Week 6 Pick Summary

We're ready for another week...already! When you have 3 nights of other sports action on MON, TUES, WED the week goes pretty quick.

First, a couple of tidbits I watched/read over the last few days.

How about this classic from ESPN:

"Iowa athletic director Gary Barta writes a guest editorial to the student newspaper expressing his disappointment with drunk tailgaters at Hawkeyes home games."

Really Gary? You're the AD at Iowa and you're just picking up on the drunken stupor necessary to watch Hogeye football? Maybe even more hilarious is how all these fans are talking about how Saturday is their "church session" and a "religious experience"...but they couldn't manage to sell out last week. Hmmm...GO BLUE!

I rewatched part of STAN-UCLA from last week late last evening. STAN has a KR who before the game has returned 6 kick all year...3 were for TD's! How about that success rate?!? We need TS to watch some of this guy's film and learn how to take it the distance.

Alright. On to the picks........

NCAA
JR: TROY(W), SC, UCLA, NAVY, OHIO, AUB, TOL, IDAHO, UTST, UTEP
JG: NEB, MN, WV, MSU, ALA, KAN, ORE, OHIOST, LSU, MICH
MR: MN, WV, OLE, KAN, MISST, UTAH, AUB, GT, LSU, MICH
MK: MIZZ, MN, ILL, ALA, ORE, GEO, TEX, TCU, GT, MICH
AW: MIZZ, NEV, MN, ALA, WIS, GEO, AUB, FSU, MICH, WASH
GR: MIZZ, MN, PITT, ALA, KAN, WIS, GEO, TEX, LSU, MICH
MH: MIZZ, NEV, MN, MSU, ORE, GEO, AUB, OREST, LSU, MICH
MC: TROY(W), NEV, CMU, MISST, TN, KENT, AKR, OREST, FIU, IDAHO

NFL
JR: CAR, PHI, MIN, NE, IND
JG: BUF, KC, OAK, NE, TEN
MR: CAR, ATL, ARI, NE, NYJ
MK: MIN, SF, DEN, IND, NYJ
AW: CAR, SF, NE, IND, MIA
GR: PIT, MIN, SF, ARI, MIA
MH: PIT, ATL, NE, IND, NYJ
MC: TB, SF, NE, IND, NYJ

Consensus Picks:
MN-4, AUB-3, LSU+9.5, MICH+7.5
NE-3, IND-3

Only 6 this week...I don't like LSU but I do like the rest.

- NEB-MIZZ
This should be a great one tonight. NEB is a better team, great D...but not sure if they can overcome the homefield advantage on a Thur night, especially as a FAV. PICK = MIZZOU

- GR takes PITT, again. This is justified, they cover every week - see below for other really good and really bad ATS teams this year.

- 2 on Sparty this week one on ILL. If it's EVER going to happen for ILL this year it has to be this week after the QB change and at home against an average opponent. I still go with SPARTY.

- HUGE SEC Games this week! LSU-FLA, ALA-OLE, GEO-TN, AUB-ARK...lots of good teams.
LSU-FLA: never underestimate the Gators...especially when the public loves LSU, who is the worst Top 5 team ever. Gators, with anyone under center, will win this one.
ALA-OLE: this is where OLE shows the hype. I think this one is extremely close, but ALA wins on a FG.
GEO-TN: Neither club is really that good. I hate TN offense, but the GEO D isn't real good either. I like TN at home by a FG.
AUB-ARK: AUB is one of my picks, they are solid this year and ARK plays less D than anyone in the SEC.

- Almost went with KAN over ISU...Clones should get run out of Lawrence by halftime.

- LOVE SC over UK this week...2 brand new CB's starting for UK, and SC is finally figuring it out this year.

- MC wanted TEMPLE but dropped last minute...I think he'll regret that. They should roll over BALLST.

- Love UCLA this week, whole world loves ORE but QB is likely out and they are not at home = different team

- Becky should get beat by 2 TD's a OHIOST. I hate them.

- Nobody went with it, but I think OK might be ready for a big rebound beatdown of BAY the week before the shootout with TEXAS.

- Not a lot of ACC action from this crew, but if you're looking for a trend: ACC Dogs in conference games are 50-24 over the last 2 years.

- STAN stays hot and wins again at Corvaillis this weekend!

- I picked UTEP again...please Utes don't make me regret it...MEM is HORRIBLE!

- HAIL TO THE VICTORS will be played____ times this weekend? The answer is 4, which means MICH wins 24-21!

GOPHERS - BOILERS
So PUR comes in at 1-4, after a gut-wrenching loss last week vs. NW. They turned it over 6 times, and still had a chance to win at the end of the game. The D is a sieve, and the star RB from the first 2 weeks has been bottled up since then. Their D has allowed 30 ppg, so even our struggling O should be able to put some points up. I heard Conzemius this morning mentioned that Gray is still struggling to read the D, which makes sense. Once he figures this out he should get some time. He also said Hayo Carpenter is not nearly as fast as he was hyped to be coming in...I think getting run down by a DLman last week after a big gain tipped everyone off! This is a MUST win game for the Maroon and Gold. The forecast is a balmy 39 and flurries, so it should be our first taste of real football weather since the move...not that last week was great, but this will be a true test.

What will happen? I really think PUR is going to come out flat. After that brutal let down loss last week I really don't think they have a lot of fire left. The Gophers on the other hand are out to prove wrong all the "experts" who are speculating that last week was the beginning of our annual spiral out of control. A convincing win this week would go a long way for a club with 3 very difficult road games and 3 more very winnable home games. Let's hope the offense pounds away and runs effectively, which they'll have to do in bad weather. I'm sure we'll also see 150 and a TD from ED again. Defense needs to create turnovers, which they will do...3 of them. The difference this week is that we need to convert these into TD's and not FG's! I'm not 100% convinced that we can do that, but I'm hoping for the best.

Official prediction: GOPHERS move to 4-2 with a 35-27 win!


NFL Thoughts
Very weird year so far in the NFL. The bookies are losing their a$$es because the favorites keep covering. So what happens? The lines get larger and larger until things even out. That's what we have this week.

I think a lot of us pick underdgos when we think the points are too high, but most of us don't necessarily think they can win the game. Well, how many times has this happened this year? Out of 62 NFL games, the favorite has won but not covered only 8 times...13%. It has become a pick'em league through 4 weeks, if you can pick the team that's going to win they are probably going to cover. This will obviously change, but it's a really strange trend right now.

Also, 12 of the 14 home teams won last week - really odd. Usually this is about a 50/50 split each week...first 3 weeks (9-7, 7-9, 9-7).

Not a lot of sure things this week in the NFL. Some huge lines, but I jumped on a couple of them. I think a lot of us see those large lines and instantly rule it out. It seems like the most action is placed on the games with lines of 3 points or less.

Sneaky picks this week?

JG went with BUF at home, I like it. CLE is terrible on the road, but I just don't think that highly of BUF.
CIN with a sneaky cover of 9 at BAL?
DET still isn't good, I feel like we're getting more confidence in them but they are still bad.
KC covers 9 at homes against DAL.
Don't be scared of -16 for NYG, OAK won't score.
PHI gets DMc back and Westbrook, TB still has Josh Johnson...-15.5 is nothing!
ATL-SF is a great one this week. Not sure about ATL on the road, SF is real deal on D...but they still have Shaun Hill!?!!?
Have to take NE at DEN, right?
ARI needs a W at home, if not it might be time to panic.
IND -3 at TEN is lock of the week in NFL...I finally gave up on Fisher and his D
NYJ-MIA is a very interesting game. 2 good D's, two young QB's (Henne, Sanchez), 2 good coaches. I take NYJ because their D will make Henne panic all night.

Purple at Rams doesn't deserve a preview. Rams might be #32 this year in the NFL. Vikes might be #1?

Have a good one everyone - I'll be the one in the Maroon and Gold snowsuit on Saturday if you're heading to the Brickhouse.