Thursday, September 30, 2010

Week 5 Picks

It's that time again, when everyone's confidence is high visualizing a 15-0 or 14-1 kind of week before your hopes ultimately come crashing down by about 4pm on Saturday...but we keep coming back for more. Here's what it looks like for this week:

JR: CLEM, NAVY, IND, WIS, TEX, CMU, GEO, LOU, TOL, FLA
JG: ULM, MIA, FSU, ILL, WASU, MICH, TEX, FLA, WASH, PSU
MR: OKST, AUB, NW, MIA, NCST, WIS, OK, ALA, WASH, BOISE
AW: OKST, MN, VT, MICH, WIS, OK, GEO, OREST, BC, USC
GR: NW, OHIOST, NCST, UCLA, IND, WIS, NC, FLA, STAN, PSU
MH: NW, OHIOST, NCST, MICH, MSU, OK, LSU, BC, ORE, PSU
MC: UTST, OHIO, TEM, KENT, AF, BUFF, CMU, TULSA, MARSH, LT
SS: NW, MIA, MICH, WIS, MARY, OREST, ND, ALA, ORE, IOWA
RO: OKST, BYU, MIA, OLE, NAVY, WIS, OK, ND, PSU, HAW

JR: BAL, STL, CLE, WAS, NYG
JG: NYJ, SF, DEN, CAR, DET
MR: NO, DET, IND, SD, NE
AW: BAL, CIN, GB, HOU, NE
GR: CIN, DET, HOU, NYG, NE
MH: BAL, CIN, IND, NYG, NE
MC: CIN, CAR, IND, PHI, NE
SS: NYJ, SF, HOU, SD, NE
RO: BUF, SEA, HOU, IND, NE

Consensus Picks: 
NCAA: none - anything we had 4+ guys on we also had 1 or 2 against, so we're getting some good variety this week. I think everyone is searching for a rebound after the utter disaster that was last week so we're trying some new strategies.

NFL: HOU, IND, NE
Out of these, I think HOU is the best. I'd go against IND and NE...but that's just me (5-10 in NFL!)

HEAD-SCRATCHER OF THE WEEK
Before you all start praying for me to call out your bad pick of the week, which essentially guarantees you a W, I've decided to expand this segment in hopes of testing its magical powers to see what happens. So for this week, I'll call out SS for his pick of MARY at -7 over DUKE. I know it's DUKE, the team I picked last week that got housed once again, but here's my logic. DUKE is coming off back to back blowout losses, which gives them an emotional edge in the College game assuming Cutcliffe hasn't completely lost his team. Maryland's atrocious pass D was exposed last week by lowly FIU. I think DUKE comes out bombing early to get ahead on the road, and MARY, with their complete lack of a passing game, will not have enough fire power to come back. DUKE wins this thing 31-20 and cover the +7. There you Steve, take your MARY pick to the bank and keep pressing the button until your finger hurts because it's an official lock right now.

Other Considerations for the HSOTW:
JG: ILL +18 vs. OHIOST - Bucks have rolled everyone, Zook still coaches at ILL...Bucks roll again.
GR: NC -10.5 vs. ECU - this club looks like it could get death penalty like sanctions after what came down this week for the Heels...can't believe they'll be ready to go against the fun n' gun of ECU.
MH: LSU -14.5 vs. TN - LSU scores about 14 points a game on offense, TN is coming off a near death blow against UAB...it has to be closer than 2 TD's, right?

If I go 4-0 this week (or 0-4 I guess) then we're taking this method and selling it to all those suckers that need help picking games.


ONE BET TO SAVE MY LIFE
New segment - the surest of the sure things this week is....................
TOLEDO -3 hosting WYOMING. I'm going with the strategy of, "I need 3 good reasons to like a side in a game, otherwise I shouldn't (but probably still will) put a bet on it." So here's the scoop for TOLEDO:

1. Just won 3 straight games on the road as a DOG in all 3, finally coming home with something to prove after the opening game beatdown vs. AZ. (I realize this sets them up for a letdown, but at home I just can't see it.)

2. WY played okay last week hosting AF, but have been outgained by 900 yards this year and have less than zero offensive ability.

3. Turnovers - TOL gets them, WY gives them...TOL +6, WY -4...when I only have to cover a FG at home with a superior team and the TO edge is likely to go my way...well, that's like printing money.

4. Yep, a bonus reason...WY fancies themselves as a passing team, but they have struggled passing the football and TOLEDO is amongst the National leaders in Sacks...good combo for the Rockets.

PROGNOSTICATING THE PROGNOSTICATORS
I'm full of fun new segments this week - in this one I'm going to make my call for who will finish with the best record of the week (besides my weekly 15-0 projection) and I'll also take a stab at worst record of the week.

BEST: I think I'm leaning BOMBER this week at 11-5...love most of the NCAA picks and the majority of NFL plays...let's see how close I am.

WORST: Sorry, but I'm going with JG at 4-11...maybe this will be a good omen as well.

BIG GAMES
A&M - OKST
Once again, to pick a good winner I think you need 3 reasons, so here's why I like OKST.
1. Great home team and home favorite.
2. A&M poops their pants in big games the last few years, and really they have forever...ESPN Thursday on the road = big game.
3. Both off a bye week, but I give the edge to the better coach, which in this case is Gundy...he's a man, he's like 42-43 now, but he blows the doors off of Sherman.
OKST 38 A&M 28

MIA-CLEM
1. MIA coming off a huge THUR win, in store for a letdown vs. an extremely physical CLEM squad.
2. CLEM coming off a bye and off a tough loss at AUB, both good signs for an energized performance.
3. Turnovers - Jacory on the road is good for a couple of picks at least, and CLEM wins the turnover battle.
Physical home dog off a bye and loss vs. finesse passing team coming off a big W on the road...
CLEM 24 MIA 17

WIS-MSU
1. Both have run the hell out of the ball and played nice D, but MSU struggles against the pass and WIS is expected to have one or both of their injured top WR's back for Saturday.
2. WIS's efficiency is much high than MSU (1st downs and punt diff), they blow away Sparty in this area.
3. Pass rush...WIS has one, MSU really has not thus far. Even though both run really well, it will come down to the passing game and getting a pass rush...WIS wins this battle.
Plus WIS needs a nice emotional win to get hyped up before the eventual let down next week vs. the team without a coach. Dantonio is going to be coaching from the booth, and come on...Sparty with hype and expectation...I think we all know how that story ends.
WIS 33 MSU 27

TEX-OK
1. TEX is coming off a crushing at the hands of UCLA at home...TEX wins 10-12 games every year, so losing 2 in a row is not an option.
2. Neutral field with these 2 even teams and TEX is getting more than a FG and playing with some extra motivation.
3. OK, despite their 4-0 start, has been outgained in 3 of their games and they are living off TO's.
4. TEX struggles to run the ball, but they can stop it...and OK can't. OK allows nearly 180/game at 4.3 ypc, which is ridiculous for a team like that. TEX is more efficient, has a far superior defense, and is playing with a chip on their shoulder.

TEX 31 OK 17

GEO-COL
GEO is 1-3 and only a 4 pt. fav at another lame duck coach, Dan Hawkins of COL...AJ Green's 1st game back...they have to make it happen this week, right!?!? I'm betting on it.

FLA-ALA
1. The Gators are getting 9 points...giving great teams any points makes it a no-brainer, but more than a TD?!? WTF?
2. FLA comes in healthy after cruising through UK, while ALA was fighting for their lives last week in ARK.
3. ALA wants to run it, but I think FLA will shut that down more than anyone else has in the past. Force ALA to the air and then let that dynamic pass rush get to McElroy. While on the other side, ALA's D has not been as dominant and struggled to force a lot of TO or get to the QB.
ALA may still win this game at home, but I can't expect it to be by more than 9 points.
ALA 13 FLA 10

STAN-ORE
1. Power football vs. finesse football...this is the prime example of this...pick the power team with the better defense (OHIOST vs. ORE last year)
2. Funny thing about Power STAN, they have the top QB in the nation to burn you over the top as well...and I think we all saw how susceptible the Ducks passing D is against ASU.
3. ORE is winning with a +4.5 TO margin PER GAME so far...STAN has only turned it over 5 times all year long...so waiting for that big turnover likely will put the Ducks in a tough spot.
This should be an extremely fun game to watch, and even though it's in Autzen which is one of the toughest places in the nation to play (unless you're Boise), I'm taking the Cardinal.

STAN 41 ORE 34

Finally....BREW t-minus 8 games and counting...tick, tick, tick..

LIAR PAT FITZGERALD vs. LAME DUCK BREW
I hope you all heard that Pat Fitztgerald, a guy I really like, said that MN is one of the best coached teams in the country. He instantly lost a ton of credibility on that one comment alone. But I'm sure it's just some coach speak and a tactic to remind his crew that this is in fact a B10 game this week and it's on the road against a team that should (SHOULD) be hungrier than even for a W. NW as a road favorite just doesn't smell right, does it? I mean, it's an improved program, but as a road favorite against anyone in the B10...I'm not sold. They are much more dangerous as a dog, but I think they could have some trouble this week.

Gophers come out and play like their usual self, NW throws it all over the place with their quirky annoying offense, and we'll roll into half around 14-10...Gophs down. In H2 the home dogs unite and mount a comeback behind the arm of AWEB and the hands of #5 to jump in front of the smart kids 27-24....only to lose in heartbreaking fashion on a last second drive... 30-27 smart kids. Get us a nice juicy, disappointing loss to really motivate the kids next week to come to Madison and win the axe for the 1st time since Rhys ran across the field and stole it.

NFL
I'm determined to fix this NFL issue I'm having right now. For the first time, I locked my picks in on Tuesday afternoon and never changed anything all week...let's hope that works. I feel really good about probably 8-10 games in the NFL this week, so we'll see if I have something figured out or not.

BAL - love them at PIT, 2 great D's, only 1 great offense...BAL wins on the road.
STL - SEA can't win on the road, STL is improved and looking for W #2.
SF - getting 8 and being a desperate team against an ATL team looking for a cruise control game...love SF.
CLE - +3 at home against a rival who has to be the ugliest 2-1 team in the league. Give me Seneca and give me points (with a pick 6 from CPalmer and a Cribbs return for TD).
TEN - the DEN trainwreck rolls into a very, very good TEN team this week. I know it's a bad number at -7.5, but I love TEN.
DET - +16 is a nice spot for them, more than 2 TD's in the NFL is just a plea to bet it this way. I have to say the same with CAR +15.
HOU - after the DAL letdown, they will recover nicely and house OAK.
JAC - +8, call me crazy, but I think this is the week for the JAGS to make Del Rio's last stand. They ALWAYS play IND tight, and I think getting more than a TD puts them in a position to be on the right side for Sunday.
WAS - +7 at rival PHI. Before all the Vick lovers harass this one...JAC and DET...wow, that's the hype, you beat 2 of the worst 5 teams in the league? DMc looking for a little revenge factor...definitely a WAS outright win coming here as the Skin D plays inspired after allowing 30 to STL last week.
NYG - after the way they looked last week and the horse shoe that CHI has had in their ass for the last week or so...this seems like an easy pick.

NE-MIA
I have gone back and forth on this one, but I finally went against you all and picked MIA. At home for the 2nd straight evening game, I think they have the better D by far...but are at a disadvantage at QB and coach. Well, call me crazy, but I'm going to pick MIA anyway because dogs on MNF have not lost yet.

Wow. That took longer than I thought. We must be getting close to Vegas time because I have way too many strong opinions on way too many games this week.

Good Luck!!

Need Picks from...

ROE, HEINERT, OLSON

Please send them over in the next few hours. Thanks.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Tim Brewster: The Legacy

Since the 4 year is all but officially over, I figured I'd go over the stellar legacy that TE Timmy is going to leave at my favorite University. 


First, let's review that magical day when we first heard the double top secret name that the old Sconny Maturi came up with after paying off Mason a billion dollars and spending more to hire a masterful search firm to get the right man for the job. We turned down Lane Kiffin, who went on to coach the Raiders, the Vols, and now USC. Yep, he must suck, definitely not good enough for us. We turned down Charlie Strong, who is in his 1st year at Louisville as a head man this season and will be a success...mark it down. Instead, Joel was fixated on a TE coach from the NFL to come and lead his lost program who had been hanging in mediocrity for the last 5-7 years without any sign of moving up. 


Why Brewster? Well, that was an easy question...he's the greatest recruiter in the history of the world, just ask him. First of all, he comes from the mighty Mack Brown legacy, which isn't exactly what I look for in my football coach. Yes, Mack has been very successful, but he's a total figure head kind of coach and his actual coaching ability is a little suspect. Plus he's at TEX, and you must suck if you can't win in TEX. TE Timmy was never a head coach at any level, not even a coordinator...don't you kind of wonder how he even made the first cut of the candidates without having any of these almost mandatory prerequisite experiences? But my god is he a salesman, which is great if your job is to sell TEXAS to kids looking for a place to play. Unfortunately, when you have a great sales pitch but nothing to back it up, like we have here for the last 4 years, the great salesman angle just starts to get down right annoying. Did you hear him this week? "We're 3 plays away from being a 4-0 team right now." What!?! You've been routed twice, and the close game you lost was to USD!! There's a time to be positive, but this is not one of them. We've sucked so far, and you need to admit that and get angry and find a way to make it change. I'm sure we all trust him to do that, right?

But the thing that bothers me the most with this guy isn't even his arrogant salesman style, it's his hypocritical and fickle mind that has no idea what the hell he wants to do. I have about 5 major examples of this, and the most recent just happened this week. So remember the whole Stoudermire controversy? Well, it comes out now that the reason he wanted to bail was that they asked him to move to DB. A little background in case you're not familiar with TS, he was lightly recruited out of HS as a DB but was a HS QB, switched to WR/RB early in his freshman year in our spread offense, became a starting WR last year, now is being asked to switch back to DB at the 25% point of his JUNIOR year. I would be pissed too! How do you not classify a guy to a spot and let him actually develop there? Well, it's because he's absolutely clueless.


How about our offensive philosophy? He came into a team with one of the best running games in the nation and decided we need to run the spread because it's the future of NCAA football. So we try to recruit a billion WR's and get this high-powered speed attack with our power players...wait, that didn't work great. By year 3 TE Timmy decided we need to "pound the rock" and just by saying that it will magically happen...then let's hire an OC from the NFL with super complex schemes who is looking to move up the ladder in the NFL but finding no takers at this point. Well, that offense really didn't work either. Now we've come full circle back to a Mason like offensive plan, only we have a much less effective running game. Not a bad 4 year run, 3 drastically different plans, 3 different OC's in 4 years. Nice plan Timmy.


Defense? Well, in his first year we were the worst defense in the nation when we were trying to run pro schemes and getting torched by everyone on our way to 1-11. For year 2 we were preaching simplicity, and we saw improvement with DC #2. Then he bolts for AUB and we need to find our 3rd DC in 3 years. Enter WIS/NEB reject Kevin Cosgrove. With a boatload of seniors last season the defense was adequate. I honestly thought our D has been better as a whole under Brew than it was under Mase. But then comes this season, and I realize we are young, but there is no way it should be this bad. We have year 2 of a DC for the 1st time under Brew, but our numbers are actually much worse than they were in 2007 (1-11!!) when we were the worst defense in the nation! Youth is one thing, but not having any kind of fundamental ability is just unexcusable.


Which brings me to another pair of great quotes from TE Timmy the hypocrite: 2007 when he took over before the 1-11 meltdown year, "The cupboard is not bare here, we have enough here right now to be a good team and win." Fast forward to the end of the year and you get the salesman retracting that and going with, "we didn't have much to work with, but MY recruiting will surely fix this problem ASAP." The before this season, knowing he has no excuse for sucking this bad, he came out with the claim before the season that, "youth will not be an excuse for poor play," but sure enough, as soon as the USD loss, "well, we're very young and improving." Which is it? How long do you need to build this magical power program that you speak of? Seriously, you are playing with 99% of your recruits at this point and we have zero results. 


To his credit, I think the recruiting and talent level has improved drastically since his hire, but the problem is doing something with this talent. For comparison, Mase was a D recruiter but brought these guys up to become a C level team. Brew is a C+ recruiter, but the lack of any coaching ability leads us to become a D level team. So I think we've gotten to the bottom of what counts for more...better players or better coaches.


How about this novel idea...let's hire a guy who can do both! Now clearly, MN is not a destination job at this point, but neither was WIS about 20 years ago and now look at those bastards. The bottom line is that Joel got duped by a great salesman, and now he's paying for it. If the club loses to NW this weekend and then gets housed at WIS I think that will be it. Any more embarassment this season will end this ugly 4 year run before we even welcome the Hogeyes into TCF for the 1st time. I honestly believe that an ugly pair of losses to start the B10 will force Joel or Bruiniks or whoever is running the show over there to make a statement and fire him immediately before total chaos ensues. Firing a coach in OCT during a lost season is not a big deal. It actually allows you enough time to find a suitable replacement, which really is the only thing worth talking about regarding Gopher Football at this point. 


We'll save the memorable moments montage until the actual change takes place, but I don't see any way that he survives this season. So the attention turns to what is next. I think it's time to get serious about our football program and actually try and play with the big boys and act like a B10 team. Brew is getting $1M per year, obviously, they low balled it because they had to make up for the miserable Mason extension mistake from the year before firing him. So we've been paying 2 coaches for most of Brew's tenure, but now that's over. Maturi made a brilliant move by giving him the bogus extension last season for a reduced buy out, which is just bizarre that Brew would agree to this knowing in his heart he can't coach. So the firing will cost the U basically nothing. Now is the time to go out and get yourself in the middle of the B10 instead of the bottom for a coach...salary wise. If you pay enough, you can get what you want. Ferentz makes over $3M/year in Iowa. I don't think you have to get this outrageous...although I would do it for Chris Petersen or someone of that ilk. I'm starting to compile a realistic list which isn't ready for primetime yet, but I think they have 2 potential courses of action.


1) Hire a current head coach from a smaller school who has star potential. Throw some big $$$ at a guy that you are 100% convinced can be our guy for the next 12 years. Obviously, this takes some major work in getting through the BS and figuring out who is the perfect fit. I think hiring some kind of advisement for this would be a minimal step. Talk to guys who have had success and guys who worked for other great coaches and great programs as coordinators before getting their 1st gig. Your coach has to have a specialty (offense or defense) and he has to be able to understand the problems and how to fix them...a fatal flaw for TE Timmy. 


2) Go for the star coordinator. This is riskier, but it can be just as effective if you find the right guy. You need to look at programs you respect and coaches you respect and want to model your team after, then raid their staff and start building your team. Again, all this is very possible with the magical allure of $$$. We are a B10 team with a brand new stadium and a current team full of athletic guys just looking for a little guidance and coaching. Not a terrible situation to get into if you have aspirations of being a head coach someday.


Sorry for the uber long post, but it's a lot of thoughts I've been sitting on for a while (since USD) and needed to let the world know. Now let's go beat NW on our way to the Rose Bowl!!

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Week 5 Lines

10 NCAA and 5 NFL picks by NOON on THURSDAY


A&M  
OKST -3.5
   
BYU  
UTST 6
   
ULM  
AUB -34
   
VAN  
UCONN -7
   
NW  
MN 5
   
MIA  
CLEM 3
   
KAN  
BAY -9
   
FSU  
VIR 7.5
   
OHIOST  
ILL 18
   
OHIO  
EMU 8
   
TEM  
ARMY 3.5
   
UK  
OLE -2
   
VT  
NCST 5
   
KENT  
MIAOH -1.5
   
TULANE  
RUT -14.5
   
IDAHO  
WMU 2.5
   
TCU  
COLST 33.5
   
NAVY  
AF -9
   
WASU  
UCLA -25.5
   
MICH  
IND 13.5
   
WIS  
MSU 2
   
ECU  
NC -10.5
   
BUFF  
BGU -7
   
TEX  
OK -4
   
FIU  
PITT -18.5
   
BALLST  
CMU -15.5
   
TN  
LSU -14.5
   
GEO  
COL 4
   
DUKE  
MARY -7
   
NILL  
AKR 13.5
   
UTEP  
NM 14.5
   
ASU  
OREST -5
   
TT  
ISU 8.5
   
GT  
WF 10
   
SMU  
RICE 12
   
LOU  
ARKST 5
   
TULSA  
MEM 9.5
   
WY  
TOL -3
   
FAU  
USF -21
   
ULL  
NTEX -4
   
ND  
BC 2.5
   
FLA  
ALA -9
   
WASH  
USC -10
   
BOISE  
NMST 40
   
MARSH  
SOMISS -10.5
   
STAN  
ORE -6.5
   
PSU  
IOWA -7
   
NEV  
UNLV 19.5
   
LT  
HAW -10
 ---------------  
NYJ  
BUF 5
   
BAL  
PIT -1.5
   
SEA  
STL 1.5
   
SF  
ATL -8
   
CIN  
CLE 3
   
DEN  
TEN -7.5
   
CAR  
NO -15
   
DET  
GB -16
   
HOU  
OAK 3
   
IND  
JAC 8
   
WAS  
PHI -7
   
ARI  
SD -9.5
   
CHI  
NYG -3
   
NE  
MIA 0
   

Standings through September

4 weeks down, many to go...but here's a look at the standings:

TOTAL

MH 34 26 56.7%
MC 34 26 56.7%
RO 32 28 53.3%
GR 32 28 53.3%
MR 30 30 50.0%
AW 30 30 50.0%
JR 29 31 48.3%
JG 29 31 48.3%
SS 28 32 46.7%




NFL


AW 9 6 60.0%
MR 8 7 53.3%
RO 8 7 53.3%
MH 8 7 53.3%
JG 7 8 46.7%
MC 7 8 46.7%
SS 6 9 40.0%
GR 6 9 40.0%
JR 5 10 33.3%








NCAA



MC 27 18 60.0%
MH 26 19 57.8%
GR 26 19 57.8%
RO 24 21 53.3%
JR 24 21 53.3%
SS 22 23 48.9%
MR 22 23 48.9%
JG 22 23 48.9%
AW 21 24 46.7%











GR had the only profitable week going 9-6 overall. AW hit his 2nd week of 4-1 in NFL picks to take the overall NFL lead. Overall, a very ugly week for us.

We're hitting 51.5% overall for the year, pretty average. A robust 47.4% in NFL (my 5-10 is really helping this out!) and a decent 52.8% in NCAA.

I think we've figured some thing out and worked out some of the kinks, so hopefully October will bring more success.

Our consensus picks went 3-3 on the week, as has been the trend.


But the big news is that my "Headscratcher of the Week" has moved to a dynamic 0-4 or 4-0 depending on how you look at it. UCLA was my bad bet last week, and they housed TEXAS. Now, before you all start emailing me and begging to be called out in this week HSOTW, I'm thinking of listing more than 1 bad bets that I disagree with just to see if this has some mythical, magical powers that are beyond my control. We'll see what happens.


So the BEARS are going to the Super Bowl...yeah. Just wait, that trainwreck will happen sooner or later. The personnel combo they have with the Mad Scientist and a bad OL and a INT happy QB is bound to blow up into something very ugly. Their schedule looks easy, but give it a little time and then they'll come back to where they belong.

Did I really pick Derek Anderson to cover more than a FG at home last week...please call me out on these before I make dumb picks like this.

I probably should have listed the Gophs as the headscratcher of the week. Seriously, I have no clue what kind of team is going to show up the rest of the way. Clearly, everyone thought they played okay against USC and expected them to handle a MAC team...but this team has gone and played 100% the opposite of what we all expect, which is why I think they might be dangerous this week. But with a lame duck coach who looks to have totally lost his team, I think it's a dangerous bet. More on TE Timmy later this week.

Purple - woo-hoo! A Win!! Nice win, but did we really need to pick the great Shaun Hill off twice in the end zone to preserve the cover?!? Come on, I could have really used that Lions pick. Why do these games look so obvious about 5 minutes after they are done? I always seem to find a reason to justify what happened...this week, the Purple were a desperate team that probably shouldn't have covered...but it's the Lions! 2 things I learned...stop betting against my favorite team, stop betting for the Lions! I don't think we looked that good outside of AD and the Defense. Favre still looks a little rough and I'm scared to death about our OL and lack of passing game over 10 yards. Let's hope we catch a few breaks and split these next few tough games before we get into the home stretch and really start to gel with Sid back in the lineup. Just survive, the Pack will be there and the Bears will fail...just stay alive until you can get hot at the end of the year.

Week 5 lines coming soon - no breaks. BTW, I looked ahead and TUES and WED will not be an off night for much longer because the always entertaining MAC mid-week games will be starting a week from tonight!

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Carnage of Week 4

It was ugly guys...here's where we're at:

JR: 5-10
JG: 7-8
MR: 5-9 +GB
AW: 8-7
GR: 9-5 +GB
MH: 7-7 +GB
MC: 8-6 +GB
SS: 3-11 +GB
RO: 5-9 +GB

We've hit a brutal 44% so far this week, a GB cover would greatly help that...but some of us can't be saved for week 4.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Week 4 Picks

Before we get to the picks, we've got news on B10 teams:

IOWA: the Jewel is done for another year...ACL. Problem is, IOWA has literally zero depth at RB after Robinson this season..ruh-roh.

WIS: Freshman All-American LB Chris Borland for the season with a shoulder...tough to replace this guy in the middle of that D.

MN: no injuries to report, just a defection. Troy Stoudermire was apparently suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team" and has now said he's done at MN. Perhaps the first rat to jump ship before the eventual fall out that comes with the firing of a coach. It sounds like a locker room issue with Troy...fun stuff.

Now, before we get to LIONS week, I wanted to relive one of my all-time favorite Vegas moments, and likely my #1 favorite LIONS-PURPLE moment ever....


Such an ridiculously amazing moment, and still the Purple couldn't cover the number.

Anyway, on to the picks for Week 4:

JR: MIZZ, DUKE, ARK!, WF, IDAHO, BYU, FAU, SC, BAY, ORE
JG: MIA, NW, BGU, BALLST, WASU, WF, UCLA, OREST, MN, ORE
MR: PITT, NW, ALA, ND, FLA, GEO, SC, UTAH, MN, ORE
AW: MIA, GT, VT, PUR, KST, DUKE, ALA, NC, BYU, MDTN
GR: MIA, NCST, ARMY, ALA, NC, STAN, OK, MN, AZ, ORE
MH: VT, WASU, PSU, ND, AUB, OREST, MN, LSU, AZ, ORE
MC: UCONN, AF, ARKST, TULANE, IDAHO, MARSH, FAU, LT, UTEP, UNLV
SS: PITT, GT, MICH, PUR, TN, PSU, SC, OREST, MN, LSU
RO: MIA, NW, VT, IOWA, ALA, PSU, ND, SOMISS, BOISE, MN

JR: BAL, DET, IND, ARI, MIA
JG: CLE, DET, PIT, PHI, ARI
MR: SF, ATL, NE, NYJ, GB
AW: SF, TEN, PIT, ATL, PHI
GR: CIN, PIT, WAS, IND, GB
MH: ATL, WAS, PHI, IND, GB
MC: CIN, PIT, NO, IND, GB
SS: SF, NE, SD, NYJ, GB
RO: SF, BAL, SEA, IND, GB

CONSENSUS PICKS (3-4 last week)
MN-6 (scary)
ORE-5

SF-4
PIT-4
IND-5
GB-6

4 road favs as our locks for NFL...yikes. If we do better than 2-2 here I'll be shocked.

HEAD SCRATCHER OF THE WEEK (2-0 last 2 weeks!)
Once again, the honor this week goes to JG for his UCLA +16.5 over TEXAS. Now I don't think it's a terrible pick, but look at this. UCLA coming off a big blowout W over HOU, TEX coming off a sloppy W over TT...but they dominated defensively once again. My question is, can UCLA even score against TEX? I'm going with 7 points tops, which means can TEX score 24+. This is a legit question, but at home coming off a sloppy game...yeah, I think they can. I'll go 38-3 TEXAS. So congrats in advance JG on your pick that is sure to be correct.

GAME PREDICTIONS
MIA at PITT
Lots of action on this game, but I like PITT. Frankly, I'm still not sure Da 'U' is anywhere close to being back to their perceived dominant level. PITT is a tough club, at home on a Thursday, as a dog, and coming off a bye. Lots of stuff to like. Picking Jacory on the road to cover more than a FG against a good D in a hostile environment is a scary thought for me. I'll go PITT 21-20.

Side note - IOWA is a GREAT pick this week, if I could actually pick them. Giving 28 against a really BAD BALLST team is a layup. But it's Iowa, so I'm holding out hope for a Cardinals upset. Thanks to all of you for not making the Hogeye mistake again this week.

ARMY-DUKE
Okay, I know I pick the Army game every week but come on man! Only 6.5 point dog on the road against a DUKE offense that can score points and just got destroyed by BAMA? Meanwhile, Army coasted to their first blowout win in forever over NTEX last week. This is just setting up to be a really lop-sided one in favor of DUKE and perhaps the next Gopher coach David Cutcliffe...if you can turn around DUKE football you are welcome in MN.

ALA-ARK
Lots of BAMA love this week...except for this guy. I was thinking of ARK earlier in the week, then a read a couple more things and listened to some "experts" and now I really love ARK in this one. ALA defense will give up some points to this potent offense, and the ARK defense isn't a bad as it has been the last couple of years. I see a shootout (in SEC terms, which means a score in the 20's) so I love ARK to cover and lose a close one...ALA 24-21.

WF-FSU
Lock of the century, WF covers 17.5. Historically, they are great as a DD dog, they are coming off an extreme beatdown while FSU is rolling in off a huge blowout W. This is too easy.

NEV-BYU
Same theory here - NEV housed my CAL club last Friday night, and BYU lost back to back road games the last 2 weeks including a beatdown at FSU. Don't get too excited about this NEV club,  BYU will not go to 1-3, and NEV is not a for real contender. BYU +3.5

WV-LSU
Love the 7+ point dog here as well. WV can play some D, as can LSU. The difference comes where LSU has zero competance on offense, but WV does. I don't think WV wins this thing, but it's definitely a TD or less so they will cover.

BAY-RICE
BAY -7.5, W. Rice is terrible, BAY is coming off a beat down against TCU, but they are actually a decent little club that scores a lot of points. It's not much of a road trip to get to Rice, and they will crush.

CAL-AZ
I like CAL +6.5. CAL, once again, coming off a huge ass kicking looking to mount a comeback in conference play. AZ coming off one of the largest wins in the programs history is in perfect position for a letdown.
CAL wins outright 31-27.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at LAME DUCK BREW
Well, this one is a must win if we have any hope of salvaging this season. I think it's clear that barring a 6-2 B10 run, Brew is done...so there is no need making this point any longer. NILL can't really throw, which should help us. I think we'll play some pretty nice defense this week and maybe show some dominance (can you really use that word with this club?). Offensively, I think we'll be able to run it at them, once again this is an undersized D that we should be able to wear down. Bottom line, I'll give us an uninspired win...

GOPHERS 28 NILL 20

NFL PREDICTIONS
Call me crazy, but there's a lot of NFL games I like this week.
BAL -10.5 vs. CLE: Ravens come out and explode offensively and play dominant D...38-10.
TB will beat PITT.
NO will win and cover over ATL.
HOU will send DAL to 0-3.
WAS and Haslett will handle his old club STL and cover the 4 on the road.
IND will destory DEN, too much doubt on IND right now - they're great, DEN is a mess.
ARI rebounds to beat Gradkowski and OAK by a TD.
MIA will beat NYJ and Sancheese will look bad again.

KITTYS at PURPLE
Do the Vikes ever cover this one as a DD fav? It doesn't seem like it. And DET doesn't even look totally awful this year. I still don't think we find our offense, even though the Purple will surely win this game...right. But I give them zero chance to cover the 10.5.

PURPLE 23 KITTYS 17.

Good Luck!

Vote of confidence for Brew?...or has a decision already been made?

Just read this from earlier in the week, these are the comments of U Pres. Bruiniks from a MN Daily interview...not a good sign for Timmy B, but maybe a great sign for us fans:

The Gophers have started out the season 1-2 including a loss to South Dakota. Are you concerned about the direction of the football team?

I was deeply disappointed with the loss [to South Dakota]. I think we have done some of the right things in terms of trying to rebuild our football traditions and to put us on the path, I think, to a more successful winning strategy.

We need a stronger football program here at the University of Minnesota. Our fans deserve it and our students, faculty and staff deserve [it].

I’m guardedly optimistic, but I would say to all of our fans, we have high aspirations for Gopher football, and we’re not going to be satisfied with mediocre results and a mediocre season.

Do you think Coach Tim Brewster is the right man to help the Gophers reach those high aspirations?

I think Coach Brewster has done some things that I appreciate and respect …

A lot of the building blocks are in place to build and sustain a successful program, but at this point we’re simply going to have to wait and see how well we do and how successful these strategies are at establishing a strong foundation for the future.


Fare thee well and adieu Mr. Brew. 

Need Picks from...

ROE and BOMB...please send them over in the next couple of hours.

Thanks.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Week 4 Lines

You know the routine...10 NCAA/5 NFL, send them in by NOON ON THURSDAY.


MIA  
PITT 3.5
   
TCU  
SMU 17.5
   
BUFF  
UCONN -17.5
   
NCST  
GT -8.5
   
CMU  
NW -8.5
   
VT  
BC 3.5
   
FIU  
MARY -10.5
   
BGU  
MICH -23
   
BALLST  
IOWA -28
   
TOL  
PUR -12.5
   
UAB  
TN -13.5
   
UCF  
KST -5.5
   
MIAOH  
MIZZ -18.5
   
AF  
WY 11.5
   
ARMY  
DUKE -6.5
   
USC  
WASU 24
   
ALA  
ARK 7
   
WF  
FSU -17.5
   
NC  
RUT 0
   
EMU  
OHIOST -42.5
   
TEM  
PSU -17
   
UCLA  
TEX -16.5
   
ARKST  
TROY -12
   
TULANE  
HOU -20.5
   
STAN  
ND 3.5
   
IDAHO  
COLST 7
   
OK  
CIN 17
   
NEV  
BYU 3.5
   
UK  
FLA -14.5
   
OHIO  
MARSH -5.5
   
MDTN  
ULL 2.5
   
GEO  
MISST -2
   
NTEX  
FAU -6
   
AKR  
IND -21
   
NMST  
KAN -22.5
   
SOMISS  
LT 6
   
WKY  
USF -26.5
   
FRES  
OLE -2
   
SC  
AUB -2.5
   
OREST  
BOISE -16.5
   
SJST  
UTAH -32.5
   
UTST  
SDST -7.5
   
BAY  
RICE 7.5
   
NILL  
MN -4.5
   
WV  
LSU -7
   
MEM  
UTEP -9.5
   
CAL  
AZ -6.5
   
NM  
UNLV -7.5
   
ORE  
ASU 10.5
------------  
SF  
KC 1
   
CIN  
CAR 3.5
   
CLE  
BAL -10.5
   
DET  
MIN -10.5
   
TEN  
NYG -3
   
PIT  
TB 2.5
   
ATL  
NO -4.5
   
BUF  
NE -13.5
   
DAL  
HOU -3
   
WAS  
STL 4
   
PHI  
JAC 3
   
SD  
SEA 5.5
   
IND  
DEN 5
   
OAK  
ARI -4
   
NYJ  
MIA 0
   
GB  
CHI 3