Monday, September 29, 2008

Week 5 Results

Ok - that was rough. NCAA week 5 games...WTF!?!?

This was by far our worst performance of the season - here's how ugly it was:
Overall 21-39 (.350), NCAA 13-27 (.325), NFL 8-12 (.400)
JR and JG split the titel for the week at a putrid 6-9 mark. MR takes 3rd at 5-10, MK in the cellar at 4-11.

We also set a couple of low water marks for weekly lows, Congrats to MK for tying my NCAA low of 2 wins in week 2. And congrats to MR for setting a new low on NFL wins with a tough 1-4 performance yesterday.

Overall, Roe continues to have an 5 game lead over JG, 8 over MK, and 11 over JR.

JG continues to rock NFL picks at 13-7 overall...above .500 every week - NICE!
MK is only a game behind him in NFL picks at 12-8. MR and JR are both 9-11.

Roe is still +15 on NCAA picks at 35-20. Nobody else is over .500...JG 26-29, JR and MK both at 24-31.

Total we are +4 over .500 combined for the season on all picks...thanks MR!

Okay, so what the hell happened this week. College football was a bizarre watch, what little I saw this weekend. Shocking isn't enough to describe some of the upsets on Saturday and Thursday.

Once again, I rocked in the "pick every game" challenge going 30-17 (.638), but chose a lot of bad games for my 10 this week.

GOOD PICKS
JG - OREST. Wow. I never expected a straight up victory on this one. The Thursday night curse was defintely in play, but how about all the morons who were pissed that the season was "over" after USC pounded OSU? The Torjan run defense was brutal, and Sanchez looked like a bit of a train wreck. Also, how to you try to play 6 RB's and split the carries - ridiculous! OREST isn't bad, but this one was comletely unpredictable.

JG - GOPHERS! nice back door cover on this one. The game went pretty much as I anticipated. We couldn't do much against that defense, and they ran well with Pryor and Wells to dominate and win. It was nice to get a couple of late ones to make it respectable. Honestly, this and in Madison are the only unwinnable games on the schedule, not that we should go 10-2, but I wouldn't be shocked with 8 wins considering how bad a lot of the B10 has looked.

MR and MK - NW! who hates IOWA, we hate IOWA! How bad was this loss for Cap. Kirk and the overrated Hawkeyes. NW is playing nice right now, but you don't lose a B10 opener to them at home. I still like the Gophs to beat them, and Iowa. The offense continues to suck, and the Cats porous defense couldn't be exposed by a pathetic QB perfomance by the dual headed monster Ferentz continues to employ.

JG - OLE MISS? WTF...how did this happen. I thought 23 was a little high for a spread but to lose straight up at home to a 2nd tier SEC club? Gator defense had looked so good - what happened? Tebow and Co. should have been able to score at will, but the defense should not have given up 31 to Ole Miss. Bad loss but since they are in the SEC this does not eliminate them.

MR - OK SOONERS - this wasn't close. I had a tough time deciding on this game. How fun is that OK-TEX game shaping up to be on VEGAS weekend!!

MR - MISS.ST - another one I didn't see coming. They didn't straight up win, but I gave them no chance at even covering based on their performance this year, and what has happened before on their trips to Baton Rouge.

JR - Super Obscure easy wins (SDST, NM, NILL, BGSU) all of my winners this week were under the radar games, which I seem to have the best luck with. I think when the talent level isn't at an SEC level the games are much more predictable, I might play this strategy the rest of the year.

BAD PICKS
Where do we start on this one...

How about JG and UCF? - Going into a winless UTEP as a 5 point favorite and losing by 45...ouch. I liked UCF in this one as well, but being off by 50 points is probably one of the biggest misses of the year.

JR and MK - TOLEDO...so they housed EMU 41-17, nearly beat Fresno at home, then they welcome in a brutal 0-3 FIU club that gave up 42 to an offensively challenged IOWA team...-18.5, no problem - FIU wins easily 35-16. Fuck logic, time to start flipping coins I guess.

MR and MK - PURDUE - this is not a good team. I have moved this game to the winnable list for Brew's Crew this year. I liked ND in this game, but not because they are any good, it's because PUR is that bad. They looked like they had something against ORE, but struggling with CMU and not being close at ND has moved this team down quite a few nothces. At least they only have PSU and OSU up next, 2-4.

JR and JG - BECKY - we should know better, we really should. In a week in which the Gophs were expected to lose, we came out looking like the biggest winners of the area teams over BECKY and IOWA. Up 19-0 at half when I started watching, and losing this game to a still bad MICH club could be a season killer. OSU and PSU coming into Madison next 2 weeks - sounds like an 0-3 start in the B10 for Bulemia and BECKY!! ha, ha!

JR/MK/JG - AUBURN - how dare we go with a favorite of 6.5 in the SEC...come on guys we should know better! AUB offense is officially bad, I need to stop picking them. By the way, TEN is now 1-3...Fulmer, your ass is burning right now.

JR and MK - Loo-Ville - why. I continue to get on the wrong side of the rolelr coaster with this team. If I pick them, they lose, if I don't they win. I think I'll just avoid their games from now on. They do play at MEM the evening of our arrival in VEGAS...what should we do?

MK - INDIANA. Bad, bad team. this should be a must win for the Gophs next week, because the Hoosiers are very bad right now. No run defense, no pass defense, Lewis can't throw the ball. MSU looked impressive in coasting to their 4th straight win, but IND may be the doormat of the conference this year.

RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM THE WORLD OF NCAA FOOTBALL
- Quick, name the 4 undefeated teams in the SEC...BAMA, LSU, and umm..ah..yep, that's right KENTUCKY and VANDY - is the power shifting?
- Texas has won 3 games this year by a score of 52-10
- Duke is 3-1, no basketball season hasn't started yet
- Virgina is scoring 9 pts/game against stiff competition (USC, RICHMOND, UCONN, DUKE)
- A&M will not win another game this year
- ILL is 0-3 vs. the spread this year
- OHIOST is 0-4 vs. the spread
- UK is giving up 5.5 pts/game this year

UNDEFEATED TEAMS LEFT
OK, OKST, TEX, MIZZ, TXTECH, UCONN, USF, NW, PENNST, BAMA, UK, LSU, VANDY, TULSA, BALLST, BYU, UTAH, BOISE - that's it, only 18 teams left

WINLESS TEAMS
WASH, ARMY, N.TEXAS - only 3. WASH is in nice company!

NFL RECAP
Vikes continue to suck, not a shocker there. I honestly think, if the Maroon and Gold can roll through an 8-4 kind of season, the state will officially become a Gopher fan base instead of a Viking fan base. When you look at how things are trending for the Purple it's really hard to get excited about anything on Sunday's anymore. While the Gophs have a new stadium, and improving team, and an exciting product to watch. Maybe I'm dreaming, but you all know where my allegiance lies.

NFL THOUGHTS
- don't ever let me bet on AZ again...Kurt "the turnover machine" Warner looked nice, if you forget about the 7 turnovers he accounted for...yep, 7!
- CIN and CLE are both really bad. I know, this isn't breaking news.
- DEN might be a pretender. They literally can't stop anyone. When Damon Huard and the Chefs roll up 33 on you, the defense is an issue. They will not be going anywhere in the playoffs with a defense like this.
- 76 yard FG trys...awesome.
- Linehan = DEAD. it was a good run. Do you think he and Daunte want to come back?
- Cowboys...hmmm, NFC East might be tough this year. I have the Redskins as a distant 4th, but that might not be right.
- Bears. Can't believe they won this game - could they be the North favorite right now?
- The Pack goes down again...TB is the TEN of the NFC, they never look like they have a great squad coming into the season, but always find a way to be a playoff team. Coaching might be the common denomonator here...both Gruden and Fisher rock.
- JAX can't play a game with a spread larger than 3...remember this for future betting.

NFL continues to be very unpredictable, not a surprise. We have one more week to look at it before we need to come up with some solid opinions on VEGAS.

Vikes never had a chance yesterday. Defense was disappointing, but offense continued to not do any favors. Sadly, I think this will continue. If we can't score much next Monday at NO, then our offense might not score on anyone. A loss there might even put the VEGAS game against the Millen-less Lions in doubt in my mind.

All right - these seem to continue to get longer every week, but it's getting into crunch time where we start separating the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL and NCAA. Should be fun.

Later Guys - I'll post the Week 6 games when I have them, and I'll send out a VEGAS prep email this week as well so we can coordinate everything for next FRIDAY.

Have a good one.

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