Championship Sunday

The picks are in - here's the breakdown for Sunday.

GB at CHI (+3)
This first game of Championship Sunday features a couple of teams we know well. Since I picked the Bears to lose to SEA last week, you probably know where I'm going on this one. Here's the pick breakdown:
CHI - JG, SS, RO...all else like the PACK

Why GB? Well, I still am not buying into this CHI team. The Packers have a far superior offense and even a better defense than the Bears. Hester creates a huge SPT advantage against GB, but I don't think it's enough for them to win the game. GB has better points, yardage, and turnover numbers than CHI - and they are playing better right now and have been for about the last 6 weeks. Honestly, I don't really see a way for CHI to win this game. Maybe if there are crazy 40 mph winds and passing becomes extremely difficult and they get a big play from the defense and a score from Hester...then I could see a 17-10 CHI win. But that's a lot of ifs...what's likely to happen is that GB comes in and after weathering the early storm from the Bears they will show who the better team is. I think the Packers win a low scoring one.

GB 23 CHI 10 - love the UNDER 43.5 in this one.

NYJ at PIT (-3.5)
MR and MH are on the NYJ...the rest of us like PIT.
The 2 guys who took 1st and 2nd in the regular season both like NYJ in this one...should that be telling us all something? Our "wiseguys" are both on the JETS, but we all continue to like PIT.

Why PIT? First, the emotional edge that they should have coming in will be huge. The JETS just went through 2 very personal, tough road wins to get here - and their emotional outbursts after the win last week made me feel like beating the PATS was their goal and they might be spent before even getting to PIT. Second, I look at the numbers and PIT has a better offense, defense, ppg diff, ypg diff, and TO margin edge. That's pretty much every major category I care about. SPT edge would go to NYJ, but that has been pretty meaningless so far in this postseason. Then we look at QB...edge Big Ben > San-cheeeese. PIT is at home - not an easy spot to play. I just feel like they can punish the JETS D in ways that NE couldn't. PIT's ground game is a little down this year, but I love Big Ben in the playoffs. He'll find ways to move the ball and put some points up. But where I think the Steelers win this game is on defense. Sanchez played well last week, but that NE D is nothing close to the Steeler D that he'll face this week. They will pressure him and they stop the run better than anyone right now. If the JETS are going to do anything they will have to do it through the air, and I still don't trust Sanchez to be elite in those situations.

This one should be very close, which makes me think taking the 3.5 might be the best plan...but I really like PIT and I feel like they are the team of destiny this year...so I'm picking the team that I think will win.

PIT 21 NYJ 16

Each of these games is worth 9 points for a total of 18 this week.

Leaderboard w/Weekend Picks:
MC: 77 - GB/PIT
RO: 76 - CHI/PIT
JR: 74 - GB/PIT
GR: 72 - GB/PIT
MR: 71 - GB/NYJ
SS: 65 - CHI/PIT
MH: 63 - GB/NYJ
AW: 53 - GB/PIT
JG: 49 - CHI/PIT

Super Bowl will be worth 16 + 5 prop plays where the winner might be decided. Good Luck!!