Things to PONDER

This week seems to be all about change, so I decided we'll rename the former "What we learned" to a more appropriate title considering the happenings of this week.

First, I'll go on record, for those of you that weren't a part of the FC this April when the Purple team went out on a limb and took Mr. Ponder....I like the guy. He has all the qualities I look for in my NFL QB's. Maybe he was a reach for where the Purple took him in April, but if you like a guy then I like the aggressive move to get him. Last week showed us a glipse (although I put no stock in mop-up duty with 2nd teamers and 3rd teamers on both sides of the ball) but I still think he displayed a lot of good qualities in his short time against CHI. Anyway, no matter how this turns out, I'm on board with the change and I'm on board with Ponder as our guy for the future. Will he beat GB this week...no. But I think he still keeps my hope alive for the 6+ wins this year!! Sadly, this is the best I've felt about our Purple QB in as long as I can remember.

Now, on to some interesting things I've uncovered/heard/read/created this week.

- First, those of you who love to bet the big favorites and have been winning this year...nice work. This usually isn't the case, but take a look at the numbers for the big favorites this season:

20+ point favorites are 38-23 on the year in NCAAF for a nice 62% return.

Now, the question is, does this trend continue, or do the number continue to inflate on the great teams to a point where this reverses itself and evens out to a more realistic 50/50 split?

- One of the things I love to look for when finding a pickable DOG is a great D getting points. How do I classify a great D? Well, being the stats weirdo that I am, I like to look at PPG they give up but more importantly I like to look at yards per play given up. Anything under 5 = good in my mind. Anything under 4.5 is great. Using this logic, last week if I would have taken every good/great D that was getting points last week I would have gone 7-1...hmmmm.

- On the other side of that, I also look for poor offenses that are giving a lot of points. In my mind, these are also very good opportunities to look at and take the dog that's getting just a few too many points. Poor offenses to me are defined as scoring <25ppg and/or under 5 yards per play. If I would have bet against each favorite that had a "bad offense" I would have gone 7-2 in those games last week...hmmmm.

BTW - I'm really disappointed that nobody jumped on the Sun Belt Tuesday Night yesterday...ARKST housed, but no one benefitted.

- Kansas State is 6-0 and has been an underdog in their last 4 games. That's impressive, it almost feels like once they are favored...this week...things will come crashing down and they'll lose. I'm not recommending putting anything of value on the Jayhawks this weekend, but it's just a hunch at this point. KAN also has the benefit of being a home dog in a rivalry game...dangerous.

- 1st year head coaches are a tricky proposition when trying to handicap a game. They are the most unpredictable, sometimes good and sometimes bad, week in and week out. If you have 4+ years as a track record for a HC you have a chance to predict the spots where his team will play up or down and which opponents they handle well and which ones they don't. However, 1st year HC are constantly changing their teams because they typically have ugly overall records in year 1, but the good coaches always seem to find 2-3 spots where the team gets together and rises up to challenge someone as a big DOG. It's even worse when you get 2 1st year coaches together, such as MIA-NC last week. By the numbers, NC -2 looked like the play. However, with 2 1st year coaches and a Sr. QB for MIA and a So. QB for NC, it didn't play out this way. I read a stat this offseason that 1st year coaches in both NCAA and NFL on average see their games finish the farthest off from the spread one way or the other vs. non-1st year coaches. So when betting on teams like this...beware, you never know what kind of team will show up.

- Does firing your coach during the season make your team play better for the remainder of the year or worse? We'll find out how ARI reacts on Thursday night when they host UCLA without Angry Mike Stoops hollering up and down the sidelines for the first time in a long time. I have concluded that playing in the last game of the season or a Bowl game with an outgoing coach or interim coach is a good thing that inspires your team to play better than they actually are. However, the results are a little mixed for mid-season firings. The GOPHERS lost their first 2 games without Brew last year before covering their final 3 and outright winning the last 2. Colorado rallied for 2 wins after firing Hawkins last year, both as home dogs. But then NEB crushed them in Lincoln. We'll see, but I wouldn't touch that game on THUR night.

- Back to yards per play, based on this stat who is the best D in the entire country? Not ALA, LSU, PSU, SC...it's Sparty nation at a ridiculous 2.9 ypp allowed this year. Let's hope this number goes down even further this week vs. Becky. Offensively the top teams are WIS, HOU, GT, STAN, ORE, and BAY.

- In the NFL I think it's a rare thing when desperation comes into play, but we saw it last week with PHI beating WAS. I mistakenly was on the Skins, but I failed to factor in the idea that if PHI would have lost their season was likely over. And the fact that they has played terrible the last 3 weeks as favorites. All in all, I'll nominate my Redskins pick as the worst of the week.

- My other odd ball pick from last week that everyone was against was TB over NO. On this one, my logic was much better. TB was coming off an embarassing L at SF, and clearly they are not that bad of a team. NO was coming in for their 3rd straight road game, which is a rare occurance in the NFL, and their 2nd straight division game. Division games are the ones you circle 1st on your calendar, so playing 2 in row is a tough proposition, especially when both are on the road. TB won and covered as a home dog. These are the things I look at, call me crazy but I think it's a good system for the NFL. The teams are so close talent wise, that I think you need to look for little edges like this to pick consistent winners.

- Lots of double-digit dogs on the slate this week in the NFL, are these good plays? Well, this year, double digit NFL dogs are 9-3, so yes these are a good play. Are all of you reveiwing your NFL picks now and circling MIN, STL, IND, and JAC? On a side note, GB is 2-1 on covering these numbers before their -10.5 road line this week at PURPLE.

Tonight is the only night without football this week...think about how crazy that is. Enjoy your break, we'll fire it up in style again tomorrow night with a nice pair of NCAA games.