SEC Preveiw 2009

It's mid-June, which means NCAA Previews galore. Well, no need to spend your $10, I've got everything you need right here. Over the next 11 weeks I will be previewing every D1 team and give you my power rating for them in 2009. We'll start with the best conference in football year in and year out...the hated SEC.

SEC EAST
#1 FLORIDA: 2009 PR 10.5
Why? Well, this is an easy one. Defending Nat'l Champs, returning the 2nd coming of Christ at QB, and bringing back you Top 22 on defense. They were +32 ptdf last year and +22 in TO...unreal. They do have a new OC, and the +22 will not happen again, so the offense will likely not average 45ppg again. But I think 40 is reasonable, every Tebow lead offense has done that. They have no less than 5 AA candidates and Top 5 talent everywhere on the field. Plus on of the best 2 coaches in football - Undefeated with only GEO coming within 2 TD's of them.

#2 GEORGIA: 2009 PR 8
Sleeper team this year - big-time. Only question is QB as Sr. Joe Cox appears to be the guy taking over for Stafford. They were only a +6 in ptdf LY, the lowest in Richt's tenure. The biggest problem was the defense that gave up 26ppg - but this was nearly all due to a couple of huge injuries. Top talent at all positions with the exception of QB, which is an unknown. This team had a PR 7 last year, but I'm calling for a full 1 pt gain for my PR. The defense will return to "A" level and give up less than 20 ppg, and the offense - despite the skill player losses and QB swap, will not miss a beat. 5 returning OL help keep the offense steady and GEO is a clear #2 in the East with 3 losses or less.

#3 TENNESSEE: 2009 PR 6.5
Lane Kiffin takes over for a team that really struggled last year. Even with their struggles, they came in at a PR 6 in 2008. Their average was 17-17 last year for a 0 ptdf. This will not be the case in 2009. Great OL and great D all around will lead this team back to a bowl game. Chaney from Purdue will take over the offense and Lane's daddy will take on the defense. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the number might fall a bit, bit it will still be respectable (~22). One offense, a great OL and returning QB will lead the way. I think ptdf will come in around 0 or low single digits, but that will be enough to go 8-4 and another bowl game.

#4 SOUTH CAROLINA: 2009 PR 6
SC continues to toil right around .500 for the majority of the Spurrier run. I think they'll stay there this year as well. They were a +2 ptdf in 2008 with a -9 in TO. So those numbers would suggest a possible improvement, but another new QB (can't be any worse) and an average OL (by SEC standards) will keep the offense sputtering. The defense is still top notch and will hold opponents to 20 ppg or less once again. The TO issues will likely still exist with the avg OL and QB, and the schedule does them no favors...I see 6 wins max, but possibly as few as 4.

#5 VANDY: 2009 PR 5.5
The little engine that could got off to a hot start last year before barely becoming bowl eligible. The funny thing with this team is that their numbers really didn't improve much at all yoy, so yes, it was just a fluke and luck. LB is their only standout position and they have an AA candidate at CB...but very offensively challenged. 5 OL return, but a new Sophomore takes over at QB. TO were positive for the first time in 5 years in 2008, not likely to continue to 2009. All of the front 7 also return, so I'm going to say they will be more talented and less lucky and end right about the same place as last year..5 or 6 wins.

#6 UK: 2009 PR 5
A surprising bowl team LY at 6-6, I don't see it happening again. Defense was off the charts LY only allowing 22 ppg, vs. the 30 ppg they had allowed the previous 3 years. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the defense reverts back to normal in 2009. Offensively, they weren't good LY. 22 ppg doesn't get it done. They return a QB, who is average, and 3 OL. I'll call for it to be the same...which means a downturn for the Cats this year - 4 wins.

SEC WEST

#1 OLE MISS: 2009 PR 8.5
This club looks to be a contender this year - I know MK doesn't think so, but here's why they will win the West. Won 8 last year at 31-18 ppg. They return a nice QB in Snead and 3 OL...so the offense should be stable. Also year 2 of Nutt's system will only help things along. The defense returns 5 of the front 7 and has talented groups everywhere. Plus the schedule is easy, so I'm calling for slight improvements on both sides of the ball and and undefeated regular season...yep, you heard me. This isn't likely, but it's what my ratings are calling for. Find a loss - ALA and LSU are toughest opponents, but both are at home.

#2 ALABAMA: 2009 PR 7.5
A surprise team in 2008, I think they take a minor step back this year. They went 12-0 in the regular season at 31-13 ppg. Offensively, they will take a hit this year. A new QB, McElroy will be a downgrade from JPW. OL only returns 2 starters and is not an elite unit in 2009. This puts the offense from 31 to about 24...I think it falls off that much with ?'s at both major offensive areas. The defense is a different story. 13 ppg should be the number again for 2009 - 6 of the front 7 are back and this might be the best D in the nation. The schedule is weak once again, so I am calling for only 1 or 2 losses and another successful year for the Tide.

#3 LSU: 2009 PR 7
Really rough year in 2008 for the Tigers. 7-5 with a 30-26 ppg rate. Offensively, I think they will be the same or possibly a little better than 2008. Jefferson looks to be the QB, this was a giant problem in 2008. 3 OL return, and this is a very strong unit. 4 of the front 7 are back, but only 1 DL...however, both of these areas should be strengths because this is LSU and defense is king. 26 ppg in 2008 was a shock, and I think they drop back to the usual 20 ppg range of the elite defenses. Why? A new DC...Pelini's co-replacements last year were atrocious, so they brought in Chavis from TEN who is an outstanding DC...this unit will go back to allowing 19-20 ppg in 2009. They could challenge ALA for #2 in the division, but I will call for 4 losses because the schedule is brutal.

#4 ARKANSAS: 2009 PR 6.5
I am not a Petrino fan, but he will figure things out in Wal-Mart country. They played much better at the end of last year, and they have a better team in 2009. A new QB is coming, MICH transfer Ryan Mallet should be perfect for this system. The offense will blow away the 22 ppg they had LY. 3 OL return to an average unit, but they were also -9 TO last year, so I think the offense goes to 28 ppg in 2009. The defense returns the entire front 7 - not elite for talent, but 7 returning starters counts for something. I think they improve to mediocrity at least, which puts them at a +2 and a 1.5 point improvement in my PR #'s. 7-5 and a bowl game is the call for ARK.

#5 AUBURN: 2009 PR 6
Mean Gene Chizik is taking over this storied progrum in 2009. Is this a good thing? I don't see the track record, but I guess AUB did. 5-7 in 2008 with a 17-18 ppg...yuck. Jr. Kodi Burns returns at QB, probably - the offense can not be any worse, so I'll call for a little improvement. 3 OL return, but nothing special. Why should the offense improve...one reason, Gus Malzahn. The former Tulsa OC will make this team score points - the Jimbo Fisher effect of last season where he single-handedly added a TD/gm to FSU's total. Teddy Roof takes over the D, but that is Chizik's specialty as well, so look for that to remain very strong. I say they'll move to a +3 ptdf, but the schedule is tough so I'm expecting another 5-7 campaign and the hot seat for Mean Gene will start in about week 6!

#6 MISSISSIPPI STATE: 2009 PR 5
The cellar dweller once again in the West. New coach Dan Mullen (FLA OC in 2008) will have his hands full. 4-8 in 2008 with a 15-25 ppg is not a nice spot to be in the SEC. Mullen is an offense guy, so 15 ppg should not be the final tally in 2009. But I'm not convinced they can get to 20 ppg in year 1 against these defenses! Lee is a Sr. returning at QB and 3 OL return, but a new system will be implemented and it should be ugly. 3 of the front 7 return on D - DL should be very weak. LB has talent, but with no DL it might not matter. He brought in a pair of old A&M coordinators to run each side of the ball...not sure on those hires. I'll say they stay the same as LY at a 5 PR...which sadly looks like only 3 wins.

There you go - one down, next song. What do you think? FLA-OLE MISS title game? Both undefeated?

The conference as a whole is better this year, but some of the traditional powers will not be back to elite quite yet. Bottom line...GATORS - in a landslide, to win the conference.

Next time...the BIG TEN - will I go homer and love up the Maroon and Gold?

Later.