Championship Sunday Preview

The last day of the football season with multiple games to watch...so here's what we're rooting for on Sunday.

BAL at NE (-7.5)
9 on BAL and 7 on NE
NE (JR,JG,MR,AW,MC,RO,LW)

This was definitely the toughest call of the 2 for me. I started the week thinking NE, went to BAL for about 36 hours, and then settled on NE. I think you can make a case for both.
First, the case for BAL: Never in the last 4 years of playoffs and regular season have they been this large of an underdog in a game. Defense rules in the playoffs as a rule of thumb, and BAL definitely has the better defense. The case against BAL is this...Joe Flacco #1. He didn't do much to help them beat HOU, and granted he should be able to do more against a bad NE D, but after being called out by his own guys this week I don't expect anything great from him. BAL also has a tendency to turn the ball over on the road this year. Actually, they just don't play very well on the road in general only going 4-4 this year. Historically (the last 3 years), the team they plays better (wins by the largest margin) in the divisional round has won every year in the championship game...BAL struggled and only won by 7 while NE cruised. I do believe the line is very close to what the spread will actually finish at, but to buy BAL you have to be thinking that Flacco will play adequate, they won't turn it over, and the defense can limit NE enough to allow the BAL offense to keep up. BAL only averaged 24 ppg this season, but they only got blown out twice, so the odds of them keeping it within a TD are likely. With that being said, I went with NE. Why NE? In my mind, their superior offense is more of an advantage than BAL's superior defense. If I had to pick either unit (NE D or BAL O) to step up and play above their head for one game only I would take the NE D at home. Also, every team that has played a tight divisional playoff game (won by 7 or less) in the last 3 years has lost the next round. The trend I'm seeing is that Super Bowl teams have an easy time in the divisional round and don't sweat it until at least this week. BAL definitely does not fit that criteria. I hate picking against Brady/Belichick ever, especially in a big game like this. At -6.5 this is an absolute no brainer for me to take NE, but the -7.5 offers some doubt. NE has the look of a determined team that is driven to get back to prominance in the league, and there is also a revenge factor built in on this one for the beatdown BAL put on them last time they met in the Playoffs. Only 2 times in the last 3+ years has a team won the game and not covered the spread (BAL last week, and a certain Purple team at NO a couple of years back at +3.5) so I feel like it comes down to picking the team you think will win the game and don't be influenced by the points. So with that I have to take the home team, the better team, the better QB and the PATS to win.

CALL: NE wins 31-20. Brady plays like Brady, Flacco tries to prove to everyone that he is big-time and fails miserably against a brilliant Belichick defensive plan, and nobody covers Gronkowski.


NYG at SF (-2.5)
10 on NYG and 6 on SF
SF (MC,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)

I figured this one out just a few minutes after the 4th NYG TD at the silent Lambeau field last week. Nobody is playing like the G-Men right now. Eli is not turning it over, the WR's/OL/RB's are healthy and moving the ball. The defense is playing at the same level as the last Super Bowl run the NYG made and getting tons of pressure with their front 4. SF is coming off a "nobody gave us a chance" win last week against NO, which we've seen is the kiss of death for the next round in recent history. The QB battle is an easy one, Eli > Alex. I'll give it to Smith that he played better last week, but that's against a poor NO defense that blitzes every down and has holes in their coverage. And they totally shut down the 49ers offense for most of the game but allowed points in the end and on short fields after some of the 5ish TO's that NO committed. That won't happen this week. NYG won't turn it over like NO. The defenses are both very good, the weather sounds like it will be brutal, and the turnover battle is about even. The big difference here is on offense. You have a rookie HC with a QB who is in his first playoff run vs. a veteran HC with an elite QB. I've heard a lot of bad weather = advantage 49ers talk this week. I don't necessarily agree with that. Both teams are playing on the sloppy track, so I have a hard time giving an advantage one way or another. They can both play D and run the ball, typically the 2 major factors you look at in bad weather games.

CALL: I like NYG to win 23-20 in a tight game. Give me the better QB and the points with a team that is playing better than anyone against a team that won a fluky home game last week and has a ? at QB.

Both games are worth 5 points this week for a 10 point week in total. Here are the standings once again coming into the week:

POST-SEASON W
JR 50
CP 44
TN 43
GT 43
AW 41
MC 40
MT 40
SS 39
GR 37
RO 37
MR 36
MH 35
LW 33
JG 29
MO 27
JH 26
MS 0

I have a 6 point lead, but could be passed this week by CP is he sweeps with his BAL/SF picks. 20 points available next week (10 for game, +10 single point props) so lots of room left to grow for those of you that have some extra ground to make up. Plus I'm 8-0 in the playoffs so far, so I'm bound to go 0-2 this week right?

Good Luck.