Divisional Weekend Preview & Picks

Hope everyone has some big plans for the game on Sunday...I'll be imagining it in my mind on the plane to Mexico, but I'm hoping to get to see some of the 4th qtr...probably just a couple of kneel downs, right?

I'll be out of the country from Sunday - Friday night...so here are some contingency plans in case I am unable to publish lines on Monday morning.

If you do not receive the email with the lines, please just go to this site:

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/odds.aspx

Look at the opening lines for the 2 Championship games and email me your picks just like you always do. I will get a preview out on FRI night/SAT morning with a wrap-up of all the selections and possibilities for Championship Sunday.

I'm hoping to find a wi-fi connection and publish the email myself over my phone...but we'll see if that works or not.

Now, on to this weekend.

ARI
NO -7

This was the toughest pick of the week for me by far. It's so hard to bet against ARI when I know that they can be super streaky and play above their actual skill levels this time of the year. NO has a suspect D at times, and the whole world expects 1,000 points to be scored. However, I am going against the popular opinion and betting the under 57 for a total. I think the Superdome is one of those home fields that is a huge advantage to the Aints. They have looked so terrible since the NE MNF beatdown, that I feel that they HAVE to be ready to play and will show up. ARI can be prone to turnovers, so I'll put Sharper on 2 picks of the grocery bagger and an Aints win and cover...31-21.

Who you got? I guess nobody is with me on this one...8 of you on ARI, and me on NO...yikes. This one could make or break my post-season chances.

BAL
IND -7

Game 2 of our Saturday double-header I don't think will be really close. INDY at home is very tough, BAL had the game handed to them last weekend...which Peyton will not do on Saturday. The IND D is ok, nothing special, but I think they can shut down Ray Rice and force Flacco to beat them...which NE couldn't do last week. Manning will put up points because he always does. I think INDY comes out inspired against a BAL team that is out of gas and will not be in this one. INDY wins and covers 28-10.

Who you got? Good split here...I'm on the unpopular choice again with JG, AW, and MH. All else on the RAVENS.

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday

We'll start with the late game...

NYJ
SD -9

This was the easiest pick of the week for me...which is usually scary because I said the same thing about the Pack last week. But I just can't trust a SD team that can't run and plays very mediocre defense. The NYJ will run it well, and I think the #1 passing D will be able to contain the #1 passing O. The fact that this is a 9 pt line just makes it that much more appealing. J-E-T-S...I think they win outright or lose a very very close one...JETS 23-16.

Who you got? Minority vote is SD: MK, GR, MH all on the Super-Chargers. The rest of us like the JETS.

DAL
MIN -2.5

The big one...funny that the Purple is the favorite in this one when the whole world is betting against them. If you've listened to the radio or watched ESPN you have been bombarded with stats and match-up talk for this one for the last 4 days. I think it comes down to a few things: 1)Everyone is expecting the Purple to be able to run on this team and run very effectively. I think this might be a myth...we haven't run that well on anyone this year! Our running game is not that effective, even against an average run D like DAL. 2)Purple can take advantage of their weak secondary and throw well. Another myth...their pass D is better than ours, so what does that say about us? What scares me is that the whole world is picking DAL...and so am I. I was on them immediately, and I feel like changing now would not be right because the 1st instinct is usually right. Now I'm not a huge Phillips fan, but I really think I would take my chances with him over Chilly. Their pass rush should be able to get to Favre, and if we aren't able to run...well, the old man might leave the building on a stretcher. On the other side of the ball, I really am not impressed with the Purple D. Even talks about our DL...I guess I'm still waiting for them to show me why they are great. We can stop the run, so that will be to our advantage against a good running team...but we really need to hope the old Tony Romo shows up and gives us a couple of gifts. It's a very even match-up, but add in the fact that the head official for the game is from DAL, and our history against them, and Chilly's guaranteed incompetence at least 2-3 times during the game...I just don't have a good feeling. Everyone seems to be predicting an ARI-MIN NFC Title game...so I'm going the opposite...DAL at NO, the rematch that the national scene wants to see. Sorry.

Who you got? DAL is the minority pick, JR, MR, GR all like the Cowboys. The rest of you are bleeding Purple this weekend...and so am I. I really hope I'm wrong but with the way things have gone for the last, well forever I guess...I just can't pick the Purple to win this game.

Enjoy the (post) season. I'll be back in touch on FRI/SAT of next week when we'll be in full AFC/NFC Championship Game mode.

For your reference:
MK: 67 (ARI, BAL, MIN, SD) (all Div games are at 5 pts each this week)
SS: 61 (ARI, BAL, MIN, NYJ)
MC: 52 (ARI, BAL, MIN, NYJ)
JG: 49 (ARI, IND, MIN, NYJ)
GR: 49 (ARI, BAL, DAL, SD)
JR: 48 (NO, IND, DAL, NYJ)
MH: 48 (ARI, IND, MIN, SD)
MR: 43 (ARI, BAL, DAL, NYJ)
AW: 27 (ARI, IND, MIN, NYJ)

You can do the math after the weekend to see how things are shaping out.
10 pts/game next week
18 pts for Super Bowl
10 prop bet points for Super Bowl

48 left after this week.

Skol.