Time to get excited...CUSA football preview week!
I won't go into nearly the detail I had before for the BCS conferences, but I think it's good to have a clue about what is going on in the smaller conferences. These actually have some of the best betting lines you're going to find - if you can get to know a MAC, CUSA, SBC type conference really well it can give you a solid 2-3 games a week that are very predicatable.
CUSA WEST
#1 UTEP - PR 6
I see 9-3 and a CUSA title game in the future for Mike Price. This teams scores a lot of points, and has seen very little turnover since last year.
#2 TULSA - PR 5.5
Very strong last season, but they only return 2 OL, a new QB, and only 1 back on the DL. The biggest blow may be replacing Gus Malzahn as OC...so they will be defintiely worse, but still a respectable progrum. 7-5.
#3 SMU - PR 5.5
This is the same team that went 1-11 in 2008, but they will be much improved in June Jones year 2. A returning QB and experienced OL will add at least a TD per game to the 21 ppg they scored last season. I think they have at least 6 wins on the slate...I'll go pessimistic and say 6-6.
#4 HOUSTON - PR 5
I like this team. They scored 41 ppg last year and lead the nation in yardage. Sumlin is back for his 2nd year as coach - lots of offense returns...but the schedule is BRUTAL. OKST, TT, at MISS ST, SOMISS...all games that they probably can't win. Most of the tough conference games are on the road as well...6-6.
#5 RICE - PR 3.5
Totally new offense from last year's 9-3 record setting offense = major downturn. I think the offense falls off the table from the 42 ppg of 2008, which will crush the Owls this year. They were also a +13 in TO...another bad omen for 2009. 2-10.
#6 TULANE - PR 3.5
They will suck again and they play at RICE. Bob Toledo's 3rd and possibly final year will be very similar to 2008. The offense is way below average and the defense is also brutal...not a good combo. 1-11.
CUSA EAST
#1 SOMISS - PR 6.5
This squad really impressed me last year in the bowl game. Fedora, the head coach, provides a lot fire and it's a fun group to watch play. They also have a ton of talent returning including a rock star OL and all 4 DL. They have a star in WR DeAndre Brown - but not sure on his availability after an ugly leg injury in the bowl game. Especially if Brown is healthy, we have a potential BCS buster on our hands...9-3.
#2 EAST CAROLINA - PR 6
The early season shocker of 2008, this club should be good again in 2009. They return a Sr. QB and 5 OL...so the offense should improve on the 24 ppg of 2008. The D will also remain solid - but the schedule is tough. WV, NC, VT are all non-conference losses - which pushes the overall to about 7-5.
#3 UCF - PR 5.5
George O'Leary had a rare down year in 2008. I think they bounce back and play much better in 2009. Return nearly the entire defense, and have some experience at QB and OL = big offensive improvements. They also bring in a new OC from he CFL - should be interesting. 7-5
#4 MARSHALL - PR 5.5
Another team looking for a bounceback. Lots of experiecne once again and a solid coaching staff. Bowl potential at 6-6.
#5 MEMPHIS - PR 4.5
This isn't a very good club. I actually watched a MEM-UAB game in its entirety last season on CBS College Sports network on a Thursday night. That might have something to do with me ranking them #5 and #6 in this division...brutal. 1 OL is back, 1 DL is back...that spells disaster....2-10.
#6 UAB - PR 4.5
Actually a better story to tell than MEM, but the scheulde is tougher and they play at MEM. 5 OL are back, a Sr QB, 5/7 on D...all good things. But even with the returners on D, it should still be the worst in the league, which keeps them in the cellar at 2-10.
SOMISS - UTEP CUSA Title Game
I've kind of got a thing for SOMISS - I love their style, their uniforms, well....I guess I just think they are the best thing going in this conference. If Brown is healthy, like I mentioned above, this will be a team on the BCS cusp if things fall right.
There we go - one small conference down and the MAC, MWC, WAC, SBC, and Independents to go. I'll fire these out in rapid fire fashion over the next couple of weeks.
I really don't want to talk about the Favre thing, because I'm super burned out on the whole deal. Whatever, I'm just happy for the tards that went about bought their #4 purple jerseys...I guess you can always put BOOTY on the back. I can't wait for another 10-6 round one loss season...(yawn).
PJ - Last Exit
let the sun shine, burn 'way my mask
three days, and maybe longer
won't ever find me here
let the ocean dissolve 'way my past
four days, and not much longer...let my spirit pass...
this is, this is...this is, this is...this is, this is...
my...last exit
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Monday, July 27, 2009
CFN Predictions
Well, another source of knowledge has posted their predictions on the B10 for 2009. I'll end the suspense by telling you they list our Gophers at 6-6. This should be pretty close, I think they will be right around that +/- 2 games either way.
They had Ohio State as the champs at 10-2, but the mighty Illini came in at #2 also at 10-2 (with one of their predicted losses coming at the hands of Brew & Co.)
CFN also crushed the Hawkeye dreams by predicting an 8-4 season, 1-4 on the road with the only win coming at the 'Clones...which is always pesky.
Those are the highlights, somehow they think WIS is looking at 8 wins again. The schedule is weak, but this is not a good team.
In other news, I've expanded my technological horizons. As you may have seen if you've visited the blog home page lately, I am tweeting. Not really anything yet, but I think it could be fun. Bottom line, I checked out facebook, I know a lot of you guys do this, but I don't think it's for me. So I chose Twitter as a free, simple form of quick communication. I like following some people on there - the real time short bits are good when informative. Brewster sets records for number of exclamation points used in each tweet!!!! So, I think you guys should jump on board - it would/will be a quick way to interact through your phone with the entire group during the fun Saturdays and Sundays in the fall. Dropping quick one liners that I used to have to text or make a 9 second phone call for will be shifted to this medium. I can envision such critical things as, "who hates iowa?!?" and "bring in Gray!" but hopefully it will be used for meaningful things as well. We'll see, but I guess it's no good unless a lot of other people (you guys) get on board. So it's up to you, let me know what you think. If you can text, you can do Twitter on your phone...let's try it.
One other interesting note on technology - I figured out how I can post to the blog with my phone. This will create some interesting game days at TCF w/writings and pictures on a stream-of-consciouness kind of way...good stuff.
Next, I'm thinking of changing the name of the blog after seeing the World Futbol Challenge across the bottom line this weekend. I don't want to be confused with a Soccer tournament...I'm open to suggestions.
I did lots of small conference studying this weekend - so be prepared for some interesting preveiws coming this week on the tiny little brother conferences. Also, with Vikes camp opening this week the NFL has finally reached my radar, so I'll throw up some division predictions coming up soon and hope for you guys to do the same if you'd like.
Finally, it's B10 media day. Highlights:
- Bielema says that Madison is the toughest place to play in the B10...hmmm, 48-7 vs. PSU last year...didn't look too tough. Cal-Poly and the Gophs almost pulled off wins 2 weeks in a row last year...time to look again Bielema. On that note - I found a "home-field advantage" chart that covers the last 10 years. Gophers have won 62.1% of their home games in that span. WIS is at 74.2% (worse than MICH 78.7%, OHIOST 87.1%, IOWA 77.6%, PSU 75.4%). #1 on the list...BOISE at 96.6%, wow. Georgia is actually a better road team than home team.
- Brew says he's in favor of a championship game and longer season (playing into DEC)...I agree, it gets brought up every year, and every year the B10 sucks in the bowl games...correlation?
- Zook wants to play NW at Wrigley...not sure how that would st up for football, but I like the idea.
That's about it for now. I need to wrap up the small conference previews and get those posted because we are dangerously close to our 4 week countdown before actual games will be played and counted!! Woo-hoo!
PJ - No Way (sign up for Twitter! Follow gophertree)
Here's a token of my openness
Of my need to not disappear
How I'm feeling, so revealing to me
I found my mind too clear
I just need someone to be there for.. me
I just want someone to be there for.. me
They had Ohio State as the champs at 10-2, but the mighty Illini came in at #2 also at 10-2 (with one of their predicted losses coming at the hands of Brew & Co.)
CFN also crushed the Hawkeye dreams by predicting an 8-4 season, 1-4 on the road with the only win coming at the 'Clones...which is always pesky.
Those are the highlights, somehow they think WIS is looking at 8 wins again. The schedule is weak, but this is not a good team.
In other news, I've expanded my technological horizons. As you may have seen if you've visited the blog home page lately, I am tweeting. Not really anything yet, but I think it could be fun. Bottom line, I checked out facebook, I know a lot of you guys do this, but I don't think it's for me. So I chose Twitter as a free, simple form of quick communication. I like following some people on there - the real time short bits are good when informative. Brewster sets records for number of exclamation points used in each tweet!!!! So, I think you guys should jump on board - it would/will be a quick way to interact through your phone with the entire group during the fun Saturdays and Sundays in the fall. Dropping quick one liners that I used to have to text or make a 9 second phone call for will be shifted to this medium. I can envision such critical things as, "who hates iowa?!?" and "bring in Gray!" but hopefully it will be used for meaningful things as well. We'll see, but I guess it's no good unless a lot of other people (you guys) get on board. So it's up to you, let me know what you think. If you can text, you can do Twitter on your phone...let's try it.
One other interesting note on technology - I figured out how I can post to the blog with my phone. This will create some interesting game days at TCF w/writings and pictures on a stream-of-consciouness kind of way...good stuff.
Next, I'm thinking of changing the name of the blog after seeing the World Futbol Challenge across the bottom line this weekend. I don't want to be confused with a Soccer tournament...I'm open to suggestions.
I did lots of small conference studying this weekend - so be prepared for some interesting preveiws coming this week on the tiny little brother conferences. Also, with Vikes camp opening this week the NFL has finally reached my radar, so I'll throw up some division predictions coming up soon and hope for you guys to do the same if you'd like.
Finally, it's B10 media day. Highlights:
- Bielema says that Madison is the toughest place to play in the B10...hmmm, 48-7 vs. PSU last year...didn't look too tough. Cal-Poly and the Gophs almost pulled off wins 2 weeks in a row last year...time to look again Bielema. On that note - I found a "home-field advantage" chart that covers the last 10 years. Gophers have won 62.1% of their home games in that span. WIS is at 74.2% (worse than MICH 78.7%, OHIOST 87.1%, IOWA 77.6%, PSU 75.4%). #1 on the list...BOISE at 96.6%, wow. Georgia is actually a better road team than home team.
- Brew says he's in favor of a championship game and longer season (playing into DEC)...I agree, it gets brought up every year, and every year the B10 sucks in the bowl games...correlation?
- Zook wants to play NW at Wrigley...not sure how that would st up for football, but I like the idea.
That's about it for now. I need to wrap up the small conference previews and get those posted because we are dangerously close to our 4 week countdown before actual games will be played and counted!! Woo-hoo!
PJ - No Way (sign up for Twitter! Follow gophertree)
Here's a token of my openness
Of my need to not disappear
How I'm feeling, so revealing to me
I found my mind too clear
I just need someone to be there for.. me
I just want someone to be there for.. me
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Recruiting 2010...2011? And Big East 2009 Preview
So this was going to be only the Big East 2009 Preview, but I thought I'd run through a quick recap of recruiting and who we have for verbals thus far.
Obviously, the big dog, Seantrel Henderson, will not be committing anywhere until the HS All-American games...but I'm not holding my breath on that guy. It really can't be anything against Brewster if, as expected, Henderson goes to Florida or USC or some other gigantic national progrum. But before everyone gets all anti-Brewster for not being able to lure the #1 player in the entire nation, let's look at who is on board to be in Maroon and Gold.
2010 Verbals
So maybe we don't get the #1 OL and #1 player in the entire country...but we've locked in Jimmy Gjere (Jerry) who is currently ranked as the #6 OL in the entire nation, not bad.
We've also locked up Kip Smith, a kicker out of Colorado (I know it's just a kicker, but when was the last time we actually recruited someone solid for this important spot?). He's currently ranked as the #3 K in the whole country. Tom Parrish, a Sconny, is our big-time QB from this class ranked #14 overall. Lamonte Edwards is a 4-star kid out of Woodbury who has the size to play LB or RB at the B10 level. These are only some of the bigger names - and it's only July. Just wait until we start strong and Seantrel starts thinking more and more about playing at home...that could be fun.
One other recruiting note before we get to the big East preview - the Gophers received a verbal today from an absolute star RB from the 2011 class out of Illinois. Calvin Phillips apparently is an Illini fan and was pretty convinced that he would attend Illinois in an interview at an ESPN camp where he was the standout of all standouts. Well, today he verballed to the Gophs - this guy is apparently a 5-star possibility, which would turn a lot of heads if it's true and this commitment holds solid.
Now, on to the boring stuff. The big EAST...the worst BCS conference around.
I think it's a 2 horse race this year between Rutgers and Pitt - they play in Rutgers so that's my #1.
#1 RUTGERS PR-7
Rutgers? Really? I know. I said the same thing when my rankings came out like this, but this just proves how much the big EAST sucks. Why Rutgers, well, the bring back 5 OL to a very good unit and have a 1st time starter at QB - but he's a senior with a little experience. Playing defense is not too difficult in a conference with offense like this, so they will be up to par on this side of the ball. Actually, the 4/7 they return up front on D is tied for the most in the bEAST, so I have the D as one of the Top 2 or 3 in the conference. The schedule reads like something Glen Mason would put together. All semi-difficult games are at home in SUNJ. The toughest road test are Maryland I guess even though they should be down, at UCONN and at Louisville. Not too bad. Want to hear something even more bizarre...I don't see a loss on the schedule. I can't call for 12-0 on a team that I really don't believe in that much, so I'll say a soft 10-2 and a conference title.
#2 PITT PR-7
Stull is back as a Sr QB, and 4 OL return. They finally had the 9 win breakthrough last year, mainly because this offense finally picked it up and started scoring points. I think they'll be fine on this side. The D is great up front and should be very similar to last year. The schedule has 3 or 4 likely losses, so I'm saying 8-4 because Wansteadt isn't a good coach.
#3 WEST VIRGINIA PR-6.5
Am I the only one who sees this progrum swirling down the drain faster and faster with Billt Stewart at the top? Most bEAST previews I've read continue to think this is still DickRod's Mountaineers...but it's not even close. They went 8-4 last year with Pat White, the greatest most absolutely perfect QB for this offense. This year they start senior Jarrett Brown, who a lot of people seem to love but I have not been real impressed in the little I've seen. 1 OL is back as well - not a good thing for a 1st time starter at QB. This offense only scored 24 ppg with White leading the way - they may really slip to even below average this year. The defense will continue to be a strength, like it has been for quite a while. But there is only so much you can do with a great D and no offense in college football...8-4.
#4 USF PR-6
The Bulls had really high hopes in 2009, and I was a big believer. Mistake #1, never trust an unproven team who's never done anything before. This year, Grothe is back. I know this kid is good, he just makes too many critical mistakes at big points in the game...maybe that goes away as a senior. Only 1 OL returns, but I'll say the offense stays the same. On D, a great DL lead the way. George Selvie might be the quickest DE I've ever seen off the snap. They do have new OC and DC, so that could create a bit of a transition period as well. After 3 cupcakes, the schedule is very tough. I say they can do no better than 7-5.
#5 UCONN PR-6
The little engine that could keeps on surprising people. I always seem to discount these guys going into the season, and then they end up in a bowl game again. Last year they used a great D and running game to overcome a QB who literally could not throw the football. This year, they have a new guy under center and 3 OL back. They did lose Brown at RB, but RB's can be replaced a lot easier than the other spots. A new OC comes from Akron...not sure if that will make much of a difference. The defense should be about the same as last year, which keeps this team in pretty much the same spot they always are...right on the verge of a bowl game. I'll say 6-6.
#6 CINCY PR-5.5
I think the luck has run out for this team. After 2 stellar years for Brian Kelly, there's not much to work with in 2009. The do get Tony Pike, a senior, back from injury to play QB and 3 OL in front of him. So the Offense should actually be the same or better than the 27 ppg of last year. The problems lie on defense. This group was outstanding last year with most everyone back...well, they're all gone now. 0 of the front 7 return, which means the 20 ppg of 2009 will almost for sure increase to around 27. They also have a new DC to run the show...probably a bit of a downgrade. I think it's major rebuilding mode, but look out for these guys next season...5-7
#7 LOUSIVILLE PR-5.5
Kragthorpe enters his 3rd and likely final year at Louisville. He's done a pretty terrible job, and that's not going to change in 2009. The players are there for this team to be a little better than last season's 5-7, which would have you thinking bowl game, right? Wrong. Indiana State, and Arkansas State, and probably the 'Cuse are the only 3 likely wins on the slate. Yeah, they're that bad...3-9.
#8 SYRACUSE PR-5
Doug Marrone takes over an absolute disaster of a progrum this year. QB options...a freshman, a shitty upperclassman, or a guy who was a highly touted HS QB who has been playing point guard for the last 4 years. Wow. And we get to play these guys in week 1!! It's going to be a battle, Marrone is in a no win situation, but he really shouldn't be able to disappoint anyone because expectations are at an all-time low. 2-10 is my prediction.
There you go - one of the worst conferences in America. Somebody has to win it, and with the cake-walk of a schedule that Rutgers has in 2009, I think they are the obvious choice.
Next week - some quick run through previews of the CUSA, MWC, WAC, SBC, and of course the 3 mighty Independents.
One final note - I had some feedback about making the payouts $280 for the winner and $40 for 2nd so they can get their money back...works for me. Let me know if there are any objections.
50 days, 1 hour, 50 minutes...
Obviously, the big dog, Seantrel Henderson, will not be committing anywhere until the HS All-American games...but I'm not holding my breath on that guy. It really can't be anything against Brewster if, as expected, Henderson goes to Florida or USC or some other gigantic national progrum. But before everyone gets all anti-Brewster for not being able to lure the #1 player in the entire nation, let's look at who is on board to be in Maroon and Gold.
2010 Verbals
So maybe we don't get the #1 OL and #1 player in the entire country...but we've locked in Jimmy Gjere (Jerry) who is currently ranked as the #6 OL in the entire nation, not bad.
We've also locked up Kip Smith, a kicker out of Colorado (I know it's just a kicker, but when was the last time we actually recruited someone solid for this important spot?). He's currently ranked as the #3 K in the whole country. Tom Parrish, a Sconny, is our big-time QB from this class ranked #14 overall. Lamonte Edwards is a 4-star kid out of Woodbury who has the size to play LB or RB at the B10 level. These are only some of the bigger names - and it's only July. Just wait until we start strong and Seantrel starts thinking more and more about playing at home...that could be fun.
One other recruiting note before we get to the big East preview - the Gophers received a verbal today from an absolute star RB from the 2011 class out of Illinois. Calvin Phillips apparently is an Illini fan and was pretty convinced that he would attend Illinois in an interview at an ESPN camp where he was the standout of all standouts. Well, today he verballed to the Gophs - this guy is apparently a 5-star possibility, which would turn a lot of heads if it's true and this commitment holds solid.
Now, on to the boring stuff. The big EAST...the worst BCS conference around.
I think it's a 2 horse race this year between Rutgers and Pitt - they play in Rutgers so that's my #1.
#1 RUTGERS PR-7
Rutgers? Really? I know. I said the same thing when my rankings came out like this, but this just proves how much the big EAST sucks. Why Rutgers, well, the bring back 5 OL to a very good unit and have a 1st time starter at QB - but he's a senior with a little experience. Playing defense is not too difficult in a conference with offense like this, so they will be up to par on this side of the ball. Actually, the 4/7 they return up front on D is tied for the most in the bEAST, so I have the D as one of the Top 2 or 3 in the conference. The schedule reads like something Glen Mason would put together. All semi-difficult games are at home in SUNJ. The toughest road test are Maryland I guess even though they should be down, at UCONN and at Louisville. Not too bad. Want to hear something even more bizarre...I don't see a loss on the schedule. I can't call for 12-0 on a team that I really don't believe in that much, so I'll say a soft 10-2 and a conference title.
#2 PITT PR-7
Stull is back as a Sr QB, and 4 OL return. They finally had the 9 win breakthrough last year, mainly because this offense finally picked it up and started scoring points. I think they'll be fine on this side. The D is great up front and should be very similar to last year. The schedule has 3 or 4 likely losses, so I'm saying 8-4 because Wansteadt isn't a good coach.
#3 WEST VIRGINIA PR-6.5
Am I the only one who sees this progrum swirling down the drain faster and faster with Billt Stewart at the top? Most bEAST previews I've read continue to think this is still DickRod's Mountaineers...but it's not even close. They went 8-4 last year with Pat White, the greatest most absolutely perfect QB for this offense. This year they start senior Jarrett Brown, who a lot of people seem to love but I have not been real impressed in the little I've seen. 1 OL is back as well - not a good thing for a 1st time starter at QB. This offense only scored 24 ppg with White leading the way - they may really slip to even below average this year. The defense will continue to be a strength, like it has been for quite a while. But there is only so much you can do with a great D and no offense in college football...8-4.
#4 USF PR-6
The Bulls had really high hopes in 2009, and I was a big believer. Mistake #1, never trust an unproven team who's never done anything before. This year, Grothe is back. I know this kid is good, he just makes too many critical mistakes at big points in the game...maybe that goes away as a senior. Only 1 OL returns, but I'll say the offense stays the same. On D, a great DL lead the way. George Selvie might be the quickest DE I've ever seen off the snap. They do have new OC and DC, so that could create a bit of a transition period as well. After 3 cupcakes, the schedule is very tough. I say they can do no better than 7-5.
#5 UCONN PR-6
The little engine that could keeps on surprising people. I always seem to discount these guys going into the season, and then they end up in a bowl game again. Last year they used a great D and running game to overcome a QB who literally could not throw the football. This year, they have a new guy under center and 3 OL back. They did lose Brown at RB, but RB's can be replaced a lot easier than the other spots. A new OC comes from Akron...not sure if that will make much of a difference. The defense should be about the same as last year, which keeps this team in pretty much the same spot they always are...right on the verge of a bowl game. I'll say 6-6.
#6 CINCY PR-5.5
I think the luck has run out for this team. After 2 stellar years for Brian Kelly, there's not much to work with in 2009. The do get Tony Pike, a senior, back from injury to play QB and 3 OL in front of him. So the Offense should actually be the same or better than the 27 ppg of last year. The problems lie on defense. This group was outstanding last year with most everyone back...well, they're all gone now. 0 of the front 7 return, which means the 20 ppg of 2009 will almost for sure increase to around 27. They also have a new DC to run the show...probably a bit of a downgrade. I think it's major rebuilding mode, but look out for these guys next season...5-7
#7 LOUSIVILLE PR-5.5
Kragthorpe enters his 3rd and likely final year at Louisville. He's done a pretty terrible job, and that's not going to change in 2009. The players are there for this team to be a little better than last season's 5-7, which would have you thinking bowl game, right? Wrong. Indiana State, and Arkansas State, and probably the 'Cuse are the only 3 likely wins on the slate. Yeah, they're that bad...3-9.
#8 SYRACUSE PR-5
Doug Marrone takes over an absolute disaster of a progrum this year. QB options...a freshman, a shitty upperclassman, or a guy who was a highly touted HS QB who has been playing point guard for the last 4 years. Wow. And we get to play these guys in week 1!! It's going to be a battle, Marrone is in a no win situation, but he really shouldn't be able to disappoint anyone because expectations are at an all-time low. 2-10 is my prediction.
There you go - one of the worst conferences in America. Somebody has to win it, and with the cake-walk of a schedule that Rutgers has in 2009, I think they are the obvious choice.
Next week - some quick run through previews of the CUSA, MWC, WAC, SBC, and of course the 3 mighty Independents.
One final note - I had some feedback about making the payouts $280 for the winner and $40 for 2nd so they can get their money back...works for me. Let me know if there are any objections.
50 days, 1 hour, 50 minutes...
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Tuesday Check-in
Hey Guys -
Just had a minute to spare and thought I'd drop in a couple of notes around what's happening.
First - how about Mr. Watson on Sunday?!? They mentioned it a few times on the broadcast, but betting is legal in Scotland on sports. Watson's odds were 1000:1 on winning the Open Championship - how bad did that 10 footer hurt for the guy who spent $20 on a win ticket for Watson?!? Ouch, $20K is more than a kick in the teeth.
I watched on the news either Sunday or Monday night, and they said that the price of flights will be dropping drastically in the middle of August...so I'm waiting until then to lock in for LV this year.
We have our 8th member - many of you know him well...my dad, Greg Rollins. He'll take out a small loan to get the entry fee in and compete with some of the greatest football minds around. So that gives us an even 8 guys, I think we're good with that. I'm thinking either $20 or $40...doesn't look like we've had a lot of takers on the poll on this site, so I'm not sure which way you guys are leaning. I feel like $40 is more of a commitment and much better payout for the champ. What do you think? I'm thinking $40 each, payout is $300 to the champ, $20 to 2nd.
Finally, we have to close with a Gopher note - Hayo is here! It sounds like everything is in order and he's ready to start practice on August 10th. He and Decker should make quite the combo for #8 this year.
I'll try to get the Big East preview out later this week - until then...
Another from No Code...Who you are
come to send, not condescend
transcendental consequence
is to transcend where we are
who are we? who we are
trampled moss on your souls
changes all you're a part
seen it all, not at all
can't defend fucked up man
take me a for a ride before we leave...
circumstance, clapping hands
driving winds, happenstance
off the track, in the mud
that's the moss in the aforementioned verse
just a little time, before we leave...
stop light plays its part
so i would say you've got a part
what's your part? who you are
you are who, who you are
Just had a minute to spare and thought I'd drop in a couple of notes around what's happening.
First - how about Mr. Watson on Sunday?!? They mentioned it a few times on the broadcast, but betting is legal in Scotland on sports. Watson's odds were 1000:1 on winning the Open Championship - how bad did that 10 footer hurt for the guy who spent $20 on a win ticket for Watson?!? Ouch, $20K is more than a kick in the teeth.
I watched on the news either Sunday or Monday night, and they said that the price of flights will be dropping drastically in the middle of August...so I'm waiting until then to lock in for LV this year.
We have our 8th member - many of you know him well...my dad, Greg Rollins. He'll take out a small loan to get the entry fee in and compete with some of the greatest football minds around. So that gives us an even 8 guys, I think we're good with that. I'm thinking either $20 or $40...doesn't look like we've had a lot of takers on the poll on this site, so I'm not sure which way you guys are leaning. I feel like $40 is more of a commitment and much better payout for the champ. What do you think? I'm thinking $40 each, payout is $300 to the champ, $20 to 2nd.
Finally, we have to close with a Gopher note - Hayo is here! It sounds like everything is in order and he's ready to start practice on August 10th. He and Decker should make quite the combo for #8 this year.
I'll try to get the Big East preview out later this week - until then...
Another from No Code...Who you are
come to send, not condescend
transcendental consequence
is to transcend where we are
who are we? who we are
trampled moss on your souls
changes all you're a part
seen it all, not at all
can't defend fucked up man
take me a for a ride before we leave...
circumstance, clapping hands
driving winds, happenstance
off the track, in the mud
that's the moss in the aforementioned verse
just a little time, before we leave...
stop light plays its part
so i would say you've got a part
what's your part? who you are
you are who, who you are
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Quick Gopher Update
Hey Guys -
Just a couple of quick notes to recap some of the things that have been happening in Gopher World:
1) Lipscomb and Tremaine Brock will not be on the squad this season.
Not a shocker on Brock, as soon as he left I thought it was unlikely we would ever see him again. He was nice last year, but not irreplaceable. I think there are enough young kids that can contribute in the secondary - so I'm not thinking we'll really miss him much at all. Kim Royston, the Sconny transfer, will probably step in and start beside Theret (hopefully someone else). Overall, I don't think this makes the secondary an issue.
2) Finally, some good July news for the maroon and gold - the big bosses decided to surround the field with bricks instead of the concrete and padding that was originally planned. This is going to look great, and it will be done for the opener. This was about the only complaint I was finding about the stadium (except the booze issue) so it's nice to see that they stepped up and made the change. It should continue to draw comparisons to the old Brickhouse with this addition. Although, I did see a picture of the old Brickhouse yesterday, and the scoreboard looked smaller than my laptop.
58 days, 11 hours, 29 minutes until kick-off...
A couple other notes I read last night -
Florida is a double digit in every single game this year right now. Now, I know they are going to be extremely loaded, but really? Will they win by 10+ in every SEC game? The strangest one I saw was FLA -27 vs. Lane Kiffin and Tennessee in late September. That's nuts - but I guess the wise guys making the numbers expect Urban to lay it on the newbie in their first meeting after all the crap he's been spewing out this off-season.
One other strange line I saw: ND -17 vs. Nevada in week 1. Can I bet the farm on Nevada right now?!? ND will definitely be better this year, but NEV scores a lot of points and has a really good team...this line is not even close and I'll expect it to shrink dramatically by the time the beginning of September rolls around.
Just a couple of quick notes to recap some of the things that have been happening in Gopher World:
1) Lipscomb and Tremaine Brock will not be on the squad this season.
Not a shocker on Brock, as soon as he left I thought it was unlikely we would ever see him again. He was nice last year, but not irreplaceable. I think there are enough young kids that can contribute in the secondary - so I'm not thinking we'll really miss him much at all. Kim Royston, the Sconny transfer, will probably step in and start beside Theret (hopefully someone else). Overall, I don't think this makes the secondary an issue.
2) Finally, some good July news for the maroon and gold - the big bosses decided to surround the field with bricks instead of the concrete and padding that was originally planned. This is going to look great, and it will be done for the opener. This was about the only complaint I was finding about the stadium (except the booze issue) so it's nice to see that they stepped up and made the change. It should continue to draw comparisons to the old Brickhouse with this addition. Although, I did see a picture of the old Brickhouse yesterday, and the scoreboard looked smaller than my laptop.
58 days, 11 hours, 29 minutes until kick-off...
A couple other notes I read last night -
Florida is a double digit in every single game this year right now. Now, I know they are going to be extremely loaded, but really? Will they win by 10+ in every SEC game? The strangest one I saw was FLA -27 vs. Lane Kiffin and Tennessee in late September. That's nuts - but I guess the wise guys making the numbers expect Urban to lay it on the newbie in their first meeting after all the crap he's been spewing out this off-season.
One other strange line I saw: ND -17 vs. Nevada in week 1. Can I bet the farm on Nevada right now?!? ND will definitely be better this year, but NEV scores a lot of points and has a really good team...this line is not even close and I'll expect it to shrink dramatically by the time the beginning of September rolls around.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Pac-10 (USC+9) Preview 2009
Is there any question about the Pac-1o this year? I've heard the Cal hype, I know UCLA is improving, the Ducks and Beavers are always fun too...but seriously, no one touches USC - they never do.
If I was forced to pick a #2 favorite team in NCAA football, this club would be it. How can you not love Pete Carroll and the program they run out there?!? I know, it's fun to hate a dynasty - I do in most cases (Cowboys, Yankees, Lakers)...but I simply cannot hate this team. So if anyone tries to talk you into a different pick for the P10 champ, take their money and run. USC has only won at least 11 games each of the last 7 years...yep, 7 years in a row at 11+...wow. Carroll started his run as a Trojan at 2-5...since then he's a decent 86-10. It doesn't matter if there is coaching turnover or huge player losses - nothing will stop this machine anytime soon.
With that - let's start at the top...the Trojans
#1 USC PR-9.5
Although they will likely be down a bit from last year, you can never count this team out of the Nat'l title hunt. They have 3 all-world QB's competing to run the show (maybe down to 2 right now So-Corp, tFr-Barkley). 5 OL return to a dominant unit from LY, this should help make up for any drop-off they might see at QB becaus you know they have skill players by the bunches just waiting for their turn to shine in front of the Song girls. The D suffers some giant losses from a record setting unit of 2008. How ridiculous are these numbers: they gave up 7.8 ppg in the regular season - those are HS crazy numbers. Pitched 4 shutouts last year and allowed more than 10 points only 2 times in 12 games. Good god - how do you not win a Nat'l title with a defense like that? Well, the Pac-10 really doesn't get a ton of respect, so losing a game in conference, which has been the Trojans achilles heel the last few years, kills their hopes of a Nat'l title. Anyway, only one of the front 7 is back...but they reload and they do it fast. Both the DL and LB are high on the talent scale, so they will be down a bit - but who wouldn't after only allowing 8 ppg last year! They also have the unique situation of replacing both the OC and DC this season. Both come from within (another genius part of Carroll's co-coordinator system) so I don't think this will be an issue. At Cal and at OHIOST appear to be the only potential land mines on the slate, but you know they will likely lose a bad one (STAN07, OREST08) and be out of the hunt. Regardless, my numbers say (12-0) so I'll go with it!
#2 CAL PR-9
If Cal was ever going to do it, this is probably their best shot. I had them rated as a 9 in 2008 when they went 8-4, which I thought was a little high, but not after I looked at the numbers. A +13 ptdiff looks pretty good in a conference like the P10. This year, Kevin Riley returns at QB. He's a junior, but the jury is still out on this guy. 3 OL return...but most importantly Jahvid Best is back. I was watching a replay of the game with Stanford last night from 2008, and Best might be the fastest player I've seen in quite a long time...I'm getting more frightened by the day of this guy at TCF in September. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, they should be a little worse than last year but not by much. They also have another new OC, which seems to be Teford's MO at Cal - Ludwig comes from Utah to take over the offense...but seriously people, why doesn't Tedford, a nototrious control freak, just take the job himself and stop flying through a new OC every year. This shouldn't make much of a difference for the 09 Bears. The problem for Cal is that they don't play every game at home...1-4 on the road last year (which is why I like the Gophers' chances!). Sadly, they have road games scheduled again this year, so I think they lose one or two of them and they lose to USC...(10-2).
#3 UCLA - PR 7.5
Year 2 of the Neuheisel era should be much better than year 1. That's how he rolls, no matter what you think of the guy he does turn programs around and wins games...at least temporarily. They are planning to go with Prince, a freshman, at QB. But it can't get any worse than the crap they threw out there in 2008. 4 OL return from a decent group - not ultra-talented, but serviceable. 5 of the front 7 are back on D...really solid DL group. Bullough will take over the D, he was promoted from within when Dewayne Walker left for the NM head job. Walker was good, but his group allowed 29 ppg last year - so they will be better. They were also a -10 in TO last year, this should hopefully improve. I have them right around (8-4).
#4 OREGON ST - PR 7
This sneaky little club always finds a way to finish top 3, so I'm kind of hesitant to put them below UCLA...but here's why I did. Only 3 OL return to an average group, and only 3 of the front 7 are back on D. This and their brutal road schedule (USC, CAL, ORE, ASU) mean a little more trouble than expected for the Beavers...(7-5).
That's the first tier - the next 4 could go in any order...take your pick:
#5 OREGON - PR 6.5
Oregon lost a lot, including their head coach, after last season. The Belotti exit will be the biggest blow in my opinion. Masoli looked great at QB late in the year, but only 1 OL is back. Only 3 of the front 7 are back on D. Chip Kelly takes over as the coach - but I think it's a big drop-off, the hand-picked successor thing really hasn't always worked out great in the past (Becky! or wait, that's working out wonderful for our favorite squad :)) and I don't like Kelly's chances. His talent is down, but he will be under fire early with a (6-6) 2009 season.
#6 ARIZONA - PR 6.5
The Cats finally turned the corner a little last year. Sadly, Tuitama finally graduated, and they will be breaking in a new QB. Only 2 OL are back - the offense could be in for a very large drop off from their 37 ppg in 2008. 5 of the front 7 are back - 4 on the DL. The slate isn't great with almost all of their tough games on the road (USC, CAL, OREST, ASU, and IOWA in non-conf). Bottom line...I'll say back to the bowls but barely (6-6).
#7 STANFORD - PR 6.5
You have to be impressed with the Jim Harbaugh era thus far. He has recruited well, pulled off a couple of large upsets, and actually made Stanford a factor in the P10 once again. They will be starting a freshman at QB this year, but he's highly touted so you have to expect some good things to come in 2009. 3 OL return to what appears to be a Top 25 caliber OL. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well - this unit should improve based on experience alone. A very tough schedule sits in front of the Cardinal with 5 of their home games being toss-ups...too much to overcome and I'll keep them at (5-7).
#8 ARIZONA ST - PR 6.5
Finally a new QB takes over for the Devils. Sophomore Szakacsy takes the reins of Erickson's offense, which only prodcued 23 ppg in 2008. 4 OL are back, but the unit isn't very good and 4 of the front 7 are back on D - always a strength in Tempe. I think this is a very similar team to last year and I'll keep them out of the bowl picture at (5-7).
#9 WASHINGTON - PR 6
Steve Sarkisian steps in for year 1 with a team coming off a complete disaster of a year at 0-12. Why 0-12, pick your reason: scored 13 ppg and allowed 39 ppg, -17 in TO, lost starting QB for the year during game 3, had Ty Willingham as their coach. All valid reasons to expect something terrible. 2009 should be much better. Locker should be healthy, and that will get them a couple of wins by itself. The problem is the schedule...it's hard to put their talent above anybody in the league besides WASU, so I think you can only guarantee one conference win. The out of conf slate is BRUTAL...LSU, Notre Dame, IDAHO...I think they can handle the Vandals, but the other 2 could be ugly. So there it is...(2-10) - a big improvement from 0-12 I guess. This shouldn't be a bad team, but it won't look like it in their record.
#10 WASU - PR 4
Paul Wulff is not a D1 coach. This was proven with the trainwreck of 2008 at 2-10. Check out these numbers 13 ppg allowed 44 ppg, -25 in TO yep they averaged a -2 every week! It doesn't matter what is returning for this team - Wulff is terrible. I will set this club in stone at the #10 spot for the forseeable future as long as Wulff is running the show. They might handle SMU, but even that is in doubt...I think this club is awful (0-12).
There it is. Only one of the Big 6 to go (and really, can we even include the Big Least in the 6 BCS conferences any longer?). After that we'll start flying through the lesser known teams and get on to some more opinion pieces.
Like always - please post your thoughts and/or comments on what's happening.
Well, off to hit some balls in preparation for the big golf outings coming up - have a good rest of the week.
Wait - one last thought. I'm trying to figure out the best quick way for us all to keep in touch during the week/weekend once the season starts. Here are my thoughts - I know some of you are on Facebook already, I'm not...but I might be willing to break down and do it if we think it's the most efficient. Otherwise, I was thinking Twitter maybe? I know, kind of way too early for Tree to be adopting this (and yes, that was 3rd person speak...you're welcome) but it might be pretty slick. You can have it sent to your phone and it would be easier than having to sit at your computer to stay in touch. I just end up spending a fortune in texting on Saturdays throughout the year, so I'm trying to find a more optimal way to make this work. Any other ideas - let me know, but I think it would be fun for everyone to have an account on one of these or both of these services to allow us to interact and talk smack throughout the week/weekend slate of games.
Let me know what you think.
Closing with maybe my all-time fav PJ tune...top 5 at least - "Off he goes"
and now i rub my eyes, for he has returned
seems my preconceptions are what should have been burned
for he still smiles... and he's still strong
nothing's changed, but the surrounding bullshit that has grown
and now he's home
and we're laughing like we always did
my same old, same old friend
until a quarter-to-ten
i saw the strain creep in
he seems distracted and i know just what is gonna happen next
before his first step
he's off again
If I was forced to pick a #2 favorite team in NCAA football, this club would be it. How can you not love Pete Carroll and the program they run out there?!? I know, it's fun to hate a dynasty - I do in most cases (Cowboys, Yankees, Lakers)...but I simply cannot hate this team. So if anyone tries to talk you into a different pick for the P10 champ, take their money and run. USC has only won at least 11 games each of the last 7 years...yep, 7 years in a row at 11+...wow. Carroll started his run as a Trojan at 2-5...since then he's a decent 86-10. It doesn't matter if there is coaching turnover or huge player losses - nothing will stop this machine anytime soon.
With that - let's start at the top...the Trojans
#1 USC PR-9.5
Although they will likely be down a bit from last year, you can never count this team out of the Nat'l title hunt. They have 3 all-world QB's competing to run the show (maybe down to 2 right now So-Corp, tFr-Barkley). 5 OL return to a dominant unit from LY, this should help make up for any drop-off they might see at QB becaus you know they have skill players by the bunches just waiting for their turn to shine in front of the Song girls. The D suffers some giant losses from a record setting unit of 2008. How ridiculous are these numbers: they gave up 7.8 ppg in the regular season - those are HS crazy numbers. Pitched 4 shutouts last year and allowed more than 10 points only 2 times in 12 games. Good god - how do you not win a Nat'l title with a defense like that? Well, the Pac-10 really doesn't get a ton of respect, so losing a game in conference, which has been the Trojans achilles heel the last few years, kills their hopes of a Nat'l title. Anyway, only one of the front 7 is back...but they reload and they do it fast. Both the DL and LB are high on the talent scale, so they will be down a bit - but who wouldn't after only allowing 8 ppg last year! They also have the unique situation of replacing both the OC and DC this season. Both come from within (another genius part of Carroll's co-coordinator system) so I don't think this will be an issue. At Cal and at OHIOST appear to be the only potential land mines on the slate, but you know they will likely lose a bad one (STAN07, OREST08) and be out of the hunt. Regardless, my numbers say (12-0) so I'll go with it!
#2 CAL PR-9
If Cal was ever going to do it, this is probably their best shot. I had them rated as a 9 in 2008 when they went 8-4, which I thought was a little high, but not after I looked at the numbers. A +13 ptdiff looks pretty good in a conference like the P10. This year, Kevin Riley returns at QB. He's a junior, but the jury is still out on this guy. 3 OL return...but most importantly Jahvid Best is back. I was watching a replay of the game with Stanford last night from 2008, and Best might be the fastest player I've seen in quite a long time...I'm getting more frightened by the day of this guy at TCF in September. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, they should be a little worse than last year but not by much. They also have another new OC, which seems to be Teford's MO at Cal - Ludwig comes from Utah to take over the offense...but seriously people, why doesn't Tedford, a nototrious control freak, just take the job himself and stop flying through a new OC every year. This shouldn't make much of a difference for the 09 Bears. The problem for Cal is that they don't play every game at home...1-4 on the road last year (which is why I like the Gophers' chances!). Sadly, they have road games scheduled again this year, so I think they lose one or two of them and they lose to USC...(10-2).
#3 UCLA - PR 7.5
Year 2 of the Neuheisel era should be much better than year 1. That's how he rolls, no matter what you think of the guy he does turn programs around and wins games...at least temporarily. They are planning to go with Prince, a freshman, at QB. But it can't get any worse than the crap they threw out there in 2008. 4 OL return from a decent group - not ultra-talented, but serviceable. 5 of the front 7 are back on D...really solid DL group. Bullough will take over the D, he was promoted from within when Dewayne Walker left for the NM head job. Walker was good, but his group allowed 29 ppg last year - so they will be better. They were also a -10 in TO last year, this should hopefully improve. I have them right around (8-4).
#4 OREGON ST - PR 7
This sneaky little club always finds a way to finish top 3, so I'm kind of hesitant to put them below UCLA...but here's why I did. Only 3 OL return to an average group, and only 3 of the front 7 are back on D. This and their brutal road schedule (USC, CAL, ORE, ASU) mean a little more trouble than expected for the Beavers...(7-5).
That's the first tier - the next 4 could go in any order...take your pick:
#5 OREGON - PR 6.5
Oregon lost a lot, including their head coach, after last season. The Belotti exit will be the biggest blow in my opinion. Masoli looked great at QB late in the year, but only 1 OL is back. Only 3 of the front 7 are back on D. Chip Kelly takes over as the coach - but I think it's a big drop-off, the hand-picked successor thing really hasn't always worked out great in the past (Becky! or wait, that's working out wonderful for our favorite squad :)) and I don't like Kelly's chances. His talent is down, but he will be under fire early with a (6-6) 2009 season.
#6 ARIZONA - PR 6.5
The Cats finally turned the corner a little last year. Sadly, Tuitama finally graduated, and they will be breaking in a new QB. Only 2 OL are back - the offense could be in for a very large drop off from their 37 ppg in 2008. 5 of the front 7 are back - 4 on the DL. The slate isn't great with almost all of their tough games on the road (USC, CAL, OREST, ASU, and IOWA in non-conf). Bottom line...I'll say back to the bowls but barely (6-6).
#7 STANFORD - PR 6.5
You have to be impressed with the Jim Harbaugh era thus far. He has recruited well, pulled off a couple of large upsets, and actually made Stanford a factor in the P10 once again. They will be starting a freshman at QB this year, but he's highly touted so you have to expect some good things to come in 2009. 3 OL return to what appears to be a Top 25 caliber OL. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well - this unit should improve based on experience alone. A very tough schedule sits in front of the Cardinal with 5 of their home games being toss-ups...too much to overcome and I'll keep them at (5-7).
#8 ARIZONA ST - PR 6.5
Finally a new QB takes over for the Devils. Sophomore Szakacsy takes the reins of Erickson's offense, which only prodcued 23 ppg in 2008. 4 OL are back, but the unit isn't very good and 4 of the front 7 are back on D - always a strength in Tempe. I think this is a very similar team to last year and I'll keep them out of the bowl picture at (5-7).
#9 WASHINGTON - PR 6
Steve Sarkisian steps in for year 1 with a team coming off a complete disaster of a year at 0-12. Why 0-12, pick your reason: scored 13 ppg and allowed 39 ppg, -17 in TO, lost starting QB for the year during game 3, had Ty Willingham as their coach. All valid reasons to expect something terrible. 2009 should be much better. Locker should be healthy, and that will get them a couple of wins by itself. The problem is the schedule...it's hard to put their talent above anybody in the league besides WASU, so I think you can only guarantee one conference win. The out of conf slate is BRUTAL...LSU, Notre Dame, IDAHO...I think they can handle the Vandals, but the other 2 could be ugly. So there it is...(2-10) - a big improvement from 0-12 I guess. This shouldn't be a bad team, but it won't look like it in their record.
#10 WASU - PR 4
Paul Wulff is not a D1 coach. This was proven with the trainwreck of 2008 at 2-10. Check out these numbers 13 ppg allowed 44 ppg, -25 in TO yep they averaged a -2 every week! It doesn't matter what is returning for this team - Wulff is terrible. I will set this club in stone at the #10 spot for the forseeable future as long as Wulff is running the show. They might handle SMU, but even that is in doubt...I think this club is awful (0-12).
There it is. Only one of the Big 6 to go (and really, can we even include the Big Least in the 6 BCS conferences any longer?). After that we'll start flying through the lesser known teams and get on to some more opinion pieces.
Like always - please post your thoughts and/or comments on what's happening.
Well, off to hit some balls in preparation for the big golf outings coming up - have a good rest of the week.
Wait - one last thought. I'm trying to figure out the best quick way for us all to keep in touch during the week/weekend once the season starts. Here are my thoughts - I know some of you are on Facebook already, I'm not...but I might be willing to break down and do it if we think it's the most efficient. Otherwise, I was thinking Twitter maybe? I know, kind of way too early for Tree to be adopting this (and yes, that was 3rd person speak...you're welcome) but it might be pretty slick. You can have it sent to your phone and it would be easier than having to sit at your computer to stay in touch. I just end up spending a fortune in texting on Saturdays throughout the year, so I'm trying to find a more optimal way to make this work. Any other ideas - let me know, but I think it would be fun for everyone to have an account on one of these or both of these services to allow us to interact and talk smack throughout the week/weekend slate of games.
Let me know what you think.
Closing with maybe my all-time fav PJ tune...top 5 at least - "Off he goes"
and now i rub my eyes, for he has returned
seems my preconceptions are what should have been burned
for he still smiles... and he's still strong
nothing's changed, but the surrounding bullshit that has grown
and now he's home
and we're laughing like we always did
my same old, same old friend
until a quarter-to-ten
i saw the strain creep in
he seems distracted and i know just what is gonna happen next
before his first step
he's off again
Monday, July 13, 2009
Lipscomb - not coming this year
So I know it's already Monday, but I've got some more bad news for you. Hasan Lipscomb, 4 star RB, was supposed to compete for a possible starting gig this year in the Gopher backfield...but he's not smart. He apparently couldn't qualify academically and will be going to a JC in Texas instead for at least this season. Let's hope it works out like Marqueis did last year and he's with us for 2010.
I don't think this necessarily kills our RB situation for 2009, but it does cost us a little depth. Bennett will be the #1, assuming he is healthy. I think Whaley will get time each week and probably be the #2. Eskridge - if he's improved - will likely be the #3 and I doubt Salamon and Jay Thomas will see much time barring a major injury or two.
We'll be alright, but this is definitely some negaitve news. Let's hope it's the end of it before Aug 10th and the first practice. Rumor is that star JUCO WR Hayo Carpenter is the other guy who hasn't arrived yet - although his JC coach claims it to be a transcript delay - but he's supposedly on his way. If this guy somehow falls through the cracks, then we have to start getting a little more concerned. All indications are that this guy will be a huge difference maker, #1 JUCO player in the nation by a couple of publications...let's hope we can see him in 2009.
I'm on short time this week due to an insane amount of golf on Thursday and Friday, so I'll throw out the P10 preview early this week.
Also - before I go, we have another new member. Mike Corcoran, a former BBY buddy, is in for the 2009 season. This brings our grand total to 7 right now - nearly double our previous size...I'm thinking 1-3 more and we'll be set for this year. Also I put a poll on the main page to get an opinion on entry fees for this year - please vote if you get a chance. I'm just thinking it makes sense to maybe up the ante with more people so the winner can actually take something decent out of this whole thing...also I think we'll need to collect $ up front this year since payouts in the past have been a little difficult. No cash = no picks that count.
PJ closes us down...a pretty one called "Parachutes"
Why deny
All the troubles when combined
with the missing links
It don't feel like
Home now,...
Then you're gone
All the troubles
Suddenly explained infinitum
You're always wishing and
Never here at home.
I don't think this necessarily kills our RB situation for 2009, but it does cost us a little depth. Bennett will be the #1, assuming he is healthy. I think Whaley will get time each week and probably be the #2. Eskridge - if he's improved - will likely be the #3 and I doubt Salamon and Jay Thomas will see much time barring a major injury or two.
We'll be alright, but this is definitely some negaitve news. Let's hope it's the end of it before Aug 10th and the first practice. Rumor is that star JUCO WR Hayo Carpenter is the other guy who hasn't arrived yet - although his JC coach claims it to be a transcript delay - but he's supposedly on his way. If this guy somehow falls through the cracks, then we have to start getting a little more concerned. All indications are that this guy will be a huge difference maker, #1 JUCO player in the nation by a couple of publications...let's hope we can see him in 2009.
I'm on short time this week due to an insane amount of golf on Thursday and Friday, so I'll throw out the P10 preview early this week.
Also - before I go, we have another new member. Mike Corcoran, a former BBY buddy, is in for the 2009 season. This brings our grand total to 7 right now - nearly double our previous size...I'm thinking 1-3 more and we'll be set for this year. Also I put a poll on the main page to get an opinion on entry fees for this year - please vote if you get a chance. I'm just thinking it makes sense to maybe up the ante with more people so the winner can actually take something decent out of this whole thing...also I think we'll need to collect $ up front this year since payouts in the past have been a little difficult. No cash = no picks that count.
PJ closes us down...a pretty one called "Parachutes"
Why deny
All the troubles when combined
with the missing links
It don't feel like
Home now,...
Then you're gone
All the troubles
Suddenly explained infinitum
You're always wishing and
Never here at home.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Golden Nugget posts 1st NCAA lines of the year!
Well, it's officially time to start speculating. The Golden Nugget in Vegas has posted lines for about 130 of the season's biggest games as of last week. Take a gander at them if you're interested: http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/DailyBlog.html
Here are some of the higlights incase you don't want to check out the link:
GOPHERS +2.5 vs. Becky
GOPHERS +9 at Iowa
Week 1 Big Games
BOISE -5 vs. Oregon
OKST -3 vs. Georgia
ILL -5.5 vs. Mizzou
ALA -4 vs. VT
OK -21 vs. BYU
LSU -14 at WASH
FSU -3 vs Miami
They also list a bunch for the VEGAS weekend of OCT 17th
CAL -3.5 at UCLA
TEX -2.5 vs. OK
USC -8 vs. ND
GT -6 vs. VT
NEB -7 vs. TT
RUT -3 vs. Pitt on the Friday before.
Good stuff guys - okay, now I'm officially getting excited for football season...we have some real numbers to start thinking about. I'm sure these will change, drastcially in some cases, but it's always fun to speculate in July!
Have a good rest of the day - be ready for the PAC-10 preview next week...who do you think I'll put on top for the left coast conference? It's a tricky one...U....S....C...
Later.
Here are some of the higlights incase you don't want to check out the link:
GOPHERS +2.5 vs. Becky
GOPHERS +9 at Iowa
Week 1 Big Games
BOISE -5 vs. Oregon
OKST -3 vs. Georgia
ILL -5.5 vs. Mizzou
ALA -4 vs. VT
OK -21 vs. BYU
LSU -14 at WASH
FSU -3 vs Miami
They also list a bunch for the VEGAS weekend of OCT 17th
CAL -3.5 at UCLA
TEX -2.5 vs. OK
USC -8 vs. ND
GT -6 vs. VT
NEB -7 vs. TT
RUT -3 vs. Pitt on the Friday before.
Good stuff guys - okay, now I'm officially getting excited for football season...we have some real numbers to start thinking about. I'm sure these will change, drastcially in some cases, but it's always fun to speculate in July!
Have a good rest of the day - be ready for the PAC-10 preview next week...who do you think I'll put on top for the left coast conference? It's a tricky one...U....S....C...
Later.
ACC 2009 Preview
The ACC, the country's biggest cluster of a conference, should be wide open again this year with lots of good teams - but probably not any great ones.
I can never remember which is the coastal and which is the other one...so I'll go with my names: The FSU side and the Miami side.
FSU DIVISION
#1 FSU PR - 7.5
Ponder returns at QB, 5 OL are back, only 3 of the front 7 return on D...but there's tons of talent so no worries. I think this club will be about the same as 2008, which should be good enough to win the FSU Division...(9-3).
#2 NCST PR - 7
A surprise #2 for this division, I like the Wolfpack and put them above Clemson based on schedule alone. Wilson returns at QB, All-ACC last year...he's $. 3 OL are back, enough to keep this unit stable. 5 of 7 return on the D...they should continue to improve. O'Brien enters his 3rd year with the program as head coach - I think they put it all together and have a breakout this season. A ton of their toss up games are at home, so I only see a few losses...(8-4).
#3 CLEMSON PR - 7
Dabo enters technically year 2, but it will be his first full year as head man. He has a lot coming back - 5 OL, 5 of front 7 on D...but his QB is Willy Korn, and unproven Sophomore who is hyped up to be solid...but you never know. He did pull a new DC from ALA to take over a talented D...I think they could be even better than the 17 ppg they allowed in 2008. Offense may sputter a little bit, but overall I see a year very similar to last season...(8-4).
#4 BC PR - 6
This looks like a tough one for BC. New coach Spaziani has a lot of the WV Bill Stewart feel to me. A life-time DC, and a great one, but there's a reason he never had the head job before now. He pulled his new OC from the NFL and his DC from within - probably a good call. Then their all-world LB gets diagnised with cancer before we even hit July, your projected starting QB is no longer on the team, you bring back only 3 of your front 7 on a nice defense from last year...what does it all mean, a rare season without a bowl game in BC...(5-7).
#5 WF PR - 6
How did this club go 7-5 in 2008? The outscored opponents 20-18, yep, they only averaged 20 ppg...pathetic. This year that number has to go up with senior Riley Skinner back at QB and 5 OL returning. The defense, that made them a +16 in TO last year, will only return 3 DL's and 0 LB's...ouch. This unit is in for a drop-off, but overall the Deacons will be close every week - just like almost everyone else in this conference! (5-7)
#6 MARYLAND PR - 5.5
So if you're wondering how WF went 7-5, how in the hell did Maryland go 7-5 with a 20-21 ppg average last season! Yes - they were negative in ptdiff, but made it to a bowl game. The offense should remain terrible, senior returning at QB, but only 2 OL make this a poor unit once again. 1 DL and 1 LB return from what was a nice defense in 2008. This group will likely be a little worse, which brings Maryland down to the cellar in the FSU Division...(3-9).
MIAMI DIVISION
#1 VT PR - 7.5
Once again, the cardinal rule in the ACC, never underestimate the Hokies. They were my call as conference champ last year, and I nailed it. So I have to stick with them again. Tyrod Taylor will have the full time QB job this year and 3 OL return. This team won 8 games while averaging only 22 ppg last year, so I'm saying this has to improve in 2009. The defense is ridiculuosly good every year, 17 ppg in 2008 - 4 of the front 7 are back - I'll say they are = to last year. The schedule isn't terrible (ALA and NEB are tough non-conf games, but could kick start a big season for the Hokies). They won't lose more than 1 in ACC play, so I'll say (10-2).
#2 GT PR - 7.5
People, including myself, were very skeptical last year with the Paul Johnson hiring. "Look at me now, look at me now..." I think everyone is on board for 2009. He went 9-3 with a team that had minimal talent and a complete 180 system change on offense...imagine what this guy could do with some of his own players and an upgrade in talent...scary. Nesbitt is back at QB, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back, year 2 of the Triple option attack....all this means another great year for Tech. The scheulde is not the easiest (at MIA, at FSU) so I'll say they finish just behind VT, who they'll probably beat head to head. (9-3).
#3 MIAMI PR - 7
The Miami Kobows, I mean Hurricanes might finally climbing there way back to respectability. I know 3rd in the division isn't quite what they have in mind, but they are getting back to prominance...slowly. Harris will be the full-time QB, showed flashes of greatness last season. 3 OL return, but the talent is outstanding. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well. It's only Shannon's 3rd year (doesn't it seem longer?) but he's got new coordinators on each side of the ball again this year. Whipple is the new OC from the Eagles, not sure how this will play out. Lovett is the new DC from the Tar Heels - I like that hire. Overall, the team is getting older, the great recruits are starting to play up to their potential and both units should improve...but not enough to get over the hump of VT and GT. How about this to open the season: at FSU, bye, GT, at VT, OK...nobody has a tougher stretch to open the year. If they can go .500 through that stretch they could win the conference...but I think they might lose them all. New systems on both sides typically struggle early in the year, so to open with your 4 biggest games all in a row is a bad sign for the U. (8-4) is my prediction simply because of the brutal schedule.
#4 NC PR - 6.5
The Heels are another up and comer, but this division is too stacked for them to make a lot of progress this season. Yates is back at QB, only 2 OL return...offense should be about the same. 6 of the front 7 are back on D, which should make the D even stronger than the 20 ppg they allowed last season. The schedule is a little difficult so I'm going with (7-5).
#5 VIRGINIA PR - 6.5
Never, ever, ever underestimate Al Groh. Seriously, I thought this was going to be one of the worst teams ever last season and he pulled them together to go 5-7 while only scoring 16 ppg! Ridiculous. Sewell returns at QB, and 4 OL are back - they have to be better than 16 ppg, right? The D might not be as good this year, 3 of the front 7 are back - they also have new OC and a new DC. Brandon comes from BGSU to run the offense, like I said, it can't be any worse. Trott comes from within to run the defense with Groh. I'll say they score a few more, give up a few more and end a little better than 2008...(6-6).
#6 DUKE PR - 5.5
This team has permanently cemented this #6 position for the Miami Division since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, and I don't really see that changing any time soon. I have to admit, David Cutcliffe did a helluva job in his 1st year here - so maybe there's a glimmer of hope. They went 4-8 and had a lot of near misses, which gave them a PR of 6.5 for last year (same as the Gophers). But that team had a ton of experience, which is now all gone. Lewis does return as the Sr. leader at QB...but that's about it. 2OL, 2DL, 1LB are all the other players that come back...not so good for the Dookies. I think the offense will break the 20 ppg barrier for the first time in a long time, because Cutcliffe is a offensive guru. The D will probably be a trainwreck, and get back to the 30 ppg allowed range that the Devils are used to. I say they drop a bit from last year, but Cutcliffe has this thing moving the right direction...(4-8).
So I'm calling for 8 of the 12 to be bowl eligible - not necessarily any elite teams, but it will be crazy competitve once again just like 2008.
VT vs. FSU in the championship game could be a great one. It all comes down to the QB's in this one, which guy will show up and emerge as a team leader for 2009...I like VT.
That's all I got for today...4 of the Big 6 down, 2 to go. Then we get into the nitty gritty with the always popular non-BCS conferences...fun times.
Before I close, I have to comment on the Jewel Hampton situation and the bizarro world of Hogeye football. So reports circulate that the guy hrt his knee - possibly out for the year, possibly missing a few games, possibly nothing at all. He had an MRI on Monday, and still nobody knows anything or isn't telling anyone. WHY?!? Does Cap. Kirk think something is going to change or letting the cat out of the bag that he is or isn't going to play this year is going to have any kind of advantage for their opponents? The best was the report in the Des Moines paper stating that when they went to Hampton's apartment to ask him he ran up the stairs to answer the door, so he must be okay. Well, for all the doctors in Iowa, if the report is correct that he tore his ACL he should have no problem running up the stairs...but see what happens when he tries to shuffle sideways or move laterally...his leg might fall off. I just think it's so ridiculous that this injury has been confirmed that it happened last week, but it's almost been an entire week and they still don't knwo exactly what's wrong with the guy? God I hate Iowa.
I never am one to hope for injuries, but I am hoping this one is true. That eliminates the only sure thing in their backfield and leaves more pressure on Stanzi. If he would go down early this year, the dillusional B10 title dreams of the Hogeyes will quickly turn to (6-6) or worse. These are the kind of things I hope for in 2009.
As always, let me know what you think - KOBS are the Cane's gonna make it happen this year? JG will the Noles be in the National Title picture? When they meet in week 1 will they combine for more than 20 points?!?!
I can never remember which is the coastal and which is the other one...so I'll go with my names: The FSU side and the Miami side.
FSU DIVISION
#1 FSU PR - 7.5
Ponder returns at QB, 5 OL are back, only 3 of the front 7 return on D...but there's tons of talent so no worries. I think this club will be about the same as 2008, which should be good enough to win the FSU Division...(9-3).
#2 NCST PR - 7
A surprise #2 for this division, I like the Wolfpack and put them above Clemson based on schedule alone. Wilson returns at QB, All-ACC last year...he's $. 3 OL are back, enough to keep this unit stable. 5 of 7 return on the D...they should continue to improve. O'Brien enters his 3rd year with the program as head coach - I think they put it all together and have a breakout this season. A ton of their toss up games are at home, so I only see a few losses...(8-4).
#3 CLEMSON PR - 7
Dabo enters technically year 2, but it will be his first full year as head man. He has a lot coming back - 5 OL, 5 of front 7 on D...but his QB is Willy Korn, and unproven Sophomore who is hyped up to be solid...but you never know. He did pull a new DC from ALA to take over a talented D...I think they could be even better than the 17 ppg they allowed in 2008. Offense may sputter a little bit, but overall I see a year very similar to last season...(8-4).
#4 BC PR - 6
This looks like a tough one for BC. New coach Spaziani has a lot of the WV Bill Stewart feel to me. A life-time DC, and a great one, but there's a reason he never had the head job before now. He pulled his new OC from the NFL and his DC from within - probably a good call. Then their all-world LB gets diagnised with cancer before we even hit July, your projected starting QB is no longer on the team, you bring back only 3 of your front 7 on a nice defense from last year...what does it all mean, a rare season without a bowl game in BC...(5-7).
#5 WF PR - 6
How did this club go 7-5 in 2008? The outscored opponents 20-18, yep, they only averaged 20 ppg...pathetic. This year that number has to go up with senior Riley Skinner back at QB and 5 OL returning. The defense, that made them a +16 in TO last year, will only return 3 DL's and 0 LB's...ouch. This unit is in for a drop-off, but overall the Deacons will be close every week - just like almost everyone else in this conference! (5-7)
#6 MARYLAND PR - 5.5
So if you're wondering how WF went 7-5, how in the hell did Maryland go 7-5 with a 20-21 ppg average last season! Yes - they were negative in ptdiff, but made it to a bowl game. The offense should remain terrible, senior returning at QB, but only 2 OL make this a poor unit once again. 1 DL and 1 LB return from what was a nice defense in 2008. This group will likely be a little worse, which brings Maryland down to the cellar in the FSU Division...(3-9).
MIAMI DIVISION
#1 VT PR - 7.5
Once again, the cardinal rule in the ACC, never underestimate the Hokies. They were my call as conference champ last year, and I nailed it. So I have to stick with them again. Tyrod Taylor will have the full time QB job this year and 3 OL return. This team won 8 games while averaging only 22 ppg last year, so I'm saying this has to improve in 2009. The defense is ridiculuosly good every year, 17 ppg in 2008 - 4 of the front 7 are back - I'll say they are = to last year. The schedule isn't terrible (ALA and NEB are tough non-conf games, but could kick start a big season for the Hokies). They won't lose more than 1 in ACC play, so I'll say (10-2).
#2 GT PR - 7.5
People, including myself, were very skeptical last year with the Paul Johnson hiring. "Look at me now, look at me now..." I think everyone is on board for 2009. He went 9-3 with a team that had minimal talent and a complete 180 system change on offense...imagine what this guy could do with some of his own players and an upgrade in talent...scary. Nesbitt is back at QB, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back, year 2 of the Triple option attack....all this means another great year for Tech. The scheulde is not the easiest (at MIA, at FSU) so I'll say they finish just behind VT, who they'll probably beat head to head. (9-3).
#3 MIAMI PR - 7
The Miami Kobows, I mean Hurricanes might finally climbing there way back to respectability. I know 3rd in the division isn't quite what they have in mind, but they are getting back to prominance...slowly. Harris will be the full-time QB, showed flashes of greatness last season. 3 OL return, but the talent is outstanding. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well. It's only Shannon's 3rd year (doesn't it seem longer?) but he's got new coordinators on each side of the ball again this year. Whipple is the new OC from the Eagles, not sure how this will play out. Lovett is the new DC from the Tar Heels - I like that hire. Overall, the team is getting older, the great recruits are starting to play up to their potential and both units should improve...but not enough to get over the hump of VT and GT. How about this to open the season: at FSU, bye, GT, at VT, OK...nobody has a tougher stretch to open the year. If they can go .500 through that stretch they could win the conference...but I think they might lose them all. New systems on both sides typically struggle early in the year, so to open with your 4 biggest games all in a row is a bad sign for the U. (8-4) is my prediction simply because of the brutal schedule.
#4 NC PR - 6.5
The Heels are another up and comer, but this division is too stacked for them to make a lot of progress this season. Yates is back at QB, only 2 OL return...offense should be about the same. 6 of the front 7 are back on D, which should make the D even stronger than the 20 ppg they allowed last season. The schedule is a little difficult so I'm going with (7-5).
#5 VIRGINIA PR - 6.5
Never, ever, ever underestimate Al Groh. Seriously, I thought this was going to be one of the worst teams ever last season and he pulled them together to go 5-7 while only scoring 16 ppg! Ridiculous. Sewell returns at QB, and 4 OL are back - they have to be better than 16 ppg, right? The D might not be as good this year, 3 of the front 7 are back - they also have new OC and a new DC. Brandon comes from BGSU to run the offense, like I said, it can't be any worse. Trott comes from within to run the defense with Groh. I'll say they score a few more, give up a few more and end a little better than 2008...(6-6).
#6 DUKE PR - 5.5
This team has permanently cemented this #6 position for the Miami Division since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, and I don't really see that changing any time soon. I have to admit, David Cutcliffe did a helluva job in his 1st year here - so maybe there's a glimmer of hope. They went 4-8 and had a lot of near misses, which gave them a PR of 6.5 for last year (same as the Gophers). But that team had a ton of experience, which is now all gone. Lewis does return as the Sr. leader at QB...but that's about it. 2OL, 2DL, 1LB are all the other players that come back...not so good for the Dookies. I think the offense will break the 20 ppg barrier for the first time in a long time, because Cutcliffe is a offensive guru. The D will probably be a trainwreck, and get back to the 30 ppg allowed range that the Devils are used to. I say they drop a bit from last year, but Cutcliffe has this thing moving the right direction...(4-8).
So I'm calling for 8 of the 12 to be bowl eligible - not necessarily any elite teams, but it will be crazy competitve once again just like 2008.
VT vs. FSU in the championship game could be a great one. It all comes down to the QB's in this one, which guy will show up and emerge as a team leader for 2009...I like VT.
That's all I got for today...4 of the Big 6 down, 2 to go. Then we get into the nitty gritty with the always popular non-BCS conferences...fun times.
Before I close, I have to comment on the Jewel Hampton situation and the bizarro world of Hogeye football. So reports circulate that the guy hrt his knee - possibly out for the year, possibly missing a few games, possibly nothing at all. He had an MRI on Monday, and still nobody knows anything or isn't telling anyone. WHY?!? Does Cap. Kirk think something is going to change or letting the cat out of the bag that he is or isn't going to play this year is going to have any kind of advantage for their opponents? The best was the report in the Des Moines paper stating that when they went to Hampton's apartment to ask him he ran up the stairs to answer the door, so he must be okay. Well, for all the doctors in Iowa, if the report is correct that he tore his ACL he should have no problem running up the stairs...but see what happens when he tries to shuffle sideways or move laterally...his leg might fall off. I just think it's so ridiculous that this injury has been confirmed that it happened last week, but it's almost been an entire week and they still don't knwo exactly what's wrong with the guy? God I hate Iowa.
I never am one to hope for injuries, but I am hoping this one is true. That eliminates the only sure thing in their backfield and leaves more pressure on Stanzi. If he would go down early this year, the dillusional B10 title dreams of the Hogeyes will quickly turn to (6-6) or worse. These are the kind of things I hope for in 2009.
As always, let me know what you think - KOBS are the Cane's gonna make it happen this year? JG will the Noles be in the National Title picture? When they meet in week 1 will they combine for more than 20 points?!?!
Thursday, July 2, 2009
BIG 12 Preview - 2009
Alright - I'm starting to pick up the pace on these preveiws, 2 in one week!
Let's start with the good half...the south.
#1 TEXAS PR - 10.5
The Horns are loaded for a run in 2009. McCoy is back, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back on D. They should make a run very similar to last year, and maybe get into the title game in 2009. OK and at OKST are the only challenges all year long...(12-0).
#2 OKLAHOMA PR - 9.5
Last year this offense was ridiculous...54 ppg! I don't think this can happen again. Bradford is back, but only 1 OL returns. The defense allowed 25 ppg in 2008, very poor showing for a typically elite defense. The entire front 7 returns in 2009, so this unit should see better numbers. Overall I'll put the Sooners at (11-1).
#3 OKLAHOMA ST PR - 8.5
The Cowboys surprised a lot of us last year, and should have another nice season on tap for 2009. Robinson is back at QB as a senior, and 3 OL return to a nice group. The D brings back 5 of the front 7, and has elite talent on the DL and LB. A new DC is in town in Young who was with Miami in 2008. Overall, I'll say this team has another season just like last year...it's tough to make a big jump when you have 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation in your half of the conference! They lose the 2 big conference games, and likely drop one to GEO in week 1...(9-3).
#4 TEXAS TECH PR - 6.5
Everything fell right for this crew in 2008, but I don't think a repeat performance is coming in 2009. A new QB, Potts, will be plugged into the crazy pirate's offense this season. Only 2 OL also return, but the offense will continue to score points even though it will be down slightly from 2008. 5 of the front 7 return on D. A nice DL but not an elite LB core will probably keep this defense fairly stable to last year. I have 4 for sure losses on the schedule, with 4 other toss-ups. I'll put this group at (7-5) due to lack of experience.
#5 TEXAS A&M PR - 6.5
Kind of s sleeper here with the Aggies being on the cusp of bowl eligibility after last year's disaster season. Johnson is a legit QB and 5 OL are back to improve the 25 ppg they scored in 2008. The D is sketchy because they only bring back 3 of the front 7 and only 1 DL. But it's Sherman's 2nd season, the system will work a little better than last year, and they shouldn't be a -10 in TO again. I like them to make a bowl game at (7-5).
#6 BAYLOR PR - 6
Someone has to be picked last in this division, and let's face it...Baylor is still a bad team. After a surprisingly good 4-8 in 2008, I think expectations are high for this year. Mainly because Robert Griffin returns as a soph at QB. 3 OL are also back for year 2 of Art Briles wide open attack. 5 of the front 7 are back on a D that kept the ppg under 30 for the first time in quite a while. I think they have a very similar year simply because the scheulde is such a meat-grinder for this team. 4 wins is likely, maybe 5 at the most...(4-8).
Now for the worst division in BCS football...the B12 North.
#1 NEBRASKA PR - 7.5
Bo Pelini is a good coach - I was on his side for the job with my favorite team, but instead he went to one of the teams I really hate. This year he'll be breaking in a new QB, Lee. 3 OL return, and this unit should be strong. Only 3 of the front 7 return, but the DL is elite. Bottom line, the offense takes a step back, but the defense continues to improve and this team wins the North with a cupcake schedule (10-2).
#2 KANSAS PR - 6.5
The Jayhawks took a giant step backward in 2008 after their magical 2007 run. This year should be somewhere in between. Reesing is back as a senior at QB - I really like this guy. Only 2 OL return, which scares me a bit. 3 DL return but none of the LB's are back. I think they continue to play shoot-out football this year and end up right around (8-4).
#3 MIZZOU PR - 6
The Chase Daniel era is over, and this team should fall off a bit. But the division is so bad that they will still finish 3rd! Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes over as the QB. 3 OL return on offense, this should keep things from collapsing completely. Only 3 of the front 7 return on defense, but the LB core is solid. New OC and a new DC also change things up a bit. Both were promoted from within, so the scheme shift shouldn't be too drastic, but the offense will not score 43 ppg again. I'll say barely a bowl team at (6-6)
#4 COLORADO PR - 5.5
Time to produce for Dan Hawkins...it's year 4 and the honeymoon is over. This club was a -9 ptdiff in 2008 and only managed 20 ppg. Cody, coach's son, Hawkins is back at QB for his Junior year. 4 OL return up front for what appears to be a very strong group. The offense has to be better, so I'll call for them to at least be average. Zero DL are back, and 2 LB return - but the defense should be about the same to slightly down. A new OC also takes over - Kiesau was promoted from within, and it could only help this anemic unit. I'll say that they come up short again at (5-7).
#5 IOWA STATE PR - 5
The Cyclones welcome in another new coach in Paul Rhoads from AUB. Arnaud returns at QB, and 4 OL are back. This team should be able to score points in the defense optional B12. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, this group was terrible last year and will likely be terrible again. Rhoads hired Herman from Rice as his OC, so the wide open system should help light up the scoreboard in Ames, and the new DC is Burnham from USF - he can't do any worse! Overall, another tough transition year for the 'Clones (5-7) - I'll call for a +3 in the win column...let's hope one of those comes in Week 2 vs. the hated in-state rivals!
#6 KANSAS STATE PR - 5
Ron Prince is out and the new guy is the old guy...Bill Snyder is back. The cupboard is less than bare right now for this club. New QB, 3 OL back...but when your QB was Josh Freeman you are sure to be down a notch this season. The defense was awful in 2008...again. 5 of the front 7 return, but I don't think there is a ton of talent there. 2 new CO-DC's are on board to try and right the ship, but I don't think it happens this year. I see a couple of for sure wins, and maybe 1-2 more...(4-8).
There we go. 3 conferences down...a lot to go! In the title game I like TEXAS to beat NEBRASKA by about 3 TD's...basically whoever wins on the always exciting VEGAS WEEK SHOWDOWN in DALLAS should run away with the B12 title and find a spot in the Championship Game.
Have a good long weekend everyone - I'll return with the ACC breakdown next week.
Let's start with the good half...the south.
#1 TEXAS PR - 10.5
The Horns are loaded for a run in 2009. McCoy is back, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back on D. They should make a run very similar to last year, and maybe get into the title game in 2009. OK and at OKST are the only challenges all year long...(12-0).
#2 OKLAHOMA PR - 9.5
Last year this offense was ridiculous...54 ppg! I don't think this can happen again. Bradford is back, but only 1 OL returns. The defense allowed 25 ppg in 2008, very poor showing for a typically elite defense. The entire front 7 returns in 2009, so this unit should see better numbers. Overall I'll put the Sooners at (11-1).
#3 OKLAHOMA ST PR - 8.5
The Cowboys surprised a lot of us last year, and should have another nice season on tap for 2009. Robinson is back at QB as a senior, and 3 OL return to a nice group. The D brings back 5 of the front 7, and has elite talent on the DL and LB. A new DC is in town in Young who was with Miami in 2008. Overall, I'll say this team has another season just like last year...it's tough to make a big jump when you have 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation in your half of the conference! They lose the 2 big conference games, and likely drop one to GEO in week 1...(9-3).
#4 TEXAS TECH PR - 6.5
Everything fell right for this crew in 2008, but I don't think a repeat performance is coming in 2009. A new QB, Potts, will be plugged into the crazy pirate's offense this season. Only 2 OL also return, but the offense will continue to score points even though it will be down slightly from 2008. 5 of the front 7 return on D. A nice DL but not an elite LB core will probably keep this defense fairly stable to last year. I have 4 for sure losses on the schedule, with 4 other toss-ups. I'll put this group at (7-5) due to lack of experience.
#5 TEXAS A&M PR - 6.5
Kind of s sleeper here with the Aggies being on the cusp of bowl eligibility after last year's disaster season. Johnson is a legit QB and 5 OL are back to improve the 25 ppg they scored in 2008. The D is sketchy because they only bring back 3 of the front 7 and only 1 DL. But it's Sherman's 2nd season, the system will work a little better than last year, and they shouldn't be a -10 in TO again. I like them to make a bowl game at (7-5).
#6 BAYLOR PR - 6
Someone has to be picked last in this division, and let's face it...Baylor is still a bad team. After a surprisingly good 4-8 in 2008, I think expectations are high for this year. Mainly because Robert Griffin returns as a soph at QB. 3 OL are also back for year 2 of Art Briles wide open attack. 5 of the front 7 are back on a D that kept the ppg under 30 for the first time in quite a while. I think they have a very similar year simply because the scheulde is such a meat-grinder for this team. 4 wins is likely, maybe 5 at the most...(4-8).
Now for the worst division in BCS football...the B12 North.
#1 NEBRASKA PR - 7.5
Bo Pelini is a good coach - I was on his side for the job with my favorite team, but instead he went to one of the teams I really hate. This year he'll be breaking in a new QB, Lee. 3 OL return, and this unit should be strong. Only 3 of the front 7 return, but the DL is elite. Bottom line, the offense takes a step back, but the defense continues to improve and this team wins the North with a cupcake schedule (10-2).
#2 KANSAS PR - 6.5
The Jayhawks took a giant step backward in 2008 after their magical 2007 run. This year should be somewhere in between. Reesing is back as a senior at QB - I really like this guy. Only 2 OL return, which scares me a bit. 3 DL return but none of the LB's are back. I think they continue to play shoot-out football this year and end up right around (8-4).
#3 MIZZOU PR - 6
The Chase Daniel era is over, and this team should fall off a bit. But the division is so bad that they will still finish 3rd! Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes over as the QB. 3 OL return on offense, this should keep things from collapsing completely. Only 3 of the front 7 return on defense, but the LB core is solid. New OC and a new DC also change things up a bit. Both were promoted from within, so the scheme shift shouldn't be too drastic, but the offense will not score 43 ppg again. I'll say barely a bowl team at (6-6)
#4 COLORADO PR - 5.5
Time to produce for Dan Hawkins...it's year 4 and the honeymoon is over. This club was a -9 ptdiff in 2008 and only managed 20 ppg. Cody, coach's son, Hawkins is back at QB for his Junior year. 4 OL return up front for what appears to be a very strong group. The offense has to be better, so I'll call for them to at least be average. Zero DL are back, and 2 LB return - but the defense should be about the same to slightly down. A new OC also takes over - Kiesau was promoted from within, and it could only help this anemic unit. I'll say that they come up short again at (5-7).
#5 IOWA STATE PR - 5
The Cyclones welcome in another new coach in Paul Rhoads from AUB. Arnaud returns at QB, and 4 OL are back. This team should be able to score points in the defense optional B12. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, this group was terrible last year and will likely be terrible again. Rhoads hired Herman from Rice as his OC, so the wide open system should help light up the scoreboard in Ames, and the new DC is Burnham from USF - he can't do any worse! Overall, another tough transition year for the 'Clones (5-7) - I'll call for a +3 in the win column...let's hope one of those comes in Week 2 vs. the hated in-state rivals!
#6 KANSAS STATE PR - 5
Ron Prince is out and the new guy is the old guy...Bill Snyder is back. The cupboard is less than bare right now for this club. New QB, 3 OL back...but when your QB was Josh Freeman you are sure to be down a notch this season. The defense was awful in 2008...again. 5 of the front 7 return, but I don't think there is a ton of talent there. 2 new CO-DC's are on board to try and right the ship, but I don't think it happens this year. I see a couple of for sure wins, and maybe 1-2 more...(4-8).
There we go. 3 conferences down...a lot to go! In the title game I like TEXAS to beat NEBRASKA by about 3 TD's...basically whoever wins on the always exciting VEGAS WEEK SHOWDOWN in DALLAS should run away with the B12 title and find a spot in the Championship Game.
Have a good long weekend everyone - I'll return with the ACC breakdown next week.
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