CONSENSUS:
Back to reality with a 6-9 week again. We are well below .500 for the year, which just continues to prove the point that if everyone likes one side in a game you should run away and pick the other side. Here's our card for this week:
PIT(L),MIN, CIN, NE, DEN, WIS, BAL, SF, STAN, FLA, OHIOST, ATL, TB, MSU, DET
Gophers and NW both have 7 backers this week - tied with the Lions for 15th most popular.
NCAA
Last week I didn't go 7-3 like I did the previous 4 weeks...I went 8-2. Seriously, this is a crazy run that I really want to last for 2 more weekend (VEGAS next weekend). Let's see what happens.
Gentlemen, you are witnessing history for the FC this week, as for the 1st time in my life I am picking the Hawkeyes this week. I'm having a hard time with it myself, but it looks like one of the best 3-4 picks on the board in the NCAA game this week. Iowa actually has a more potent offense than Sparty and is playing with a lot of good angles this week. ioWAA is off a bye and in a revenge spot after the Sparty beatdown in Kinnick last year. Sparty coming off an ugly win at IU and they have already lost 2 home games after losing zero total the last 2 years. I feel terrible about this, but I think ioWAAAA wins this thing by a FG 23-20.
TEX-OK
Texas state fair weekend summed up into one little photo. This one is always a big game, no matter how bad the 2 teams are. This year, like usual, they are both pretty good. OK is coming off a big win at TT, while TEX is licking their wounds after the shootout L to WV and Holgo. It's really the 3rd big game in a row for TEX, which is never an easy thing. For that reason alone, I think I'll take the Sooners in this one, but close. OK wins 31-28.
NW-MN
No matter how much I regret the Brew years, there are some memorable nuggets that will exist out there forever. The best part is that before we played NW in one of his final games, Fitz claimed that MN was "extremely well coached" and then the guy is fired like a week later. Fitz is actually a good coach, but one thing his crew has struggled with the last few years is the hangover effect after that 1st loss. The last 3 years, after that first tough loss for NW, they have been unable to rebound the next week and have lost all of those as well. Hmmm.... NW is also a terrible team in OCT when the real games start. 0-4 last OCT is a pretty good indication of that. And this year's club is very similar to that team, actually all Fitz NW teams have been similar. I respect the hell out of them, but when you look at the results they are extremely average. Neither the offense or the defense jump off the page at you. They don't blow anyone out, and they don't get blown out. NW comes in off that hangover loss to PSU for a 2nd straight road game, while the Maroon and Gold are coming off a bad L to ioWAAA and a bye week to figure it out. Both of those are great indicators that we will see a much better performance on Saturday from Kill and company. The Gopher D, as poorly as they played in the first half at ioWAAA, is improved and will be able to do some good things against the Cats. It's also homecoming, Gray sounds like he'll play a bit, and the Gophs are getting points. Lots of good things in our favor here...so I'm going Gophers 28-17.
WIS-PUR
It's insane, but this is basically the battle for the Leaders division crown this season. How very Big 10 of us to have 2 mediocre teams deciding the fate of the division in an early OCT snoozer like this...thanks a lot Bin Laden (and OHIOST and PSU). Remember when WIS was scoring about 50-60 per game last year? I think PUR does. WIS, after losing on back to back hail mary throws last year, kept the heavy foot of Bert Bielema on the gas throughout a beat down of PUR 62-17. I'm not a PUR hype believer or a Danny Hope fan, but I honestly think that beatdown last year will play a part in PUR's motivation for this one. Also the fact that MICH came into their house last week and pretty much gave them a similar whooping...if PUR can't get motivated for this game then they can't get motivated at all. I'll Boiler Up...PUR 24-13.
KST-ISU
Steele Jantz was benched again last week, and the Clones beat TCU. He was benched last year, and the Clones beat OKST. Seeing a theme here? Steele has found a permanent home on the bench, which might give the Clones hope. KST by 7 feels a little heavy considering every game these 2 have played the last few years has been close. Clones cover...Wildcats win 35-33.
NC-MIAMI
No good pictures available for this matchup, and really...it's the ACC and nobody really cares anyway. Home team has won 10 of 12 in this series, which made me go with my original opinion of taking the Canes here by a FG 38-35.
WV-TT
The Mountaineers are the most exciting team in Amercia, I don't think there's any doubt there (average total of 87!! in their games this year). However, coming off a giant win in TEXAS last weekend, they now go to Lubbock. Not real intimidating, right? Well, I think WV could get caught in a sandwich situation letdown here with KST on deck, so I'm liking the Red Raiders to shock the world and win this one...49-44 TT.
STAN-ND
Beano Cook, #1 ND fan of all-time, died this week. I think I kind of missed him when he was relevant, but all I remeber of this guy growing up was him talking about ND and how they should go 10-1 every year. I'm not sure if he was great, but he'll be missed for the Sid like comedy he provided in his later years. So the Irish this week try to continue their great start with a big one against a STAN team that most are still trying to figure out. The number of 8 is pretty good in this one, as I think ND will play well and hold down a mediocre STAN offense. I'm not sure that ND will score many points either, however. I think it ends close to the number, but I'll take STAN to be within a TD...ND wins 21-14.
FLA-VAN
It's just so easy to make fun of the South. I'm thinking they are all still riding blow-up dolphins in the street while sipping on a little bourbon after the big win over LSU last week. Now the Gators have a final tune up before the big VEGAS Weekend game with SC next week. G-Reg's VANDY squad hit a high point last week by beating lowly MIZZOU (enjoying the SEC guys?) and now welcome in the mighty Gators in what looks like a potential trap game. However, I think the Gators have it rolling well enough to not screw up the big meeting with the 'Cocks next weekend. Gators roll...34-7.
SC-LSU
Danger, danger, danger! All of the love that SC has gained from the beatdown they gave GEO last week will likely be gone after their trip to Death Valley. Les has lost 2 games in a row 1 time, and that was with his worst LSU team he ever had. Even worse for the Ball Coach, this game is in Death Valley at night...almost a hopeless situation for SC. SC is absolutely the better team, but as we've seen, that is not always the deciding factor. The QB for LSU will make some plays, the defense will be nuts, and LSU will pull out some voodoo Death Valley magic on Saturday night. Tigers win and spoil game of the year part I (SC-FLA) for next week...LSU 19-14...you know it will be a weird number like that with 3 FG's a safety and a TD with a 2 pointer! LSU football!!
NFL
I had some issues with my NFL picks from last week and finished only 7-7, disappointing after the 12-2 run in Week 5. But life goes on, and I'm already 1-0 for this week so things are looking up.
So I've got a system for picking NFL games, and it's been pretty damn reliable the last few years. I gathered up the numbers for this week and my first game said TEN -2 over PIT. I didn't believe it, but look what happens when you don't follow your own logic. At least I had TEN with the points, but I went away from them in the pick'em assuming it wouldn't work out. Anyway, on to the next.
IND-NYJ: Loving the JETS here to win by a TD.
STL-MIA: Miami crushes. I like both these teams, but STL off a big division win will not be up for this one. Miami wins by 9.
OAK-ATL: Falcons are my suicide pick this week, although I like the Raiders to cover. ATL by 6.
DAL-BAL: Another one that made me scratch my head, but I'll go with it. I have DAL winning by 1 on the road against a BAL team that has been anything but impressive recently.
CIN-CLE: I'm torn on this one, but I'll give CLE the edge after they lost in Week 2 to CIN. CLE +2.
DET-PHI: The Eagles might be the worst best team out there. Lions had to figure some things out after 2 bad L's and a bye, so they come back ready to play and beat PHI by a FG.
KC-TB: Brady Quinn on the road with a bye next week for KC...wow, why even show up? TB by 10.
BUF-ARI: This looks like a toss up, but I'll say ARI squeaks by but doesn't cover the 5.
NE-SEA: SEA is always a tough spot to play, as we've seen this year. But I really think NE is rolling right now and will keep on trucking...NE by 7.
MIN-WAS: The numbers tell me if RG3 plays the Skins win by 6. However, I picked Purple in all the pick'ems because I'm not sure if RG3 will play or how much he might with a more important game against NYG on deck. I'll take MIN until they prove me wrong...SKOL WINS 21-20.
NYG-SF: Everyone is in love with SF now since they started covering big numbers and blowing people out. However, this NYG is strong and will come out to play on the road this week. I think it's a very close game and 49ers win by a FG or less.
GB-HOU: My number is HOU -4 on this one, the same as the spread. I can't trust GB rigtht now, although they are getting close to the desperate territory, which makes them dangerous. I'll take GB to cover the 4 and lose.
DEN-SD: a coin flip game in my book, give me the better D and better trending team in DEN getting +2.
That's you're late but extended Week 7 Weekend Preview - enjoy the games, Good Luck!
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