Thursday, October 13, 2011

Week 7 Preview - $100 on the line!


This may or may not be a picture of us at the pai gow tables late Sunday night after a lengthy Vegas weekend. I'll start with a quick recap of the glory that was the Vegas 2010 trip:

FRIDAY
Started FRI with huge wins from unlikely sources...namely the Minnesota Lynx $line that netted us +190!! For some reason all of us except G-Reg decided it made sense to go against Boise even though we were so excited Boise was playing FRI and seems to cover every line they see. G-Reg passed on the game, but netted a lucky OVER as the QB scampered in for a meaningless TD with 10 seconds left...it would be a sign of things to come for his weekend. G-Reg and I also nailed a Cardinals over Phillies $line bet that helped ease the pain of the Boise loss. Somehow we avoided the LFL (Lingerie Football League) game that was televised and actually lined on the big board...fun to watch, but would have been more fun to bet and win on that one. Post festivities consisted of pai gow, pai gow, and then a little pai gow. JG and I housed burritos of different types and locations for our first 4 meals of the trip...in hindsight, maybe not the best idea.

SATURDAY
Typically my favorite Vegas day because it's not the last day and it's NCAA Football ya'lll!!! However, this one turned into a disaster. Rounds of bloody mary's that coincided with the start of College Gameday may have been a tough start for us all, but it would only get worse. G-Reg continued housing every line in his path by dominating on large favorites all day long. JG played nearly every ticket of his as a $line, which turns out to be proabably the wrong strategy, but I don't think he cared. Song of the weekend included only the first line of "Bushleaguer" by PJ and it was teamed with about 50-60 different sets of alt lyrics..."How does he do it..." tunrned into "Why am I betting..." "Who am I watching..." "How am I not sleeping..."...you get the idea. The shit show had officially begun once the Gophs got down by a million to PurDON'T. That game became unwatchable almost immediately. Along with OK-TEX, which I decided TEX +11 but OK 1st half was the best combo...net even I guess. We were sitting with a SC fan, so he turned us onto the Gamecocks for a bet, which may have been one of the only actual winners from the team trainwreck group of JG and I in the early games. BTW, Bomb was with us the entire time, but his main plays consisted of Hockey totals, poker room and being ejected from the Mirage poker room, and pai gow at a violent pace! JG's Army club let him down to make sure he had zero winning tickets through the early stuff. After the Gopher disaster was complete, we discovered 5 huge PUR fans disguised in their Iowa jackets and toddler sweaters...this did not go over well. "Who Hates Iowa!?!?" was ringing loud and proud for the rest of the day, and they certainly didn't help the cause by losing in the surest bet of the weekend...PSU-IOWA UNDER 45. So 13-3 is definitely UNDER, and I won't name names, but 2 guys decided to take an IOWA $line ticket that nearly got them harassed out of the building by yours truly. I took some visual proof of one of them, I think it might show up on here at a later date. We lost last second plays on NC, GT, VT, A&M, IND, UCONN...if just a portion of those come through we would have been sitting pretty...but that's VEGAS. JG loved one game this week...KST over MIZZ, but I guess he didn't love it enough to play it in VEGAS. KST wins, and JG is angry, only to be reminded of it Sunday morning as we're walking back into the Mirage and face a guy wearing the most obnoxious MIZZ sweatshirt ever...JG veered at him in the crosswalk, no punches were thrown. SOMISS!! Woo-hoo, we got one! They crushed Navy from the start, only about 10 games down now! FLA went to +14 and we jumped on it...that was not close. ARK over AUB...woo-hoo! We got another one!! Meanwhile G-Reg is cashing ALA, GEO, BAY, LSU, OKST...yadda yadda yadda. "How does he do it..."
JG and I both jumped on these beauties as well...NW+7.5, up 10 at half so +17.5 and still lose easily! UCF...epic fail. ECU/HOU UNDER 73.5...WINNER!! Finally, the whole world loved NEB over OHIOST...and of course Burkhead couldn't break that last little run after the largest comeback win in NEB history to cover the number. We even bet but didn't watch UCLA in the overnight, and they failed to cover by 1/2 a point. In total, it was the least successful College Football Saturday in VEGAS ever for this guy, and I think JG would agree. Thanks god we saved a little cash for Sunday in hope of reviving our sorry looking bankrolls.

SUNDAY
Sunday we awoke to the pleasant sounds of Ween singing "The Rainbow" from my phone. It's an underated song that we decided is the new Iowa team song...it's on the Chef Aid South Park soundtrack, so if you don't know the song you should check it out and tell me it's not the Iowa National Anthem. After many strange sounds and groans while rolling out of bed from our 3 hour slumber, we decided that today was our day. JG and I even chose the correct elevator out of the 6 options on our way down...we couldn't be stopped. NFL only had 12 games on tap, so we figured...let's play them all. 6-2 in early games with 2 other total wins and 2 halftime wins pushed me over the number and made it a 10-2 start to NFL...this is how it's supposed to work!! Highlights of the early games included the Vikings covering the number for the 1st time ever in Football Challenge VEGAS Trip history...1 for 5 now, congrats Purple team, congrats us. JG continued his money line craziness and had a great Vegas moment at the end of OAK-HOU when it looked as if Schaub would run it in to win, but then decided to throw into the endzone and got it picked...JG did the, "Noooooo....F***!!! YESSS!!!!!! YESSS!!!!" While we were in the front row jumping around right next to the TV's...that was a Sunday highlight. G-Reg followed my NFL plays and crushed just as much, I think he was even 1 better because he went BUF over PHI, but then jumped in with me on PHI 2nd half. Late games consisted of a TB -1.5 1st half bet that they covered by about a million, a NE -6 1st half bet that was blown on a Brady endzone pick, and a DEN 2nd half bet that wouldn't have been a winner if not for Jesus H. Tebow. We had no idea he was starting the 2nd half, and we got them at pick'em down 13 in the game against SD at home. Then we see WWTD walking out as QB for the first series and I think everyone with our bet let out a collective, "F***!" But the legend did his QB dive left and QB dive right to make it close enough for us to win. G-Reg also cashed a NE game and SD game ticket during this unreal weekend of being right! So we're up a nice number after the 3pm games, and only one remains. Most all of us jump on everything Falcons that we can get. JG was holding 6 loser Falcon tickets in his hands by the end of SNF! I lost on about 3 Falcons tix, but cashed on the most important one...who scores the first TD? Obviously, at 7:1 odds the answer is Roddy White, and from that point on it didn't matter what else happened. If ATL scores one more or wins outright I could have been way up, but they didn't and I was still extremely happy with the day. Lost a little back playing Pai gow again, and then we were officially spent. JG ended up hugging some Vick Falcon Jersey wearing grandma at the pai gow table afterward, we discussed how an amish guy could be at Harrah's and the logistics of valeting his horse and buggy, what is our favorite Queen song, why some people don't bet on the bonus in pai gow even after hitting a 7-card straight flush, and critical matters like this. 

72 hours of alcohol took it's toll, and the flight back was utter hell...but we survived, I'm feeling like a human again, and I'm ready to go back at the next chance I get!

Well, I guess that wasn't brief, but it's the same crap we talk about for the entire year, so recapping it while it's top of mind seems to be a good idea. Here's our picks.

JR: CIN BAY OKST LSU ORE CAR DET WAS GB NYG CLE BAL TB NE CHI


JG: MSU IND NW ISU TEX AF USC TN DET CLE NE STL JAC BUF MIN

MR: FSU GT MSU OHIOST OKST OK BOISE ORE STAN GEO NE MIN GB NO NYJ

AW: PUR MIZZ TT PITT MARSH USC FAU ULL FLA NE NO DET CHI PHI HOU

GR: FSU NW MICH ILL OKST OK ISU STAN LSU NE NO GB BUF CAR PIT

MH: NW MSU OHIOST PSU WIS OK BYU BOISE ORE LSU NO CAR DET CHI BAL

MC: BAY TULANE BGU CMU KENT BOISE AF UNLV IDAHO UTST BAL PHI JAC IND MIA

SS: FSU MSU WIS OK BOISE ORE STAN LSU FLA ALA PHI IND NO NE GB

RO: MSU WIS TT BOISE ORE OREST LSU ALA AUB PHI NO GB BAL BUF SF

TN: CLEM WIS NW PUR OK BAY OKST USF WY LSU NO GB CAR MIN DAL

MT: MICH OKST A&M BOISE ORE STAN SC NO MIN PHI BAL JAC MIA STL ATL

GT: CLEM WIS OHIOST OKST BOISE STAN USC ALA NO MIN BAL ATL GB BUF OAK

MS: VT WIS MSU OK MIZZ PITT BYU USC LSU NO MIN BUF IND NE DET

CP: OHIOST MICH OKST SMU USC OREST COL ASU LSU FLA NO NE MIA CAR NYG

LW: KAN COLST ORE WASU NEV NO NE NYG MIN BAL GB PHI PIT NYJ CLE

JH: CLEM WIS IOWA OK BOISE ORE STAN LSU SC NE BAL GB PIT ATL CIN

MO: OKST KST CIN STAN USC LSU SC ALA NE GB PHI MIA IND DET CHI

 
Sorry - running out of time here, so we'll be a little abbreviated on the rest of this.
 
CONSENSUS (5+ picking them) 
We went 11-10 last week on these...
 
USC
MSU
WIS
OKST
LSU
BOISE
STAN
OK
ORE
 
CAR
DET
IND
PHI
GB
BUF
BAL
NO
NE
MIN
 
I DIDN'T EVEN SEE IT COMING!
Picks that somebody loves, but the whole FC world is against them...

JG - IND vs. 7 on WIS
JG - TEX vs. 8 on OKST
JG - TN vs. 10 on LSU...seeing a theme here...
LW - COLST vs. 8 BOISE
LW - WASU vs. 7 STAN
LW - KAN vs. 7 OK
CP - ASU vs. 8 ORE

RO - SF vs. 6 DET
JR - WAS vs. 7 PHI
AW - HOU vs. 8 BAL
JR - TB vs. 12 NO
TN - DAL vs. 11 NE

Good luck gentlemen, if you can hit a couple of these that give nearly everyone else a loss, then you are smart...or something like that.

PURPLE
Finally, we have a W...but will that be it? I think yes. The team had a W gift wrapped from them last week, now we're at CHI for SNF and we still are playing McRibb at QB. This could be ugly. I think the D can keep us in it for a while, but a McRibb bounce pass might go the other way and we'll lose on something dumb...CHI 24 MIN 20.

We'll get back to more extensive previews and reviews next week as things calm down a bit around here...sorry for diasppointing you all, I will try to do better next time.
 

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