Week 6 Preview

Week 6 is loaded with a great slate of NCAA games and the first full round of bye weeks in the NFL. The FC group is coming off our best week of the year, so let's see if we keep the momentum going.

CONSENSUS:
An astounding 10-5 last week, certainly a huge turnaround from our usual performance in this area. We're either getting smarter or luckier...not sure which is better.

This week's 15 are as follows:
BAL, CHI, PIT, GB, NYG, NO, NW, ATL, GEO, UCLA, DEN, LSU, MICH, OHIOST, STL

NCAA:
Shocking, but I went 7-3 in my preview picks again last week, including nailing the OHIOST-MSU score right on the nuts. That's like 4 weeks in a row at 7-3, not a bad way to make money if you do it right. I feel like my time is running out however, and Vegas is still 2 weeks away. We'll see...here are my picks in the top 10 games for this week:

NW AT PSU
I really don't think NW is that great of a team, and this game will be a huge test for them even though PSU is down this season. PSU destroyed ILL last week, now they play at home in a big game...could be interesting. For being undefeated NW has some very average numbers, but they've won in typical NW fashion. This week I think they find a way once again to sneak out with an emotional close win before coming to Dinkytown next weekend. NW 22-21.

VT AT NC
VT was a pretty popular ACC choice this preseason, but they really have been a disappointment. Even their D, which is typically great, looks pedestrian this year. NC struggled a lot out of the gate, but has since gotten healthy and started to roll a little bit. I think NC is better in all facets and wins this one easily...27-10.

AZ AT STAN
I've been a believer in AZ for the last few weeks, not really sure why, but they've been on my short list a lot lately. I think most are down on STAN based on the WASH loss, but I think they were a little overrated to begin with. STAN has struggled at times with moving the ball, but I don't expect the Zona D to stop them. Especially in a rebound game off a bad loss, I think STAN will come out running it and won't be stopped. AZ, as always, will score some points, but I don't think they keep up. STAN wins 41-17.

LSU AT FLA
Very big games in the SEC on Saturday, and this is the first one. The Tigers man-handled the Gators last year who were starting a true freshman QB in his first action. At LSU is not the ideal spot to make your college debut as a QB! From what I've seen this year from Muschamp and the Gators, I think they are a very different team and may be seeking revenge against the Grass Eater in the swamp this week. The Gators are also coming in off a bye, so 2 weeks to prepare...hmmmm. LSU has been great on D, but ineffective on offense the last couple of weeks. The new QB is struggling to adjust, and I don't think the Gator D will give too much on Saturday. Getting 2.5 at home in a big game with revenge on their mind?!? Yep, I'm calling for the Gators to pull the upset...FLA 20-9.

OK AT TT
Is TT for real and is OK really not very good? I think both of those will be answered this week. I'm not sure I believe in TT, their offense always scores points but I don't think their D will finish anywhere near the #1 ranking they have right now. OK has looked awful so far, but come on, it's OK right...they should be fine. Also, I think they'll be playing with a revenge angle against the TT team that ended their big home win streak last year. My numbers are calling for a TT win by a FG, but I can't go with that. I'll say OK wins 44-31.

MICH AT PUR
I've heard no less than 3 people this week talking/writing about how PUR might be the B1G Champs this year. I think it's time to simmer down nah on that one. PUR still looks very average at best, they are playing with confidence now but after that first loss it will crumble like it always has under Danny Hope. MICH has had a very tough early schedule, but it's probably time for them to start figuring things out. Robinson avoids the turnovers and runs for 2 score in a MICH win that starts the annual PUR collapse...MICH 34-27.

WV AT TEX
This is the toughest call of the week for me. WV is pretty flawless on offense, which could be enough for them to win this one. TEX hasn't exactly been great on D this year and the offense has been known to struggle in the past even though the numbers are nice this year. Both D's thrive off the turnovers at this point, but I probably give the nod to TEX in the long run. I think it will be close, so I'll take the points at Crazy Holgo to cover and lose a tight one...TEX 31-28.

GEO AT SC
I nearly included this one on my list, but didn't. I really was surprised by the way GEO struggled last week with TEN. I think they could be a little overrated based on their strong offense this season. SC has played great since that early scare with VANDY. This one comes down to defense for me, which always seems to be the case in the SEC. SC has the superior D and home field in a night game against an offense missing their top WR and off a shaky turnover laced performance last week. I take Spurrier to win and cover...19-13.

MIAMI AT ND
This game is actually being played at Soldier's Field in Chicago, but basically a home game for ND. Miami is coming off of 2 emotional wins in a row, and now they go to a chilly Chicago for an October game. ND is rolling right now, and living off their defense, while Miami plays no D and scores a bunch of points. I hate giving the large number with ND, but I really think they make it work this week and won't have a problem scoring against this horrible Miami D. Irish win and cover 40-21.

NEB AT OHIOST
A huge clash in the B1G between two teams both coming off big wins last week. On paper, this line looks exactly right to me. NEB has better numbers on both sides of the ball, but the X-factor may be Uncle Rico against Urban's D. I think the Buckeyes will be jacked for this game and force a couple bad turnovers to come out on top 27-23.

NFL
Last week I went 12-3 in the preview picks, tied for the win in this pool and won 2 other pick'ems...so it was a pretty good week. Once again, karma has to catch up to me and change this back...but I'm rolling with it while I can. Here's what I'm thinking for this week:

ARI-STL: Obviously, this one is almost over, I had STL in the pool and loved them to win this one. ARI is not for real, no offense gets you nowhere in the NFL.
PHI-PIT: Another game I love. PHI has burned me 2-3 times this year, so I'm going against them with a PIT team off the bye. PHI won a must have game last week, so I don't think they'll bring much to this one.
MIA-CIN: I kind of don't think this MIA team is half bad. Getting more than a FG in this game seems high to me, so I'll go Fins on the road with the Bengals off 2 blowout wins in a row.
GB-IND: Pack should have lost last week, they won't lose this week...but I like IND to cover the number. I really don't think this GB club is that great this season.
CLE-NYG: CLE is so terrible I think I have to go NYG.
ATL-WAS: I'm still not sure if ATL is as great as people think. This will be a tough road trip, so I'm going to go with RG3 again this week and expect the Skins to win outright.
BAL-KC: BAL rolls very easily in this one and crushes KC.
SEA-CAR: I think CAR is a mess, and with a bye coming next week I think they lay another egg against a better than expected SEA team and lose this one.
CHI-JAC: I like betting against big MNF winners on the road the next week...but JAC is pretty awful. However, out of principal, I will take JAC.
TEN-MIN: Major trap game for Purple team. They will not cover this number and I'm hoping they just do enough to win it.
BUF-SF: I think I'm in the minority here, but I kind of think BUF will give the 49ers a game in this one. I'll take Bills and points.
DEN-NE: Brady found it last week, DEN on the road is still not very impressive...NE rolls.
SD-NO: 0-5 would end the season for NO. SD on the road off a big division win will be sleep walking. NO gets win number one by a good margin.
HOU-NYJ: Tough call in this one. It seems like a perfect spot for the NYJ to step up and show people they are indeed an NFL team and play really well when you least expect it. HOU has cruised so far and coming into a seemingly easy road game I think they might lay off the gas a bit. I think it's close for a half, but the Jets really don't have anything or anyone that can score points...so I'll take HOU.

The sting from the Maroon and Gold loss last week has kind of worn off. It was a frustrating game, but a young team on the road needs to start well to have the confidence...and they didn't. MN got down early and it snowballed from there. No worries, I really like our chances to still be a bowl team and get a win next week over NW.

Sorry for the lack of creativity this week on the preview, on a time crunch. We have 6 kindergarteners sleeping over tomorrow night for my daughter's birthday party, so there's a little prep work to be done...according to my wife at least.

Good Luck this weekend.