NCAA Football Betting v2.0

So 2 canceled meetings and all of a sudden I have an open afternoon...what better to do than help the world out by identifying some things to think about when betting NCAA Football.

To review, last season I was on a kick for power ratings. It made sense to me that hitting these power ratings correctly at the beginning of the year should help me nail down the best value picks. Well, I was 1/2 right. First major flaw, nailing down the correct power ratings is very difficult. Second flaw, this is how all the lines are set, so I was coming up with way too many pushes. In order to win consistently at this hobby, you have to identify things that aren't obvious and that everyone can't see coming. The oddsmakers in Vegas use power ratings to set their lines weekly using a formula which is very similar to what I was doing last season. If I could figure this out, you knew it had to be way too easy and obvious...and it was.

So what is changing for this season? Well, I have read a couple of books on the topic over the off-season (only 2 books I've read in the last year, and I read them each 3 times!). One was by a math geek guy who was convinced that a stats based approach was the way to go for NCAA Football. I have to agree with some of his points and will utilize some of this throughout the season in my analysis. The other book was an NFL book with some NCAA notes about a guy who looks at stats a bit but uses a lot of other factors when determining good value bets. A lot of this info is really good, and I will also use a bunch of his stuff when looking at games this season. I think everyone has to have their own system which is a hybrid of all the info you've learned throughout the years plus some of your own intuition and opinions. It's a science:luck mix, but by knowing as much as possible about what to look for, I think you can shrink the luck factor and improve your bankroll...and hopefully take down that magical 70-75% winners every week.

First, the stats side of the equation. College football relies heavily on running the football. The NFL does somewhat, but nowhere close to the NCAA. Running games and defense can dictate the outcome of most games in College Football. This pre-season, I am trying to get a feel for how all teams rate in the areas of rushing offense/passing offense and rushing defense/passing defense. This simplifies things and allows you to see the glaring strengths and weaknesses when going into a matchup.

Obviously, we are not able to watch every game, so how can we figure out how good some of these teams are that we can't watch every week? This is where stats have to come into play...and not just, "they won 31-14, must have played well." Looking at yards gained and allowed, 1st down differential, TO differential, and punt differential help give you an idea of how a team is playing this season. All of these stats aren't the end all be all for picking winners, but I believe you have to have some background on any team involved in your bet in order to feel good about your pick. And with all other things being equal, this should produce winners. Sometimes it's as easy as picking a great rushing team vs. a bad rushing defense...but not every time.

Strength of schedule is another factor that has to be included in any kind of statistical analysis. I used to figure these out on my own, which took way too much time. Now, I have conceded to relying on the Sagarin ratings in USA TODAY for the rankings of every team. This gives an accurate and quick look at what kind of slate each team has played and how the next opponent compares.

So to review, here's the first steps in preparing for a bet:

1. Review rushing and passing offense/defense matchups to look for an angle
2. Compare these findings to the strength of schedule to see if you're missing something glaring that needs to be adjusted.

That's the most difficult part. But there are millions of great stat sites out there so if you put in the time you'll find what you need.

Next, the finesse part of the equation. Shockingly, the team with the best stats doesn't always come out on top in the gambling world. Here's a list of other things to consider, kind of a checklist of things to see how they apply to the matchup you're looking at:

1. This is one that I can't believe I had never realized before, but NCAA Football teams tend to be extremely emotional and typically play their best games after their worst defeats and their below average games after their biggest wins. I read this and didn't really believe it, but after looking through the 2009 schedule, it is a fact. There are a lot of games where the results are unexplainable, until you look at the sequence of games and what happened the week before for each team and then you take this rule into account. It's creepy accurate, and I think this is something that a lot of uninformed gamblers don't understand.

EXAMPLES (there are a billion of them, but I'll just focus on the Vegas week 2009)
- CAL -4 at UCLA...CAL just came off a bye and a crushing 30-3 L vs. USC while UCLA was coming off a standard loss to ORE which stayed fairly close to the projected spread...result = CAL CRUSHES 45-26

- CLEM -6 vs. WF...CLEM coming off a bye and a bad L at MARY (16 pts from spread), while WF pushed a 10 pt win over that same MARY team the week before.
result = CLEMSON CRUSHES 38-3

- KST +4.5 vs. A&M...KST just got housed by TT 66-14, A&M played OKST close at 31-36
result = KST 62-14 IN A LAUGHER

- PUR +13 vs. OHIOST...PUR played horrible and got rolled by the Gophers 35-20 (11 off to the spread), OHIOST won big over WIS 31-13
result = PUR 26-18 SHOCKER!

- IND +3 vs. ILL...IND lost 47-7 vs. VIR the previous week, ILL played up to par and lost 24-14 vs. MSU
result = IND 27-14 WINNER

Basically, when you have a good team or even just an average team with good coaching, look for opportunities where they are coming off a HUGE win or a HUGE loss either in gross numbers or ATS numbers...that's when irrational things happen.

And while we're talking ATS numbers, this book pointed out something quite obvious that I never really thought about before. Don't waste your time picking teams that you think can cover by 1-7 points...too risky. Take the games that you are passionate about where you think it's a 10-20 point cover no problem. Nearly 1/2 the games on the schedule end this way ATS, so there are opportunities out there, you just need to focus on finding those.

2. Keeping your finger on the emotional state of a team is huge. Think about it, it's College Football, 1/2 the battle is the emotion. Bet against teams that have their confidence shot such as MIZZOU after the NEB rain game on a Thursday night last year. But this can also work in reverse, NEB got stung after this game as well because TT caught them when they were emotionally drained off a huge Thursday win. Pinpoint these marquee games and watch what teams do around these few games. Letdowns are a very real part of the logic, you can't be 100% up for 12 games a year so let downs do happen.

Another part of this is making sure you know what is at stake in a game. If a team is 2-5 with one almost guaranteed loss already left on the slate, they are going to do everything they can to keep bowl eligibility alive. Once that is lost, a lot of times teams will go into the tank. Or take a team like AUB in 2009. They started hot at 5-0, but once they got that 1st L and realized they were maybe not as good as advertised, they lost 4 of the next 6.

3. Coaching network - this is more of a big deal in the NFL, but I figured I'd mention it here as well. Basically, having a coach who was with one of your opponents recently is an advantage to you. Rex Ryan vs. BAL in the playoffs last year is a prime example. Coach Mullen at MISST against FLA last year is another. It doesn't need to be a HC, but anyone with relevant experience who would have some insight into what their new team could expect when going up against their old team or a team that they knew very well in a past job. Like I said, this is a little tougher to find in the NCAA World, but in the NFL you will see it a lot.

4. Turnovers - the ultimate equalizer. This can kill any great bet because it is kind of unpredictable. You can see team trends and even season trends on this to help factor it into your preparation, but don't get discouraged when you make a great pick and then lose on a -5 turnover day from your club. Bottom line - good turnover margin teams are good ATS record teams. Winning the turnover battle will likely win you lots of $$$.

5. First road games
The first road game is typically very difficult for most teams, excluding week 1 road trips. Week 1 doesn't really count because the team doesn't know any different and they have been preparing for that game for weeks. But that first real road trip, historically speaking, is not a really pretty performance. Especially if it's cross-country or if you have a young team.

6. Injuries
It's hard to keep track of these as much in college, but it has to be factored in if possible. Injuries to OL/DL are the main ones to watch for because they seem to have the largest impact.

7. Don't overreact!
Case in point, TEN vs. FLA last season. Ultimate revenge game, right? FLA might score 100! When this is the case, always bet against it. TEN doesn't want to be embarassed, and they played that way. Usually, hyping a huge blowout ends up going the other way. In the same sense, if a team loses by 30 in their first game but you really liked them coming into the year - don't bail out! I did on NEV last year, and they ended up winning 8 of their last 9 and covering 70% of them. When a team loses big early, it could negatively effect their lines going forward so there might be value there the next week.

8. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE
Picking a great defense and getting points might be my new mantra this season. When you have the #1 ranked rushing offense coming to play the #1 ranked rushing defense ALWAYS SIDE WITH THE DEFENSE. "Defense wins championships" is a cliche' for a reason. Defense also wins bets.

9. RIVALRY GAMES
This one was on here last year as well, but my opinion is throw nearly everything out the window in these games and take points if you can get them. I'm not sure if it's a psychological thing or what, but the DOG going into these games almost always seems to play extremely well and cover the line. There are exceptions, but it's a general rule of thumb.

10. Know the teams
Many of these rules won't apply to the really really good and really really bad teams. Some teams are just great and it's harder to predict. Plus the lines in most of these games are so ridiculous for most of them that they are not worth betting seriously anyway.

So all of these things could/should be considered when placing bets on NCAA Football. It's not as exact and straight forward as I threw out there last year...but it's more accurate. There are definitely factors that can tip us off one way or another, but my best advice is to ask yourself..."who wants it more", "what's on the line for each team", "what is the state of mind of each coach/team".
Even that simple step should allow you to find a lot of opportunities that aren't there if you look at stats alone.

Sorry - freaky long post, but I got some time on my hands this afternoon. About 55 days and 3 hours until kick-off for the Maroon and Gold...I'm so ready.

I'll throw out something similar for NFL games in the coming weeks once that league comes onto the radar.

Still loving this one...UNTHOUGHT KNOWN

All the thoughts you never see
You are always thinking
Brain is wide, the brain is deep
Oh, are you sinking?

Feel the path of every day
Which road you taking?
Breathing hard, making hay
Yeah, this is living

Look for love in evidence
That you're worth keeping
Swallowed whole in negatives
It's so sad and sickening

Feel the air up above
Oh, pool of blue sky
Fill the air up with love
All black with starlight

Feel the sky blanket you
With gems and rhinestones!!!
See the path cut by the moon
For you to walk on

For you to walk on...

Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing here...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing left...
Nothing left, nothing left
Nothing there, nothing here...

See the path cut by the moon
For you to walk on
See the waves on distant shores
Awaiting your arrival

Dream the dreams of other men
You'll be no one's rival
Dream the dreams of others then
You will be no one's rival

You will be no one's rival...

A distant time, a distant space
That's where we're living
A distant time, a distant place
So what ya giving?
What ya giving?