Thursday, April 28, 2011

NFL Draft Day 1

So I guess the Draft starts tonight, but for me this event is not anywhere close to what it once was only 2 years ago. The Draft is meant to be an all day Saturday/Sunday marathon celebration/bitch fest...not 3 individual evenings starting on a Thursday as an option for what's on and not the only thing on. I think it's dumb, but yeah, obviously I'll still watch.

First, I found our first official prediction about the upcoming season for Kill Nation, and I'm kind of surprised. But in a good way, I hope this guy is right.

Here's the link:
http://www.bigtensportswatch.com/?p=690

If you don't have time to click the link, the guy calls for 8-4 and a potential run at the Legends Division Crown!! Holy shit, I'm not sure I could even be this optimistic. If he's 100% right and we go 8-4 with wins over WIS and IOWA I might be the most excited guy in the world. How quickly would the Gopher fan base quadruple if this happens?!?! Anyway, on an otherwise brutally gloomy day, I thought this might get you a little excited...worked for me.

Next item on the list - Football Challenge rule changes. I've had a good proposal thrown over by SS...let me know what you think about this:
Each week, instead of the 10 NCAA/5 NFL games, should we make it a little more flexible and pick 5 NCAA/5 NFL/ 5 of your choice, made up of a mix of NFL/NCAA games in whatever balance you want. Let me know what you think if you are strongly for it or against it and we'll make a ruling in the coming months.

Finally, back to the initial topic of NFL Draft 2011. What do I think will happen? I nailed the Chris Cook pick last year, so I guess I'm 1 for 1. So sitting at 12, what will the Purple get this year...this is tough. Obviously, QB is need #1 but whether they go that way in the draft or FA I'm not sure. Our history says find a grizzled FA vet and let him play for 2-3 years then repeat. How do good teams do it, well, they find a guy in the draft and make him the franchise or trade something of value for a young QB who takes them to the promised land. Look at the 12 playoff teams of last year, they all fit in these 2 categories. I guess you could put NO as an outlier, because they acquired Brees via FA but he was young at the time and the ponied up the cash to get him. It's nearly impossible to fall into a great QB without giving up value in a trade or making him a top pick. There aren't many 6th round Tom Bradys out there that just happen. So with that being said, the Purple have these options. 1) Draft a young guy in Round 1 and give him the keys. It has to be a guy that they LOVE and believe can run this thing from the start. 2) Make a trade/FA play for a younger guy who can plug in and be the guy for the next 5 years. 3) Trade/FA for a grizzled vet (DMcNabb) and stay in the mediocre/garbage tier of the NFL until DMc retires in 2 years and we're back in the same spot. 4) Draft a QB in round 2-7 and hope for the best...we've been there and we're not that lucky, so what makes you think it will change this year.

BEST CASE
We get our QB at 12 as he falls down the board and it's a guy we love. I think that means Gabbert or Locker, probably nobody else. Dalton/Ponder intrigue me a bit, but not at #12. I hope we are in love with either Gabbert or Locker and we land him and love him for the next 10 years.

If our QB is gone, don't force it. I want love going OL or CB here - 2 areas where we have been terrible for a couple of years now.

Trading down is not a bad option if it means acquiring another nice pick to sure up multiple spots (Ponder/Dalton QB and add a nice OL/CB at end of R1 or R2.

I'm not 100% against trading for Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer or something like that, but it's not my first choice and it's not a sure thing at this point. They don't know that they can make that happen at this point, so I think it's tough to go into Monday morning without a new QB on the roster.

WORST CASE
Reach for non-Gabbert/Locker QB at 12 and he bombs. Trade back and miss out on our guy, regardless of position. Ignore QB and get McNabb. Take a late round QB and expect big things. Trading up for Newton would also be brutal - I don't like him at all in the NFL and he will not be good.

SUICIDE SCENARIO
QB Dick Stanzi in round 4...I'm done with the Purple if this happens. We are already over our Hogeye limit on this roster.

What will happen?
Newton goes #1, Gabbert doesn't get past the Top 10 and we don't go up to get him. Locker also goes before us as a surprise, so we're left for taking the best player on the board...which is the Husker Price Amukamara or something like that.

I think we end up with him at #12 and try to sneak back into the late R1 to snag Dalton/Ponder. My preference is Ponder there, I really like him and think he could legitimately be a starter in the league. If I go to bed tonight with those 2 on my squad I will be very happy.

What do you guys think? Are you happy with Locker if we get him? Do you like Mallett? I hate him in the NFL. Will Jerry Kill win 8 this year or 9!?!? Can football season please start this weekend?

Much discussion tomorrow and next week. Enjoy the show tonight.

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