Holy Crap! It's almost August and I haven't thrown out a preview for anything yet...so I figured I'd start with the NFL and crank out my AFC Preview this afternoon.
EAST
NE - this, as always, is my favorite to win the AFC. After a slightly down year by Belichick/Brady standards, this team will be ready to roll and step on some throats this season. They actually played really well against a very tough schedule last season, they have a very talented yet young and unproven defense, and they have the man with the cut off sleeves...which might be all you need. They will win the East and the AFC.
MIA - this is a club I do like. They played the 2nd toughest schedule in the league last season and still almost made the playoffs. Henne will be in year 2, and actually he performed much better than Mr. San-cheese last season. They had an average passing game last year and now they add Marshall to the mix with a good coach and more of a disciplinarian staff, he might be real nice in 2010. The D struggled at times last year...enter Mike Nolan. He can bring this group back to respectability. They are creative, they run the ball really well, and now I think they will be able to throw it well, too. The D will improve and the Fins have a shot at a WC spot this year, I'll pick them to make it.
NYJ - wow, the bandwagon is full on this club. Everyone is expecting HUGE things out of this club based on the way they finished 2009. I don't. Rex and his style doesn't last...his dad tried the same thing and that didn't end well. Sanchez was really not good last season, and although he'll be improved he still can't win anything this year. What about all the additions? Well, you have an unhappy Revis to team with Crazy Cromartie...nice talent, but very questionable locker room mix. Then let's add in Braylon and Santonio with our 2nd year already larger than life in his own mind QB. We dumped our RB and added LT...face it guys, LT is done and done. The man is less than a shell of his former self, so don't expect any major bounce back season...it won't happen. The D is good, but this team got lucky to even make the playoffs last season and the brash attitude with an emotional coach is a recipe for disaster. They could sneak in as a playoff team once again, but stop planning the parade route.
BUF - maybe the biggest sure thing on the board this season is picking BUF 4th in the East. Chan Gailey takes over, yep...that won't help. Their offense was terrible last season, and it will be again this year. They can't throw the ball, which equates to disaster in today's NFL. The defense has some bright spots, but this team isn't even on the same planet as the other 3 in the East. It's going to be another long one in the big city of Buffalo.
NORTH
BAL - I love this team. They were extremely good last year and lost more than their share of close games (2-5 decided by 1 score). They have a good coach, heady young QB, and they can run it well. The passing game has been kind of average...but I think that will change in a big way this season. Anquan Boldin will totally change the way you defend this team. Offensively, they should be elite. Does anyone even question their defense? Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses that forces a ton of turnovers every year. I love them as the North champ, and I am tempted to take them as my AFC Super Bowl representative.
PIT - I still love Mike Tomlin, and I think he does a great job...but this team is kind of a mess right now. The Big Ben saga has been well chronicled, he'll be out for likely the opening 4 games...3 of which are against good teams. So this team will be digging out of a hole early once again. In 2009 PIT really had a hard time running the ball effectively, this must change to improve...especially with QB questions. They also lose Santonio Holmes, which can't help the offense either. They lost 7! games by one score or less in 2009, so they were obviously close. In another division I don't put them at #2, but with the Bungals and Browns behind them I didn't have a choice. Non-playoff year #2 for Tomlin and company.
CIN - I know what you're thinking..."they got TO and Ocho Cinco, they can't be stopped!" Wrong. TO is really about as valuable as LT right now. They had a very hard time scoring points last season, and I look for that to be the case again. The went 6-3 in close games, so that will come back to the pack a bit. The defense overall is good, but they struggle to stop the run. I just don't think much of this club and I am writing off last season to a batch of good luck. This is a .500 team at best in 2010.
CLE - why did they keep Mangenius? They got hot toward the end of last year, and I guess it was enough to keep this bozo around. The offense was HORRIBLE in 2009, but now they have Jake Delhomme and it will maybe actually be worse. Delhomme has proven over the last 3 years that he's not an NFL QB, so why did CLE grab him as their starter...because it's Cleveland, don't ask questions. Their defense is beyond atrocious, and based on the lack of changes in the off-season, they plan to keep it that way. Put them in the Top 5 for NFL Draft 2011 right now.
SOUTH
IND - boring pick, I know. But if you look at history you can't possibly pick anyone else in this spot. This team just continues to win 11-13 games every year and then take their chances in the Playoffs. I was skeptical of Caldwell last season, but he proved me wrong. Maybe it helped that he has one of the best ever playing QB for him? Last year was silly, they went 7-0 in close games and didn't lose until they didn't really care anymore. The D was only average last season, which scares me for a top flight Super Bowl contender. The run defense was really bad, and now Bob Sanders might be never coming back...this smells like trouble. But not enough trouble for Manning to not win another AFC South crown.
TEN - I love Jeff Fisher. He's been a really great coach with really marginal talent for quite a while now. Last year the 0-6 start pretty much ended all hope, but the 8-2 finish peaked everybody's interest for this season. VY became the QB, hands down he was more effective than Collins. Vince's win may not be pretty, but the guy wins a lot of games in one way or another...which I love. The defense was shockingly bad last season, but that will likely improve. Great running game, and a great coach put these guys at #2 for me in the South and get them in the playoffs as a dangerous WC team.
HOU - this team feels like it is so close every year but they just can't get over that hump. Schaub finally stayed healthy, and magically they almost made the playoffs. This is a team who really struggles to run the ball effectively. They played a very easy schedule last season and still couldn't sneak into the playoffs. I have to believe the running game will improve a bit, and as long as Schaub and AJ stay healthy the offense should score some points. The D is full of young talent, but in the whole scheme of things I rate them as a middle of the pack unit. Another near miss on the playoffs this season for HOU.
JAC - team trainwreck alert. These guys have all the makings of a complete disaster this season. Coach on the hot seat who should have already probably been fired, offense that can't throw with a below average QB and no WR's, no pass defense whatsoever last season (#32 in NFL), and they are coming off a lucky season in which 6 of their 7 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of their first 6 are against potential playoff teams...Del Rio doesn't survive the whole season and the dumb guy closes it out as the interim coach.
WEST
SD - in one of the worst division in all of football, this is the only bright spot. But even this club should be down a bit from last season. They went 6-1 in close games last year and did it without any kind of a running game. Rivers is great, and the passing game could be #1 again this year - but I also think the running game will pick back up now that the old man has finally left the team. The defense, however, was not too strong in 2009. They really struggled against the run, and what was an average pass defense has likely gotten worse with the Cromartie loss. There should be plenty of points scored in their games this season, but in the AFC West there can be no other pick besides SD with taking some really good drugs.
KC - I have a hard time saying this, but I kind of like this team in 2010. I think Haley might be an okay coach, and I know the coordinators will work out for him. Weis and Crennel seemed to flourish in those roles before even though they were epic failures as HC's. They lost 6 lose games last season and only scored 18 ppg. You have to believe Chuck will turn that around. Cassell could work out okay, I think they are fine with him at QB. They have some weapons offensively to work with as well. On D, they couldn't stop the run last season, which kills any team at any level. The front 7 is loaded with high picks and the secondary should also be improved...I look for this D to be pretty good with the new leadership of Crennel. Not a contender for the playoffs this year, but not the embarassment of 2009 again either.
DEN - another team that I think might have a trainwreck type of a season. They play enough bad teams to keep the record decent, but this team doesn't seem to have a clue of what it wants to do. I mean Tim Tebow? Really? They only scored 20 ppg last season, and I don't see that going up considering Kyle Orton is still their guy at QB and they traded Marshall, their biggest playmaker. The running game was all kinds of worthless last season, and it probably will be again. McDaniels is trying to run a Patriot like offense with him as Belichick and Orton as Brady...I think that's a bad idea. Defensively, they are okay and play the pass really well. This will keep them in games, but don't expect anything from this club in 2010.
OAK - I heard M&M this morning talking about how they kind of like this club in 2010. Why?!? It's the Raiders! They scored 10 or less points 7! times last season!! That's like 1/2 the games! The have Jason Campbell running the show, who I like, but the guys around him are still below average. The defense was not solid last season either, and I doubt it will be this year. I was tempted to put them over the Broncos, but I just can't until I really see some changes.
So in summary: NE, BAL, IND, SD, MIA, TEN as my playoff teams with NE in the big one but BAL as a very very close 2nd.
Thoughts?
NFC coming next week.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
5 Thoughts
1. MASOLI TO OLE MISS?
So a guy can get convicted of a felony and thrown off the Oregon team, but the good ol' boys down in Mississippi need a QB so they'll look past it. This is just ridiculous and it proves a couple of things. a) If you're good enough, you can do about anything and still get another chance for a desperate team because winning is ALL that matters. b) SEC schools will let ANYONE - if the football team needs you they will find a way to make it work.
2. KIFFIN
Now you've gone and done it Lane. Snaking a coach from under the nose of USC alumni Jeff Fisher and the Titan staff might come back to bite Lane in the ass. Apparently, there was no courtesy call to Fisher until after the coach had already agreed to leave, and Fisher was a bit upset about that. The timing of it is horrible as well with training camp starting this week. I love that Lane just continues to piss people off everywhere he goes (especially TEN), but he might have over stepped this time by getting under the skin of Fisher. Now the AD that hired Lane is gonzo, and I think his time as the HC of the Trojans might be limited. of course, all this can be irrelevant if he wins and wins big. I'm hoping he's there to ride out the sanctions and then he's canned in time for the program to step back up in 5 years.
3. KAHN!
He's back at it again...did you hear this blockbuster yesterday? We dump Sessions and Hollins, 2 guys we just loved and signed as FA's just LAST SUMMER, for 2 guys who we are going to cut to open up more $...and we had to throw in a 2nd round pick. Now I know we wanted to dump both of these guys, but can we ever get a player back that we actually want to have on this team? Opening up all this money would be great if we had a chance at landing a real FA...but we don't. I think I'm more convinced than ever that Kahn is clueless.
4. COWBOYS
The Dez Bryant saga has begun. I think it's a great idea to revolt against tradition and not carry the veteran's pads in training camp. Let's see how many people can hate you on your own team from day 1 of camp...good call. ESPN has apparently adopted Bryant and their new fling since the LeBron thing is finally over. We've pretty much had an hourly update on Dez's day since he's arrived at camp. Yesterday he sat in with the QB's on a meeting rather than taking time off, wow...who's impressed? This is the kind of sports news you get in late July I guess. Personally, I love it that the whole ESPN world thinks DAL is the team to beat. My only concerns for the 'Boys is this: 1)34-3, just 6 months ago at Metrodome and 2) you still have Wade Phillips as your coach...ha ha! If anyone thinks Wade is winning anything beyond the NFC East...well, then you obviously don't know Wade Phillips. I think I'm picking against Jerry's guys in the playoffs already...can I get some odds on that?
5. TWINS
So we didn't get Haren or Lee, but can we win with what we have? I was reading some article this morning about how our staff has been the least lucky statistically by a mile in 2010. I believe it, but that's the chance you take with pitchers like Blacky, Baker, Slowey, and Pavano. They go in with the intention of making people hit the ball, so sometimes it goes against you. But the old baseball saying is that it all evens out by the end of the year, so our luck should be changing...and based upon the last few pitching performances, I think it might be. The bats are hot, Morneausy should be coming back soon, and sweet little baby Jesus looks like he might be finding it a bit after a 5-5 night at KC. I still think this team is the one to beat in the division, and I won't change that thought anytime soon.
So a guy can get convicted of a felony and thrown off the Oregon team, but the good ol' boys down in Mississippi need a QB so they'll look past it. This is just ridiculous and it proves a couple of things. a) If you're good enough, you can do about anything and still get another chance for a desperate team because winning is ALL that matters. b) SEC schools will let ANYONE - if the football team needs you they will find a way to make it work.
2. KIFFIN
Now you've gone and done it Lane. Snaking a coach from under the nose of USC alumni Jeff Fisher and the Titan staff might come back to bite Lane in the ass. Apparently, there was no courtesy call to Fisher until after the coach had already agreed to leave, and Fisher was a bit upset about that. The timing of it is horrible as well with training camp starting this week. I love that Lane just continues to piss people off everywhere he goes (especially TEN), but he might have over stepped this time by getting under the skin of Fisher. Now the AD that hired Lane is gonzo, and I think his time as the HC of the Trojans might be limited. of course, all this can be irrelevant if he wins and wins big. I'm hoping he's there to ride out the sanctions and then he's canned in time for the program to step back up in 5 years.
3. KAHN!
He's back at it again...did you hear this blockbuster yesterday? We dump Sessions and Hollins, 2 guys we just loved and signed as FA's just LAST SUMMER, for 2 guys who we are going to cut to open up more $...and we had to throw in a 2nd round pick. Now I know we wanted to dump both of these guys, but can we ever get a player back that we actually want to have on this team? Opening up all this money would be great if we had a chance at landing a real FA...but we don't. I think I'm more convinced than ever that Kahn is clueless.
4. COWBOYS
The Dez Bryant saga has begun. I think it's a great idea to revolt against tradition and not carry the veteran's pads in training camp. Let's see how many people can hate you on your own team from day 1 of camp...good call. ESPN has apparently adopted Bryant and their new fling since the LeBron thing is finally over. We've pretty much had an hourly update on Dez's day since he's arrived at camp. Yesterday he sat in with the QB's on a meeting rather than taking time off, wow...who's impressed? This is the kind of sports news you get in late July I guess. Personally, I love it that the whole ESPN world thinks DAL is the team to beat. My only concerns for the 'Boys is this: 1)34-3, just 6 months ago at Metrodome and 2) you still have Wade Phillips as your coach...ha ha! If anyone thinks Wade is winning anything beyond the NFC East...well, then you obviously don't know Wade Phillips. I think I'm picking against Jerry's guys in the playoffs already...can I get some odds on that?
5. TWINS
So we didn't get Haren or Lee, but can we win with what we have? I was reading some article this morning about how our staff has been the least lucky statistically by a mile in 2010. I believe it, but that's the chance you take with pitchers like Blacky, Baker, Slowey, and Pavano. They go in with the intention of making people hit the ball, so sometimes it goes against you. But the old baseball saying is that it all evens out by the end of the year, so our luck should be changing...and based upon the last few pitching performances, I think it might be. The bats are hot, Morneausy should be coming back soon, and sweet little baby Jesus looks like he might be finding it a bit after a 5-5 night at KC. I still think this team is the one to beat in the division, and I won't change that thought anytime soon.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Gophers getting points
Two early lines posted at the Hilton...
Gophers +16 vs. Ohio St
MN +9 vs. IOWA
Can I bet these now?!?!?
Sent from my iPhone
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
The other "U"
I totally forgot to mention this before...I finally saw the 30 for 30 on the "U".
I love all of these ESPN docs, but this one was really outstanding. With Miami and FSU being down for so long I had forgotten why I used to hate them. Thanks for reminding me ESPN!
That crew had an incredible collection of talent, but has there ever been a bigger bunch of low quality people assembled on one team? They changed college football, I'll give them that. I had forgotten how brutal it was watching the constant celebrations after every play that NCAA Football used to be. The stuff that draws a flag in 2010 looks totally innocent vs. what these thugs used to do after every single positive play.
BTW - those of you who have seen it, is something wrong with Bernie Kosar or did he not sound completely hammered throughout his interview clips? I'm sorry if he has some kind of ailment that I don't know about, but he was all sweaty and glossy eyed and you could barely understand his words between slurs.
How about the refusal of the 2 Live Crew guy to talk about any of his involvement still to this day? Talk about violations - USC might look minor compared to what this ya-hoo did for multiple players at Miami.
I was starting to soften on my hatred for this club with their current performances, but I'm back on board.
I love all of these ESPN docs, but this one was really outstanding. With Miami and FSU being down for so long I had forgotten why I used to hate them. Thanks for reminding me ESPN!
That crew had an incredible collection of talent, but has there ever been a bigger bunch of low quality people assembled on one team? They changed college football, I'll give them that. I had forgotten how brutal it was watching the constant celebrations after every play that NCAA Football used to be. The stuff that draws a flag in 2010 looks totally innocent vs. what these thugs used to do after every single positive play.
BTW - those of you who have seen it, is something wrong with Bernie Kosar or did he not sound completely hammered throughout his interview clips? I'm sorry if he has some kind of ailment that I don't know about, but he was all sweaty and glossy eyed and you could barely understand his words between slurs.
How about the refusal of the 2 Live Crew guy to talk about any of his involvement still to this day? Talk about violations - USC might look minor compared to what this ya-hoo did for multiple players at Miami.
I was starting to soften on my hatred for this club with their current performances, but I'm back on board.
Wednesday News and Notes
Lots of stuff happening that we could/should care about...
1) Bobby Johnson Resigns as VANDY HC
Apparently, he tired of "fighting the fight"...not exactly sure what this means, but I'll take a stab at it. VANDY is one of the few in the SEC that actually have academics and teachers and everything, so Bobby has been fighting to be competitive with all of these schools that recruit freakish beast athletes with no interest in academia at all. That's a tough battle, and I'm honestly surprised he could do this job for so long. In retrospect, their bowl season of 2 years ago might be one of the greatest accomplishments in College Football's recent history. They barely have the talent to compete in the MAC much less the best Football conference around.
As for the future, the usual suspects are being thrown out there as replacements...the most intriguing to me is Mike Leach. I'll give it a 1% chance, but damn it would be fun to see him annoying the big boys of the SEC like he did for TEX and OK for so many years. This season, I would expect an interim and I expect VANDY to be completely 100% terrible. They can only win with ball control and great D, both of which might not happen any more without their leader.
Greg - you are the VANDY expert after watching them practice a few years back...what can your 2nd favorite team do to get on the right track?
2) We Got Him
Luke Ridnour, 4 years $16M. Kahn strikes again! He's a veteran PG, most recently with MIL in their magical 1 series playoff run of 2009-2010. Career 9 pts and 5 asst guy, but he's always been on bad or very average teams. Not really sure if this is an upgrade from Sessions, but clearly he's gone now. Sounds like maybe Charlotte is the destination...let me guess, we'll get picks and $$$. I guess Luke will be competing with Flynn to see who will be Rubio's back up in 2011-2012.
3) Gophers Raiding ILLINOIS!
Over the weekend Brew's Crew made a nice signing in Matt LaCosse, who was a HS QB, but is expected to be a lethal TE in college. 6-6 220, had some interest from big-time teams...have to love this addition. A big time receiving TE is a major need on this club with the current brand of offense, so LaCosse could step in very early and be the man early in his career. The Gophers weren't done there, yesterday we locked up twin brothers from Illinois Luke and Kyle McAvoy. Kyle is pure beast material right now, and Luke is about 20 lbs lighter. 6'5" and around 290 is a perfect body type for what we want to do on the OL. Both had interest and/or offers from ARIZONA, KAN, IOWA, WIS, SPARTY...Brew was willing to take both on scholarship, which was a big factor. Team these 2 with Ed and Tommy Olson up front and we might have the makings of a nice little OL in a couple of years!
4) Twins
I'm still not bailing out on this team like many have, it's a 2nd half club...they'll be fine. I am selling on Blacky. His last chance comes this week against the Chi-Sox. My bet, he shows flashes of being better and Gardy sticks with him through July at least before finally admitting he's horrible and sending him down. You can only have so many soft tossing RHP's on one team before it catches up to you. Baker, Slowey, Blacky, Pavano are all honestly the same pitcher. We need a right handed power arm or another LHP to mix into this thing before we are done. Duensing is alright, but he's a nice bullpen arm because he really struggles against right handed hitters. Bottom line, make a move and add a starter. Give something up - make a run. Do we really have to plead for this every single season?!?!
5) Poll
Which day of the all-star game is the most boring?
1-HR Derby (Monday)
2-All-Star Game (Tuesday)
3-Nothing (Today)
Even though the game was extremely slow and boring last night (and I only watched about 4 innings), I am voting for HR Derby day as the worst of the 3 day all-star break. Honestly, I would rather have a day like today with no sports on at all than having to listen to Chris Berman and watch the pathetic fringe stars in the HR Derby. This event is truly for kids 12 and under, which is fine, but I couldn't watch much more than a few minutes of it. It's also painfully long! I kept thinking I tune back in to check on who made the finals but the first round took over 2 hours!! This should be a 60-90 minute event, let them all hit once and whoever hits the most wins. The drama is totally gone after that point, so why waste your time.
Finally, to totally shift gears once again, I'm starting to get a real positive feeling about this Gophers club in 2010. I'm not 100% sure why I am feeling this way at this point, but I am. I really think it's another bowl team in 2010 and I'm expecting some major offensive improvement. I can't quite put my finger on it yet, but this team is going to surprise a lot of people this season.
1) Bobby Johnson Resigns as VANDY HC
Apparently, he tired of "fighting the fight"...not exactly sure what this means, but I'll take a stab at it. VANDY is one of the few in the SEC that actually have academics and teachers and everything, so Bobby has been fighting to be competitive with all of these schools that recruit freakish beast athletes with no interest in academia at all. That's a tough battle, and I'm honestly surprised he could do this job for so long. In retrospect, their bowl season of 2 years ago might be one of the greatest accomplishments in College Football's recent history. They barely have the talent to compete in the MAC much less the best Football conference around.
As for the future, the usual suspects are being thrown out there as replacements...the most intriguing to me is Mike Leach. I'll give it a 1% chance, but damn it would be fun to see him annoying the big boys of the SEC like he did for TEX and OK for so many years. This season, I would expect an interim and I expect VANDY to be completely 100% terrible. They can only win with ball control and great D, both of which might not happen any more without their leader.
Greg - you are the VANDY expert after watching them practice a few years back...what can your 2nd favorite team do to get on the right track?
2) We Got Him
Luke Ridnour, 4 years $16M. Kahn strikes again! He's a veteran PG, most recently with MIL in their magical 1 series playoff run of 2009-2010. Career 9 pts and 5 asst guy, but he's always been on bad or very average teams. Not really sure if this is an upgrade from Sessions, but clearly he's gone now. Sounds like maybe Charlotte is the destination...let me guess, we'll get picks and $$$. I guess Luke will be competing with Flynn to see who will be Rubio's back up in 2011-2012.
3) Gophers Raiding ILLINOIS!
Over the weekend Brew's Crew made a nice signing in Matt LaCosse, who was a HS QB, but is expected to be a lethal TE in college. 6-6 220, had some interest from big-time teams...have to love this addition. A big time receiving TE is a major need on this club with the current brand of offense, so LaCosse could step in very early and be the man early in his career. The Gophers weren't done there, yesterday we locked up twin brothers from Illinois Luke and Kyle McAvoy. Kyle is pure beast material right now, and Luke is about 20 lbs lighter. 6'5" and around 290 is a perfect body type for what we want to do on the OL. Both had interest and/or offers from ARIZONA, KAN, IOWA, WIS, SPARTY...Brew was willing to take both on scholarship, which was a big factor. Team these 2 with Ed and Tommy Olson up front and we might have the makings of a nice little OL in a couple of years!
4) Twins
I'm still not bailing out on this team like many have, it's a 2nd half club...they'll be fine. I am selling on Blacky. His last chance comes this week against the Chi-Sox. My bet, he shows flashes of being better and Gardy sticks with him through July at least before finally admitting he's horrible and sending him down. You can only have so many soft tossing RHP's on one team before it catches up to you. Baker, Slowey, Blacky, Pavano are all honestly the same pitcher. We need a right handed power arm or another LHP to mix into this thing before we are done. Duensing is alright, but he's a nice bullpen arm because he really struggles against right handed hitters. Bottom line, make a move and add a starter. Give something up - make a run. Do we really have to plead for this every single season?!?!
5) Poll
Which day of the all-star game is the most boring?
1-HR Derby (Monday)
2-All-Star Game (Tuesday)
3-Nothing (Today)
Even though the game was extremely slow and boring last night (and I only watched about 4 innings), I am voting for HR Derby day as the worst of the 3 day all-star break. Honestly, I would rather have a day like today with no sports on at all than having to listen to Chris Berman and watch the pathetic fringe stars in the HR Derby. This event is truly for kids 12 and under, which is fine, but I couldn't watch much more than a few minutes of it. It's also painfully long! I kept thinking I tune back in to check on who made the finals but the first round took over 2 hours!! This should be a 60-90 minute event, let them all hit once and whoever hits the most wins. The drama is totally gone after that point, so why waste your time.
Finally, to totally shift gears once again, I'm starting to get a real positive feeling about this Gophers club in 2010. I'm not 100% sure why I am feeling this way at this point, but I am. I really think it's another bowl team in 2010 and I'm expecting some major offensive improvement. I can't quite put my finger on it yet, but this team is going to surprise a lot of people this season.
Monday, July 12, 2010
College Gameday Changes
Not much happening today, except for this big news...
COLLEGE GAMEDAY MOVING TO A 3 HOUR PROGRUM!!
Starting at 8am instead of 9am, and running through 11am...the typical Gopher kickoff time.
Now clearly they have done this for those of us with young children who are awake at 6 or 7 on Saturday mornings and searching for a real show after 1 hour of cartoons. They have also confirmed that Erin Andrews will be a weekly member of the progrum and the 1st hour will be on ESPNU...once again, all great things.
What does this mean for us? Well, it means GAMEDAY starts at 6am in VEGAS so we need to be in our seats by 5:30am!!
COLLEGE GAMEDAY MOVING TO A 3 HOUR PROGRUM!!
Starting at 8am instead of 9am, and running through 11am...the typical Gopher kickoff time.
Now clearly they have done this for those of us with young children who are awake at 6 or 7 on Saturday mornings and searching for a real show after 1 hour of cartoons. They have also confirmed that Erin Andrews will be a weekly member of the progrum and the 1st hour will be on ESPNU...once again, all great things.
What does this mean for us? Well, it means GAMEDAY starts at 6am in VEGAS so we need to be in our seats by 5:30am!!
Thursday, July 8, 2010
NCAA Football Betting v2.0
So 2 canceled meetings and all of a sudden I have an open afternoon...what better to do than help the world out by identifying some things to think about when betting NCAA Football.
To review, last season I was on a kick for power ratings. It made sense to me that hitting these power ratings correctly at the beginning of the year should help me nail down the best value picks. Well, I was 1/2 right. First major flaw, nailing down the correct power ratings is very difficult. Second flaw, this is how all the lines are set, so I was coming up with way too many pushes. In order to win consistently at this hobby, you have to identify things that aren't obvious and that everyone can't see coming. The oddsmakers in Vegas use power ratings to set their lines weekly using a formula which is very similar to what I was doing last season. If I could figure this out, you knew it had to be way too easy and obvious...and it was.
So what is changing for this season? Well, I have read a couple of books on the topic over the off-season (only 2 books I've read in the last year, and I read them each 3 times!). One was by a math geek guy who was convinced that a stats based approach was the way to go for NCAA Football. I have to agree with some of his points and will utilize some of this throughout the season in my analysis. The other book was an NFL book with some NCAA notes about a guy who looks at stats a bit but uses a lot of other factors when determining good value bets. A lot of this info is really good, and I will also use a bunch of his stuff when looking at games this season. I think everyone has to have their own system which is a hybrid of all the info you've learned throughout the years plus some of your own intuition and opinions. It's a science:luck mix, but by knowing as much as possible about what to look for, I think you can shrink the luck factor and improve your bankroll...and hopefully take down that magical 70-75% winners every week.
First, the stats side of the equation. College football relies heavily on running the football. The NFL does somewhat, but nowhere close to the NCAA. Running games and defense can dictate the outcome of most games in College Football. This pre-season, I am trying to get a feel for how all teams rate in the areas of rushing offense/passing offense and rushing defense/passing defense. This simplifies things and allows you to see the glaring strengths and weaknesses when going into a matchup.
Obviously, we are not able to watch every game, so how can we figure out how good some of these teams are that we can't watch every week? This is where stats have to come into play...and not just, "they won 31-14, must have played well." Looking at yards gained and allowed, 1st down differential, TO differential, and punt differential help give you an idea of how a team is playing this season. All of these stats aren't the end all be all for picking winners, but I believe you have to have some background on any team involved in your bet in order to feel good about your pick. And with all other things being equal, this should produce winners. Sometimes it's as easy as picking a great rushing team vs. a bad rushing defense...but not every time.
Strength of schedule is another factor that has to be included in any kind of statistical analysis. I used to figure these out on my own, which took way too much time. Now, I have conceded to relying on the Sagarin ratings in USA TODAY for the rankings of every team. This gives an accurate and quick look at what kind of slate each team has played and how the next opponent compares.
So to review, here's the first steps in preparing for a bet:
1. Review rushing and passing offense/defense matchups to look for an angle
2. Compare these findings to the strength of schedule to see if you're missing something glaring that needs to be adjusted.
That's the most difficult part. But there are millions of great stat sites out there so if you put in the time you'll find what you need.
Next, the finesse part of the equation. Shockingly, the team with the best stats doesn't always come out on top in the gambling world. Here's a list of other things to consider, kind of a checklist of things to see how they apply to the matchup you're looking at:
1. This is one that I can't believe I had never realized before, but NCAA Football teams tend to be extremely emotional and typically play their best games after their worst defeats and their below average games after their biggest wins. I read this and didn't really believe it, but after looking through the 2009 schedule, it is a fact. There are a lot of games where the results are unexplainable, until you look at the sequence of games and what happened the week before for each team and then you take this rule into account. It's creepy accurate, and I think this is something that a lot of uninformed gamblers don't understand.
EXAMPLES (there are a billion of them, but I'll just focus on the Vegas week 2009)
- CAL -4 at UCLA...CAL just came off a bye and a crushing 30-3 L vs. USC while UCLA was coming off a standard loss to ORE which stayed fairly close to the projected spread...result = CAL CRUSHES 45-26
- CLEM -6 vs. WF...CLEM coming off a bye and a bad L at MARY (16 pts from spread), while WF pushed a 10 pt win over that same MARY team the week before.
result = CLEMSON CRUSHES 38-3
- KST +4.5 vs. A&M...KST just got housed by TT 66-14, A&M played OKST close at 31-36
result = KST 62-14 IN A LAUGHER
- PUR +13 vs. OHIOST...PUR played horrible and got rolled by the Gophers 35-20 (11 off to the spread), OHIOST won big over WIS 31-13
result = PUR 26-18 SHOCKER!
- IND +3 vs. ILL...IND lost 47-7 vs. VIR the previous week, ILL played up to par and lost 24-14 vs. MSU
result = IND 27-14 WINNER
Basically, when you have a good team or even just an average team with good coaching, look for opportunities where they are coming off a HUGE win or a HUGE loss either in gross numbers or ATS numbers...that's when irrational things happen.
And while we're talking ATS numbers, this book pointed out something quite obvious that I never really thought about before. Don't waste your time picking teams that you think can cover by 1-7 points...too risky. Take the games that you are passionate about where you think it's a 10-20 point cover no problem. Nearly 1/2 the games on the schedule end this way ATS, so there are opportunities out there, you just need to focus on finding those.
2. Keeping your finger on the emotional state of a team is huge. Think about it, it's College Football, 1/2 the battle is the emotion. Bet against teams that have their confidence shot such as MIZZOU after the NEB rain game on a Thursday night last year. But this can also work in reverse, NEB got stung after this game as well because TT caught them when they were emotionally drained off a huge Thursday win. Pinpoint these marquee games and watch what teams do around these few games. Letdowns are a very real part of the logic, you can't be 100% up for 12 games a year so let downs do happen.
Another part of this is making sure you know what is at stake in a game. If a team is 2-5 with one almost guaranteed loss already left on the slate, they are going to do everything they can to keep bowl eligibility alive. Once that is lost, a lot of times teams will go into the tank. Or take a team like AUB in 2009. They started hot at 5-0, but once they got that 1st L and realized they were maybe not as good as advertised, they lost 4 of the next 6.
3. Coaching network - this is more of a big deal in the NFL, but I figured I'd mention it here as well. Basically, having a coach who was with one of your opponents recently is an advantage to you. Rex Ryan vs. BAL in the playoffs last year is a prime example. Coach Mullen at MISST against FLA last year is another. It doesn't need to be a HC, but anyone with relevant experience who would have some insight into what their new team could expect when going up against their old team or a team that they knew very well in a past job. Like I said, this is a little tougher to find in the NCAA World, but in the NFL you will see it a lot.
4. Turnovers - the ultimate equalizer. This can kill any great bet because it is kind of unpredictable. You can see team trends and even season trends on this to help factor it into your preparation, but don't get discouraged when you make a great pick and then lose on a -5 turnover day from your club. Bottom line - good turnover margin teams are good ATS record teams. Winning the turnover battle will likely win you lots of $$$.
5. First road games
The first road game is typically very difficult for most teams, excluding week 1 road trips. Week 1 doesn't really count because the team doesn't know any different and they have been preparing for that game for weeks. But that first real road trip, historically speaking, is not a really pretty performance. Especially if it's cross-country or if you have a young team.
6. Injuries
It's hard to keep track of these as much in college, but it has to be factored in if possible. Injuries to OL/DL are the main ones to watch for because they seem to have the largest impact.
7. Don't overreact!
Case in point, TEN vs. FLA last season. Ultimate revenge game, right? FLA might score 100! When this is the case, always bet against it. TEN doesn't want to be embarassed, and they played that way. Usually, hyping a huge blowout ends up going the other way. In the same sense, if a team loses by 30 in their first game but you really liked them coming into the year - don't bail out! I did on NEV last year, and they ended up winning 8 of their last 9 and covering 70% of them. When a team loses big early, it could negatively effect their lines going forward so there might be value there the next week.
8. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE
Picking a great defense and getting points might be my new mantra this season. When you have the #1 ranked rushing offense coming to play the #1 ranked rushing defense ALWAYS SIDE WITH THE DEFENSE. "Defense wins championships" is a cliche' for a reason. Defense also wins bets.
9. RIVALRY GAMES
This one was on here last year as well, but my opinion is throw nearly everything out the window in these games and take points if you can get them. I'm not sure if it's a psychological thing or what, but the DOG going into these games almost always seems to play extremely well and cover the line. There are exceptions, but it's a general rule of thumb.
10. Know the teams
Many of these rules won't apply to the really really good and really really bad teams. Some teams are just great and it's harder to predict. Plus the lines in most of these games are so ridiculous for most of them that they are not worth betting seriously anyway.
So all of these things could/should be considered when placing bets on NCAA Football. It's not as exact and straight forward as I threw out there last year...but it's more accurate. There are definitely factors that can tip us off one way or another, but my best advice is to ask yourself..."who wants it more", "what's on the line for each team", "what is the state of mind of each coach/team".
Even that simple step should allow you to find a lot of opportunities that aren't there if you look at stats alone.
Sorry - freaky long post, but I got some time on my hands this afternoon. About 55 days and 3 hours until kick-off for the Maroon and Gold...I'm so ready.
I'll throw out something similar for NFL games in the coming weeks once that league comes onto the radar.
Still loving this one...UNTHOUGHT KNOWN
All the thoughts you never see
You are always thinking
Brain is wide, the brain is deep
Oh, are you sinking?
Feel the path of every day
Which road you taking?
Breathing hard, making hay
Yeah, this is living
Look for love in evidence
That you're worth keeping
Swallowed whole in negatives
It's so sad and sickening
Feel the air up above
Oh, pool of blue sky
Fill the air up with love
All black with starlight
Feel the sky blanket you
With gems and rhinestones!!!
See the path cut by the moon
For you to walk on
For you to walk on...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing here...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing left...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing here...
See the path cut by the moon
For you to walk on
See the waves on distant shores
Awaiting your arrival
Dream the dreams of other men
You'll be no one's rival
Dream the dreams of others then
You will be no one's rival
You will be no one's rival...
A distant time, a distant space
That's where we're living
A distant time, a distant place
So what ya giving?
What ya giving?
To review, last season I was on a kick for power ratings. It made sense to me that hitting these power ratings correctly at the beginning of the year should help me nail down the best value picks. Well, I was 1/2 right. First major flaw, nailing down the correct power ratings is very difficult. Second flaw, this is how all the lines are set, so I was coming up with way too many pushes. In order to win consistently at this hobby, you have to identify things that aren't obvious and that everyone can't see coming. The oddsmakers in Vegas use power ratings to set their lines weekly using a formula which is very similar to what I was doing last season. If I could figure this out, you knew it had to be way too easy and obvious...and it was.
So what is changing for this season? Well, I have read a couple of books on the topic over the off-season (only 2 books I've read in the last year, and I read them each 3 times!). One was by a math geek guy who was convinced that a stats based approach was the way to go for NCAA Football. I have to agree with some of his points and will utilize some of this throughout the season in my analysis. The other book was an NFL book with some NCAA notes about a guy who looks at stats a bit but uses a lot of other factors when determining good value bets. A lot of this info is really good, and I will also use a bunch of his stuff when looking at games this season. I think everyone has to have their own system which is a hybrid of all the info you've learned throughout the years plus some of your own intuition and opinions. It's a science:luck mix, but by knowing as much as possible about what to look for, I think you can shrink the luck factor and improve your bankroll...and hopefully take down that magical 70-75% winners every week.
First, the stats side of the equation. College football relies heavily on running the football. The NFL does somewhat, but nowhere close to the NCAA. Running games and defense can dictate the outcome of most games in College Football. This pre-season, I am trying to get a feel for how all teams rate in the areas of rushing offense/passing offense and rushing defense/passing defense. This simplifies things and allows you to see the glaring strengths and weaknesses when going into a matchup.
Obviously, we are not able to watch every game, so how can we figure out how good some of these teams are that we can't watch every week? This is where stats have to come into play...and not just, "they won 31-14, must have played well." Looking at yards gained and allowed, 1st down differential, TO differential, and punt differential help give you an idea of how a team is playing this season. All of these stats aren't the end all be all for picking winners, but I believe you have to have some background on any team involved in your bet in order to feel good about your pick. And with all other things being equal, this should produce winners. Sometimes it's as easy as picking a great rushing team vs. a bad rushing defense...but not every time.
Strength of schedule is another factor that has to be included in any kind of statistical analysis. I used to figure these out on my own, which took way too much time. Now, I have conceded to relying on the Sagarin ratings in USA TODAY for the rankings of every team. This gives an accurate and quick look at what kind of slate each team has played and how the next opponent compares.
So to review, here's the first steps in preparing for a bet:
1. Review rushing and passing offense/defense matchups to look for an angle
2. Compare these findings to the strength of schedule to see if you're missing something glaring that needs to be adjusted.
That's the most difficult part. But there are millions of great stat sites out there so if you put in the time you'll find what you need.
Next, the finesse part of the equation. Shockingly, the team with the best stats doesn't always come out on top in the gambling world. Here's a list of other things to consider, kind of a checklist of things to see how they apply to the matchup you're looking at:
1. This is one that I can't believe I had never realized before, but NCAA Football teams tend to be extremely emotional and typically play their best games after their worst defeats and their below average games after their biggest wins. I read this and didn't really believe it, but after looking through the 2009 schedule, it is a fact. There are a lot of games where the results are unexplainable, until you look at the sequence of games and what happened the week before for each team and then you take this rule into account. It's creepy accurate, and I think this is something that a lot of uninformed gamblers don't understand.
EXAMPLES (there are a billion of them, but I'll just focus on the Vegas week 2009)
- CAL -4 at UCLA...CAL just came off a bye and a crushing 30-3 L vs. USC while UCLA was coming off a standard loss to ORE which stayed fairly close to the projected spread...result = CAL CRUSHES 45-26
- CLEM -6 vs. WF...CLEM coming off a bye and a bad L at MARY (16 pts from spread), while WF pushed a 10 pt win over that same MARY team the week before.
result = CLEMSON CRUSHES 38-3
- KST +4.5 vs. A&M...KST just got housed by TT 66-14, A&M played OKST close at 31-36
result = KST 62-14 IN A LAUGHER
- PUR +13 vs. OHIOST...PUR played horrible and got rolled by the Gophers 35-20 (11 off to the spread), OHIOST won big over WIS 31-13
result = PUR 26-18 SHOCKER!
- IND +3 vs. ILL...IND lost 47-7 vs. VIR the previous week, ILL played up to par and lost 24-14 vs. MSU
result = IND 27-14 WINNER
Basically, when you have a good team or even just an average team with good coaching, look for opportunities where they are coming off a HUGE win or a HUGE loss either in gross numbers or ATS numbers...that's when irrational things happen.
And while we're talking ATS numbers, this book pointed out something quite obvious that I never really thought about before. Don't waste your time picking teams that you think can cover by 1-7 points...too risky. Take the games that you are passionate about where you think it's a 10-20 point cover no problem. Nearly 1/2 the games on the schedule end this way ATS, so there are opportunities out there, you just need to focus on finding those.
2. Keeping your finger on the emotional state of a team is huge. Think about it, it's College Football, 1/2 the battle is the emotion. Bet against teams that have their confidence shot such as MIZZOU after the NEB rain game on a Thursday night last year. But this can also work in reverse, NEB got stung after this game as well because TT caught them when they were emotionally drained off a huge Thursday win. Pinpoint these marquee games and watch what teams do around these few games. Letdowns are a very real part of the logic, you can't be 100% up for 12 games a year so let downs do happen.
Another part of this is making sure you know what is at stake in a game. If a team is 2-5 with one almost guaranteed loss already left on the slate, they are going to do everything they can to keep bowl eligibility alive. Once that is lost, a lot of times teams will go into the tank. Or take a team like AUB in 2009. They started hot at 5-0, but once they got that 1st L and realized they were maybe not as good as advertised, they lost 4 of the next 6.
3. Coaching network - this is more of a big deal in the NFL, but I figured I'd mention it here as well. Basically, having a coach who was with one of your opponents recently is an advantage to you. Rex Ryan vs. BAL in the playoffs last year is a prime example. Coach Mullen at MISST against FLA last year is another. It doesn't need to be a HC, but anyone with relevant experience who would have some insight into what their new team could expect when going up against their old team or a team that they knew very well in a past job. Like I said, this is a little tougher to find in the NCAA World, but in the NFL you will see it a lot.
4. Turnovers - the ultimate equalizer. This can kill any great bet because it is kind of unpredictable. You can see team trends and even season trends on this to help factor it into your preparation, but don't get discouraged when you make a great pick and then lose on a -5 turnover day from your club. Bottom line - good turnover margin teams are good ATS record teams. Winning the turnover battle will likely win you lots of $$$.
5. First road games
The first road game is typically very difficult for most teams, excluding week 1 road trips. Week 1 doesn't really count because the team doesn't know any different and they have been preparing for that game for weeks. But that first real road trip, historically speaking, is not a really pretty performance. Especially if it's cross-country or if you have a young team.
6. Injuries
It's hard to keep track of these as much in college, but it has to be factored in if possible. Injuries to OL/DL are the main ones to watch for because they seem to have the largest impact.
7. Don't overreact!
Case in point, TEN vs. FLA last season. Ultimate revenge game, right? FLA might score 100! When this is the case, always bet against it. TEN doesn't want to be embarassed, and they played that way. Usually, hyping a huge blowout ends up going the other way. In the same sense, if a team loses by 30 in their first game but you really liked them coming into the year - don't bail out! I did on NEV last year, and they ended up winning 8 of their last 9 and covering 70% of them. When a team loses big early, it could negatively effect their lines going forward so there might be value there the next week.
8. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE
Picking a great defense and getting points might be my new mantra this season. When you have the #1 ranked rushing offense coming to play the #1 ranked rushing defense ALWAYS SIDE WITH THE DEFENSE. "Defense wins championships" is a cliche' for a reason. Defense also wins bets.
9. RIVALRY GAMES
This one was on here last year as well, but my opinion is throw nearly everything out the window in these games and take points if you can get them. I'm not sure if it's a psychological thing or what, but the DOG going into these games almost always seems to play extremely well and cover the line. There are exceptions, but it's a general rule of thumb.
10. Know the teams
Many of these rules won't apply to the really really good and really really bad teams. Some teams are just great and it's harder to predict. Plus the lines in most of these games are so ridiculous for most of them that they are not worth betting seriously anyway.
So all of these things could/should be considered when placing bets on NCAA Football. It's not as exact and straight forward as I threw out there last year...but it's more accurate. There are definitely factors that can tip us off one way or another, but my best advice is to ask yourself..."who wants it more", "what's on the line for each team", "what is the state of mind of each coach/team".
Even that simple step should allow you to find a lot of opportunities that aren't there if you look at stats alone.
Sorry - freaky long post, but I got some time on my hands this afternoon. About 55 days and 3 hours until kick-off for the Maroon and Gold...I'm so ready.
I'll throw out something similar for NFL games in the coming weeks once that league comes onto the radar.
Still loving this one...UNTHOUGHT KNOWN
All the thoughts you never see
You are always thinking
Brain is wide, the brain is deep
Oh, are you sinking?
Feel the path of every day
Which road you taking?
Breathing hard, making hay
Yeah, this is living
Look for love in evidence
That you're worth keeping
Swallowed whole in negatives
It's so sad and sickening
Feel the air up above
Oh, pool of blue sky
Fill the air up with love
All black with starlight
Feel the sky blanket you
With gems and rhinestones!!!
See the path cut by the moon
For you to walk on
For you to walk on...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing here...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing left...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing here...
See the path cut by the moon
For you to walk on
See the waves on distant shores
Awaiting your arrival
Dream the dreams of other men
You'll be no one's rival
Dream the dreams of others then
You will be no one's rival
You will be no one's rival...
A distant time, a distant space
That's where we're living
A distant time, a distant place
So what ya giving?
What ya giving?
The JOKE that is the NBA Salary Cap
So I became enlightened last night on how the NBA Salary Cap works, and let me tell you...it's ridiculous.
So the popular opinion is the LBJ will be in MIAMI after tonight to give them 3 max players and virtually zero free dollars under the cap. So the logical question, how do they find 8-10 other guys to play on this team?
Well, I learned last night that they can spend as much money as necessary to fill out a roster and can pay everyone else the minimum even if it takes them way over the cap.
Stupid.
Why would you even have a cap if it is this easy to get around it? The best plan is to dump your entire roster and start over because once you get your stars and over pay them, then you can go over the cap to fill out the rest of your team with minimum guys that will be jumping for joy to accept that deal and get a chance at a ring.
Well, I for one am hoping this blows up in their face and MIAMI doesn't even sniff the title for the next 6 years. Maybe a major injury to one of these 3, or maybe the lack of any C or PG on the roster will come back to haunt them. Seriously, how can anyone outside of MIAMI cheer for this team to win anything?
Sounds like the CAVS might be trying to replace LBJ with...wait for it...the great Johnny Flynn! Yep, apparently the Woofies have given up on this guy already and are shopping him for some expiring money. KAHN!!! Once again, I swear that this guy has no idea what the hell he's doing. Although, if we were able to turn this into some expiring money and a #1 pick it might make sense...because when LBJ says he's not staying in CLE, that #1 pick will look very nice. The CAVS without LBJ = worse than the Woofies next year...yes, it will get that bad that fast.
So the popular opinion is the LBJ will be in MIAMI after tonight to give them 3 max players and virtually zero free dollars under the cap. So the logical question, how do they find 8-10 other guys to play on this team?
Well, I learned last night that they can spend as much money as necessary to fill out a roster and can pay everyone else the minimum even if it takes them way over the cap.
Stupid.
Why would you even have a cap if it is this easy to get around it? The best plan is to dump your entire roster and start over because once you get your stars and over pay them, then you can go over the cap to fill out the rest of your team with minimum guys that will be jumping for joy to accept that deal and get a chance at a ring.
Well, I for one am hoping this blows up in their face and MIAMI doesn't even sniff the title for the next 6 years. Maybe a major injury to one of these 3, or maybe the lack of any C or PG on the roster will come back to haunt them. Seriously, how can anyone outside of MIAMI cheer for this team to win anything?
Sounds like the CAVS might be trying to replace LBJ with...wait for it...the great Johnny Flynn! Yep, apparently the Woofies have given up on this guy already and are shopping him for some expiring money. KAHN!!! Once again, I swear that this guy has no idea what the hell he's doing. Although, if we were able to turn this into some expiring money and a #1 pick it might make sense...because when LBJ says he's not staying in CLE, that #1 pick will look very nice. The CAVS without LBJ = worse than the Woofies next year...yes, it will get that bad that fast.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Random Stuff
Hope everyone has their DVR set for tomorrow night...the magical LeBron announcement...haven't you heard about this yet? If you've listened to any radio or watched any ESPN over the last 24 hours you know what I'm talking about. The guy is calling a press conference to announce his decision on where he'll play...and with that he instantly moves up the ladder of biggest d-bags ever. I really hope he decides to go to NY, because it's easy for me to hate the Knicks.
If he goes to Miami, how can they have anyone else on their roster? So they'll have 3 guys locked up for like $16-$20M per year plus they have only 3 other guys under contract right now. I'm not a salary cap guru, but how will you have any money left to sign enough players to fill out a roster? Does a team of LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Townsend Orr and Bob Martin win an NBA title? I'd still put my cash on the Lakers. BTW, since when did Bosh become such a superstar? I mean he's a nice player, but the experts talk about him like he's on par with LBJ and Wade...not even close. He couldn't carry his pathetic Raptor team to anything significant.
Anyway, totally under the radar are the Woofies and KAHN! So far, I really don't know what the hell they are doing, and I question whether they even know at times. We're going hard for David Lee...another PF...and we'll have to overpay to get him. That doesn't sound like a good move. They really wanted Rudy Gay...who would directly take minutes from our #1 pick Johnson. Now I hear they are hot after Luke Ridnour, a PG...who would directly take minutes from either Flynn or Sessions or Rubio as early as next year. How can you be looking at another PG?!?! So we think we've solved our big man spot with Darko and Pekovic...I guess I'm okay with that. But with the imminent trade of Al, I really don't know what this team has up their sleeve. Obviously, we could be looking at some massive turnover on the roster with some of these proposed deals, and Al's value will be quite high once the high end FA PF's are all gone. This could be a huge deal for the Wolves if they play it the right way. I don't know why I continue to think this club has a chance...I should tune out for 5 years and see if anything has changed by 2015.
Elsewhere, MLB...go Twins! I hope you utilized your DVR again last night to catch a rare sight - a Joe Mauer HR!! Joe is basically putting up Brian Harper like numbers this season since signing his $900B deal. He's right around .300 with 4 HR's...wow, real impressive. He's going to have to hit about .400 over the 2nd half with an amazing playoff run to justify his worth in year 1 of this deal. On the other hand, our pitching scares the hell out of me. I don't know if I trust any of our 5 starters to be consistent game in and game out. That's why a Lee trade would be so huge...he's a sure thing as a #1, he's left handed, and he has some big-time playoff experience. I don't care if he's only here for 3 months - he could be our Yankee killer in October, so let's make it happen. Rumors I've heard are Ramos and Hicks, a stud OF prospect we have or Ramos and Slowey...I am 100% on board with either of these deals. Make it happen. And while you are at it, let's call up some of these young fellas in AAA to solidify that bullpen!
World Cup - probably the final time I'll touch on this until 2014. All I have left to root for is my Netherlands as champions bet I made at the start (14:1 I think). Frankly, I've gotten bored with it all. The novelty has worn off, and I'm in real football mode now. Maybe it would be different if the USA wouldn't have stunk in the knock-out round, but once that was over I have pretty much checked out.
Now for the aforementioned real Football...56 days until the College Football Season kicks off for the Maroon and Gold!!! I am in full blown study mode for NCAA Week 1 trying to find the gems for Labor Day weekend. I'll ease my way into a little NFL work as we get into AUG as well. I know this may shock you all, but I'm kind of revamping my philosophy in picking games because I still haven't had that 70% season. So probably sometime next week I'll publish the "How to Bet College Football v2.0"...it's a much better system and much less dependent on ratings. I'll also start throwing lots of Conference thoughts and sleeper teams out there as we get closer and closer to the real thing. I hate to wish summer away...but I am. I'm ready for fall and the most successful NCAA/NFL betting season of all time!
If he goes to Miami, how can they have anyone else on their roster? So they'll have 3 guys locked up for like $16-$20M per year plus they have only 3 other guys under contract right now. I'm not a salary cap guru, but how will you have any money left to sign enough players to fill out a roster? Does a team of LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Townsend Orr and Bob Martin win an NBA title? I'd still put my cash on the Lakers. BTW, since when did Bosh become such a superstar? I mean he's a nice player, but the experts talk about him like he's on par with LBJ and Wade...not even close. He couldn't carry his pathetic Raptor team to anything significant.
Anyway, totally under the radar are the Woofies and KAHN! So far, I really don't know what the hell they are doing, and I question whether they even know at times. We're going hard for David Lee...another PF...and we'll have to overpay to get him. That doesn't sound like a good move. They really wanted Rudy Gay...who would directly take minutes from our #1 pick Johnson. Now I hear they are hot after Luke Ridnour, a PG...who would directly take minutes from either Flynn or Sessions or Rubio as early as next year. How can you be looking at another PG?!?! So we think we've solved our big man spot with Darko and Pekovic...I guess I'm okay with that. But with the imminent trade of Al, I really don't know what this team has up their sleeve. Obviously, we could be looking at some massive turnover on the roster with some of these proposed deals, and Al's value will be quite high once the high end FA PF's are all gone. This could be a huge deal for the Wolves if they play it the right way. I don't know why I continue to think this club has a chance...I should tune out for 5 years and see if anything has changed by 2015.
Elsewhere, MLB...go Twins! I hope you utilized your DVR again last night to catch a rare sight - a Joe Mauer HR!! Joe is basically putting up Brian Harper like numbers this season since signing his $900B deal. He's right around .300 with 4 HR's...wow, real impressive. He's going to have to hit about .400 over the 2nd half with an amazing playoff run to justify his worth in year 1 of this deal. On the other hand, our pitching scares the hell out of me. I don't know if I trust any of our 5 starters to be consistent game in and game out. That's why a Lee trade would be so huge...he's a sure thing as a #1, he's left handed, and he has some big-time playoff experience. I don't care if he's only here for 3 months - he could be our Yankee killer in October, so let's make it happen. Rumors I've heard are Ramos and Hicks, a stud OF prospect we have or Ramos and Slowey...I am 100% on board with either of these deals. Make it happen. And while you are at it, let's call up some of these young fellas in AAA to solidify that bullpen!
World Cup - probably the final time I'll touch on this until 2014. All I have left to root for is my Netherlands as champions bet I made at the start (14:1 I think). Frankly, I've gotten bored with it all. The novelty has worn off, and I'm in real football mode now. Maybe it would be different if the USA wouldn't have stunk in the knock-out round, but once that was over I have pretty much checked out.
Now for the aforementioned real Football...56 days until the College Football Season kicks off for the Maroon and Gold!!! I am in full blown study mode for NCAA Week 1 trying to find the gems for Labor Day weekend. I'll ease my way into a little NFL work as we get into AUG as well. I know this may shock you all, but I'm kind of revamping my philosophy in picking games because I still haven't had that 70% season. So probably sometime next week I'll publish the "How to Bet College Football v2.0"...it's a much better system and much less dependent on ratings. I'll also start throwing lots of Conference thoughts and sleeper teams out there as we get closer and closer to the real thing. I hate to wish summer away...but I am. I'm ready for fall and the most successful NCAA/NFL betting season of all time!
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
VEGAS!!
Alright guys - get your ducks in a row...VEGAS prices are pretty good right now, so I plan on booking next week. I have 3 for sure, 1 likely going, and that's it.
Currently looking right on the $480-$500 price tag.
I'm going to book next week so I will need to know by then if you plan on making the trip.
Once again - Friday OCT 22nd we will leave in the morning, we will return on Monday OCT 25th...battered and beaten, but hopefully richer. Staying at the Hilton this year and it looks like the best bet will be flying Delta on a couple of non-stop flights. FRIDAY and MONDAY are the only vacation days you'll need to burn...unless you are a teacher because it's MEA week so THUR/FRI are open anyway.
Last chance, plan ahead and make it work if you can. Let me know this week if you want to go and are going to go.
Thanks.
Currently looking right on the $480-$500 price tag.
I'm going to book next week so I will need to know by then if you plan on making the trip.
Once again - Friday OCT 22nd we will leave in the morning, we will return on Monday OCT 25th...battered and beaten, but hopefully richer. Staying at the Hilton this year and it looks like the best bet will be flying Delta on a couple of non-stop flights. FRIDAY and MONDAY are the only vacation days you'll need to burn...unless you are a teacher because it's MEA week so THUR/FRI are open anyway.
Last chance, plan ahead and make it work if you can. Let me know this week if you want to go and are going to go.
Thanks.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
JULY 1st - MLB Standings Check, quick NBA take
It's July - wow, closer to fall...I love it.
Just a quick MLB check today - here we go:
AL EAST
NYY have taken over this division from TB and BOS has made a nice charge. However, BOS has injuries now and I still don't trust their staff. TOR has fallen off and will no longer be a factor (as if they ever were). TB continues to be tough on the road and average at home, but I like their chances to be in the playoffs.
NYY AND TB ARE PLAYOFF TEAMS.
AL CENTRAL
Twins have dropped 3 games from their lead on June 1st - but seriously is anyone worried? The pitching will figure it out or has figured it out. DET and the SOX both have too many holes and both have played really well lately while the Twins have struggled. DET/SOX will both hit multiple cold streaks down the stretch run and the TWINS ARE A PLAYOFF TEAM.
AL WEST
OAK, what happened? Hate to say I told you so, but this club obviously couldn't compete for too long. They have gone from division leaders to 10 GB in 1 month! TEX and LAA will continue this fight through the dog days, but I still an on board with TEXAS AS A PLAYOFF TEAM.
NL EAST
My Hotlanta Braves continue to lead the way in the East. Mets and Phils held serve and both will be there through July at least. I have a hard time seeing the Mets as long term players, but stranger things have happened. The Mets are already seeing some key metrics decline, so I doubt they will last much beyond July. ATLANTA IS A PLAYOFF TEAM. PHILLY IS A PLAYOFF TEAM.
NL CENTRAL
Reds and Cards continue to fight it out at the top. The rest of the division might as well pack it in for next year. STL still has a huge edge in my mind over the Reds because they pitch better and have aces. The Reds have a lot of nice young arms, but no experience and no Pujols. CARDS ARE A PLAYOFF TEAM.
NL WEST
SD continues to be on top, but I still am not a believer. LA is 3 out and COL is 5 out, and SF is 5.5 out. I was all on board with COL last month, and I'll stick with it even though I am having doubts. SD looks like the only team that can play on the road in this division and their pitching has been insanely good (correaltion?!?). I'LL PENCIL IN COLORADO FOR THE PLAYOFFS.
No major changes from last month, but I bet there will be for August. Trade deadline is in July I believe, so the power may shift in one or two of the divisions based on what happens.
Now, onto the most talked about free agency period ever. So a few signings have already happened, and your T-Pups have made 2 of them. Unfortunately, they are a couple of snoozers / head-scratchers. So Pekovic I like, he appears to be a legit C in Europe, but we'll see if it translates. How long has this team been looking for a C? (since 1989 and year 1 of the Timbaaawolves). But giving Darko $5M a year for 4 years based on a small sample we saw at the end of last year? I'm just not sold that this is the best use of our money. So we're down to about $10M in cap space (before the inevitable AL trade) but I'm not sure we're going to be a major free agent player even though we have some $$$. David Lee and Rudy Gay are apparently our 2 targets. If either of these guys is signing on for the KAHNival of fun, that means AL has to be dealt and we will be out of money. There's a lot left to play out, but so far I'm not sure the Summer of 2010 has lived up to the hype from KAHN. We'll see...stay tuned.
Just a quick MLB check today - here we go:
AL EAST
NYY have taken over this division from TB and BOS has made a nice charge. However, BOS has injuries now and I still don't trust their staff. TOR has fallen off and will no longer be a factor (as if they ever were). TB continues to be tough on the road and average at home, but I like their chances to be in the playoffs.
NYY AND TB ARE PLAYOFF TEAMS.
AL CENTRAL
Twins have dropped 3 games from their lead on June 1st - but seriously is anyone worried? The pitching will figure it out or has figured it out. DET and the SOX both have too many holes and both have played really well lately while the Twins have struggled. DET/SOX will both hit multiple cold streaks down the stretch run and the TWINS ARE A PLAYOFF TEAM.
AL WEST
OAK, what happened? Hate to say I told you so, but this club obviously couldn't compete for too long. They have gone from division leaders to 10 GB in 1 month! TEX and LAA will continue this fight through the dog days, but I still an on board with TEXAS AS A PLAYOFF TEAM.
NL EAST
My Hotlanta Braves continue to lead the way in the East. Mets and Phils held serve and both will be there through July at least. I have a hard time seeing the Mets as long term players, but stranger things have happened. The Mets are already seeing some key metrics decline, so I doubt they will last much beyond July. ATLANTA IS A PLAYOFF TEAM. PHILLY IS A PLAYOFF TEAM.
NL CENTRAL
Reds and Cards continue to fight it out at the top. The rest of the division might as well pack it in for next year. STL still has a huge edge in my mind over the Reds because they pitch better and have aces. The Reds have a lot of nice young arms, but no experience and no Pujols. CARDS ARE A PLAYOFF TEAM.
NL WEST
SD continues to be on top, but I still am not a believer. LA is 3 out and COL is 5 out, and SF is 5.5 out. I was all on board with COL last month, and I'll stick with it even though I am having doubts. SD looks like the only team that can play on the road in this division and their pitching has been insanely good (correaltion?!?). I'LL PENCIL IN COLORADO FOR THE PLAYOFFS.
No major changes from last month, but I bet there will be for August. Trade deadline is in July I believe, so the power may shift in one or two of the divisions based on what happens.
Now, onto the most talked about free agency period ever. So a few signings have already happened, and your T-Pups have made 2 of them. Unfortunately, they are a couple of snoozers / head-scratchers. So Pekovic I like, he appears to be a legit C in Europe, but we'll see if it translates. How long has this team been looking for a C? (since 1989 and year 1 of the Timbaaawolves). But giving Darko $5M a year for 4 years based on a small sample we saw at the end of last year? I'm just not sold that this is the best use of our money. So we're down to about $10M in cap space (before the inevitable AL trade) but I'm not sure we're going to be a major free agent player even though we have some $$$. David Lee and Rudy Gay are apparently our 2 targets. If either of these guys is signing on for the KAHNival of fun, that means AL has to be dealt and we will be out of money. There's a lot left to play out, but so far I'm not sure the Summer of 2010 has lived up to the hype from KAHN. We'll see...stay tuned.
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