Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Week 8 Standings

8 weeks down...here's how we look:

MR 66 54 55.0%
JR 65 55 54.2%
GR 64 56 53.3%
MC 64 56 53.3%
MH 62 58 51.7%
JG 59 61 49.2%
MK 58 62 48.3%
AW 55 65 45.8%

493-467 total...not terrible, much better than year's past actually.

NFL

JR 21 14 60.0%
GR 20 15 57.1%
MR 18 17 51.4%
MC 17 18 48.6%
AW 17 18 48.6%
MH 17 18 48.6%
MK 16 19 45.7%
JG 13 22 37.1%

139-141, slightly below .500 - not last week though...28-12 LW for a robust 70%...wow

NCAA

MR 48 37 56.5%
MC 47 38 55.3%
JG 46 39 54.1%
MH 45 40 52.9%
GR 44 41 51.8%
JR 44 41 51.8%
MK 42 43 49.4%
AW 38 47 44.7%

354-326...+28 over .500, not bad.

Overall pick'em...I went 37-19 in NCAA for 66.1%, one week too late damn it!
NFL I went 8-5 and am hitting 58.3% for the year. NCAA total is at 52%.

VEGAS got hit hard last Sunday. I read that one book paid out 5 10-team parlay winners for $80K each on Sunday. I read a quote of the Hilton guru saying that Sunday was the worst day in the history of betting football for Las Vegas sports books. What does this all mean? Well, Vegas is getting crushed by having all of these "heavy" favorites continuing to cover over bad teams every week. So the lines for this week look more like NCAA lines, basically if it isn't a matchup of 2 decent teams you're going to see a line anywhere from 15-20 going forward until things even out. Should make for some tough NFL calls coming up.

Consistency Ratings
Here's who has been the most consistent (most +.500 weeks)

TOTAL
MC - 5
MH - 5

NFL
JR - 4
MC - 4

NCAA
MR - 5
MC - 5
MH - 5

Toughest Year so far (consistency)
TOTAL
JR, MK, AW - 3 +.500 weeks

NFL
JG - 2

NCAA
AW - 1

STREAKS
- MC and MH both have 4 winning weeks in a row TOTAL
- JG has had 4 straight losing NFL weeks (5-15)
- AW has had 6 straight losing NCAA weeks (27-33)(all 4-6 and 5-5 weeks)
- MC had gone 8-2 in NCAA for 3 consecutive weeks before a 6-4 performance this week
- MH has gone 6-4 in NCAA the last 4 weeks
- Nobody has posted a 0 in either NFL or NCAA yet...will it happen?

WORST PICKS OF THE WEEK
NCAA - BYU (JG) - 1pt home dog that lost by 31!
NFL - CHI (MK, MC) - 1 pt road dog that lost by 35 without forcing 1 punt!

I'll send out the games shortly as well as a recap of soe random thoughts from the weekend later today.

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