL -5.5

SF
DET -4.5

IND
CIN -8

PHI
WAS 0

STL
GB -15.5

JAC
PIT -14

BUF
NYG -3.5

CLE
OAK -7.5

HOU
BAL -7

NO
TB 4

DAL
NE -7.5

MIN
CHI -2.5

MIA
NYJ -9

Week 6 Review

Sorry for the late updates guys - been a looooong weekends, and still feeling the effects.

Here are the final standigns for Week 6:

Week 6 W L %


MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

MR 11 4 73.3%

CP 11 4 73.3%

LW 10 5 66.7%

MO 10 5 66.7%

RO 9 6 60.0%

MT 9 6 60.0%

GT 9 6 60.0%

JG 8 7 53.3%

MH 8 7 53.3%

SS 8 7 53.3%

JR 7 8 46.7%

GR 7 8 46.7%

JH 7 8 46.7%

TN 6 9 40.0%

AW 5 10 33.3%

MC 5 10 33.3%

CP and MR both tied at 11-4 this week - so the $$$$ will carry over to next week and $100 will be on the line in week 7. In total we hit 54.2% for week 6.
 
Once again no picks submitted by MS so he takes a 4-11 for the overall week.
 
TOTAL NCAA
NCAA W L %


MR 48 17 73.8%

MS 21 11 65.6%

GR 40 21 65.6%

SS 36 20 64.3%

CP 41 24 63.1%

TN 39 25 60.9%

MO 38 26 59.4%

MH 37 28 56.9%

MT 29 23 55.8%

RO 33 27 55.0%

JH 34 28 54.8%

AW 29 26 52.7%

LW 21 21 50.0%

MC 32 33 49.2%

GT 21 24 46.7%

JG 22 27 44.9%

JR 25 36 41.0%

Yearly total = 56.7%, and we hit 53% last week.
 
 
NFL
NFL W L %


JR 19 10 65.5%

JG 24 17 58.5%

RO 17 13 56.7%

LW 27 21 56.3%

MT 21 17 55.3%

TN 14 12 53.8%

CP 13 12 52.0%

MC 13 12 52.0%

GR 15 14 51.7%

SS 17 17 50.0%

JH 14 14 50.0%

GT 22 23 48.9%

AW 17 18 48.6%

MS 26 32 44.8%

MH 11 14 44.0%

MO 11 15 42.3%

MR 9 16 36.0%

51.1% total for the year, 56% last week.
 
 
 
TOTAL OVERALL STANDINGS
 
TOTAL YTD W L %


MR 57 33 63.3%

GR 55 35 61.1%

CP 54 36 60.0%

SS 53 37 58.9%

TN 53 37 58.9%

RO 50 40 55.6%

MT 50 40 55.6%

MO 49 41 54.4%

MH 48 42 53.3%

LW 48 42 53.3%

JH 48 42 53.3%

MS 47 43 52.2%

JG 46 44 51.1%

AW 46 44 51.1%

MC 45 45 50.0%

JR 44 46 48.9%

GT 43 47 47.8%

54.6% for the total season. Only 4 games separate 5th place from 1st place - very competitive at the top right now.
 
Week 7 lines will be coming out later today.

Week 6 Preview...VEGAS WEEK!

17 hours until take off for JR, JG, GR, and AW...

JG will be jumping off that volcano when the LYNX win the WNBA Title tomorrow night.

So last week I went a solid 4-11, so we need to change some things up here for karma.

First, we'll start with the picks...

JR: MIAOH BGU IND VT FLA ARK A&M UCF NEB CAR NYG CIN OAK NYJ DEN


JG: PSU UCONN ARMY BOISE CAL LSU CIN OAK NYJ NO SEA TEN TB GB CHI

MR: WF NEB MICH OK RUT ORE STAN LSU SC ALA NYJ NO GB CHI PHI

AW: NEB MICH A&M MIZZ ARMY ND UCLA GEO TEN TB BUF MIN HOU SD ATL

GR: VT NEB MICH IOWA TEX KAN BAY ORE LSU ALA TEN BUF HOU GB NYG

MH: NEB IOWA IND PUR NW OK BOISE ORE LSU AUB GB MIN NYJ CHI IND

MC: UCF ECU ARMY NAVY BALLST MDTN TROY ULM FAU UTST GB SEA DEN JAC SF

SS: NC NEB MICH PSU A&M ARMY ORE STAN LSU ALA SF MIN CHI NO PHI

RO: VT PSU PUR A&M TEX MIZZ TCU LSU ALA SF NO GB NYG CIN OAK

TN: GT NEB IND NW TEX KAN HOU BOISE SC SJST GB OAK MIN TEN NE

MT: MARY BC MICH BAY WV ORE FLA GB MIN SF NO CHI PHI JAC NYJ

GT: NEB PSU PUR TEX OKST BOISE GB PHI NYJ OAK NYG CIN TB SD DET

MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

CP: PSU MICH OK ARMY BALLST TOL BOISE AZ ASU LSU GB CIN TEN DEN KC

LW: VT PUR TEX OKST RUT GB KC PHI OAK MIN SF NO NE SEA PIT

JH: GT PSU MICH NEB KST SYR OHIO TCU SC PHI MIN NO PIT NYG CHI

MO: MARY CLEM MICH NEB KST A&M BOISE LSU ALA TN MIN CHI KC NYJ TB

 
POPULAR PICKS
These are teams chosen by 5+ of us (~30%+)
-ORE
-BOISE
-TEXAS
-ARMY
-PENN STATE
-LSU
-ALABAMA
-A&M
-MICH
-NEB - most popular pick of the week at 10 guys
 
-NO
-PHI
-NYG
-CIN
-TEN
-MIN
-OAK
-SF
-NYJ
-GB - most popular NFL pick of week with 11 guys
-CHI
 
So if you're just wanting to play the Football Challenge consensus this week...those are your games...10 NCAA and 11 NFL for a total of 21. I'll track this to see how we do.
 
TOSS-UP
Games with 2+ guys on each side
 
MARY(2)-GT(2)
OK(3)-TEX(5)
IOWA(2)-PSU(6)
MIZZ(2)-KST(2)
FLA(2)-LSU(8)
MICH(8)-NW(2)
 
PHI(6)-BUF(2)
SEA(3)-NYG(5)
CIN(5)-JAC(2)
TEN(5)-PIT(2)
OAK(6)-HOU(2)
TB(4)-SF(5)
NYJ(7)-NE(2)
SD(2)-DEN(3)
 
GAME PICKS FOR THE WEEK
 

So my 4-11 probably doesn't give me the right to even pretend to know what I'm talking about with this week's picks, but here they are anyway. Maybe I'm like a good college team and my best performances will come after I've been embarassed...maybe.

CAL-ORE (-23.5)

I like CAL. The number just feels too high in this one.

MARY-GT (-15.5)

MARY's team is apparently on revolt against new head coach Randy Edsall, not a good time for that with the uber productive GT Jackets on the slate this week. I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 63-10 in this one.

OK-TEX (+9)

First thought, TEX defense is too good to be getting that many points. However, this game is usually a route (10+ points) one way or the other, so I feel like the Sooners are getting the smart money in this one. Probably wait until kickoff to figure out where my money is actually going, but I'll say TEX right now. Because I....LIKE...DOGS!

IOWA-PSU (-2.5)

Really really really hate this, but I think Iowa wins this one straight up. PSU plays great D, but I'm really starting to doubt if they can score on anyone. I will not bet it, but I think Iowa is the right side.

MIA-VT(-7.5)

Hokies off the embarassing loss last week welcome in a rival for another night game...this looks tasty. I am not impressed with Miami at all, and I think the Hokies find their offense and house the Canes.

FLA-LSU (-12.5)

Lots of points for the Gators to be getting off a blowout loss to ALA. I'm not sure they ever really expected to win that game anyway. I hate that they have a true Freshman starting at QB this week in a horrible spot like the bayou...but Les Miles is 1-13 as a DD favorite at home, so I'm taking the Gators and points. The grass-eater is due for a mini-scare, it's been way too smooth so far.

AUB-ARK (-10)

AUB pulled the upset on the road last week, they are back on the raod this week against a very good ARK team. I think Petrino and the gang roll up a ton of points on the Tiger and ol' Teddy Roof this week...HOGS cover the large number 49-28.

GEO-TN(+1)

Vols getting points at home looks good to me. GEO still doesn't impress me on D, I think Bray will throw it all over the field on them. I think Dooley really wants this one to make a statement and get TN back on the map in the SEC...VOLS 31-24.

MICH-NW(+3.5)

I think a lot of you have fallen into the MICH trap. NW as a home dog is almost a sure thing this week (even though I don't love +3.5, but I do love the +7.5 they are currently getting!). MICH is due for a letdown, especially after the controlled scrimmage last week. Robinson's twitter account was hacked by an ex, a sure sign of bad things to come for the Maize and Blue. NW wins outright 28-27.

OHIOST-NEB (-9.5)

Buckeyes can't score on anyone, and NEB is going to be excited and angry for their 1st home B10 game and off the terrible performance at WIS. If NEB can put up 24 points they will cover this number.

GOPHERS at BOILERS (-10)

Well, this is a tough one. The game of the week features 2 clubs that are barely fielding teams at this point. One has a brand new coach who is trying to clean up a program that is f'd right now, and the other has a coach who took over a nice program and is slowly working them into f'd status. Seriously, Hope can't survive the season, his teams just continue to get worse each year. I honestly think Gophers $line is the play in this one. Neither team will likely play well, but anything is possible in this crap-tastic contest. I'll say the Gophers force 3 PUR turnovers and score on 1 of them...and we party in Vegas!!! GOPHS 27 PUR 17.

NFL

NO-CAR: Panthers will cover the TD again. That's what Cam Newton does.

PHI-BUF: Really torn on this one, but I think PHI is too good to drop another one in a spot they should win.

SEA-NYG: SEA is terrible, NYG aren't bad, and SEA is travelling 5000 miles to get there...NYG big.

CIN-JAC: How is JAC ever favored over anyone? CIN wins.

KC-IND: I'll be glued to this one...will they even put it on TV in Vegas? I'll take KC, but really...flip a coin.

TEN-PIT: line has dropped to 3, which I think is a great spot to take PIT. They are beat up, but a coach and a defense can win you games like this.

ARI-MIN: Purple must win...will they...yes...again...I've predicted this for the last 3 weeks...for real this time.

OAK-HOU: No Andre Johnson, and I liked OAK in this one before I realized he was out.

TB-SF: I have doubted SF all year, but they might have something this week. Long trip for TB across the country, and they are on a short week. This just feels like the kind of game that they lose.

NYJ-NE: 10 points! Way too much for a club like NYJ that should be in this one after back to back beat downs.

SD-DEN: I'll take DEN in the upset win here against a SD team that I still think is overrated and a DEN team that's decent at home and getting healthier.

GB-ATL: This line has climbed up to nearly a full TD at this point. ATL hasn't played well, I get it, but at home in a revenge game like this from last year's playoffs...ATL $line might be my final Vegas play for the weekend.

CHI-DET: torn on this one, I like DET to win, but feel like 7 is too much to give to a strong D like the Bears...I'll take CHI to cover a close one.

Gentlemen. Enjoy the weekend, I'll try remember as much as I can to document the epic wins and failures from the weekend. Good Luck!!