AFC Preview 2010

Holy Crap! It's almost August and I haven't thrown out a preview for anything yet...so I figured I'd start with the NFL and crank out my AFC Preview this afternoon.

EAST

NE - this, as always, is my favorite to win the AFC. After a slightly down year by Belichick/Brady standards, this team will be ready to roll and step on some throats this season. They actually played really well against a very tough schedule last season, they have a very talented yet young and unproven defense, and they have the man with the cut off sleeves...which might be all you need. They will win the East and the AFC.

MIA - this is a club I do like. They played the 2nd toughest schedule in the league last season and still almost made the playoffs. Henne will be in year 2, and actually he performed much better than Mr. San-cheese last season. They had an average passing game last year and now they add Marshall to the mix with a good coach and more of a disciplinarian staff, he might be real nice in 2010. The D struggled at times last year...enter Mike Nolan. He can bring this group back to respectability. They are creative, they run the ball really well, and now I think they will be able to throw it well, too. The D will improve and the Fins have a shot at a WC spot this year, I'll pick them to make it.

NYJ - wow, the bandwagon is full on this club. Everyone is expecting HUGE things out of this club based on the way they finished 2009. I don't. Rex and his style doesn't last...his dad tried the same thing and that didn't end well. Sanchez was really not good last season, and although he'll be improved he still can't win anything this year. What about all the additions? Well, you have an unhappy Revis to team with Crazy Cromartie...nice talent, but very questionable locker room mix. Then let's add in Braylon and Santonio with our 2nd year already larger than life in his own mind QB. We dumped our RB and added LT...face it guys, LT is done and done. The man is less than a shell of his former self, so don't expect any major bounce back season...it won't happen. The D is good, but this team got lucky to even make the playoffs last season and the brash attitude with an emotional coach is a recipe for disaster. They could sneak in as a playoff team once again, but stop planning the parade route.

BUF - maybe the biggest sure thing on the board this season is picking BUF 4th in the East. Chan Gailey takes over, yep...that won't help. Their offense was terrible last season, and it will be again this year. They can't throw the ball, which equates to disaster in today's NFL. The defense has some bright spots, but this team isn't even on the same planet as the other 3 in the East. It's going to be another long one in the big city of Buffalo.

NORTH

BAL - I love this team. They were extremely good last year and lost more than their share of close games (2-5 decided by 1 score). They have a good coach, heady young QB, and they can run it well. The passing game has been kind of average...but I think that will change in a big way this season. Anquan Boldin will totally change the way you defend this team. Offensively, they should be elite. Does anyone even question their defense? Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses that forces a ton of turnovers every year. I love them as the North champ, and I am tempted to take them as my AFC Super Bowl representative.

PIT - I still love Mike Tomlin, and I think he does a great job...but this team is kind of a mess right now. The Big Ben saga has been well chronicled, he'll be out for likely the opening 4 games...3 of which are against good teams. So this team will be digging out of a hole early once again. In 2009 PIT really had a hard time running the ball effectively, this must change to improve...especially with QB questions. They also lose Santonio Holmes, which can't help the offense either. They lost 7! games by one score or less in 2009, so they were obviously close. In another division I don't put them at #2, but with the Bungals and Browns behind them I didn't have a choice. Non-playoff year #2 for Tomlin and company.

CIN - I know what you're thinking..."they got TO and Ocho Cinco, they can't be stopped!" Wrong. TO is really about as valuable as LT right now. They had a very hard time scoring points last season, and I look for that to be the case again. The went 6-3 in close games, so that will come back to the pack a bit. The defense overall is good, but they struggle to stop the run. I just don't think much of this club and I am writing off last season to a batch of good luck. This is a .500 team at best in 2010.

CLE - why did they keep Mangenius? They got hot toward the end of last year, and I guess it was enough to keep this bozo around. The offense was HORRIBLE in 2009, but now they have Jake Delhomme and it will maybe actually be worse. Delhomme has proven over the last 3 years that he's not an NFL QB, so why did CLE grab him as their starter...because it's Cleveland, don't ask questions. Their defense is beyond atrocious, and based on the lack of changes in the off-season, they plan to keep it that way. Put them in the Top 5 for NFL Draft 2011 right now.

SOUTH

IND - boring pick, I know. But if you look at history you can't possibly pick anyone else in this spot. This team just continues to win 11-13 games every year and then take their chances in the Playoffs. I was skeptical of Caldwell last season, but he proved me wrong. Maybe it helped that he has one of the best ever playing QB for him? Last year was silly, they went 7-0 in close games and didn't lose until they didn't really care anymore. The D was only average last season, which scares me for a top flight Super Bowl contender. The run defense was really bad, and now Bob Sanders might be never coming back...this smells like trouble. But not enough trouble for Manning to not win another AFC South crown.

TEN - I love Jeff Fisher. He's been a really great coach with really marginal talent for quite a while now. Last year the 0-6 start pretty much ended all hope, but the 8-2 finish peaked everybody's interest for this season. VY became the QB, hands down he was more effective than Collins. Vince's win may not be pretty, but the guy wins a lot of games in one way or another...which I love. The defense was shockingly bad last season, but that will likely improve. Great running game, and a great coach put these guys at #2 for me in the South and get them in the playoffs as a dangerous WC team.

HOU - this team feels like it is so close every year but they just can't get over that hump. Schaub finally stayed healthy, and magically they almost made the playoffs. This is a team who really struggles to run the ball effectively. They played a very easy schedule last season and still couldn't sneak into the playoffs. I have to believe the running game will improve a bit, and as long as Schaub and AJ stay healthy the offense should score some points. The D is full of young talent, but in the whole scheme of things I rate them as a middle of the pack unit. Another near miss on the playoffs this season for HOU.

JAC - team trainwreck alert. These guys have all the makings of a complete disaster this season. Coach on the hot seat who should have already probably been fired, offense that can't throw with a below average QB and no WR's, no pass defense whatsoever last season (#32 in NFL), and they are coming off a lucky season in which 6 of their 7 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of their first 6 are against potential playoff teams...Del Rio doesn't survive the whole season and the dumb guy closes it out as the interim coach.

WEST

SD - in one of the worst division in all of football, this is the only bright spot. But even this club should be down a bit from last season. They went 6-1 in close games last year and did it without any kind of a running game. Rivers is great, and the passing game could be #1 again this year - but I also think the running game will pick back up now that the old man has finally left the team. The defense, however, was not too strong in 2009. They really struggled against the run, and what was an average pass defense has likely gotten worse with the Cromartie loss. There should be plenty of points scored in their games this season, but in the AFC West there can be no other pick besides SD with taking some really good drugs.


KC - I have a hard time saying this, but I kind of like this team in 2010. I think Haley might be an okay coach, and I know the coordinators will work out for him. Weis and Crennel seemed to flourish in those roles before even though they were epic failures as HC's. They lost 6 lose games last season and only scored 18 ppg. You have to believe Chuck will turn that around. Cassell could work out okay, I think they are fine with him at QB. They have some weapons offensively to work with as well. On D, they couldn't stop the run last season, which kills any team at any level. The front 7 is loaded with high picks and the secondary should also be improved...I look for this D to be pretty good with the new leadership of Crennel. Not a contender for the playoffs this year, but not the embarassment of 2009 again either.

DEN - another team that I think might have a trainwreck type of a season. They play enough bad teams to keep the record decent, but this team doesn't seem to have a clue of what it wants to do. I mean Tim Tebow? Really? They only scored 20 ppg last season, and I don't see that going up considering Kyle Orton is still their guy at QB and they traded Marshall, their biggest playmaker. The running game was all kinds of worthless last season, and it probably will be again. McDaniels is trying to run a Patriot like offense with him as Belichick and Orton as Brady...I think that's a bad idea. Defensively, they are okay and play the pass really well. This will keep them in games, but don't expect anything from this club in 2010.

OAK - I heard M&M this morning talking about how they kind of like this club in 2010. Why?!? It's the Raiders! They scored 10 or less points 7! times last season!! That's like 1/2 the games! The have Jason Campbell running the show, who I like, but the guys around him are still below average. The defense was not solid last season either, and I doubt it will be this year. I was tempted to put them over the Broncos, but I just can't until I really see some changes.

So in summary: NE, BAL, IND, SD, MIA, TEN as my playoff teams with NE in the big one but BAL as a very very close 2nd.

Thoughts?

NFC coming next week.