Week 7 Pick Summary

The final tune-up before VEGAS week...god knows we need it. Let's hope for some good things this week.

JR: LOU, A&M, UK, TEX, UAB, IDAHO, WIS, BOISE, SDST, HAW (ONLY 2 FAVS!)
JG: BC, ILL, FLA, ALA, MIA, ND, USC, MICH, ISU, OHIOST
MR: KAN, PUR, MISST, ALA, ND, IOWA, WIS, AUB, BOISE, WASH
AW: KST, LOU, PITT, A&M, PUR, TEX, TT, NAVY, WKY, FIU
GR: KST, MN!!, SC, ALA, TEX, IOWA, OK, OHIOST, AUB, BOISE
MH: KST, MSU, PUR, NEB, CAL, MICH, WIS, ARK, OREST, NEV
MC: CMU, TEM, BALLST, OHIO, BUFF, IDAHO, WKY, TOL, FIU, SDST
SS: PITT, A&M, PUR, FLA, ALA, MIA, OKST, USC, OK, OREST
RO: WV, PITT, A&M, PUR, FLA, SC, ALA, IOWA, BYU, OHIOST

Consensus Picks for NCAA
ALA - 5

And that's it. I didn't pick it, but I like it. This team doesn't like to lose, so I'm guessing they'll rebound quite nicely.

NFL PICKS

JR: SEA, NYJ, OAK, MIN, TEN
JG: CLE, DET, STL, OAK, IND
MR: SEA, DET, STL, OAK, MIN
AW: ATL, DET, NYJ, MIN, IND
GR: ATL, NYG, BAL, NO, MIN
MH: BAL, KC, NYJ, MIN, IND
MC: PHI, NE, NYJ, IND, TEN
SS: PIT, BAL, MIN, IND, TEN
RO: BAL, NO, OAK, MIN, IND

Consensus Picks
NYJ - 4
OAK - 4
MIN - 7!
IND - 6

I have 3 of these in my hand this week...a guaranteed 1-2 or 2-1 but no chance at a 3-0 is my guess. I like the IND pick as well. Whatever happens, let's hope the most popular pick isn't the one to fail...we have to win this week, right?!?!


HEADSCRATCHER OF THE WEEK
The most popular Football Challenge topic is back after a 1 week hiatus. This week I'll pick on my buddy MR. He has MISST at +8.5 at FLA, now let me tell you why this can't possibly be the right side in this thing. FLA at home against an inferior team coming of 2! straight losses, unheard of in Gainesville. They also have the revenge factor of nearly getting embarassed in Starkville last year against their former OC Dan Mullen, the head man at MISST. The number is good for MISST, but I have to believe that FLA is going to explode one of these weeks - and after 2 straight L's and a major letdown against LSU last week in a fluky last second loss...the time is now! FLA 38 MISST 14

THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW
I looked back over the last 2 years of weeknight games, and on those nights where there is more than 1 game here were the results: 1 dog and 1 fav covered each time except for 3 weeks out of about 20 occurances. 17 of 20 is a nice %, so the question is which dog and which fav do we go with tonight.

First, we have a rivalry game - KST at KAN with a home dog in this one. The other is USF at WV getting 11.5. Standard logic would say pick both home teams, one is a dog and one is a fav...can't lose. Well, I have looked through multiple angles on both of these and came to the conclusion of liking both dogs...but since I have to play the odds and pick one of each I'll take KAN +3.5 and WV -11.5.

SC at UK - the ultimate letdown game!
How am I the only one on UK this week? Has there ever been a bigger letdown spot in the history of football? Well, that's probably a stretch, but seriously...SC beats the best team in the nation in a huge emotional win that might finally push Spurrier over the top at SC and make some national noise, and now they go on the road to a pesky UK team as a 6 pt fav. Yikes. UK just played AUB to a FG last week, and they have some fire power (36 ppg). SC is likely 6 pts better than UK in Lexington, but under these circumstances, I think that it's impossible for them to play at their usual level this week and UK will be desperate for an SEC win at 0-3 in conference. The lines are correct, it's all about choosing who will over play or under play their potential in a given week...and this week SC will be down.

TEXAS as a 9.5 point dog is just too juicy not to try. I know NEB has looked great, but getting one of the Top 15 teams in the country with 9.5 points is a nice spot.

CAL will beat USC. I didn't play it, but it would make my VEGAS list if that was this week. USC is bad, CAL plays really well on D and should have no problem scoring on USC. USC and 3 straight L's...sounds funny.

HAIL TO THE VICTORS!!
My guy Shoelace has a chance this week to really get some Heisman attention. I'll call for him to get 450 total yards and beat IOWA. Not a lot to back this up, more of just pure hope...because WHO HATES IOWA?...I HATE IOWA!!!

BYU is getting 29.5 at TCU...wow, that might be a record. Only RO touched this one, which means nobody knows what the hell to think...including me. How has it gotten this bad this fast at Mormon U?

OHIOST-WIS
Becky isn't that good, but they'll get up for this spot against Brutus. 6 points too much, I think TPRY will have his moments and still win this game, but a BECKY cover is very likely. They need to save their best effort for next week against the Hogeyes!

BOISE giving anything is a good bet. They might work their way into a weekly play for me no matter who they are playing or how high the number is. 39 this week on the road...I'm not afraid. BOISE 77 SJST 13.

HAW continues to get points when it shouldn't. I know NEV is a nice little club, but seriously with an O/U of 74, neither team should be favored by 8. HAW covers and win this one outright making people in BOISE cry again.

Absolutely loving a lot of NCAA plays this week...finally. I've been off a lot lately on NCAA, so time to pick it up.


NFL
Opinions for every game on SUN/MON

ATL-PHI: I'm going upset on this, ATL is cruising too much and trying to separate themselves in the NFC, which isn't possible. PHI wins outright.

CLE-PIT: If you're not picking PIT in a suicide pool this week you are on crack. Even at 13 I'm in love with PIT against Colt McCoy.

SEA-CHI: SEA off a bye, and they have a great coach (I don't care what you think about Carroll, he's great). Bears had no business winning last week, now Dopey the Dwarf is back running the show...and they'll lose outright.

DET-NYG: NYG are valued too high, DET is not as bad as it seems...play the LIONS.

BAL-NE: toughest call of the week for me. NE off a BYE is LETHAL! But BAL should be able to exploit their porous pass D. But I hate going against Belichick off a BYE...take the Friggin' Pats.

SD-STL: SD on the road. STL off a bad blowout against the LIONS...getting 9.5...I should have put this one in my picks. STL may have a chance to win.

MIA-GB: will this game even happen? Still no line on it. Did A-RODGERS die? Is Don Majakowski his back-up? Will the Packers be trying out players up until gametime in hopes of fielding a full roster? I'll take MIAMI.

NO-TB: NO has covered just as many times as I have this year, which would be never. But they continue to give points on the road. Well, I picked TB last week, and I think they lost all their magic. NO has to get it figured out...not convinced that it's this week...but I'll call for a slim cover.

KC-HOU: another straight up upset call for me. KC is a good looking team. They run the ball well and play a lot of D. HOU are who we thought they were. Flashy offense, lack of D, mediocre team. I'll take KC with points to win.

NYJ-DEN: NYJ off a MNF game on the road, typically a trap spot, but I think the difference between these teams is so large that I can't give DEN a chance in this thing. NYJ will roll once again and they might kill Orton, which would mean we could all be blessed with the chosen one in a starting QB role next week!! That makes me giddy...think of the Vegas props that would be out for a Tebow start next week. Please make this happen. Pick JETS.

OAK-SF: SF is still 0-5 and terrible. But they are giving 8 points at home to a decent Raider team? WTF? Bet RAIDERS HEAVY!!

IND-WAS: Peyton at night...21-3. Only giving a FG to a slightly overrated WAS team...yep, take INDY.

TEN-JAC: This seems like one of the best plays on the board. JAC is not a good team, they've won 2 in a row by blowout fashion (ATS) and you can't do that 3 weeks in a row in the NFL. They'll draw 4200 people for this MNF game, and TEN is one of my sneaky teams that I love. Pick TEN.

Okay - now for the 2 biggest games of the weekend.

LAME DUCK BREW at BOILER UP
Well, I'm not really sure at all about what kind of an effort we'll get in this one. The team had chances last week but looked defenseless when it mattered in the 2nd half. The BOILERS beat NW in a close one, although they have yet to look really good all year long. Our offense is boring, but it's not the problem. Their offense just plain sucks. So it's strength against strength and weakness against weakness in this thriller that will feature both BOB and BRIAN Griese in the booth together for the 1st time...fun stuff. I'll expect a bad offense to even move the ball on a bad defense, and I'll expect a good defense to put the clamps on an average offense...both bad things if you're a Gopher fan. Plus the karma that the great BOB Griese will give to his alma mater and the seemingly endless string of ineptitude he has brought us over the last couple of years...this might be bad. So bad that we can be getting over 2 TD's at home against PSU next week? Maybe not, but that's what I'm thinking about.

GOPHERS 23 BOILERS 33
We can't stop anyone...ever.

LAME DUCK PHILLIPS at Coach Favr...I mean CHILLY
I can't come up with any way that the Purple lose this game. Despite the negativity coming out of MNF, I thought we really figured a lot of things out. Our passing game looked like it was 2009 again, and I think our D is a lot better than it's getting credit for at this point. The 'Boys are a ticking time bomb that will be set to detonate at 1-5 with losses to MIN and NYG in the next 2 weeks. Call me out if I'm wrong on this one, but I love the Purple. I made 1 Bodog bet this weekend...entire bankroll on Purple -1.5 (not that my bankroll is large any more with my consistent losing, but it sounds good, right).

PURPLE 31 'BOYS 21

We're comin'! We're comin'!!