Week 16 Preview

Here are the picks for this week, sorry I can't erase the JAC pick from last night for some of us (including myself). I had ATL marked all week and made the impulse change yesterday...I'm a sucker for points. Oh well, 9-1 will probably still take home the $100!! Here we go:

JR: JAC TB WAS SEA KC MIN OAK PHI DEN BAL
JG: SEA BAL ATL DAL CIN TEN HOU DET NYJ NE
MR: SEA BAL DAL NYJ OAK DEN GB CAR NO SF
AW: NYJ NO HOU DET NE TB KC IND CHI SD
GR: NO HOU NE SEA BAL DAL GB SF ATL NYG
MH: NO HOU SEA BAL NYG TB OAK CIN TEN ARI
MC: NO HOU BAL TB OAK NE CHI JAC WAS PHI
SS: NO HOU BAL NE CHI JAC WAS NYJ DET KC
RO: NO HOU NE NYJ DET NYG CIN GB ATL CLE
TN: NYJ DET BAL JAC WAS KC SEA IND CAR MIN
MT: NYJ DET BAL JAC KC IND MIN HOU CIN TB
GT: DET JAC HOU TB SEA NE PHI TEN ARI SF
MS: SEA TEN SF NYJ CIN WAS NO GB DEN BUF
CP: CIN WAS GB DET TB NE PHI ATL CHI SD
LW: GB SD SF NYJ DEN BUF MIN NYG OAK DAL
JH: WAS TB NE CHI TEN NO ARI BAL CAR STL
MO: WAS TEN NO GB SD NYJ DEN DAL SEA PIT


Here are the game splits for the week:

DAL 5, TB 8
CIN 6, STL 1
MIA O, BUF 2
WAS 8, NYG 4
TEN 6, IND 3
SEA 9, CHI 5
GB 7, KC 5
CAR 3, HOU 9
NO 10, MIN 4
DET 8, OAK 5
CLE 1, ARI 3
NYJ 10, PHI 4
NE 9, DEN 5
BAL 10, SD 4
PIT 1, SF 5

Still no lines on MIA-BUF or PIT-SF...I'll send those when they are available.

Quick thoughts...

DAL might lose tomorrow. They are TURRIBLE on the road, TB is coming off an embarassing performance, I think this is an easy one.

I like CIN and TEN at bad teams on the road giving 7. But I bet one or both doesn't cover. I don't think either is worthy of being a TD fav on the road against anyone, so I avoided both. IND and STL are soooo bad that it seems like it might work out...I'm torn so I stayed away.

WAS +8 looks like another easy one to me. They just continue to get a TD+ in every game and they've actually played well the last few weeks. NYG coming off the letdown from the big DAL win...division game...all seems to favor the Skins.

Da Bears are dead. The loss last week was the last straw. This team has no QB and no confidence right now. SEA is actually playing quite well in a last ditch playoff push. I love the way they run the ball and play D...they may lose by a FG, but that's why +4 is a great number.

Every single double digit home dog this year has covered, so I had to take KC even though I could see this not working out. Orton is starting, but guess who the backup is...the one and only Dick Stanzi...yikes. The guy threw more pick 6's than I can count against the likes of ISU, IND, and NW...he could struggle against a ball-hawking GB D. Also KC could be in dump mode after firing Haley this week. But I picked them because I bet against the Packers every week and I'm a sucker for big points, especially at home. Hoping for a 21-7 fluke cover after the Pack pulls the first team at halftime.

CAR-HOU...no opinion. Seriously no clue what to expect in this one.

Aints at Purple seems like an easy one right. The whole Purple Nation is expecting the worst...terrible secondary against a prolific passing offense. Well, here are my reasons for being on the Purple: AD is back and the Aints are vulnerable against a run game, Aints suck on the road, Purple has nothing to lose and are getting over a TD at home. The line opened at 7.5 but has moved past the magic number of 7 to 6.5 at most sharp books. That tells me that some smaaat guys have put some substantial cash down on Purple Pride, which is good enough for me to try. In games like this where it seems like the favorite could name their number, it usually ends up just the opposite. I'm always skeptical of taking what look like obvious road favorites, it seems to backfire more often than not.

DET is another dead team in my opinion. OAK has gotten destroyed the last couple of weeks, so they should be ready in this one. DET hasn't played well in over a month, so why would that change now. I think they come into OAK and get beat easily.

CLE-ARI...no clue, but I do know Seneca Wallace is playing QB for CLE, which would work if they were playing Iowa, but since they're not I don't like CLE's chances.

Lots of JETS love this week, and I get it...they've looked good the last couple of weeks. That's why I'm against them this week and taking PHI. Eagles with Vick are a lot better than Eagles without Vick. There's still a ton of talent on that club, so I'm expecting a strong finish. Give me Eagles in this one with a short line.

Brady vs. Jesus...I know it looks obvious, but I am going against the obvious and taking Jesus and points at home. How can you not pick this guy right now? Until this crazy streak ends he'll be on my list each week...especially getting points at home against a team without a D. I expect NE to try and score a lot early and build a lead, but I honestly think even Jesus can throw against this D, so I'm taking the points. I have to believe the winning streak will end, but 6 points seems too much to be giving a hot team like DEN right now at home.

Great pair of evening games this week, first BAL at SD. I'm kind of back and forth on this one, but I still think BAL is a much better team. The fact that they are still motivated to get that division title and 1st round bye makes me like them in this one. SD is on their last leg, one more loss knocks them out...but I like the BAL D with Lewis coming back against anything Norv can throw out there. It should be a close one, but I'll take BAL.

The MNF game is also a fun one with PIT at SF. I like PIT to win, but with no line posted yet I had to stay away. It also sounds like Big Ben may be out, which may alter my pick. Batch is capable, but in a 16-13 slug fest like this is destined to be I don't like PIT's chances without Ben. I'll pick PIT, but with an asterisk.

Good Luck this week Guys - first batch of Bowl games is coming next.