NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional Round

Week 2 of the NFL Playoffs are upon us. I'm not sure how you guys feel, but the games this week seemed brutally tough to pick. We are at a 9-7 split in all 4 games.

NO at SF (+3.5)
9 on NO, only 7 on SF (JR,AW,GR,TN,CP,LW,MO).
This was the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On the one hand you have the Saints and their crazy streak of scoring 40+ in 4 straight games and covering their last 9 in a row. They are playing better than anyone right now, and I thought there was no way I would bet against this team this week. However, every bit of research and digging I did led me toward the 49ers rather than NO. The only real reason I had for picking NO is because they are hot and I think they are the best team...not real scientific. Why SF? Lots of reasons...1)NO on the road on grass is not nearly the same club as NO on turf or on turf at home. 2) Defense wins titles...picking the better defense always seems to be a safe play in the playoffs, SF is far superior on D to NO. 3)Turnovers...SF is a +2.2 TO per game this year while NO is actually a -.5 per game. Do you know in the last 3 years how many teams with a negative TO margin made it past round 2...NONE. 4) The whole world is discounting SF, they went 13-3 and are getting 3.5 at home. A home dog in this round is EXTREMELY rare, and no doubt it will be a motivator. 72% of all bets are picking the Saints right now...a % that high qualifies the 49ers for the "nobody believes in us" status, which is a dangerous thing as a home dog. And since the spread usually doesn't come into play in these games, I'll call for an outright W for the 49ers.
CALL: SF wins 20-17...at least 4 Akers FG's make the difference.

DEN at NE (-13.5)
9 on DEN and 7 on NE (JR,AW,SS,RO,TN,GT,JH)
This was the easiest pick of the weekend for me. You have Tebow in off of a perfect storm, miracle type win...and then you have the best coach/QB combo in the game. Giving 13.5 in a playoff game is not ideal, but I think it will be a slam dunk. Why NE? 1)DEN coming in off of that big win as a big dog reminds me a lot of SEA last year after beating NO then flopping against the Bears. They have already done more than was expected, so getting that kind of juice going again this week is unlikely...and you are not at home and you are playing a rested, healthy, better team than PIT. 2)Turnovers. The only other negative TO team in the final 8 is DEN, while the Pats are +1.6/game. A huge difference. The way NE scores will likely force DEN to open it up if they get behind early, then the turnover issues will come into play. 3) NE is so due for a good playoff win. They have really struggled the last couple of years in the playoffs, so a lot of frustration will be coming out this week. 4) Belichick game planning to stop Tebow...I know the Pats D is not outstanding, but he'll come up with enough offense and intricate schemes on D to make Jesus struggle a lot in this one. The bottom line is DEN has NO CHANCE to win this game outright...yep, 0% chance. So if that's the case you have to take the home fav.
CALL: NE 38-10.

HOU at BAL (-7.5)
9 on HOU and 7 on BAL (MR,MH,SS,RO,TN,LW,JH)

I went with a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs in this one. In my mind, these 2 are pretty much the same team. Average to below average QB, great running games, big play WR's, and great defenses. I just feel like this has low scoring nail biter written all over it this weekend. Neither team trusts their QB enough to throw it 40 times, so there should be a heavy dose of conservative running attacks and safe TE and short WR passes. A lot of you have mentioned that you chose Ravens because of Yates being on the other side...well, I don't think Joe Flacco is actually that much of an upgrade from TJ. Both defenses are well above average and will likely cancel each other out. So the winner comes down to who makes the plays on offense. HOU's offense actually outperformed BAL by quite a large margin this year in YPP (5.8 vs. 5.3)(adjusted for HOU road and BAL home). I think they are more fearless and have more of a big play threat at this point, which makes them dangerous. The Ravens have not covered large lines all year (1-6 ATS as fav of more than 7). I think that's because they simply don't have the offensive ability to beat people by large margins. The only thing that could doom the Texans in this one is if the Ravens get a couple of D/SPT TD's, then a BAL cover is likely. But I am expecting a grinder of a game where the team that makes the first big play and least mistakes will take over and win.
CALL: HOU wins and covers 13-10.

NYG at GB (-7.5)
9 on NYG and 7 on GB (JG,SS,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)

This was another tough one for me. My numbers are saying GB wins a close one, so I played it like that by taking NYG, but I really don't have any idea what to expect. The major factors in my favor are 1)NYG are playing extremely well. 2) NYG have a far superior D and pass rush. 3)NYG have enough offense to keep up with GB and could make it a horse race. I'm scared that the Packers have kind of been under the radar for the last couple of weeks. And I'm scared that almost 70% of the bets have come in on NYG. The Pack will be rested, but they have some concerning injuries along the OL that might play into my favor with the fierce NYG pass rush. GB lives off of turnovers on D, Eli is typically very strong in the playoffs but he's been known on occasion to have issues throwing to the wrong color. I think it's in the NYG best interest to run the hell out of it when possible. The more the GB offense is on the bench, the better the chance you have to win. When NYG nearly beat them in the regular season, they were far from full strength on offense with really only 1 of their big 3 WR's healthy. That is not the case any more, so I think they will be able to match GB's explosiveness on offense. The NYG defensive injuries don't concern me, because honestly they won't really stop the Pack a lot even if they are 100% healthy. It will be a shootout, because that's what GB has been playing in all year long. I think it comes down to the wire, and I hope I'm wrong, but I think GB eeks it out.
CALL: GB wins, NYG cover...38-31.

It should be a great weekend of football to watch. Good luck to everyone!!