Monday, September 21, 2009

Week 3 Results

Another week in the books and still a log jam at the top of the standings.

Only one guy in the black this week - 8th place Mike Corcoran went 8-7, 4-1 in NFL picks to win the week. Nice work Steel Curtain.

Week Results
MC 8-7
JR 7-8
JG 7-8
MR 7-8
GR 7-8
MK 6-9
AW 6-9
MH 5-10

Overall Standings
JG 25 20 55.6%
MR 24 21 53.3%
GR 23 22 51.1%
MH 22 23 48.9%
JR 22 23 48.9%
AW 20 25 44.4%
MC 20 25 44.4%
MK 19 26 42.2%

Only 6 games separate worst from first, so still not a lot of separation...waiting for that first 13-2 week or 2-13 week to create a favorite or knock somebody out early. 3 guys making $ so far, 5 in the red through 3 weeks.

I struggled this week in the late games and finished overall at 25-27 for the "pick every game" challenge that I do. Puts me at 69-69 overall for the season. Not terrible, not good. Time to start a good stretch with conference games starting off this week.

15-25 overall in the NFL games this week - that's more like it. I'm telling you, the NFL is much tougher than the NCAA so this is a more realistic performance than week 1 was for the 8 of us. 38-42 in NCAA games this week, not bad...but room for improvement.

How did our consensus 7 picks go for week 3...2-5 (0-3 NFL), nice. I guess if everyone is liking a game as much as you do then you're probably all wrong. Thinking outside the box can do good things for you in a challenge like this.

What did we learn this week?
- The U might be back to win the ACC. Jacory Harris is my #1 Heisman guy right now (Decker has to be on this list as well, right?). I'm starting to wonder if the novelty has worn off a little with the triple option and GT...there's a reason that only a handful of teams out of 120 run it in D1...especially at the BCS level.

- BOISE vs. FRESNO was one of the most bizarre games ever. 8 TD's of over 60 yards! WTF? Boise's D didn't look BCS level, but I don't see another loss on the slate for them.

- PSU doesn't want to cover...ever. 0-3 ATS right now, 3 dominating wins but JoePa must be betting against them because they stop just short of covering every week.

- BC's 2-0 start was a mirage.CLEM is tough.

- PUR is a mirage as well. NILL isn't awful, but that is a REALLY BAD Defense in Boiley land...even our offense should put up 30+ on 10/10.

- COL won a game!!

- Should have seen it coming...when everyone predicts and expects a route by the Gators over the hated Vols it won't happen. That's how these things usually work, as I said above: don't bet on the obvious because it will probably be wrong.

- MARY is still awful. Losing at home to MDTN. wow.

- VT won in patented fashion for them. No offense all day, one drive late to win. NEB looks to be really tough, I like them to win the B12 North...well, I don't like it but I predict it.

- IND is 3-0! Maybe the weakest 3-0 start since...well, maybe ever. 0-8 in B10 is not out of the question, but I like my prediction for them to finish 10th above the 1-2 Boilers.

- Sparty, typical loss for them. ND lost Floyd for the year, which will kill them...but Sparty is now just hoping for a bowl game after a 1-2 start with a tricky stretch ahead. Start the turnaround by crushing Becky this week!! Go Sparty!

- USC got their 2009 clunker out of the way. Look for them to cruise now and not lose again. I think CAL looked great, but never bet against USC...especially after they already suffered their loss for the year.

- WASH and Steve Sarkisian are solid. I've always loved Jake Locker, but now there's actually a coach behind him who has a clue. This team could be a suprise bowl team in 2009.

- UTAH = Lost, BYU = lost...thanks football gods for ending that dream early.

- AZ is not good. WTF is the deal with their offense against the Hogeyes? The guy's deep ball, which he threw every 3rd play, looked like a Nick Punto flyball to 2nd...about 300 feet in the air. By the time it came down there were usually 3-4 Hogeyes standing around it. Nice IOWA win, but no more impressive than our L against CAL.

- I'm only going to say this once more this year...NEVER BET ON A UCONN GAME, FOR OR AGAINST THEM, YOU WILL LOSE. THEY ARE THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF NCAA FOOTBALL.

- Wow, my sneaky NEV team looks good this year. Gross.

- WASU won a game! Hell is freezing over!

- CIN is a sleeeeeeper BCS Title game team. These guys are playing extremely well. Winning in Corvaillis is not easy, and they won by 10. Look out Big East. My bromance for Brian Kelly continues.

- NW lost at SYR. Can we all agree that last year was flukier than flukey for this club. The defense is awful again and I still think Kafka is bad. Gophers as underdogs next week = lock of the century!?!?

- OKST, you beat RICE by 17? Where is this super cool and productive offense I remember from 2008? Gundy, man, 42, better figure it out before the conference slate starts.

- VAN, a sentimental fav for GR, stunk up the joint with a 3 point performance at home against a major rebuilding MISST team. Some things never change.

- MIAOH scored points! 26 of them! Congrats guys, I knew you could do it.

- FSU, wow was that an A$$ whooping! The Mormons were beat before halftime. Bobby must have said something to get the fellas fired up after the sleepwalk against JAXST last week. Or do you think Bobby was even at practice this week? Seriously, I don't think that guy has anything to do with the entire program anymore besides being a figure head on the sidelines. It's funny to watch.

- Clones...2-1. They will not be denied...and they're favored again against the ARMY this week! 3-1 here we come...bowl bound, until the 0-8 in conference.

- SEC is now scoring more points (and allowing more) than any other conference. AUB 41-30, GEO 52-41 over ARK, unreal. Remember when the SEC used to play defense? Is this the B12 of 2008 all over again?

- UTEP won and covered, first week I didn't pick them. Damn it!

- TEX, had too many chances to cover but couldn't stop the TT attack. You have to be impressed when all your offense can do is throw and you still put up a fight against TEX with all the new players they have.

GOPHERS-CAL
Well, that was probably the most enjoyable Gopher loss that I can ever remember. I thought we had a chance coming in, and they proved me right by being tied up with about 8 minutes left. If we just make a couple of plays in that 4th quarter, there's a chance we win the game. I loved the play-calling and the use of MGRAY (who will now simply be known as #5 in Favre-esque fashion). I really want to see #5 under center for a series or two, just see what happens. I'm not a Weber hater, but with our complete lack of a running game I think you have to have that QB threat to run to keep them honest and open up more down the field. It also doesn't appear like we would drop off at all with the passing game as #5 is supposed to be a great passer as well. I'm not saying you hand him the keys...yet...but give him a series each half or something like that. I think this might be coming as he has been more and more integrated each week. I also hope the play-calling stays creative like this week. A lot fo teams roll those things out for the big-time opponents and then pocket it against the NW and PUR's of the world. Keep it lose and unpredictable.

The Defense impressed as well. A very shaky start had me worried, but once again the halftime adjustments were great. Cosgrove has been outstanding thus far. It really hurt not having Sherals. Collado can hit a little, but I think I might fair better in coverage situations...think Brew wants a 6'8" 220lb CB? The DL and LB's played well for the most part, too. CAL is really good. They showed some poise, which Tedford's teams have not done in the past. Riley was accurate with his deep balls and Best is just electric. How fun would it be to have that threat in our backfield? Their Defense might be the best we see all year. I know we have PSU and OSU on our schedule, but they were fast and large at all positions. That DL dominated us, and their CB's contained very well. I still can't pick them to beat USC, but they looked legit as #8 in the nation.

Brickhouse was rocking in that 4th quarter, obviously the 3rd and 16 conversion was the biggest play. Then another great pass and a TD put us behind. The Weber pick was brutal, but that's how it goes. We felt the pressure and collapsed under it.

Overall, we're 2-1 and I'm feeling REALLY good about the next 3 games to start the B10. We competed with a really good team, and the offense showed signs of life. It sounds like ED's injury is not going to be a problem. Our P Orseske has mono I guess, which is why he didn't play and won't the next couple of weeks. Hopefully Sherals will be back, NW will try to throw a lot...because they'll be behind! My major concern is the OL. We need to have some semblance of a running game going forward. The pass protection was suspect - it was a great DL - but we need more. Look for some possible personnel changes going into the next few games. This is what I think most everyone predicted through the first quarter of the schedule, but what I don't think people predicted is the confidence that we should/do have going into the next quarter of the schedule with @NW, WIS, PUR. 3-0 is VERY POSSIBLE, but even 2-1 is a must to keep this thing going strong. Total season prediction going into game 4...still 7-5. But the potential for 9-3! Go Gophers!

Vikes Recap
zzzzzzzzzzz....yawn.....zzzzzzzzzzz....yawn. Oh, we won. great.

I'll send out the games soon. College lines are posted, NFL will come out tomorrow.

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