I didn't have the energy to write this up last night, so sorry for over-promising and under-delivering. After 2 early mornings with the kids, painting our dining room, and back to back nights of booze I was completely spent after watching the Super Bowl. It was a classic, not because of the quality of play, which I thought was kind of sub-par, but because it featured a couple of memorable moments between 2 major teams and came down to the last play.
So the NYG win & cover made it a race bewteen JR, TN, and GT. TN and GT both needed to beat me by 3 in the props to win outright. It didn't happen. I hit 8 of 10 on my props, and took the overall post-season title. This continues the Rollins dominance of post-season football as G-Reg won last year's post-season and I won in 2009-10.
Props - there was no prize awarded, but I hit 8 of 10, which was the best score. JG had 5, AW had 5, GR hit 2, MH hit 7, MC hit 1, SS had 5, RO had 4, TN had 4, MT had 6, GT had 7, CP had 5, JH had 6, and MO had 6. Overall a pretty strong prop performance by most of us.
Here are the final post-season standings:
POST-SEASON W
JR 73
GT 70
TN 67
MH 62
MT 61
SS 54
CP 54
AW 51
MC 51
GR 49
MO 48
RO 46
MR 41
JG 39
JH 37
LW 33
MS 0
Once again, thanks to all of you for a great year. Hope to see you all on the 17th of March to collect your payday and potentially gamble it all away watching March Madness and having cocktails in Chanhassen.
Here's the final cash tally for everyone for the Football Challenge 2011-12:
MH - $100
MR - $100
RO - skunked
SS - $450
TN - $150
CP - skunked
LW - skunked
MO - $50
JR - $300
MC - skunked
MT - $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
GR - $200
AW - $50
JH - $50
The 4 of you who were skunked and have nothing to collect should still show up as Steve and I owe you each a cocktail. There has to be a consolation prize of some sort, right?
Monday, February 6, 2012
Friday, February 3, 2012
Super Bowl Preview - End of Football Challenge 2011-12
It's a sad time of the year, all you'll get from me going forward for the next 7-8 months is Hawkeye/Vadger bashing and commentaries on off-season incidents. Well, that's not 100% true. We are approaching golf season, and picking the majors, which I hope you all participate in this year. And some March Madness action (where my NCAA Hoops record is about double my college football win %!!). But nonetheless, another season comes to a close and it sucks. But on the bright side you each have 8 months to figure out what the hell happened and how you can get better (or worse) next season. I'll stay in touch through the FC and we'll start planning for next year. But more on that after we're done...let's get to the big game!!
So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...
It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.
NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH
Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...
JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks
TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.
JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks
With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.
TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:
TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.
GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.
Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER
TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.
If NE WINS and COVERS...
Here is what the board would look like pre-props:
POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55
SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.
GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.
AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.
JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.
If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.
Here are the picks
JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U
TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O
GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O
SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O
CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U
GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O
AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U
MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U
MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U
RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U
MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O
JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O
MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U
JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U
Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)
I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.
It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!
So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...
It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.
NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH
Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...
JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks
TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.
JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks
With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.
TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:
TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.
GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.
Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER
TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.
If NE WINS and COVERS...
Here is what the board would look like pre-props:
POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55
SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.
GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.
AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.
JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.
If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.
Here are the picks
JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U
TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O
GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O
SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O
CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U
GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O
AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U
MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U
MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U
RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U
MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O
JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O
MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U
JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U
Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)
I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.
It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Need Picks from...
Still waiting on Super Bowl pick and props from these guys:
ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER
Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.
Thanks.
ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER
Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.
Thanks.
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