BIG 12 Preview - 2009

Alright - I'm starting to pick up the pace on these preveiws, 2 in one week!

Let's start with the good half...the south.

#1 TEXAS PR - 10.5
The Horns are loaded for a run in 2009. McCoy is back, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back on D. They should make a run very similar to last year, and maybe get into the title game in 2009. OK and at OKST are the only challenges all year long...(12-0).

#2 OKLAHOMA PR - 9.5
Last year this offense was ridiculous...54 ppg! I don't think this can happen again. Bradford is back, but only 1 OL returns. The defense allowed 25 ppg in 2008, very poor showing for a typically elite defense. The entire front 7 returns in 2009, so this unit should see better numbers. Overall I'll put the Sooners at (11-1).

#3 OKLAHOMA ST PR - 8.5
The Cowboys surprised a lot of us last year, and should have another nice season on tap for 2009. Robinson is back at QB as a senior, and 3 OL return to a nice group. The D brings back 5 of the front 7, and has elite talent on the DL and LB. A new DC is in town in Young who was with Miami in 2008. Overall, I'll say this team has another season just like last year...it's tough to make a big jump when you have 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation in your half of the conference! They lose the 2 big conference games, and likely drop one to GEO in week 1...(9-3).

#4 TEXAS TECH PR - 6.5
Everything fell right for this crew in 2008, but I don't think a repeat performance is coming in 2009. A new QB, Potts, will be plugged into the crazy pirate's offense this season. Only 2 OL also return, but the offense will continue to score points even though it will be down slightly from 2008. 5 of the front 7 return on D. A nice DL but not an elite LB core will probably keep this defense fairly stable to last year. I have 4 for sure losses on the schedule, with 4 other toss-ups. I'll put this group at (7-5) due to lack of experience.

#5 TEXAS A&M PR - 6.5
Kind of s sleeper here with the Aggies being on the cusp of bowl eligibility after last year's disaster season. Johnson is a legit QB and 5 OL are back to improve the 25 ppg they scored in 2008. The D is sketchy because they only bring back 3 of the front 7 and only 1 DL. But it's Sherman's 2nd season, the system will work a little better than last year, and they shouldn't be a -10 in TO again. I like them to make a bowl game at (7-5).

#6 BAYLOR PR - 6
Someone has to be picked last in this division, and let's face it...Baylor is still a bad team. After a surprisingly good 4-8 in 2008, I think expectations are high for this year. Mainly because Robert Griffin returns as a soph at QB. 3 OL are also back for year 2 of Art Briles wide open attack. 5 of the front 7 are back on a D that kept the ppg under 30 for the first time in quite a while. I think they have a very similar year simply because the scheulde is such a meat-grinder for this team. 4 wins is likely, maybe 5 at the most...(4-8).

Now for the worst division in BCS football...the B12 North.

#1 NEBRASKA PR - 7.5
Bo Pelini is a good coach - I was on his side for the job with my favorite team, but instead he went to one of the teams I really hate. This year he'll be breaking in a new QB, Lee. 3 OL return, and this unit should be strong. Only 3 of the front 7 return, but the DL is elite. Bottom line, the offense takes a step back, but the defense continues to improve and this team wins the North with a cupcake schedule (10-2).

#2 KANSAS PR - 6.5
The Jayhawks took a giant step backward in 2008 after their magical 2007 run. This year should be somewhere in between. Reesing is back as a senior at QB - I really like this guy. Only 2 OL return, which scares me a bit. 3 DL return but none of the LB's are back. I think they continue to play shoot-out football this year and end up right around (8-4).

#3 MIZZOU PR - 6
The Chase Daniel era is over, and this team should fall off a bit. But the division is so bad that they will still finish 3rd! Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes over as the QB. 3 OL return on offense, this should keep things from collapsing completely. Only 3 of the front 7 return on defense, but the LB core is solid. New OC and a new DC also change things up a bit. Both were promoted from within, so the scheme shift shouldn't be too drastic, but the offense will not score 43 ppg again. I'll say barely a bowl team at (6-6)

#4 COLORADO PR - 5.5
Time to produce for Dan Hawkins...it's year 4 and the honeymoon is over. This club was a -9 ptdiff in 2008 and only managed 20 ppg. Cody, coach's son, Hawkins is back at QB for his Junior year. 4 OL return up front for what appears to be a very strong group. The offense has to be better, so I'll call for them to at least be average. Zero DL are back, and 2 LB return - but the defense should be about the same to slightly down. A new OC also takes over - Kiesau was promoted from within, and it could only help this anemic unit. I'll say that they come up short again at (5-7).

#5 IOWA STATE PR - 5
The Cyclones welcome in another new coach in Paul Rhoads from AUB. Arnaud returns at QB, and 4 OL are back. This team should be able to score points in the defense optional B12. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, this group was terrible last year and will likely be terrible again. Rhoads hired Herman from Rice as his OC, so the wide open system should help light up the scoreboard in Ames, and the new DC is Burnham from USF - he can't do any worse! Overall, another tough transition year for the 'Clones (5-7) - I'll call for a +3 in the win column...let's hope one of those comes in Week 2 vs. the hated in-state rivals!

#6 KANSAS STATE PR - 5
Ron Prince is out and the new guy is the old guy...Bill Snyder is back. The cupboard is less than bare right now for this club. New QB, 3 OL back...but when your QB was Josh Freeman you are sure to be down a notch this season. The defense was awful in 2008...again. 5 of the front 7 return, but I don't think there is a ton of talent there. 2 new CO-DC's are on board to try and right the ship, but I don't think it happens this year. I see a couple of for sure wins, and maybe 1-2 more...(4-8).


There we go. 3 conferences down...a lot to go! In the title game I like TEXAS to beat NEBRASKA by about 3 TD's...basically whoever wins on the always exciting VEGAS WEEK SHOWDOWN in DALLAS should run away with the B12 title and find a spot in the Championship Game.

Have a good long weekend everyone - I'll return with the ACC breakdown next week.