Pac-10 (USC+9) Preview 2009

Is there any question about the Pac-1o this year? I've heard the Cal hype, I know UCLA is improving, the Ducks and Beavers are always fun too...but seriously, no one touches USC - they never do.

If I was forced to pick a #2 favorite team in NCAA football, this club would be it. How can you not love Pete Carroll and the program they run out there?!? I know, it's fun to hate a dynasty - I do in most cases (Cowboys, Yankees, Lakers)...but I simply cannot hate this team. So if anyone tries to talk you into a different pick for the P10 champ, take their money and run. USC has only won at least 11 games each of the last 7 years...yep, 7 years in a row at 11+...wow. Carroll started his run as a Trojan at 2-5...since then he's a decent 86-10. It doesn't matter if there is coaching turnover or huge player losses - nothing will stop this machine anytime soon.

With that - let's start at the top...the Trojans

#1 USC PR-9.5
Although they will likely be down a bit from last year, you can never count this team out of the Nat'l title hunt. They have 3 all-world QB's competing to run the show (maybe down to 2 right now So-Corp, tFr-Barkley). 5 OL return to a dominant unit from LY, this should help make up for any drop-off they might see at QB becaus you know they have skill players by the bunches just waiting for their turn to shine in front of the Song girls. The D suffers some giant losses from a record setting unit of 2008. How ridiculous are these numbers: they gave up 7.8 ppg in the regular season - those are HS crazy numbers. Pitched 4 shutouts last year and allowed more than 10 points only 2 times in 12 games. Good god - how do you not win a Nat'l title with a defense like that? Well, the Pac-10 really doesn't get a ton of respect, so losing a game in conference, which has been the Trojans achilles heel the last few years, kills their hopes of a Nat'l title. Anyway, only one of the front 7 is back...but they reload and they do it fast. Both the DL and LB are high on the talent scale, so they will be down a bit - but who wouldn't after only allowing 8 ppg last year! They also have the unique situation of replacing both the OC and DC this season. Both come from within (another genius part of Carroll's co-coordinator system) so I don't think this will be an issue. At Cal and at OHIOST appear to be the only potential land mines on the slate, but you know they will likely lose a bad one (STAN07, OREST08) and be out of the hunt. Regardless, my numbers say (12-0) so I'll go with it!

#2 CAL PR-9
If Cal was ever going to do it, this is probably their best shot. I had them rated as a 9 in 2008 when they went 8-4, which I thought was a little high, but not after I looked at the numbers. A +13 ptdiff looks pretty good in a conference like the P10. This year, Kevin Riley returns at QB. He's a junior, but the jury is still out on this guy. 3 OL return...but most importantly Jahvid Best is back. I was watching a replay of the game with Stanford last night from 2008, and Best might be the fastest player I've seen in quite a long time...I'm getting more frightened by the day of this guy at TCF in September. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, they should be a little worse than last year but not by much. They also have another new OC, which seems to be Teford's MO at Cal - Ludwig comes from Utah to take over the offense...but seriously people, why doesn't Tedford, a nototrious control freak, just take the job himself and stop flying through a new OC every year. This shouldn't make much of a difference for the 09 Bears. The problem for Cal is that they don't play every game at home...1-4 on the road last year (which is why I like the Gophers' chances!). Sadly, they have road games scheduled again this year, so I think they lose one or two of them and they lose to USC...(10-2).

#3 UCLA - PR 7.5
Year 2 of the Neuheisel era should be much better than year 1. That's how he rolls, no matter what you think of the guy he does turn programs around and wins games...at least temporarily. They are planning to go with Prince, a freshman, at QB. But it can't get any worse than the crap they threw out there in 2008. 4 OL return from a decent group - not ultra-talented, but serviceable. 5 of the front 7 are back on D...really solid DL group. Bullough will take over the D, he was promoted from within when Dewayne Walker left for the NM head job. Walker was good, but his group allowed 29 ppg last year - so they will be better. They were also a -10 in TO last year, this should hopefully improve. I have them right around (8-4).

#4 OREGON ST - PR 7
This sneaky little club always finds a way to finish top 3, so I'm kind of hesitant to put them below UCLA...but here's why I did. Only 3 OL return to an average group, and only 3 of the front 7 are back on D. This and their brutal road schedule (USC, CAL, ORE, ASU) mean a little more trouble than expected for the Beavers...(7-5).

That's the first tier - the next 4 could go in any order...take your pick:

#5 OREGON - PR 6.5
Oregon lost a lot, including their head coach, after last season. The Belotti exit will be the biggest blow in my opinion. Masoli looked great at QB late in the year, but only 1 OL is back. Only 3 of the front 7 are back on D. Chip Kelly takes over as the coach - but I think it's a big drop-off, the hand-picked successor thing really hasn't always worked out great in the past (Becky! or wait, that's working out wonderful for our favorite squad :)) and I don't like Kelly's chances. His talent is down, but he will be under fire early with a (6-6) 2009 season.

#6 ARIZONA - PR 6.5
The Cats finally turned the corner a little last year. Sadly, Tuitama finally graduated, and they will be breaking in a new QB. Only 2 OL are back - the offense could be in for a very large drop off from their 37 ppg in 2008. 5 of the front 7 are back - 4 on the DL. The slate isn't great with almost all of their tough games on the road (USC, CAL, OREST, ASU, and IOWA in non-conf). Bottom line...I'll say back to the bowls but barely (6-6).

#7 STANFORD - PR 6.5
You have to be impressed with the Jim Harbaugh era thus far. He has recruited well, pulled off a couple of large upsets, and actually made Stanford a factor in the P10 once again. They will be starting a freshman at QB this year, but he's highly touted so you have to expect some good things to come in 2009. 3 OL return to what appears to be a Top 25 caliber OL. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well - this unit should improve based on experience alone. A very tough schedule sits in front of the Cardinal with 5 of their home games being toss-ups...too much to overcome and I'll keep them at (5-7).

#8 ARIZONA ST - PR 6.5
Finally a new QB takes over for the Devils. Sophomore Szakacsy takes the reins of Erickson's offense, which only prodcued 23 ppg in 2008. 4 OL are back, but the unit isn't very good and 4 of the front 7 are back on D - always a strength in Tempe. I think this is a very similar team to last year and I'll keep them out of the bowl picture at (5-7).

#9 WASHINGTON - PR 6
Steve Sarkisian steps in for year 1 with a team coming off a complete disaster of a year at 0-12. Why 0-12, pick your reason: scored 13 ppg and allowed 39 ppg, -17 in TO, lost starting QB for the year during game 3, had Ty Willingham as their coach. All valid reasons to expect something terrible. 2009 should be much better. Locker should be healthy, and that will get them a couple of wins by itself. The problem is the schedule...it's hard to put their talent above anybody in the league besides WASU, so I think you can only guarantee one conference win. The out of conf slate is BRUTAL...LSU, Notre Dame, IDAHO...I think they can handle the Vandals, but the other 2 could be ugly. So there it is...(2-10) - a big improvement from 0-12 I guess. This shouldn't be a bad team, but it won't look like it in their record.

#10 WASU - PR 4
Paul Wulff is not a D1 coach. This was proven with the trainwreck of 2008 at 2-10. Check out these numbers 13 ppg allowed 44 ppg, -25 in TO yep they averaged a -2 every week! It doesn't matter what is returning for this team - Wulff is terrible. I will set this club in stone at the #10 spot for the forseeable future as long as Wulff is running the show. They might handle SMU, but even that is in doubt...I think this club is awful (0-12).

There it is. Only one of the Big 6 to go (and really, can we even include the Big Least in the 6 BCS conferences any longer?). After that we'll start flying through the lesser known teams and get on to some more opinion pieces.

Like always - please post your thoughts and/or comments on what's happening.

Well, off to hit some balls in preparation for the big golf outings coming up - have a good rest of the week.

Wait - one last thought. I'm trying to figure out the best quick way for us all to keep in touch during the week/weekend once the season starts. Here are my thoughts - I know some of you are on Facebook already, I'm not...but I might be willing to break down and do it if we think it's the most efficient. Otherwise, I was thinking Twitter maybe? I know, kind of way too early for Tree to be adopting this (and yes, that was 3rd person speak...you're welcome) but it might be pretty slick. You can have it sent to your phone and it would be easier than having to sit at your computer to stay in touch. I just end up spending a fortune in texting on Saturdays throughout the year, so I'm trying to find a more optimal way to make this work. Any other ideas - let me know, but I think it would be fun for everyone to have an account on one of these or both of these services to allow us to interact and talk smack throughout the week/weekend slate of games.

Let me know what you think.

Closing with maybe my all-time fav PJ tune...top 5 at least - "Off he goes"

and now i rub my eyes, for he has returned
seems my preconceptions are what should have been burned
for he still smiles... and he's still strong
nothing's changed, but the surrounding bullshit that has grown
and now he's home
and we're laughing like we always did
my same old, same old friend
until a quarter-to-ten
i saw the strain creep in
he seems distracted and i know just what is gonna happen next
before his first step
he's off again