BIG TEN PREVIEW - 3rd attempt!

Hopefully, the 3rd time will be the charm with this thing. I guess the blog was having issues last week, so we'll see what happens.

#1 PENN ST. PR - 8
Still the team to beat in the B10, but they will not be nearly as dominant as 2008. Clark is back at QB, and he's solid. However, only 2 OL return, which could be a very big issue. This moves the offense down from 40 ppg to about 33 in my mind. On defense, they only allowed 12 ppg in 2008. 2 DL and 2 LB return, so the D should not fall off that much, but I think they fall to about 17 ppg, still very good. The schedule is very managable, OSU is in Happy Valley so they get the nod over tOSU. At Sparty and at NW could be pesky...as well as hosting the Gophs on the always dangerous VEGAS WEEK...but overall, my numbers call for an undefeated season. However, I don't expect this to happen, so I'll say (11-1) because they are not elite.

#2 OHIO ST PR - 8
The 2nd coming of Christ is back for year 2 at QB, hopefully he knows how to throw this season. My bet is he will - and the offense will improve. They only averaged a pedestrian 28 ppg last year, so Pryor's improvement along with 3 returning OL move them up a FG to about 31 ppg. On D, they lost a couple of anchors in the LB core. 3 DL return and only 1 LB, but obviously the talent cupboard is not bare. They will be fine, but down a bit to about 17 ppg from the 13 ppg of 2008. The main reason they are the runner-up this year is the schedule...USC and at PSU will be very difficult. I bet they lose both and go (10-2).

#3 IOWA PR - 7.5
This team is going to be solid, and I hate to say that...but there are holes and potentially large indidcators that it will not be all peachy in hick ville this year. Stanzi is back, and he's fine at QB...but there is absolutlely nothing behind him, like not even a T-Mort caliber backup. (Strategy #1 - hurt Stanzi = IOWA LOSS). They return 3 OL, so as long as the QB stays healthy they should be about the same as 2008 on offense at 30 ppg. On D, 5 of the front 7 return. All 3 LB's are back, but they lose both DT's...which could also be an issue. They gave up a ridiculous 13 ppg in 2008 - this will not be repeated. I'll say this moves to about 18 ppg, and puts them just a notch below the elite in the B10. However, the toughest thing for the Hogeyes will be the slate of games. At PSU, at OSU, at MSU...should all be losses, the pesky Cyclone game is also probably due for an upset...so I'll say (8-4).

#4 MICHIGAN ST. - PR - 7
I'm not 100% sold that this team is ready to join the elite in the conference just yet. They really weren't that impressive last year at 26-22 ppg. for a +4 ptdiff. Sparty will be breaking in a new QB, likely sophomore Nichol and only 3 OL return to a very average group. With these 2 indicators, I'll say the offense is = to down a bit. On D only 2 return up front, and 3 LB's come back. Dantonio is a defense guy, so the D will likely continue its improvement. The schedule has a lot of toss-ups on it: at ND, at ILL, IOWA, at MN, NW all could go either way. They also host PSU in the finale. My bet is that they find a way to lose quite a few of these as well as one or two they probably shouldn't...(8-4).

#5 NORTHWESTERN - PR - 7
Pat Fitzgerald can coach, but this club is still too short on talent to be elite. Mike Kafka returns as the starter at QB this year. I still am not sold on this guy - so I'll say he's a downgrade to Bacher. 4 OL return which is good, but the talent level isn't that great. I'll say the offense is down a notch to about 23 ppg. The big change LY was the defense that allowed only 19 ppg. 4 of the front 7 come back, 2 DL and 2 LB. However, I think they still perform well and move to about 21 ppg. I see 4 for sure losses on the schedule, and possibly more if Kafka blows...but I'll say (8-4).

#6 ILLINOIS - PR - 6.5
The Illini are the popular sleeper pick this year in the conference. Let me tell you why I think a lot of people are wrong...they gave up 27 ppg last year, 3rd worst in the B10. Guess who's coming back from that unit? 1 DL and 1 LB...yikes. On offense, Juice returns, as do 3 mediocre OL - but they have a new OC with a different system, which cannot be ignored. I'll say the offense is the same to slightly improved, and the defense might actually be worse. Zook still sucks as a coach, so I'll give Illinois a (7-5) prediction this year.

#7 MINNESOTA - PR - 6.5
Our Maroon and Gold come in a little lower than I initially thought, but it's a tough run this year for the team. The schedule is infinitely tougher than last year, but the team is better. Weber returns with 4 OL - loaded up front for the new scheme the OC Fisch will bring. The offense will improve to at least an average 27 ppg. On D, 5 of the front 7 are back, and another new DC is in place. I'll say this unit drops a bit as well to keep the team on about the same level as last year overall. My numbers call for 5 or 6 losses, I'll go optimistic (shocker) and say (7-5).

#8 MICHIGAN - PR - 6.5
DickRod is back for year 2, who's excited? They should be much improved, but still not back to "Meeeshigan" level. 5 OL return to an outstanding unit, but they will likely be starting a true freshman at QB...even so, they will not score 20 ppg again. I expect an average of 27. On defense, they gave up 29 ppg in 2008. Wow, bad numbers for anyone let alone the mighty Michigan. 4 of the front 7 are back, only 1 DL...but Greg Robinson comes over from the 'Cuse to help out the D. I bet they improve, but they will not be elite. If they get by ND the hype will be there for a 4-0 club...but I have them potentially losing 6 of the final 8. I'll say (7-5).

#9 WISCONSIN - PR - 6
This could be the final nail in the coffin of BB. Probably starting a freshman at QB, 2 OL return...offense might be down a bit. On a bad defense that allowed 25 ppg last season, Becky will only return 2 of the front 7, 1 DL and 1 LB. This unit will likely continue the downward trend that we have all been enjoying throught BB's tenure. I have them at only 1-2 B10 wins, and a barely bowl eligible (6-6) overall. Good times!!

#10 INDIANA - PR - 5.5
Surprise - they aren't in the cellar! This might come as a shock to some, but I like this squad more than #11, their in state neighbor. 4 OL return to a surprisingly good unit. They have Chappell, a Jr. QB with some experience. The D returns 5 of the front 7, and can only improve on the 35 ppg allowed in 2008. I'll sat they beat the Boilers and go (3-9).

#11 PURDUE - PR - 5
Danny Hope takes over a tough situation. A new QB, Elliot, is a senior but has ridden pine his whole career. 4 OL return, but not a lot of talent is there. 2 DL and 2 LB are back, but a brand new system on each side leaves me skeptical. Nord is the new OC from FAU - the Gophs crushed his pathetic offense last year. Hope got his DC, Landholm, from Eastern Kentucky...hmmm. For me, it all comes together to equal a (1-11) campaign from the Boilers.


There you go - thoughts? Am I way off? Any ideas?

Let me know what you think.

Later Guys.

BIG TEN Preview 2009 - 2nd try?

BIG TEN Preview 2009

NBA Draft - Cleaning House

Well, the draft hype has officially started as of last night. Woofies send Foye and Miller to WASH for basically the #5 pick. Lots of mixed reviews throughout the network about if this was the right move or not, but it's shaking things up and gives us unlimited options for tomorrow night...so i have to say I'm probably on board.

Foye wasn't bad, and I would have loved him as the instant offense 6th man on a competitor...especially with his level of play in Q4. But to label him as our starting 1 and expect him to handle that job was a joke. He's not a PG...he's a very short off-guard, that's it. I can't say that I like getting rid of him, but if it took this to make the deal then why not (assuming we don't completly F up tomorrow night, which I'm more positive about than I have been at any time the last 10 years).

Miller, we barely knew ya. He was so excited to be "home" for last year that he forgot how to shoot. He didn't have a good year, let's face it. PA brought up the point that he seems to be a guy who puts up numbers on bad teams at bad times...never a big game guy, never on a contender. I am 110% on board with this one - the guy was brought in to shoot the 3, but he couldn't shoot. So from my point of view, if you can parlay that into anything of value, then do it.

Now the biggest question, when you only have 2 actual players (Love, Al) and 4, yes 4! 1st round picks...what do you do?

Options:
1) Stand pat, pick 4 guys - find your new starting backcourt and some wings with a chance
This option seems very unlikely - you're not going to pay guaranteed money to 4 guys in one year...just doesn't happen.
2) Send one of the higher picks and one of the lower picks to move up and grab someone you love.
This seems the most likely. Personally, I would stay a long, long ways away from Mr. Thabeet...looks like a scary bust to me. Rubio, who knows? But it would create some excitement.
3) Send away some of the picks for proven players.
This is probably my preferred option. I know it's a rebuilding year, that's undeniable. However, you can't start a rookie backcourt with Al, Love, and Tree Rollins and expect to be an improving club...even for next year. They NEED to find 1-3 players that are vets and can help some of these young guys along. Hinrich is a nice fit, I havne't heard a lot of other names mentioned, but I think dumping some of the lower picks or some of our expiring players for next year would be a great move and probably a very possible move for some teams looking for $'s for 2010.

Who do you guys like for our picks?

It sounds like they love Tyreke Evans - I like what I've seen from him and would have no problem with this pick. I also think James Harden could be a solid scorer for a long time in the league. Thabeet scares the crap out of me - I can't see him being good. Rubio, might be exciting, I feel like I haven't seen enough to make a good call on this guy - but people really talk him up as a big-time playmaker. Johnny Flynn is a nice PG, I also kind of like Eric Mayor from VCU.

No matter how you slice it, we have 2 guys that will for sure be on this roster next year...Love and Big Al. So we need about 10 guys to fill in somewhere and find a couple of guards for the future, not to mention a true center or 2 to help on defense and some wing players with a pulse. Brewer could still turn out okay - Bassy will be back as a #2 PG, which isn't terrible. But off the top of my head, I really don't think I could come up with another for sure player on next year's team...Gomes maybe?

Anyway - should be a fun night, they only fun one we get each year when you suck like our club does! Hope you guys are watching - I'll be glued to it all night with the kids in the basement, talk to you as we go...I'm sure it will be controversial like it is every year (even without McHale running the show.)

Something to look forward to tomorrow for your reading pleasure...BIG 10 PREVIEW 2009 - hope there aren't a lot of Badger fans out there, cause it doesn't look good!

A couple other notes - start times announced for the pre-season games, SYR 11am ESPN2, CAL 11am ESPN/ESPN2, AF 6pm - knew this one. I love getting CAL in the early morning...9am internal clock for those fellas, could be our best chance of pulling the upset.

Closing it out with PJ -

I had a false belief
I thought I came here to stay
We're all just visiting
All just breaking like waves
The oceans made me, but who came up with love?
Push me, pull me, push me, or pull me out
Push me, pull me, or pull me out

SEC Preveiw 2009

It's mid-June, which means NCAA Previews galore. Well, no need to spend your $10, I've got everything you need right here. Over the next 11 weeks I will be previewing every D1 team and give you my power rating for them in 2009. We'll start with the best conference in football year in and year out...the hated SEC.

SEC EAST
#1 FLORIDA: 2009 PR 10.5
Why? Well, this is an easy one. Defending Nat'l Champs, returning the 2nd coming of Christ at QB, and bringing back you Top 22 on defense. They were +32 ptdf last year and +22 in TO...unreal. They do have a new OC, and the +22 will not happen again, so the offense will likely not average 45ppg again. But I think 40 is reasonable, every Tebow lead offense has done that. They have no less than 5 AA candidates and Top 5 talent everywhere on the field. Plus on of the best 2 coaches in football - Undefeated with only GEO coming within 2 TD's of them.

#2 GEORGIA: 2009 PR 8
Sleeper team this year - big-time. Only question is QB as Sr. Joe Cox appears to be the guy taking over for Stafford. They were only a +6 in ptdf LY, the lowest in Richt's tenure. The biggest problem was the defense that gave up 26ppg - but this was nearly all due to a couple of huge injuries. Top talent at all positions with the exception of QB, which is an unknown. This team had a PR 7 last year, but I'm calling for a full 1 pt gain for my PR. The defense will return to "A" level and give up less than 20 ppg, and the offense - despite the skill player losses and QB swap, will not miss a beat. 5 returning OL help keep the offense steady and GEO is a clear #2 in the East with 3 losses or less.

#3 TENNESSEE: 2009 PR 6.5
Lane Kiffin takes over for a team that really struggled last year. Even with their struggles, they came in at a PR 6 in 2008. Their average was 17-17 last year for a 0 ptdf. This will not be the case in 2009. Great OL and great D all around will lead this team back to a bowl game. Chaney from Purdue will take over the offense and Lane's daddy will take on the defense. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the number might fall a bit, bit it will still be respectable (~22). One offense, a great OL and returning QB will lead the way. I think ptdf will come in around 0 or low single digits, but that will be enough to go 8-4 and another bowl game.

#4 SOUTH CAROLINA: 2009 PR 6
SC continues to toil right around .500 for the majority of the Spurrier run. I think they'll stay there this year as well. They were a +2 ptdf in 2008 with a -9 in TO. So those numbers would suggest a possible improvement, but another new QB (can't be any worse) and an average OL (by SEC standards) will keep the offense sputtering. The defense is still top notch and will hold opponents to 20 ppg or less once again. The TO issues will likely still exist with the avg OL and QB, and the schedule does them no favors...I see 6 wins max, but possibly as few as 4.

#5 VANDY: 2009 PR 5.5
The little engine that could got off to a hot start last year before barely becoming bowl eligible. The funny thing with this team is that their numbers really didn't improve much at all yoy, so yes, it was just a fluke and luck. LB is their only standout position and they have an AA candidate at CB...but very offensively challenged. 5 OL return, but a new Sophomore takes over at QB. TO were positive for the first time in 5 years in 2008, not likely to continue to 2009. All of the front 7 also return, so I'm going to say they will be more talented and less lucky and end right about the same place as last year..5 or 6 wins.

#6 UK: 2009 PR 5
A surprising bowl team LY at 6-6, I don't see it happening again. Defense was off the charts LY only allowing 22 ppg, vs. the 30 ppg they had allowed the previous 3 years. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the defense reverts back to normal in 2009. Offensively, they weren't good LY. 22 ppg doesn't get it done. They return a QB, who is average, and 3 OL. I'll call for it to be the same...which means a downturn for the Cats this year - 4 wins.

SEC WEST

#1 OLE MISS: 2009 PR 8.5
This club looks to be a contender this year - I know MK doesn't think so, but here's why they will win the West. Won 8 last year at 31-18 ppg. They return a nice QB in Snead and 3 OL...so the offense should be stable. Also year 2 of Nutt's system will only help things along. The defense returns 5 of the front 7 and has talented groups everywhere. Plus the schedule is easy, so I'm calling for slight improvements on both sides of the ball and and undefeated regular season...yep, you heard me. This isn't likely, but it's what my ratings are calling for. Find a loss - ALA and LSU are toughest opponents, but both are at home.

#2 ALABAMA: 2009 PR 7.5
A surprise team in 2008, I think they take a minor step back this year. They went 12-0 in the regular season at 31-13 ppg. Offensively, they will take a hit this year. A new QB, McElroy will be a downgrade from JPW. OL only returns 2 starters and is not an elite unit in 2009. This puts the offense from 31 to about 24...I think it falls off that much with ?'s at both major offensive areas. The defense is a different story. 13 ppg should be the number again for 2009 - 6 of the front 7 are back and this might be the best D in the nation. The schedule is weak once again, so I am calling for only 1 or 2 losses and another successful year for the Tide.

#3 LSU: 2009 PR 7
Really rough year in 2008 for the Tigers. 7-5 with a 30-26 ppg rate. Offensively, I think they will be the same or possibly a little better than 2008. Jefferson looks to be the QB, this was a giant problem in 2008. 3 OL return, and this is a very strong unit. 4 of the front 7 are back, but only 1 DL...however, both of these areas should be strengths because this is LSU and defense is king. 26 ppg in 2008 was a shock, and I think they drop back to the usual 20 ppg range of the elite defenses. Why? A new DC...Pelini's co-replacements last year were atrocious, so they brought in Chavis from TEN who is an outstanding DC...this unit will go back to allowing 19-20 ppg in 2009. They could challenge ALA for #2 in the division, but I will call for 4 losses because the schedule is brutal.

#4 ARKANSAS: 2009 PR 6.5
I am not a Petrino fan, but he will figure things out in Wal-Mart country. They played much better at the end of last year, and they have a better team in 2009. A new QB is coming, MICH transfer Ryan Mallet should be perfect for this system. The offense will blow away the 22 ppg they had LY. 3 OL return to an average unit, but they were also -9 TO last year, so I think the offense goes to 28 ppg in 2009. The defense returns the entire front 7 - not elite for talent, but 7 returning starters counts for something. I think they improve to mediocrity at least, which puts them at a +2 and a 1.5 point improvement in my PR #'s. 7-5 and a bowl game is the call for ARK.

#5 AUBURN: 2009 PR 6
Mean Gene Chizik is taking over this storied progrum in 2009. Is this a good thing? I don't see the track record, but I guess AUB did. 5-7 in 2008 with a 17-18 ppg...yuck. Jr. Kodi Burns returns at QB, probably - the offense can not be any worse, so I'll call for a little improvement. 3 OL return, but nothing special. Why should the offense improve...one reason, Gus Malzahn. The former Tulsa OC will make this team score points - the Jimbo Fisher effect of last season where he single-handedly added a TD/gm to FSU's total. Teddy Roof takes over the D, but that is Chizik's specialty as well, so look for that to remain very strong. I say they'll move to a +3 ptdf, but the schedule is tough so I'm expecting another 5-7 campaign and the hot seat for Mean Gene will start in about week 6!

#6 MISSISSIPPI STATE: 2009 PR 5
The cellar dweller once again in the West. New coach Dan Mullen (FLA OC in 2008) will have his hands full. 4-8 in 2008 with a 15-25 ppg is not a nice spot to be in the SEC. Mullen is an offense guy, so 15 ppg should not be the final tally in 2009. But I'm not convinced they can get to 20 ppg in year 1 against these defenses! Lee is a Sr. returning at QB and 3 OL return, but a new system will be implemented and it should be ugly. 3 of the front 7 return on D - DL should be very weak. LB has talent, but with no DL it might not matter. He brought in a pair of old A&M coordinators to run each side of the ball...not sure on those hires. I'll say they stay the same as LY at a 5 PR...which sadly looks like only 3 wins.

There you go - one down, next song. What do you think? FLA-OLE MISS title game? Both undefeated?

The conference as a whole is better this year, but some of the traditional powers will not be back to elite quite yet. Bottom line...GATORS - in a landslide, to win the conference.

Next time...the BIG TEN - will I go homer and love up the Maroon and Gold?

Later.

How to bet on NCAA Football Games...correctly: VOL 1

Wow, 5 months in the making and now I have to put this whole thing to paper or computer or whatever. I'll try to be succinct, organized, and helpful...but some or most of you may not care. I'm trying to share what I learned over the last 5 months to help us all - take it for what it's worth.

First - why am I doing this? It should be fairly obvious...on our front page I have last year's standings...118-137 last year 46%...yep, not a winner. Even our champion Mr. Roe only went 132-123 for 51%...not a winner in Vegas, but a winner with us. So I sat down and said, how can a guy improve on this and avoid those painstaking decisions every week that I undoubtably second and third and fourth guess myself on until finally submitting a pick. Well, one thing I was going with is my Thursday night rule...bet the home team - it's f*cking simple, just pick the home team no matter what - especially an underdog. I wanted to find more rules like this so my picks could be more accurate and I could win more and have something to show for the ridiculous amount of time I put into this great sport each week. So without further adieu, here we go:

1. I started by taking every game from last year and figuring out if maybe it actually as simple as "bet the home team"...it's not.

Home-Road, FAV-DOG both ended at nearly 50/50 splits for the year, so if you're happy with 50%, then read no further and just pick one way to go and follow it religiously. But I'm shooting for 75%, so I moved on to some more analysis.

2. I made a list of rules, I figured by looking at the schedules and results from last year I should be able to come to some conclusions - listed below:

• Rule 1 - Bet home team on Thursday night: 14-4 in 2008, road FAV never covered
• Rule 2 - Rivalry Games - pick the DOG, unless it is a HUGE mismatch (OSU-MICH 08)
• Rule 3 - Coach Situations - 1st year guys struggle in the first 4-6 games, exiting coaches or presumed to be exiting coaches typically cover at the end of the season
• Rule 4 - Opening Weekend - bet against the big off-season hype team in the year's 1st big game (ALA over CLEM, USC over AUB a few years back...)
• Rule 5 - BCS Busters - Identify these teams early and bet them ever week(Boise, TCU, Utah, Ball St. in 2008 went 37-12 ATS (against the spread)
• Rule 6 - Team Expectations/Tradition - Bet against traditonal powers having a down year (AUB 2008), bet against extremely bad BCS teams (WASH, WASU: 5-19 ATS), bet for Nat'l title contenders (FLA, OK, PSU, TEX, ALA: 50-12 ATS)
• Rule 7 - Conference Games - in a parody conference (ACC in 2008) always take the points if it's >7
• Rule 8 - Let down Rule - after a Major BCS team's first loss of the season or loss in a big game they will have another non-cover soon after especially on the road
• Rule 9 - Power Rating Rule - this is the final rule, and it's when I realized where I needed to spend my time throughout the season...using my power rankings at the end of the season I would have hit 78% if I had used them for every game at the start of the year...so nailing these at the beginning of the season is the key and just do some minor tweaking throughout the season.

What are my power ratings, you may ask? Well, I assign each of the 120 teams a ranking 1-12 at the beginning of the year and use this to determine what I think the spread would/should be for every game throughout the year. 1 full point = a TD, 1/2 a point = a FG (3.5 to be exact). For example...MN is a 6.5 at WIS who was a 7...plus adding in an extra 1/2 point for the home team I have the line at WIS -7...actual line was WIS -13.5, so I pick the Gophers and make cash.

So my next question is how can I make the power ratings more accurate and what drives them? Well, this is where I had to dig in and find some key indicators to figure out why these ratings would change and how to predict them. I found a very telling correlation between point differential and power rating...like almost a 95% correlation - so that was it, point differential - figure out where that will be and we should know how a team will perform.

This was challenging simply because there are so many moving parts to these numbers. But I narrowed it down to a few keys indicators for overall performance, offense, and defense.

OVERALL

• Turnovers - impossible to predict, but it can help you gauge if a team was lucky or unlucky last year based on how this net # turned out. For example - MN was a -15 in 2007, obviously you have to think that will turn around and they ended up being a +12 in 2008...and their point differential went from -11 to even...a 1.5 point swing in the power ratings.
• Is there room to improve? An offense that averages 35+ is at the peak and really, no matter what, shouldn't expect to improve and therefore their offense could only be worse the upcoming year. Same goes for a defense that gives up 20 or less.

OFFENSE

• QB - obviously a huge component - returning starter is good, upperclassman is good - conversely starting a freshman is bad, or a first time starter is bad...remember these are just generalizations and all factors work together toward the overall pt. diff change.
• OL Returning - how many starters are back? this is huge.
• New OC/HC within the last 3 years - can have a huge impact on which direction the pts. scored goes for a team based on scheme and coaching acumen

DEFENSE

• DL/LB returning - DL is most important, but overall front 7 is also an indicator
• New HC/DC last 3 years - same as above, can completely change a team's performance

One other over arching note is strength of schedule - this doesn't have much of an impact as some people think, but it can add an extra W or L is your schedule changes drastically from year to year.

Now when looking at these numbers obviously it's impossible to say, "new OC, they should score an extra 1 point per game." What I am looking for is the large measureable changes...7+ points one way or another. In 2008, this amounted to about 30 teams getting a drastically worse offense and 30 being drastically better. Defensively, there were less changes, only about 20 increases and 10-15 decreases.

Here are some examples to explain what I'm talking about:

AUBURN was a 6.5 in 2007, starting a 1st year Soph QB in 08 = BAD, 5 OL coming back = good, brand new OC with new scheme = BAD, 5 of front 7 back on D = good, new DC = not sure. So with the new QB and new scheme, the offense dropped 7 points from 2007 and the defense was the same....AUB 2008 rating was a 5.5, one full point below.

Obviously, this doesn't work out beautifully for every team, there is some subjective work that goes on, but that's what makes it fun. For example - USC

2007 - rated an 8 at 11-2, +17 in points (33-16) - brought back a new starter at QB (Jr) = bad?, 1 OL returning = bad, 4 of front 7 back = indifferent, no new coaching = good. So with all of this, you'd think the offense would maybe drop off a bit and the defense would hold. What happened? Offense added an extra 5 ppg, defense allowed 8 fewer ppg for a +13, but I actually had them ranked as an 11 for 2008. Some teams just have so much talent that they can overcome the lack of experience in some situations - this is one of those exceptions.

WV, as another example, was an 8.5 in 2007 (40-18) +13 in TO, returning Sr at QB, 5 OL back, 4 of front 7 back, but a brand new coach and OC. They dropped to a 7 in 2008 and pt.diff went to a +8 instead of a +22. Really the only change was the offense was 16 ppg worse...but why? Great QB, 5 OL back, but they have a new coach who is not good...so we have to apply weights to the different factors if they have this kind of impact. These weights can very for each situation, and I don't actually compute them but I do try to walk through them in my head when coming up with the final rating.

Also - these ratings can change throughout the year with QB injuries/changes. Or any OL/DL injuries. Other than that they should stay pretty stable.

Confused yet? Well, I just felt that I had to share this background for how I will be rating out each team coming into the 2009 season before I shared the team previews in the upcoming summer weeks. For a final reference, here's a look at how the B10 ratred out in 2008, and how what kind of record I would have had betting on them with these ratings throughout the year:

• ILL - 6.5 (9-2)
• IND - 4.5 (9-2)
• IOWA - 8 (7-4) - they got much better as the year went on, so I try to get the most accurate based upon the end of the year
• MICH - 4.5 (10-2)
• MSU - 7 (11-1)
• MN - 6.5 (9-2)
• NW - 7.5 (7-4)
• OSU - 9 (9-2)
• PSU - 9.5 (9-2)
• PUR - 6 (9-2)
• WIS - 7 (9-2)

That's a 98-25 record, or cut in half since most of these games were against each other 49-13 or 79%...that's how you make money and that's what I'm shooting for.

So, now you know. You might be asking yourself, what exactly do I know?

1. Tree has devoted way too much of his time to this.
2. There is a way to win at betting on NCAA football without being lucky
3. All of my secrets for how I will be building my bankroll this year
4. I will be doing all of this work and providing guidance throughout the year, but I did finish in last place in 2008 so do you listen or continue to go with your gut?
5. Season previews starting with the SEC coming soon.

Longest post ever. Hopefully you find some time on Friday when there is nothing else going on and you get a chance to read it. Happy weekend - I'll see a lot of you at JG's on Saturday, so until then....some intense PJ (SAVE YOU), which might be me Saturday night when JG tries to get me to leave!

Gonna save you fucker,....not gonna lose you

Feeling cocky and strong,.. can't let you go,...

Too important to me

Too important to us,... we'd be lost without you

Baby, let yourself fall,... I'm right below you now

And fuck me if I say something you don't wanna hear

And fuck if you only hear what you wanna hear

Fuck me if I care,... but I'm not leaving here

Tuesday Thoughts

Hey Guys - two days in a row with updates, wow I must be getting less busy all of a sudden...or maybe it's just that we're getting close to that magical time of the year - College Football Preview Magazine time!! woo-hoo!!

Not sure what the rest of you do, but I have been committed to one preview magazine for the last 4-5 years...and for my money it blows away everything else. Phil Steele's College Football Preview provides the most detailed teams previews, complete betting information, history, and accurate predictions. I think it comes out on June 9th - grab a copy if you care. I also take a lot of my information from there and use some of his ideas to develop my own set of predictors etc. If you're into the betting side of it, and I think all of us are, this is the one you want.

Anyway, onto the notes from the last few days that I thought were interesting:

Jonathan Crompton, TN QB from last year, is now coming out saying that he was receiving death threats throughout the difficult season in 2008. He never said anything because he just assumed it was part of the gig as the Vols QB. Wow - I wish people in MN took their college football this seriously...maybe not THAT seriously, but definitely cared more than they appear to right now.

Iowa had a pair of brothers on the squad last year Shaun and Shane Prater. Well, these guys have had quite an eventful summer (BTW, isn't it nice to have Hawkeyes in the news all the time and not a single Gopher incident for quite a while?). Shaun was arrested for DUI and made a convincing argument that the bartender must have been sneaking alcohol into his cokes without him knowing...that Iowa education starting to kick in early for this fella. Well, his brother appears to be of lesser or equal intelligence. He had the choice to take a 3-week summer school course and be eligible for next year or transfer out and go to a JUCO. So instead of suiting up for a B10 team he chose Iowa Western to "get his GPA back up". But my favorite quote of all:

“With the party life, football and all kinds of stuff going on, it was kid of hard to cope with,” Prater said. Dude! You're in Iowa City! Besides football, what the hell else could possibly be going on! He went from an honor roll student in HS to flunking out as a Freshman in college. Another great story from Cap. Kirk and his cast of characters. Keep the defections coming Hogeyes!

On the other border - our Becky friends are experiencing some problems with their "devoted" fan base. Season ticket sales are dropping quite a bit, and Bulemia is on a very hot seat right now. I think as true Gopher fans we need to do all we can to keep Big Bret in his chair as Becky's head man, so I am proposing a season ticket buy for anyone that wants to keep the pendulam swinging toward our favor in this series for the next 10 years. I think Alvarez is a sharp guy, and he will likely soon realize the mistake he made and stop the trend dead in its tracks...but until then, let's make sure they continue to get buried farther and farther down in the standings before the new leader takes over.

Now for a little insight on our beloved Gophers - philsteele.com has posted some early charts and figures around some leading indicators for success in 2009...here's how our guys rank out nationally:

OL career starts returning - 8th in nation, 1st in B10
Total experience returning - 28th in nation
% of lettermn returning - 8th in nation
% yards returning - 8th in nation
% tackles returning - 20th in nation

These are all very good indicators that we could be in for an improvement in 2009. We do appear to have the toughest schedule in the league this year, so that might temper enthusiasm a little bit.

I read a quick preview from an AF site about the opener on Sept.12 at TCF - he, of course, is picking the Falcons to spoil our opener, but his reasoning is comical and makes his prediction pretty much worthless. I can't find the exact quotes, but it went something like this:

MN lost a lot of skill position players that will be tought to replace, and their defense also lost lots of playmakers. They will be in a rebuilding year and AF should win.

Hmmmm....the skill players we lost were, um..., Jack Simmons? And defensively we lost Hightower and probably Brock I guess. Yep - this guy is right on - WE HAVE NO CHANCE.

That's all I got.

Anyone catch PJ on Conan last night? I tried, but passed out about half way through the Ferrell interview. Here's the clip if you're a fanatic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHTvoOdC9I8

Weekend Notes

The weekend is over, as is the dream for your Gopher baseball squad. LSU is good, we made a nice comeback to get into the final, but it wasn't meant to be once again. But there were some fun thing that happened over the weekend.

Jim Tressel and his club were embarassed 24-6 against GEO and 37-6 vs. Bobby Bowden and the Noles yesterday. Wait...it's June...this isn't football. Yep - that was THE Ohio State baseball club giving up 37 to FSU yesterday...somewhere I know Mr. Kobow is smiling and laughing hysterically right now. He's a closet OSU fan, but he pretends to hate them.

I was reading CFN this morning and they posed this question...which current coach do you pick if you had to win one game? The sharp guys threw out the obvious names...Meyer, Carroll, even Tressell. Then we get down to Jim who runs a site called Hawkeyenation.com - who do you think this d-bag selects out of all the coaches in the country?

"Well, with talent being equal I'd take Kirk Ferentz - he's done more with less talent than anyone." Are you kidding me? I'll give it to you that the guy can coach, but out of anyone in the country to win one game you pick Mr. Ferentz from Iowa?!?! Ok. Not Urban Meyer who has won 2 Nat'l Titles in 3 years - not Pete Carroll who has won the P10 10 years in a row and is the BEST big game coach around. I can't believe CFN would include this douche in their roundtable when it's quite obvious that he, like all Iowa backers, is too much of a homer to make any logical conclusions. This guy should be removed immediately and replaced with James from MN, who would have easily answered this one with the correct answer...Pete Carroll.

Listening to PA this morning...Cheech Harvin will win ROY. God - this guy gets a little old with his Viking blabber sometimes. Seriously, he's gone through one minicamp and he's ROY now?!? I hope he does well too, and I do cheer for the Purple - but come on PA. Picking Harvin as ROY is basically saying he will have Moss-like impact, which I just can't see happening. It almost always goes to a RB/QB depending on who gets a chance. WR's just don't win this award very often - and I definitely couldn't predict Harvin as the winner after one mini-camp, injury concerns, and weed issues.

Did you know Colt McCoy completed 78% of his passes last season? Do you realize how ridiculous that is. I haven't come up with any official predictions yet, but he's my Heisman lean right now just because Bradford and Tebow will not win 2, so he's the last of the current Big 3 to get one.

Since we started with Gopher Baseball, we will also close with a tidbit I found out recently. My old roomie David Roach, who I think many of you knew during college, is not an accountant anymore. Roach went back to FLA and according to my mom (probably over-hyped by her and Sally Roach) but he is Asst. AD at USF. Yes - that USF, the D1 program. If it's true, nice work. Just a little known fact that I thought was relevent to a College football blog. So when we're cheering for or against USF this year depending on where your money lies, remember Mr. Roach and blame him for what happens.

I will be posting my much anticipated "HOW TO BET ON NCAA FOOTBALL" post this week. It might be multiple parts - and it may be a little lengthy...but it's 5 months in the making.

Other than that, I'm actually working all week and getting ready to raid the big city of Rochester this weekend. JG - the Roe's and Rollins' are coming sans children - it could be ugly. See you then!

One other quick note - VEGAS 2009 is starting to be top of mind for me. I looked at current pricing for the same package we went with last year, and it's looking cheaper, by about $100/guy right now. I'm thinking it should hold close to that - but I might think about locking in early so let's start discussing it this weekend.

Later.