Week 4 Pick Summary

NCAA
JR:GT-2.5,MN+2.5,BC+2.5,TCU+3,VT+2,ALA-15.5,CMU-16.5,AUB-31,FIU+1,OREST+2
JG:MN,IND+20,MSU+2.5,OHIOST-14.5,MIA-2,CAL-7,FLA-22.5,ARMY+10,PSU-10,WASU+44
MR:OLE-3.5,GT,MN,MICH-20,KAN-13.5,TEX-34,VT,ARK+15.5,UTAH-11.5,TT+1
MK:OLE,MIZZ-7.5,GT,MN,WIS-2.5,PITT-0,MIA,PSU,ND-8.5,WASH-7
AW:MIZZ,MN,WIS,WF-2.5,CLEM-3,MIA,ARKST-1,FLA,WASH,TT
GR:OLE,MIZZ,GT,MN,PITT,TEX,ORE+7,BOISE-17PUR+8.5,TT
MH:OLE,MN,MSU,PITT,CLEM,MIA,BOISE,PSU,WASH,TT
MC:FSU-14,MN,TCU,UTEP+34,MIA,TOL-1,MIAOH+9,NTEX+7.5,OREST,WASU

NFL
JR:NYG-7,MIN-6.5,CHI-1.5,DEN+2.5,CAR+10
JG:GB-6.5,DET+6.5,PIT-4.5,DEN,CAR
MR:MIN,DET,TEN+3,MIA+7,CAR
MK:GB,MIN,NO-4,PIT,IND+1
AW:NYG,MIN,TEN,NO,CHI
GR:NYG,MIN,CHI,ARI-1,CAR
MH:GB,ATL+4.5,MIN,NO,IND
MC:GB,MIN,NO,CHI,CAR

What a bunch of homers we are! 8 for 8 on the Gophers and 7 for 8 on the Vikes! JG, you could have made it a perfect week with a Vikes bet.

CONSENSUS PICKS
OLE-3.5, GT-2.5, MN+2.5, TT+1
GB-6.5, MIN-6.5, NO-4, CHI-1.5, CAR+10

9 games this week where at least net 50% of us like these teams.

NOTES FOR THE WEEKEND
- I didn't bet it but came dangerously close to picksing SC tonight. My PR say Ole Miss by 10, but I'm feeling an upset tonight.

- MSU at WIS: I think you have to go with the desperate team in one. MSU isn't a terrible team and could easily be 3-0. WIS isn't very good, but they used to play well at home. I like SPARTY.

- I like UNLV this week at WY -5.5...nobody touched this one, but it was on my list.

- RUT -3 looked like a no-brainer to me early in the week...but a desperate MARY team could spring an upset at home. RUT is much sketchier than I expected this year, I don't think you can trust either of these teams at all.

- #11 on my list was UCF +10 at ECU...it should be closer than that.

- MIA at VT: one of the biggest games of the week, and we've got guys going both ways on it. MIA has looked great, VT has not...which is all the more reason for me to like VT. That D at home always gives people problems. If MIA wins this one I will officially be a believer.

- I was the only one to jump on ALA this week...so far they have impressed me the most out of any team in the nation. I like ARK, but 15.5 is too light...I'm thinking more like 24 pt. win for SABAN.

- CAL at ORE: we have 1 vote for each this week. I think the jury is still out on both of them. ORE doesn't seem to be real good, but they are very tough at home. CAL looked very shakey at times against the Gophs, but they are loaded with talent and had enough poise not to fold under the pressure at the Brickhouse last week. I'll call CAL by 2 TDs.

- JG loves ARMY...or does he hate the 'Clones?!?

- BOISE is a covering machine, only GR and MH went with it this week but I like the pick...any number seems like a good one for them to cover.

- My LOCK OF THE WEEK and only me and MC picked it...OREST as a dog at home against AZ. OREST wins this game.

- IOWA at PSU: 3 guys giving PSU love, none on the Hogeyes for this week. I hate to say it, but I think Iowa is one of the better picks that nobody made this week. But it is sacreligious to bet for the Hogeyes, so thanks everyone.

- WASH at STAN: 3 of us our on WASH, zero on STAN...I hate this pick. I really this it is a huge letdown game for WASH and STAN wins and covers the 7 points this week.

- TT at HOU: over/under at 73...I LOVE the over. I'm calling for a TT 48-41 win.

- NMST at NM: 2 of the 5 worst teams in D1 this year, and nobody bet it! Neither of these teams could beat LeRoy by 10 points, so taking the Aggies and +10 is a good play here.

- Only two guys jumped on the WASU +44 sucker bet. I really thought there would be more of you. It probably isn't a terrible bet, but I still think USC runs wild and wins 48-3...so close.


NFL PICKS
I was reading this week about a challenge the Las Vegas Hilton has for the NFL picks. I can't recall how much it was to enter, but you pick 5 games per week (just like we do) and the guy with the best record at the end takes home over $200,000. Last year the winner hit 67%...so let's shoot for that. Not to brag, but currently JR and MC are both at 70% on NFL games, I'm sure that will continue.

- NYG seemed like the most obvious pick for me this week...TB might be the worst in the NFL and NYG might be the best.

- GB looks solid because STL is terrible.

- Still no line on KC-PHI...lame.

- ATL at NE scares the crap out of me. MH is the only taker this week, and he went with the Dog Falcons. Can't say I disagree. NE will find their stride eventually, but they are not there right now.

- Vikes scare me. I picked it, but I really like what Singletary has done. This has a FG Vikes win written all over it to me.

- JAC at HOU is one of only 2 games with zero action this weekend. With good reason, who the hell knows anything concrete about either of these teams?

- I almost jumped on the Kitty's this week...but it's kind of been a trendy pick so I avoided it...JG and MR think the streak could end this week.

- MR and AW went TEN at NYJ...I like that a lot. The NYJ balloon has to pop soon, and TEN is desperate to not go 0-3. Nice choice guys.

- NO looks like a strong play, I just figure they are due for something fluky in BUF.

- I liked SEA over CHI, but with no Hasselback it's a no-brainer. Bears crush.

- I love DEN at OAK. I still don't think much of DEN, but OAK is really bad. They has no business beating KC last week, and they will lose this week.

- MR with a sneaky MIA at SD pick of the Dolphins. I like it. They impressed me in hanging with INDY on Monday night. SD is on the way down this year in my opinion.

- GR likes AZ, big Kurt Warner fan? Thank you Jesus!! 2 others went IND, which is the way I would go. I just can't believe in the Cards at all.

- Nobody is trusting the 'Boys to cover 10 on Monday night. CAR is another scary desperate team that will still likely lose but should give them all they can handle. Even with DelHomme and the brutal offense, Romo is bound to give them a couple of scores right? Most overrated QB ever?


Finally....large game in Evanston.
GOPHERS at NW

So even though we gave up 35 to CAL I really like our defense. I think they come in focused on winning the game for us this week. Kafka is a runner, which we've seen, but he threw the ball okay last week as well...but when you throw 40+ times turnovers are going to happen. They can't get anything going with their RB's, and that defense that was lights out good last year is very poor this season. Greg Paulus went over 300 in the air...yeah, that's how bad they are in the secondary.

When we have the ball, I really believe we will get a running game going this week. After re-watching CAL, there were spots for our backs to do some good things, but the vision they have is really not good. Our line blocked well most of the time, but when plays were blown up it was because of the great CAL DB's. They blew up no less than 6 running plays in the backfield before it even got started. This tells me that either we're too slow and telegraphing our runs much too soon and they are rushing the line of scrimmage, and/or our WR's are not blocking well at all in the run game.

I think we come out throwing it all over the field against the brutal NW secondary this week. Once we have that in their head then the running game comes into play. Chris Spielman said it best when he stated that we have to pass to set up our run as opposed to the old adage that you need to establish the run first. A good, unpredictable mix is how this offense will succeed. We don't have the horses to power run them in all predictable running downs, but we will be able to run when you plant the thought of a lethal passing game in their head. I'm also hoping to see a little more running ability out of AWEB...and like I've been calling for for the last 2 weeks: GIVE #5 A SERIES OR TWO AT QB JUST TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS!!

Bottom line, our defense will play well and get us a couple of turnovers. The passing game exploits the brutal secondary early, and we run it well in H2 to seal the victory. It is NW, so you know we'll play them close like we always do...final tally = GOPHERS 34 NW 28.

3-1 doesn't suck when you're welcoming in the Badgers to the Brickhouse next week.

Have a great weekend everyone - should be plenty to discuss on Monday morning.