What We Learned - Week 3

Another week in the books, here are some things we've learned through 3 weeks of football.

First, some fun facts. MIZZOU outgained Western Illinois 744-44 last week in their 69-0 win. They outgained them by 700 yards. Wow.

Another fun fact from week 2, road dogs in the NFL in weeks 2 in a matchup of 0-1 teams are 18-3-1 since 2004...one of those losses was STL last night.

The DAL FG in OT rather than a TD saved the books $72M in payouts...this seems insanely high, but it's been reported in multiple spots. The line ended at -3 and this caused a push rather than a DAL cover and win.

BAL was the heaviest bet team ever last week at TEN, according to multiple sources within the sports betting industry. Ever as in ever like including all super bowls and every other lined game ever. Whoops, that's a lot of lost dollars.

NCAA - WHAT WE LEARNED

Once again, look for teams coming off an emotional game, case in point this week is MISS ST and AUB. They played to the final whistle 2 weeks ago and ended it on a goal line stand for an upset AUB win. Both teams were feeling the hangover this week as MISST was smothered by LSU and AUB started hot but ended up running out of gas (and defense) against CLEM. College football is all about emotion, and most of these teams can't rebound for another big game and bring the same intensity 2 weeks in a row.

I misspoke last week when I said that VAN was excluded from the SEC dog principle, because they housed OLE MISS 30-7 on Saturday. It was a turnover festival like I expected, but I didn't see 5 picks for VANDY and an absolute beatdown of OLE MISS. My apologies to VANDY and their #1 fan G-REG. Why is he their #1 fan, he watched them practice once from his hotel room in lovely Nashville and he was instantly a fan for life. It been a rough ride, but maybe they're finally starting to get it.

I continued my hot streak in calling out questionable picks with BC -7.5 hosting DUKE. What did we learn from this? Well, never give a bad number like 7.5 when you classify a team as bad (like BC) no matter how bad their opponent is in a conference game (and DUKE is terrible!). BC didn't only avoid the cover, but they also failed to win straight up and fell to 0-3.

Texas has made a QB change, and they appear to be back. Garrett Gilbert just didn't provide any kind of spark at all in his year plus of service, so when in doubt go to a McCoy. Colt's little bro looks a lot like his big brother, and he's leading this team back to respectability. I will be interested to see that line in Vegas against OK...I might be on the Horns.

Another rule to remember, don't ever take NW as a favorite under any circumstances. They just can't make it work without being the underdog. They have covered one time in the last 2+ years as a favorite. Some teams just don't play well in that role, so only take NW when getting points.

Beware of the sandwich game...SC found this out and nearly lost straight up to NAVY. This was also an emotional let down spot for SC as they pulled out a close win over GEO a week ago. There is no worse team to play on a let down spot than a service academy, because they are the most consistent teams around. A snoozer game for SC between GEO and another SEC tilt with VANDY puts them in a tricky spot...once again, 20 year old kids - they know the schedule, they know where the big games are, and it's very difficult for them to get up back to back weeks...especially as a big fav with someone like NAVY coming to town.

Luke Fickell needs to sharpen up his resume. I called this the moment after they named him the interim coach, but he will be long gone after this season. When will team get it that you should NEVER hire a long time internal assistant to coach your team when the HC leaves. It just doesn't work - they were an assistant for a reason. It was hard to watch on Saturday as the Buckeyes threw for 14 yards...14. They look unmotivated and ready for the next regime to begin. Obviously, this will be a lost season, but how bad can it get? I think they lose 4 or 5, which is like 3-4 years worth of losses for Sweatervest. Ouch.

UTAH-BYU is a huge rivalry game that was moved up to week 3 since the 2 are not in the same conference any longer. I couldn't believe the -6.5 number that was put on BYU. They were coming off an emotional loss to TEX and UTAH just lost to USC. So we'll call that a push. But power rating wise these teams are equal, so if anything BYU should have been a slight favorite. But then you realize that points are worth double in rivalry games because they always tend to be close and UTAH was looking for revenge after losing last year to BYU...this was a no-brainer pick. I didn't see 54-10 coming, but UTAH is an equal if not better team than BYU so getting nearly a full TD was a gimme. Rivalry games are crazy like that, taking points seems to be the right spot in most of them assuming the dog is competant and not in Dick-Rod MICH vs. OHIOST position.

OKLAHOMA made the first real statement of the season on Saturday night. Winnning on the road is not something they have done a lot of over the years. FSU was determined to get back on the map with a big win, and OK absorbed the fluky TD the Noles used to tie the game and they answered right back and went on to dominate with their D and win the game. Their ease in winning surprised me. They could be the one to end the SEC streak of National Titles. I'll give them 2 more chances to lose...TEXAS and at OKST to end the year. They won't lose at home...ever. At BAY looks like their only other challenge, but I don't give them a chance at the upset. OK vs. LSU/ALA has to be the odds on favorite right now for the NC Game.


NFL-WHAT WE LEARNED

If the whole world loves a team (BAL) the best bet is to go against it. 13 guys on BAL last week, me on TEN. The whole world saw their domination of PIT and decided that they couldn't lose. TEN is a nice team who played poorly at JAC in week 1. The contrarian view can win you a lot of games in the NFL - if you can figure out the public's perception you can find some really good values.

Along those same lines, you should like teams coming off of big ATS losses (by 10 or more) and fade teams off big ATS wins (by 10 ore more). It's not 100% fool proof, like all these theories, but when worked in with a combination of other factors it can help lead you the right direction. Examples: ATL (killed by CHI, beats PHI); TB (lose big at home to DET, beat MN); CHI (crush ATL, get crushed by NO); WAS (crush NYG, fail to cover vs. ARI); NYG (killed by WAS, beat STL); BAL...; CLE (looked terrible vs. CIN, beat INDY easily); PIT (bad vs. BAL, house SEA); BUF (crush KC, fail to cover vs. OAK) Like I said, it's not automatic, but another thing to watch for when trying to pick some of these NFL games and figure out what kind of team you're going to get each week. Emotion is not as critical as NCAA, but it still plays a part in the NFL.

Similar to the BC-DUKE game, never give a bad number with a team who isn't very good...VIKES. -3.5 is just an awful number when you consider TB will likely make a comeback like they do every week and MIN can't really score many points anyway. Plus TB was coming in off a big ATS loss to DET...equals bad things for PURPLE TEAM.

The WEST to EAST games went 2-2, a surprisingly good showing for the west teams in this usually awful situation for them. OAK covered by 1 at BUF, BUF came out flat after the huge W in week 1. ARI also covered at WAS, which follows the same principle as WAS was in a sandwich game between the big NYG win and this week's DAL MNF. I missed that one. That's why you have to have many things factored in before picking a team. 1 guiding principle can not get you consistent winners, but combining lots of these kinds of factors should lead you to that elusive 55-60% number.

That's all I have for this week - let me know, if you'd like to share, what trends or other things you have learned this year that might help us all out. I know it's a competition, but I think it's worth sharing little tips and situations to look for to help us all grow our bankrolls. My goal is to eventually get us all out to VEGAS and counting our money some weekend in the future!!

I think we've done a great job so far with the picks for the year - I know the tough weeks will be coming, but let's keep picking winners!

$100 on the line this week - so it's a good time to post your best record of the year!