New Year's Eve Update - Gopher Preview + Other Games

All right - it's finally here, the final game and day of the year of our lord 2008. Gophers v. Jayhawks, can you feel the excitement. Well, maybe not...but I'm stoked. I find it hard to believe that none of the "experts" are giving the Gophers any chance in this one...but more on that later.

First, how are we all doing in this exciting Bowl Season:
MK - 25
MR - 22
JR - 18
JG - 16

35 possible points gone, 65 to go...still way too early to call a winner.

However, a huge moving day is upon us right now. 4 games today, and we don't have a unanimous agreement on any one of them.

AF-HOU
JR and JG like the Falcons, who open "The Bank" next September against our beloved Gophers. (do you like "The Bank"? I've heard that thrown around a bit...it's okay, but I doubt it sticks) MK and MR went with the favored HOU club. The game is in TEXAS (favors HOU) but it's the Armed Forces Bowl (favors AF). Now on to what might really decide the game...the AF defense. Guess who has the #1 offense in the nation...FLA, nope; OK, nope; HOU...yep. 575 ypg - WOW! 414 of those through the air. However they only won 7 games after avg. 41 ppg. Why? well, they allow 31 pgg and rank 102nd overall for defense. You know what you're going to get with AF. Run, run, run. 5th in the nation at 269 ypg. AF also ranked 13th in sacks this year, which should come into play with the high-octane passing attack we'll see out of HOU. AF won 31-28 when they met in the regular season. Bottom line for me, you never bet against a service academy in the bowl games...might not be a great rule, but it's burned me too many times over the last 4 years. I like AF on the ground against a porous HOU D, and I think the AF pass rush and ability to force turnovers wins it for them in a close one...Falcons 38-34.

PITT-OREST
MK likes the Panthers, all else are with the Beavers. Pitt sports a nice defense and a very average offense coming in. They have been playing some good ball to close out the year, and it appears that Wanstedt has finally put it all together. OSU sports an equally strong defense and a much stronger offense, ratings wise. 27th vs. 63rd in favor of the Beavers. I love the Beavers balance, and they are Top 10 in getting to the QB. Pitt is also more turnover prone than OREST, and that could make all the difference in a close game like this one. I like the Beavers by a TD...28-21.

BC-VAN
JR and MK like BC, MR and JG like VANDY. To me, this is one of the biggest mismatches in the bowl season. BC is nothing special on offense, but their defense is unreal. #6 in the nationand they have forced 36 turnovers...about 3/game. However, their offense has lost it 30 times, they can't throw, and their running game is average. But it's still better than Vandy...whose offense ranks #117 in the nation - ouch. They really can't throw at all, and their running game is below avg as well. The Vandy defense is Top 30, but their offensive ineptitude is too much to overcome. This could be a very ugly one on both sides - VAN will be insanely pumped to play in a bowl game for the first time since Jesus was walking the earth, but BC wins bowl games, period. I'm looking for a turnover fest with very little offense and a lot of trick plays and wacky things happening. BC wins in a weird one 16-6.

LSU-GT
MR took LSU, the rest are on the triple option of GTECH. I love Tech in this one. 282 ypg on the ground in the ACC...wow. But the thing I really like about Tech is their defense. A Top 25 unit, the stop the run and get to the QB...very nice. LSU has had a very disappointing year, and I think they will not be real excited about playing in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. Average offense, and a decent but very underachieving defense cost them all year. A 2-headed QB didn't help much either. They only forced 16 turnovers all year, pretty pathetic for a unit like this. They lost 3 of their final 4, and I think they come in flat. GT is playing in ATL, basically at home, and their should have some fire. GT won 3 of their last 4 by beating FSU, MIA, and GEO...not bad. I like the Jackets to run wild and LSU to get frustrated on both sides of the ball...TECH wins 31-21.

GOPHERS - KANSAS
This is it, the big one. JR and JG have faith in the Gophs...MK and MR do not. It's that simple. Honestly, there could be much worse matchups for our club this year. But I think the B10 is due for a W. First, the Jayhawks: No running game to speak of, but a very good QB and passing attack ~300ypg. Their D stops the run fairly well, but their pass defense, like all B12 teams, is atrocious. They also allow a ton of sacks with the scrambling style of Reesing. The Gophers numbers actually ended up being pretty ugly this year. 104th in the nation in rushing, 57th in passing...91st in overall offense. Maybe I'm too naive, but I do believe the running game will improve tonight vs. KAN with the new style and new running game/OL coach in place. A healthy Decker could mean a world of difference to the passing attack as well, especially against a pathetic KAN D that will be missing a starting CB and starting a true freshman in his place. On D we fnished 74th overall, not great but miles ahead of last year. We are succeptible to the pass, and Reesing will get his yards. We need to stop the run completely and get pressure. We were 25th in sacks, which bodes well for our chances of getting to Reesing tonight. We also forced 30 turnovers and for the most part took care of the ball. If we can limit the huge plays by Reesing, get pressure, and win the turnover battle we should be fine. But that's a lot of ifs. I do think we'll score some points on a bad defense...but sadly, I am picking the Gophers to come up short, but cover: KAN 34-31.

That's all for today's games. 5 more big ones tomorrow.

JR/MK-IOWA, JG/MR-SC - who hates IOWA?
JR/JG - NEB, MK/MR - CLEM
JR/MR - GEO, MK/JG - MSU
JR/JG - PSU, MK/MR - USC
All like VT over CIN

I'll send out more updates as games finish up - today's game are all worth 3...tomorrow are all worth 4 each.

Also - don't forget to send over your NFL picks for the weekend as well.

later. have a happy new year and enjoy the Gophers today.