Week 9 Preview

HATE WEEK will finally come to it's dramatic conclusion on Saturday night. $100 on the line this week - let's see what we've got:

JR: VIR VT MARY IND MN USC FIU SJST NYG BAL MIN JAC DET BUF NE

JG: MIA MN NW PUR MIZZ KST NAVY NM ARK DET BUF NE STL CLE DAL

MR: MSU OHIOST BAY TEX ND ORE CAL ARK GEO TN BUF STL CIN PIT PHI

AW: MIA FSU NC MN PSU WIS FLA BUF CIN DET DAL MIN ARI HOU SD

GR: CLEM MN PSU MSU TEX KST OKST STAN GEO BUF DET PHI NYG CAR KC

MH: OLE STAN TCU NAVY MN PSU MSU WIS NW MICH BUF DAL NE BAL SEA

MC: UTEP AKR KENT BALLST BUFF TCU ORE FIU SJST IDAHO SEA STL PIT CLE DEN

SS: CLEM TEX KST WV ND TCU ORE STAN AUB IDAHO BAL DET MIN SD SF

RO: WIS NEB TEX A&M OK ND TCU FLA HAW SD SF BUF NYG CIN NO

TN: CLEM WIS MSU KST BAY HOU BUFF STAN WKY GEO BUF CIN NE PHI KC

MT: CLEM NEB A&M OK HOU STAN ORE OLE ARK CIN SD DET STL ARI JAC

GT: CLEM FSU WIS IOWA ILL OK BAY TCU ORE CIN JAC NE NYG NO TEN

MS: WIS MIZZ MARSH ND BYU JAC NE NYG BAL MIN CIN NO DET BUF IND

CP: WIS MSU MN PUR UCONN HOU TCU UNLV COL SJST JAC NE NYG BAL MIN

LW: MDTN GT NMST USC WIS NYG MIN IND HOU DEN BUF SF NE PHI SD

JH: VT WIS A&M OKST ORE ASU STAN ARK SC NYG BUF NE PHI SD BAL

MO: CLEM WIS ILL A&M TEX HOU SMU MEM STAN FLA MIN IND NO DET PIT

So far 3 games have picked games, and 3 guys have lost games...CP, MC, JR are all off to 0-1 starts. I hope this isn't setting a tone for the week.
 
GAMES THAT MATTER
 
Double-header Thursday kicks off tonight.
 
RICE-HOU (-27)
The play here has to be HOU. They are getting all the action at 4 to 0 picks this week. It's a big number, but Rice is bad, and HOU is aiming for BCS consideration. Go with the Cougs, even though I don't love this one.
 
VIR (+15) at MIA
I'm still not impressed with MIA. But everything seems to favor VIR in this one - they have the better defense, coming off a bad loss to NCST, and getting a few more points that the power rating suggests they should. MIA is coming off of back to back big wins over NC and GT and they just don't look like they're good enough to cover more than 2 TD's in this one. I'm going CAVS with 2 guys on MIA.
 
BYU at TCU (-11.5)
TCU on Friday night looks like the right side. BYU still just doesn't have the typical fire power to keep up in a shootout like this. Although the offense has improved for the Mormons lately, I think TCU's D will be up to the challenge and they win by 2 TD's. Don't love this one either, but I'll take the Frogs. We have lots of action on this one with 6 on the Frogs and 1 on BYU.
 
NW at IND (+10)
So you have a team who has lost 5 in row with a bad defense favored by 10 points on the road in a tough conference game? This makes no sense to me. My line would have been closer to 4 or 5 with 7 being the max I would put on this one. Clearly, IND is not good either, but getting 10 points as a young team at home to a bad conference opponent...I'll take it. Hoosiers win outright...33-31. I'm the only one on this one, 2 guys on NW.
 
MSU at NEB (-6)
It seems like NEB hasn't played well yet this season, so why would I pick them here? Well, it feels like the ultimate letdown spot for Sparty nation after the big win at home last week. Lincoln will be crazy, as a win would put them in the driver's seat for a B10 title game birth. What scares me is NEB's inability to throw the ball...ever. Sparty's D is good enough to lock down on the run game and for T-Magic to start shot-putting it out there. But the letdown angle for me is too great to like Sparty in this one...NEB 27-20. 5 guys on Sparty and only 2 on NEB.
 
FLA (+2.5) vs. GEO
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is always a fun one...if you're a Gator at least. Mark Richt never beat Spurrier, only beat the Zooker once, and only beat Urban once. How will he fair against Mr. Muschamp? My guess is not good. Brantley will likely be back for the Gators to kick start that offense. Statistically the team are almost identical with both having good D and average O. But Brantley coming back makes a difference to me. Also Richt's track record against FLA and being the favorite make me lean Gators on this one. FLA wins 30-18, because SEC games always have weird scores. 3 guys on each side in this one, definitely one of the bigger swing games this week.
 
ZOOK at PATERNO (-6)
I'm going with the fade Zook at all costs opinion in this one. His team looks beat. They've lost 2 in a row and they are coming into a BYE next week, I don't think they have any reason to step up in a tough situation at Happy Valley this week. BTW, my PSU call for B10 champ still looks okay as they are 4-0 in conference and playing some good ball right now. This one could be a snoozer...PSU 20-10. 2 guys on ILL and 3 on PSU.
 
CLEM (-4.5) at GT
I know it's CLEM, but I'm almost starting to believe in this crew much like AUB of last year. They always have that clunker when they get off to a start like this, but I'm not sure it's coming this year. The toughest game left after this is at a depleted SC team, so GT might be the best shot at a loss they have the rest of the way. GT is playing awful right now - as soon as I started betting them they have taken a turn for the worst and lost their last 2. I have to ride the hot hand and take CLEM here...44-34. FC world agrees with 6 on CLEM and 1 on GT.
 
STAN at USC (+8.5)
I've been waiting for this Cardinal club to slow down for the last 4 weeks, and I think it finally happens this week at USC. I don't think there is any way STAN should be giving more than a TD in this one, so I had to take the points. STAN's first 3 road games were DUKE, AZ, WASU...not exactly a tough slate. This one will be a lot different than those. I think Barkley and the USC running game can keep it close throughout and possibly squeak out a W...TROJANS Win 37-31. Only 2 of us on USC and 7 still riding the STAN wave.
 
WIS (-9) at OHIOST
I hate it, but I think you have to take Becky in this one. They are still a crazy good team and OHIOST is just not this year. Typically I would see OHIOST +9 at home and bet the mortgage on it, but this team just isn't there right now. Defensively, they may be able to slow Becky down a bit and keep this one in range for the majority of the game. But OHIOST's offense is so bad and one dimeniosnal that I don't think it will take too many blunders by the young QB to make this one ugly. I'll say close for a half, and ugly by the end...WIS 28-9. 10 on Becky, 1 on OHIOST.
 
IOWA at MN (+17.5)
Like I wouldn't pick the right side in this one. Here's the deal, our offense sucks. But if we can keep from turning the ball over so much I think there is hope here. This isn't the Iowa defense we're used to seeing, they are very average this year and they struggle with running QB's like always. If Q takes over and calls his own number early and often I think we stay in this thing. Defensively I really don't think we are as terrible as it seems. We've given up too many long plays, so the numbers look pretty rough. We also make too many stupid penalties. If we can cure those 2 things, this game is winnable. A good start is mandatory. I heard today that we have trailed in our last 39! games!!!! Let's try to play with a lead once instead of always having to comeback. McNutt is tough, Coker can run it, but the Iowa offense overall can be contained. I'll say GOPHERS maintain bowl eligibility and put it all together to win 27-24...sounds familiar. 6 of us are on the Gophs, with 1 on Iowa.
 
NFL
I've got 10 minutes, so here are the best bets...
 
NYG over a MIA team that has all but quit on the season and fired their coach.
BAL off an embarassing MNF performance smacks the taste out of ARI this week.
MIN covers the 3.5 but lses outright in CAR...21-20.
TEN is not a great team and shouldn't be a DD favorite over anyone, take INDY.
HOU...see TEN, take JAC.
DET over Jesus H. Tebow, but when you're betting against the big man you never know.
BUF is best bet on the board...WAS is brutally bad and getting worse.
I like SEA over CIN at home, since when did CIN reach favored on the road in tough environment status?
Give me BRADY over PIT, just a better team and off a BYE you know Belichick has some sinister plans for the beat up Steelers.
DAL/PHI - flip a coin, DAL is better but PHI off a BYE....I'll take points and DAL.
 
Good Luck - hope to see some of you celebrating with me and my buddy Floyd on Saturday!!