Week 5 Picks

It's that time again, when everyone's confidence is high visualizing a 15-0 or 14-1 kind of week before your hopes ultimately come crashing down by about 4pm on Saturday...but we keep coming back for more. Here's what it looks like for this week:

JR: CLEM, NAVY, IND, WIS, TEX, CMU, GEO, LOU, TOL, FLA
JG: ULM, MIA, FSU, ILL, WASU, MICH, TEX, FLA, WASH, PSU
MR: OKST, AUB, NW, MIA, NCST, WIS, OK, ALA, WASH, BOISE
AW: OKST, MN, VT, MICH, WIS, OK, GEO, OREST, BC, USC
GR: NW, OHIOST, NCST, UCLA, IND, WIS, NC, FLA, STAN, PSU
MH: NW, OHIOST, NCST, MICH, MSU, OK, LSU, BC, ORE, PSU
MC: UTST, OHIO, TEM, KENT, AF, BUFF, CMU, TULSA, MARSH, LT
SS: NW, MIA, MICH, WIS, MARY, OREST, ND, ALA, ORE, IOWA
RO: OKST, BYU, MIA, OLE, NAVY, WIS, OK, ND, PSU, HAW

JR: BAL, STL, CLE, WAS, NYG
JG: NYJ, SF, DEN, CAR, DET
MR: NO, DET, IND, SD, NE
AW: BAL, CIN, GB, HOU, NE
GR: CIN, DET, HOU, NYG, NE
MH: BAL, CIN, IND, NYG, NE
MC: CIN, CAR, IND, PHI, NE
SS: NYJ, SF, HOU, SD, NE
RO: BUF, SEA, HOU, IND, NE

Consensus Picks: 
NCAA: none - anything we had 4+ guys on we also had 1 or 2 against, so we're getting some good variety this week. I think everyone is searching for a rebound after the utter disaster that was last week so we're trying some new strategies.

NFL: HOU, IND, NE
Out of these, I think HOU is the best. I'd go against IND and NE...but that's just me (5-10 in NFL!)

HEAD-SCRATCHER OF THE WEEK
Before you all start praying for me to call out your bad pick of the week, which essentially guarantees you a W, I've decided to expand this segment in hopes of testing its magical powers to see what happens. So for this week, I'll call out SS for his pick of MARY at -7 over DUKE. I know it's DUKE, the team I picked last week that got housed once again, but here's my logic. DUKE is coming off back to back blowout losses, which gives them an emotional edge in the College game assuming Cutcliffe hasn't completely lost his team. Maryland's atrocious pass D was exposed last week by lowly FIU. I think DUKE comes out bombing early to get ahead on the road, and MARY, with their complete lack of a passing game, will not have enough fire power to come back. DUKE wins this thing 31-20 and cover the +7. There you Steve, take your MARY pick to the bank and keep pressing the button until your finger hurts because it's an official lock right now.

Other Considerations for the HSOTW:
JG: ILL +18 vs. OHIOST - Bucks have rolled everyone, Zook still coaches at ILL...Bucks roll again.
GR: NC -10.5 vs. ECU - this club looks like it could get death penalty like sanctions after what came down this week for the Heels...can't believe they'll be ready to go against the fun n' gun of ECU.
MH: LSU -14.5 vs. TN - LSU scores about 14 points a game on offense, TN is coming off a near death blow against UAB...it has to be closer than 2 TD's, right?

If I go 4-0 this week (or 0-4 I guess) then we're taking this method and selling it to all those suckers that need help picking games.


ONE BET TO SAVE MY LIFE
New segment - the surest of the sure things this week is....................
TOLEDO -3 hosting WYOMING. I'm going with the strategy of, "I need 3 good reasons to like a side in a game, otherwise I shouldn't (but probably still will) put a bet on it." So here's the scoop for TOLEDO:

1. Just won 3 straight games on the road as a DOG in all 3, finally coming home with something to prove after the opening game beatdown vs. AZ. (I realize this sets them up for a letdown, but at home I just can't see it.)

2. WY played okay last week hosting AF, but have been outgained by 900 yards this year and have less than zero offensive ability.

3. Turnovers - TOL gets them, WY gives them...TOL +6, WY -4...when I only have to cover a FG at home with a superior team and the TO edge is likely to go my way...well, that's like printing money.

4. Yep, a bonus reason...WY fancies themselves as a passing team, but they have struggled passing the football and TOLEDO is amongst the National leaders in Sacks...good combo for the Rockets.

PROGNOSTICATING THE PROGNOSTICATORS
I'm full of fun new segments this week - in this one I'm going to make my call for who will finish with the best record of the week (besides my weekly 15-0 projection) and I'll also take a stab at worst record of the week.

BEST: I think I'm leaning BOMBER this week at 11-5...love most of the NCAA picks and the majority of NFL plays...let's see how close I am.

WORST: Sorry, but I'm going with JG at 4-11...maybe this will be a good omen as well.

BIG GAMES
A&M - OKST
Once again, to pick a good winner I think you need 3 reasons, so here's why I like OKST.
1. Great home team and home favorite.
2. A&M poops their pants in big games the last few years, and really they have forever...ESPN Thursday on the road = big game.
3. Both off a bye week, but I give the edge to the better coach, which in this case is Gundy...he's a man, he's like 42-43 now, but he blows the doors off of Sherman.
OKST 38 A&M 28

MIA-CLEM
1. MIA coming off a huge THUR win, in store for a letdown vs. an extremely physical CLEM squad.
2. CLEM coming off a bye and off a tough loss at AUB, both good signs for an energized performance.
3. Turnovers - Jacory on the road is good for a couple of picks at least, and CLEM wins the turnover battle.
Physical home dog off a bye and loss vs. finesse passing team coming off a big W on the road...
CLEM 24 MIA 17

WIS-MSU
1. Both have run the hell out of the ball and played nice D, but MSU struggles against the pass and WIS is expected to have one or both of their injured top WR's back for Saturday.
2. WIS's efficiency is much high than MSU (1st downs and punt diff), they blow away Sparty in this area.
3. Pass rush...WIS has one, MSU really has not thus far. Even though both run really well, it will come down to the passing game and getting a pass rush...WIS wins this battle.
Plus WIS needs a nice emotional win to get hyped up before the eventual let down next week vs. the team without a coach. Dantonio is going to be coaching from the booth, and come on...Sparty with hype and expectation...I think we all know how that story ends.
WIS 33 MSU 27

TEX-OK
1. TEX is coming off a crushing at the hands of UCLA at home...TEX wins 10-12 games every year, so losing 2 in a row is not an option.
2. Neutral field with these 2 even teams and TEX is getting more than a FG and playing with some extra motivation.
3. OK, despite their 4-0 start, has been outgained in 3 of their games and they are living off TO's.
4. TEX struggles to run the ball, but they can stop it...and OK can't. OK allows nearly 180/game at 4.3 ypc, which is ridiculous for a team like that. TEX is more efficient, has a far superior defense, and is playing with a chip on their shoulder.

TEX 31 OK 17

GEO-COL
GEO is 1-3 and only a 4 pt. fav at another lame duck coach, Dan Hawkins of COL...AJ Green's 1st game back...they have to make it happen this week, right!?!? I'm betting on it.

FLA-ALA
1. The Gators are getting 9 points...giving great teams any points makes it a no-brainer, but more than a TD?!? WTF?
2. FLA comes in healthy after cruising through UK, while ALA was fighting for their lives last week in ARK.
3. ALA wants to run it, but I think FLA will shut that down more than anyone else has in the past. Force ALA to the air and then let that dynamic pass rush get to McElroy. While on the other side, ALA's D has not been as dominant and struggled to force a lot of TO or get to the QB.
ALA may still win this game at home, but I can't expect it to be by more than 9 points.
ALA 13 FLA 10

STAN-ORE
1. Power football vs. finesse football...this is the prime example of this...pick the power team with the better defense (OHIOST vs. ORE last year)
2. Funny thing about Power STAN, they have the top QB in the nation to burn you over the top as well...and I think we all saw how susceptible the Ducks passing D is against ASU.
3. ORE is winning with a +4.5 TO margin PER GAME so far...STAN has only turned it over 5 times all year long...so waiting for that big turnover likely will put the Ducks in a tough spot.
This should be an extremely fun game to watch, and even though it's in Autzen which is one of the toughest places in the nation to play (unless you're Boise), I'm taking the Cardinal.

STAN 41 ORE 34

Finally....BREW t-minus 8 games and counting...tick, tick, tick..

LIAR PAT FITZGERALD vs. LAME DUCK BREW
I hope you all heard that Pat Fitztgerald, a guy I really like, said that MN is one of the best coached teams in the country. He instantly lost a ton of credibility on that one comment alone. But I'm sure it's just some coach speak and a tactic to remind his crew that this is in fact a B10 game this week and it's on the road against a team that should (SHOULD) be hungrier than even for a W. NW as a road favorite just doesn't smell right, does it? I mean, it's an improved program, but as a road favorite against anyone in the B10...I'm not sold. They are much more dangerous as a dog, but I think they could have some trouble this week.

Gophers come out and play like their usual self, NW throws it all over the place with their quirky annoying offense, and we'll roll into half around 14-10...Gophs down. In H2 the home dogs unite and mount a comeback behind the arm of AWEB and the hands of #5 to jump in front of the smart kids 27-24....only to lose in heartbreaking fashion on a last second drive... 30-27 smart kids. Get us a nice juicy, disappointing loss to really motivate the kids next week to come to Madison and win the axe for the 1st time since Rhys ran across the field and stole it.

NFL
I'm determined to fix this NFL issue I'm having right now. For the first time, I locked my picks in on Tuesday afternoon and never changed anything all week...let's hope that works. I feel really good about probably 8-10 games in the NFL this week, so we'll see if I have something figured out or not.

BAL - love them at PIT, 2 great D's, only 1 great offense...BAL wins on the road.
STL - SEA can't win on the road, STL is improved and looking for W #2.
SF - getting 8 and being a desperate team against an ATL team looking for a cruise control game...love SF.
CLE - +3 at home against a rival who has to be the ugliest 2-1 team in the league. Give me Seneca and give me points (with a pick 6 from CPalmer and a Cribbs return for TD).
TEN - the DEN trainwreck rolls into a very, very good TEN team this week. I know it's a bad number at -7.5, but I love TEN.
DET - +16 is a nice spot for them, more than 2 TD's in the NFL is just a plea to bet it this way. I have to say the same with CAR +15.
HOU - after the DAL letdown, they will recover nicely and house OAK.
JAC - +8, call me crazy, but I think this is the week for the JAGS to make Del Rio's last stand. They ALWAYS play IND tight, and I think getting more than a TD puts them in a position to be on the right side for Sunday.
WAS - +7 at rival PHI. Before all the Vick lovers harass this one...JAC and DET...wow, that's the hype, you beat 2 of the worst 5 teams in the league? DMc looking for a little revenge factor...definitely a WAS outright win coming here as the Skin D plays inspired after allowing 30 to STL last week.
NYG - after the way they looked last week and the horse shoe that CHI has had in their ass for the last week or so...this seems like an easy pick.

NE-MIA
I have gone back and forth on this one, but I finally went against you all and picked MIA. At home for the 2nd straight evening game, I think they have the better D by far...but are at a disadvantage at QB and coach. Well, call me crazy, but I'm going to pick MIA anyway because dogs on MNF have not lost yet.

Wow. That took longer than I thought. We must be getting close to Vegas time because I have way too many strong opinions on way too many games this week.

Good Luck!!