BCS Title Game and Wildcard Weekend Preview

First, we'll start with the title game.

TEX vs. ALA (-3.5)
This seemed to be one of the easier picks in a bowl game for me. ALA played so well against FLA, TEX played so poorly against NEB...looks like a no-brainer, right? Well, I didn't feel too confident...at first. If everyone loves one team I really start to get skeptical, but in looking at this club and looking at recent history I think the Tide are a safe bet. Saban is kind of a god, seriously, the guy is an amazing coach and there will be zero chance of them laying an OHIOST sized egg in the title game. I'm not 100% sold on Mack Brown being an elite coach. The squad is nice and they have tons of players all over the field, but I really think there is a heavy coaching edge toward Saban and Bama. I watched a 10 minute piece on Saban recently and maybe learned more about football in that 10 minutes than I have in my whole life. If I had another 100 lbs on me I'd be willing to go and play for the guy. Both offenses are pretty good, not elite, but good. ALA will run it and run it well. The can also throw a bit with some elite WR talent. TEX has the better QB, but their overall running attack isn't as strong and if McCoy is forced to play the NFL pocket passing game he may struggle. Defensively, TEX is much improved from what they have been in the past...but there is no doubt that the edge here goes to ALA. I don't think there is any way around it...ALA is the right pick here. It should be a good game because I think TEX will be coming out ready to play, especially as a Dog...but I'll take ALA 27-20.

Who you got? Most of you agree with me, but AW and MH are on TEXAS. We'll see if these 2 can make up some ground going into NFL weekend or if MK adds 5 more and the rest of us stick with him.

WILDCARD WEEKEND

NYJ-CIN (-2.5)
This one starts us off on Saturday afternoon. I'm disregarding last week, even though the Bungals tried a little more than I think people are giving them credit for. The major issues for this game: Sanchez is a rookie QB starting on the road (rookie QB's went 2-0 on the road in wildcard round last year to buck this trend), Rookie QB leads a horrible passing offense, both teams run it pretty well with a slight edge for NYJ, turnovers shouldn't be a huge factor for either as they haven't been all season long, the NYJ defense is elite (best against run and very good against pass). I also looked at pt diff and yd diff throughout the year. The Bungals only outscored their opponents by .9 ppg and 9.8 ypg while the JETS and that D outscored opponents by 7 ppg and 68.4 ypg. CIN is the worst AFC playoff team on these stats, which scares me. I also don't believe in Marvin Lewis because...well, why should I? They were hot early and won all those division games but have pretty much stunk down the stretch. While NYJ got hot (& lucky) and have an elite D and an attitude. These just all seem like really good things when coming into a playoff run. Plus, Rex Ryan knows the Bungals, he was with BAL for a number of years and has this club figured out.

The CALL: NYJ dominate on D and do enough on O to win this thing...17-7.

Who you got? JR, JG, MR on the JETS....all else like the home BUNGALS

PHI-DAL (-4)
The late night Saturday game is always a crazy one. Average guy says, DAL just beat the crap out of them last week when both were trying, why won't it happen again? I can't follow that logic, it just doesn't seem to work out that way in the NFL...especially with 2 teams that know each other this well. What are we looking at here...well, both offenses can be and have been really good. They are balanced and effective with the run and pass. Both run defenses are slightly above average, while the PHI pass defense has a disctinct edge over the DAL pass D, which is actually slightly below average. The stat that really jumped out to me was the turnover margin...DAL +2, PHI +15. Odds are that this trend will continue, so I really like that edge for PHI, especially if the old Romo shows up. SPT ratings are also a huge edge to PHI...3rd vs. 19th. Huge edge at K and the return game with Jackson. Pt Diff is about equal, DAL has a yd diff edge...but I don't think it counts for much. When you look at coaching it's the "we never win in the playoffs" Cowboys and an average at best coach in Phillips vs. the Eagles who have done nothing but win in the playoffs for as long as I can rememebr with Andy Reid.

The CALL: I really like PHI to come around and win this one...27-23.

Who you got? DAL is actually the least popular pick amongst us: AW, GR, MC on the Boys...all else like PHILLY.

SUNDAY
BAL-NE (-3.5)

This was probably the toughest game for me to pick this week. I try to make it a point to never bet against Belichick...especially in the playoffs. But I needed more...so here you go. Flacco has been shaky and their passing offense is hit or miss right now. But they run the ball extremely well, so Belichick will likely force them to throw a lot. NE does a little of everything, but with the Welker injury that passing game gets a big asterisk next to it...will they be able to recover from that? They can also run a little, but not to the level of BAL. Defensively is where there's a pretty big discrepency. NE is actually below average against the pass and pretty decent against the run, while BAL is very good against both. BAL also seems to have a SPT edge although neither are elite. Turnovers seem to be about equal, and weather could also be an issue in this one. I think NE will try to force BAL to throw it as much as possible, but I actually think that BAL has the personnel to do this and put up some points against a weaker than usual NE pass D. If weather is in play, it will be all about running the football for both sides, which gives BAL an advantage as well.

The CALL: Can't believe it, but I'm going with BAL in this one to win in decent weather 24-21.

Who you got? Good split here...MR, MK, AW, MC all on NE...rest on BAL w/me

GB-ARI (-2.5)
The final game of the weekend was the easiest pick for me. ARI is once again a suspect playoff team when you look at their stats. Very average offense, both running and passing, very average D in both respects as well. They outscored opponents by 3.1 ppg and were actually outgained on average this season by 3.4 ypg...only team in the playoffs with a bad number like that. ARI was also a -8 in turnover margin this season while their opponents, the Packers, were a ridiculous +24! That could be a huge issue in the game on Sunday afternoon. Warner is good for a couple of picks against a ball-hawking D and Beanie had been fumbling plenty lately as well. The Pack has a solid offense all around, I didn't realize they ran it so well, but I have them as the 2nd most effective running game in the league. Defensively they are far superior to the Cards as well being 13-15% above average. The one bad part of GB, besides being from Sconny, is their SPT...#32 in the league. They really do absolutely nothing well on SPT, which can play a huge role in the playoffs. But, I have overlooked this because of all the other advantages they have over ARI. I think the Pack comes out and does whatever they want on offense and force a couple of turnovers to keep this one from being close.

The CALL: PACK clean house and make this one over early...GB 34-17.

Who you got? Only 3 on the CARDS...JG, MH, SS...out of spite? All others on GB.

There you go, and extensive breakdown of exactly what will happen this weekend and tonight in the BCS Title game. Now you don't even need to watch.

Good Luck!