Divisional Playoff Picks

Huge weekend of football on tap for us with 2 games Saturday and 2 on Sunday. Want to know who will win and why...here you go:

BAL at PIT (-3)
*still waiting on MR's picks, but here's the scoop without those
PIT is the consensus pick here with only 2 guys on BAL so far.
I like PIT as well. First, BAL is one of the oldest teams in the league and they are playing on the road on a short week against a team who is well rested and didn't have to play last weekend. That's advantage #1. Second, I look at the QB's, and although Flacco has won a ton of road game in the playoffs in his short career, I still give the advantage to Big Ben in this one. The guy always manages to get it done - especially at home in a game like this. I think I've seen the "last 4 times this match up has been decided by 3 points" stat about 40 times this week...which means this one will definitely NOT be decided by 3 points.  PIT has a better offense statistically, a much better defense, better turnover numbers, and a more decisive advantage in YPG and PPG than BAL. A healthy Polamalu makes that D the best around, and all indications are that he will be ready to go. BAL does have a slight SPT advantage, but I'm hoping that doesn't come into play as much as it could. If you are looking at playmakers, Mike Wallace and Big Ben are the top 2 in this game on the offensive side, and both are on the PIT side. BAL's offense has just never gotten off the ground this year, and I don't think they will start tomorrow.

PIT 23 BAL 13

GB at ATL (-2)
Game 2 of our Saturday double header is maybe the best game of the weekend. We are at a split on this one right now with 4 on the Pack and 4 on the Falcons. Unfortunately, I have to side with the Green and Gold on this one. Ratings wise, I have GB as an overall better team than ATL on a neutral field. I know ATL has a decisive home field advantage, but I think that can be overcome. For the gaudy record the Falcons put up this year I really don't think they were that impressive. They outgained opponents by 8.9 YPG, and outscored opponents by 7.9 PPG. Not terrible numbers by any means, but a +14 TO ratio has been a huge help to them all year because they have been that dominant in the yardage game. GB is the opposite. The have a ppg differential of 9.2 and ypg of +49...both pretty high numbers but they have suffered a ton of close losses. They also have been a positive in TO at +10. ATL's offense revolves totally around the passing game. In my numbers, their rushing game actually ranks below GB's for the season at a -6% below average (GB is a +2%). The passing attacks of these 2 teams is about the same, so no real advantage gained there. Offensively, I'll call it a push. The real difference comes into play on the other side of the ball. Both teams play the run fairly well, not that it should matter too much in this game because in a dome environment it will always come down to passing. GB has one of the best pass defenses in the league - they get to the QB, they force TO's, and they have a great cover CB. ATL has a below average pass defense and seems to be kind of in the bend but don't break mode of ol' Denny Green Vikings teams. Playmakers - well, you have both QB's, but beyond that who could make a difference. GB has Jennings/Driver, although DD is past his prime. ATL has Roddy White. What have we seen out of the 1 WR teams so far this post-season? Reggie Wayne = nothing. Dwayne Bowe = nothing. Roddy White = yep, I look for him to have no impact on Saturday night. Which means Ryan (please don't call him Matty Ice...ever...like never ever) will have to really utilize Tony Gonzalez. Tony, I like you, but you're not going to win the game for this team on Saturday. For all the crap Rogers got for not winning a playoff game (which is a huge monkey off his back BTW) Ryan hasn't exactly done it either. I think he's a good QB, but the pressure all lies with the #1 seed Falcons this week, and I think they crumble.

GB 31 ATL 21

On to Sunday.....

SEA at CHI (-10)
Another seemingly lucky draw for the Bears who have beaten like 4 or 5 3rd string QB's this year in their bizarre run to the #2 seed. We have 5 guys on the SEA train and 3 on CHI this week.
I like SEA. Talk about nothing to lose - SEA was all but eliminated right after they beat STL to get to the playoffs, so after winning last week they have to be willing to try anything to keep this train moving. CHI has all the pressure in the world on them, and it seems to me that everyone is treating SEA as an afterthought this week as well...which is not a good thing for a Bears club that doesn't have enough firepower to look past anyone. Numbers wise, good god - how are either of these teams sitting in this position. SEA's rankings show them as having a terrible offense and a terrible defense. CHI has an equally terrible offense and a good defense. Both teams are very strong in SPT, which could be a huge factor in this one. Both were outgained during the season, hell - SEA was even a -9 in TO! So how could I pick SEA, right? Well, first the weather looks like it might really suck for Sunday morning in CHI. This would lead my logic to thinking it will be a run fest and a low scoring game...give me 10 points any day in that scenario. 2nd - 2 terrible offenses get together, one riding a wave of points from the upset last week with an experienced QB and nothing to lose, and the other with a QB that's never won much of anything, a psycho OC who could whip together 25 passing plays in a row at any moment with a terrible OL. I know the Bears have looked better down the stretch with their balance, but seriously - are you going to trust Jay Cutler to beat Hasselback by more tha n 10 points in the playoffs? In fact, if SEA gets the crowd on edge early and takes a little lead, watch Air Martz come out and a couple of Cutler picks later the Bears will be dreaming of next year.

SEA 20 CHI 17

Finally...the 4th and final game of the weekend...

NYJ at NE (-10)
Only 2 guys showing any Jets love at this point, which I expected. I think the PATS are an obvious public pick even at 10 points...so that's where I'm siding.

I said it 5 months ago, but I just do not trust this JETS team one bit. With a wild emotional leader and a team full of jackasses you never know what you're going to get. They've been all over the place this week doing their tough "intimidation" and name calling toward NE, while we've heard nothing but a few puns from Welker in his presser and a kind response from Brady to the guy with 5 different 3 year olds. The JETS act has gotten stale because they don't have anywhere close to the momentum of last season which they are trying to manufacture. While the whole time Belichick sits in silence thinking of ways to exploit the overrated JETS D and attack the Hollywood QB. From a pure power rating point of view, 10 is probably too much to give as a NE backer...but because of the emotional nature of this one for NY, I think it could get very ugly if they get behind. The NE offense is off the charts good. The are ridiculously efficient at running the football even though you never hear or think about that. And the passing game rates as 73% better than the average passing game in the NFL...not bad. The JETS can run it, I don't think this D will be a brutal as INDY was last week and allow you to run 60 times and continue to get 1st downs...which means San-Cheese is going to have to make some plays. Oh yeah, he said his shoulder is great and he's super healthy now...hmmm, didn't look like it last week. Even if he is healthy, they have a very average passing game and that "young" NE secondary has a full year under their belt and won't be nearly as easy to pick on at this point. Defensively, NE is pretty average. Their passing D ratings aren't real good because of the early season struggles, but they have a genius running the show which always helps. And on the other side, the JETS D is actually quite average as well. Their run defense has been great - just as great as the Purple when Belichick came into the Dome and threw it 30 times in a row. Yeah, stopping the run is great, but it won't win you a game by itself...which we've seen over the years. I really think Belichick might come out throwing it a lot early and try to get a lead on these guys and then turn the dogs loose. The JETS probably try and fool people by laying back and playing passive again, which is fine, because Brady will complete 30 underneath passes in a row to Woodhead and the young TE's and that will be that. NE has thrived off of TO's all year at a ridiculous +28, but there is absolutely no way they lose this home playoff game to this bunch of convicts.

NE 24 NYJ 10

There you go - 4 games, 4 W's. My top plays for the weekend are PIT -3 and then a sneaky 2 team teaser of GB +9.5 and NE -2.5...can't lose.

Good Luck!