Gambling is awesome

Not sure if any/all of you listen to and/or read Bill Simmmons on ESPN, but you should. I checked out a recent audio show he has called the BS Report with this guy Chad Millman who writes a sports gambling blog for ESPN Insider...and it was great.

I attached the link, but here are some of the highlights if you don't want to listen to the 45 minute conversation:

- Casinos are trying to find ways for the average sports gambler to spend more money so a place called the "M" hotel 45 minutes outside of Vegas has found a great solution. In game wagering...this is how it works: you get a blackberry type device and it instantly updates (every play in some cases) with new odds and new things you can bet on (run/pass, moving over/unders, who scores next, etc.)This sounds insanely dangerous and a good way to blow my entire Vegas budget in 1 quarter of a Gopher game!

- Week 2 of the NFL Season is the most dangerous week to bet on all year. The public overreacts to anything and everything they saw in week 1 and that greatly influences the lines for week 2. Examples: Bears being a 3 pt dog at home against PIT...if this was a week 1 game it would have been less thn that, but Cutler's 4 picks made it necessary. Maybe this explains why we stunk so bad, well most of us did, on our NFL picks last week!

- "Always bet against the public." This is kind of the rule I was alluding to when I was talking about how bad we typically do on our "consensus picks" for the week. If the public is all seeing the same thing, it's probably wrong...that's why Vegas continue to win.

- Not really a football rule, but could be applied to other sports...The Zig-Zag rule. In it's simplest form it goes like this, in an NBA playoff game bet against the team that lost the night before. The public typically reacts too much to each indiviual game in the playoffs and therefore usually leans toward the Game 1 winner to win game 2. So this rule states that would should take the points for the losing team in game 1 because it's the best value. I like it.

- College Football and College Basketball are the best ways to make $ gambling on sports. Basically, there are too many teams for the linesmakers to keep up to date on everything so you'll find some really solid values out there. I've always believed this, but this is the first time I've heard an "expert" validate it.

- There is an equal amount of science and chance invovled in sports gambling. I have realized this, hence the Power Ranking plan I have this year. But even if you don't go to the extent that I do, just basing picks based on your own set of knowledge and betting principles is the science side to the gambling. It's not like picking a stock randomly and hoping it works out...that would be 100% luck, but when you have some analysis and logic behind it then it becomes 50/50 luck and science.

- I guess this guy has a book out which I'm probably going to pick up...interesting stuff if you're interested. It's called "The Odds" by Chad Millman...good stuff.


Other odds and ends for a random Tuesday....

- Don't deny the hometown GOPHERS or you will be cursed...want proof?
Michael Floyd - denies Brew and breaks his collarbone
Willy Mobley - denies Brew and gets hurt than transfers from OHIOST

Bottom line - if Brew comes calling, you should accept.
Since the CAL loss we've had 4 guys commit in the last 4 days! Not a bad run, but why does this always seem to happen after the losses and not after the wins. Weird. I can't get too into the recruiting right now, but it'll be topic #1 once the calendar hits late JAN.

One other note - the horse $hit QB that ARIZONA was rolling with vs. Iowa has now been benched. Couldn't we have figured this out one week earlier before this guy totally embarassed himself on Saturday with the rainbows he was putting up there? Hogeyes get very few points on the bvoard for this win - AZ is terrible, just like about 8 other teams in the Pac 10.

Early NW-GOPHERS thoughts...I'm a little uneasy. Becky on the horizon, NW coming in off a loss to a bad bad SYR team, Kafka and the horrible memories of 2008. If all goes according to plan we are a better team than them, but that would be way too easy, so I'm sure we'll make it interesting. NW has had a terrible defense thus far, and our defense really has been solid. I mean, they gave up 37 to SYR last week...geez. If we can get the defense to control the game and get some kind of offensive consistency going it should be a W.

Then bring in the Becky and we'll take our chances. Honestly, I love us in this game right now. We'll probably be about a 3 point favorite, depending on what happens this week, but I think it's going to be the first marquee win for Mr. Brewster. It sounds like the great John Clay is going to get benched for fumbling too much against Wofford last week. And it's their first road game of the year...in a very hostile environment for a change! They start a young QB and have a terrible defense...I'm thinking a laugher for the Maroon and Gold, but we'll get to that next week.

Finally - a quick music recommendation...new PJ album...wow. I'm obviouslt a gigantic fan, but this new album just flat out rocks. I love it. Picked it up Sunday and it's been worn out already.

My first favorite...Just Breathe

Yes I understand that every life must end, aw huh,..
As we sit alone, I know someday we must go, aw huh,..
I’m a lucky man to count on both hands
The ones I love,..

Some folks just have one,
Others they got none, aw huh,..

Stay with me,..
Let’s just breathe.

Practiced are my sins,
Never gonna let me win, aw huh,..
Under everything, just another human being, aw huh,..
Yeh, I don’t wanna hurt, there’s so much in this world
To make me bleed.

Stay with me,..
You’re all I see.

Did I say that I need you?
Did I say that I want you?
Oh, if I didn’t now I’m a fool you see,..
No one knows this more than me.
As I come clean.

I wonder everyday
as I look upon your face, aw huh,..
Everything you gave
And nothing you would take, aw huh,..
Nothing you would take,..
Everything you gave.

Did I say that I need you?
Oh, Did I say that I want you?
Oh, if I didn’t now I’m a fool you see,..
No one know this more than me.
As I come clean.

Nothing you would take,..
everything you gave.
Hold me till I die,..
Meet you on the other side.