LTECH
BOISE -22
MEM
UAB 5
PITT
USF -13.5
OREST
UTAH -10.5
CIN
MARSH 3.5
BYU
UTST 28.5
DUKE
GT -14
BC
NCST 8
RUT
WV -13.5
AKR
KENT 4
PSU
PUR 12
IOWA
MSU -8
IND
MN -7.5
FLA
ARK 22
KAN
ISU 13
OK
BAY 27
WKY
VT -28
SC
OLE -2
UNLV
COLST -1
OHIO
WMU -4
STAN
ND -7.5
ARMY
TULANE -19
ASU
CAL -9.5
UK
ALA -16.5
TT
KST 6.5
FSU
MIA -3
ILL
MICH -2
TEM
MIAOH -7
SMU
UCF -14
EMU
BGU -21
NAVY
AF -6
NEV
IDAHO 24.5
ULL
ULM 1.5
AUB
VAN 3.5
SDST
TCU -24.5
UCONN
NC -7
A&M
OKST -24
MARY
VIR 14
NILL
TN -16
WASH
AZ -19
FIU
NTEX 6.5
UTEP
SOMISS -8
BALLST
TOLEDO 7
TEXAS
COL 14
ORE
USC -16.5
RICE
TULSA -14
OHIOST
WIS 2.5
MIZZ
NEB 10
WY
NM -11
HAW
FRESNO -21.5
WASU
UCLA -16.5
NFL LINES FOR THE WEEK
KC
CAR -9.5
TEN
BAL 3
SD
MIA 7
SEA
NYG -7
WAS
PHI -5
IND
HOU 3
ATL
GB
CHI
DET 3
TB
DEN -3
CIN
DAL
BUF
ARI -1.5
NE
SF 3
PIT
JAC -4
MIN
NO -3
NO LINE ON CINCY - DAL BECAUSE OF INJURY QUESTIONS W/C.PALMER
NO LINE ON ATL - GB BECAUSE OF INJURY QUESTIONS W/A.ROGERS
I will send out updates on these 2 games when lines are posted.
Get me your picks by the end of WED or early THUR.
Thanks.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
Week 5 Results
Ok - that was rough. NCAA week 5 games...WTF!?!?
This was by far our worst performance of the season - here's how ugly it was:
Overall 21-39 (.350), NCAA 13-27 (.325), NFL 8-12 (.400)
JR and JG split the titel for the week at a putrid 6-9 mark. MR takes 3rd at 5-10, MK in the cellar at 4-11.
We also set a couple of low water marks for weekly lows, Congrats to MK for tying my NCAA low of 2 wins in week 2. And congrats to MR for setting a new low on NFL wins with a tough 1-4 performance yesterday.
Overall, Roe continues to have an 5 game lead over JG, 8 over MK, and 11 over JR.
JG continues to rock NFL picks at 13-7 overall...above .500 every week - NICE!
MK is only a game behind him in NFL picks at 12-8. MR and JR are both 9-11.
Roe is still +15 on NCAA picks at 35-20. Nobody else is over .500...JG 26-29, JR and MK both at 24-31.
Total we are +4 over .500 combined for the season on all picks...thanks MR!
Okay, so what the hell happened this week. College football was a bizarre watch, what little I saw this weekend. Shocking isn't enough to describe some of the upsets on Saturday and Thursday.
Once again, I rocked in the "pick every game" challenge going 30-17 (.638), but chose a lot of bad games for my 10 this week.
GOOD PICKS
JG - OREST. Wow. I never expected a straight up victory on this one. The Thursday night curse was defintely in play, but how about all the morons who were pissed that the season was "over" after USC pounded OSU? The Torjan run defense was brutal, and Sanchez looked like a bit of a train wreck. Also, how to you try to play 6 RB's and split the carries - ridiculous! OREST isn't bad, but this one was comletely unpredictable.
JG - GOPHERS! nice back door cover on this one. The game went pretty much as I anticipated. We couldn't do much against that defense, and they ran well with Pryor and Wells to dominate and win. It was nice to get a couple of late ones to make it respectable. Honestly, this and in Madison are the only unwinnable games on the schedule, not that we should go 10-2, but I wouldn't be shocked with 8 wins considering how bad a lot of the B10 has looked.
MR and MK - NW! who hates IOWA, we hate IOWA! How bad was this loss for Cap. Kirk and the overrated Hawkeyes. NW is playing nice right now, but you don't lose a B10 opener to them at home. I still like the Gophs to beat them, and Iowa. The offense continues to suck, and the Cats porous defense couldn't be exposed by a pathetic QB perfomance by the dual headed monster Ferentz continues to employ.
JG - OLE MISS? WTF...how did this happen. I thought 23 was a little high for a spread but to lose straight up at home to a 2nd tier SEC club? Gator defense had looked so good - what happened? Tebow and Co. should have been able to score at will, but the defense should not have given up 31 to Ole Miss. Bad loss but since they are in the SEC this does not eliminate them.
MR - OK SOONERS - this wasn't close. I had a tough time deciding on this game. How fun is that OK-TEX game shaping up to be on VEGAS weekend!!
MR - MISS.ST - another one I didn't see coming. They didn't straight up win, but I gave them no chance at even covering based on their performance this year, and what has happened before on their trips to Baton Rouge.
JR - Super Obscure easy wins (SDST, NM, NILL, BGSU) all of my winners this week were under the radar games, which I seem to have the best luck with. I think when the talent level isn't at an SEC level the games are much more predictable, I might play this strategy the rest of the year.
BAD PICKS
Where do we start on this one...
How about JG and UCF? - Going into a winless UTEP as a 5 point favorite and losing by 45...ouch. I liked UCF in this one as well, but being off by 50 points is probably one of the biggest misses of the year.
JR and MK - TOLEDO...so they housed EMU 41-17, nearly beat Fresno at home, then they welcome in a brutal 0-3 FIU club that gave up 42 to an offensively challenged IOWA team...-18.5, no problem - FIU wins easily 35-16. Fuck logic, time to start flipping coins I guess.
MR and MK - PURDUE - this is not a good team. I have moved this game to the winnable list for Brew's Crew this year. I liked ND in this game, but not because they are any good, it's because PUR is that bad. They looked like they had something against ORE, but struggling with CMU and not being close at ND has moved this team down quite a few nothces. At least they only have PSU and OSU up next, 2-4.
JR and JG - BECKY - we should know better, we really should. In a week in which the Gophs were expected to lose, we came out looking like the biggest winners of the area teams over BECKY and IOWA. Up 19-0 at half when I started watching, and losing this game to a still bad MICH club could be a season killer. OSU and PSU coming into Madison next 2 weeks - sounds like an 0-3 start in the B10 for Bulemia and BECKY!! ha, ha!
JR/MK/JG - AUBURN - how dare we go with a favorite of 6.5 in the SEC...come on guys we should know better! AUB offense is officially bad, I need to stop picking them. By the way, TEN is now 1-3...Fulmer, your ass is burning right now.
JR and MK - Loo-Ville - why. I continue to get on the wrong side of the rolelr coaster with this team. If I pick them, they lose, if I don't they win. I think I'll just avoid their games from now on. They do play at MEM the evening of our arrival in VEGAS...what should we do?
MK - INDIANA. Bad, bad team. this should be a must win for the Gophs next week, because the Hoosiers are very bad right now. No run defense, no pass defense, Lewis can't throw the ball. MSU looked impressive in coasting to their 4th straight win, but IND may be the doormat of the conference this year.
RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM THE WORLD OF NCAA FOOTBALL
- Quick, name the 4 undefeated teams in the SEC...BAMA, LSU, and umm..ah..yep, that's right KENTUCKY and VANDY - is the power shifting?
- Texas has won 3 games this year by a score of 52-10
- Duke is 3-1, no basketball season hasn't started yet
- Virgina is scoring 9 pts/game against stiff competition (USC, RICHMOND, UCONN, DUKE)
- A&M will not win another game this year
- ILL is 0-3 vs. the spread this year
- OHIOST is 0-4 vs. the spread
- UK is giving up 5.5 pts/game this year
UNDEFEATED TEAMS LEFT
OK, OKST, TEX, MIZZ, TXTECH, UCONN, USF, NW, PENNST, BAMA, UK, LSU, VANDY, TULSA, BALLST, BYU, UTAH, BOISE - that's it, only 18 teams left
WINLESS TEAMS
WASH, ARMY, N.TEXAS - only 3. WASH is in nice company!
NFL RECAP
Vikes continue to suck, not a shocker there. I honestly think, if the Maroon and Gold can roll through an 8-4 kind of season, the state will officially become a Gopher fan base instead of a Viking fan base. When you look at how things are trending for the Purple it's really hard to get excited about anything on Sunday's anymore. While the Gophs have a new stadium, and improving team, and an exciting product to watch. Maybe I'm dreaming, but you all know where my allegiance lies.
NFL THOUGHTS
- don't ever let me bet on AZ again...Kurt "the turnover machine" Warner looked nice, if you forget about the 7 turnovers he accounted for...yep, 7!
- CIN and CLE are both really bad. I know, this isn't breaking news.
- DEN might be a pretender. They literally can't stop anyone. When Damon Huard and the Chefs roll up 33 on you, the defense is an issue. They will not be going anywhere in the playoffs with a defense like this.
- 76 yard FG trys...awesome.
- Linehan = DEAD. it was a good run. Do you think he and Daunte want to come back?
- Cowboys...hmmm, NFC East might be tough this year. I have the Redskins as a distant 4th, but that might not be right.
- Bears. Can't believe they won this game - could they be the North favorite right now?
- The Pack goes down again...TB is the TEN of the NFC, they never look like they have a great squad coming into the season, but always find a way to be a playoff team. Coaching might be the common denomonator here...both Gruden and Fisher rock.
- JAX can't play a game with a spread larger than 3...remember this for future betting.
NFL continues to be very unpredictable, not a surprise. We have one more week to look at it before we need to come up with some solid opinions on VEGAS.
Vikes never had a chance yesterday. Defense was disappointing, but offense continued to not do any favors. Sadly, I think this will continue. If we can't score much next Monday at NO, then our offense might not score on anyone. A loss there might even put the VEGAS game against the Millen-less Lions in doubt in my mind.
All right - these seem to continue to get longer every week, but it's getting into crunch time where we start separating the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL and NCAA. Should be fun.
Later Guys - I'll post the Week 6 games when I have them, and I'll send out a VEGAS prep email this week as well so we can coordinate everything for next FRIDAY.
Have a good one.
This was by far our worst performance of the season - here's how ugly it was:
Overall 21-39 (.350), NCAA 13-27 (.325), NFL 8-12 (.400)
JR and JG split the titel for the week at a putrid 6-9 mark. MR takes 3rd at 5-10, MK in the cellar at 4-11.
We also set a couple of low water marks for weekly lows, Congrats to MK for tying my NCAA low of 2 wins in week 2. And congrats to MR for setting a new low on NFL wins with a tough 1-4 performance yesterday.
Overall, Roe continues to have an 5 game lead over JG, 8 over MK, and 11 over JR.
JG continues to rock NFL picks at 13-7 overall...above .500 every week - NICE!
MK is only a game behind him in NFL picks at 12-8. MR and JR are both 9-11.
Roe is still +15 on NCAA picks at 35-20. Nobody else is over .500...JG 26-29, JR and MK both at 24-31.
Total we are +4 over .500 combined for the season on all picks...thanks MR!
Okay, so what the hell happened this week. College football was a bizarre watch, what little I saw this weekend. Shocking isn't enough to describe some of the upsets on Saturday and Thursday.
Once again, I rocked in the "pick every game" challenge going 30-17 (.638), but chose a lot of bad games for my 10 this week.
GOOD PICKS
JG - OREST. Wow. I never expected a straight up victory on this one. The Thursday night curse was defintely in play, but how about all the morons who were pissed that the season was "over" after USC pounded OSU? The Torjan run defense was brutal, and Sanchez looked like a bit of a train wreck. Also, how to you try to play 6 RB's and split the carries - ridiculous! OREST isn't bad, but this one was comletely unpredictable.
JG - GOPHERS! nice back door cover on this one. The game went pretty much as I anticipated. We couldn't do much against that defense, and they ran well with Pryor and Wells to dominate and win. It was nice to get a couple of late ones to make it respectable. Honestly, this and in Madison are the only unwinnable games on the schedule, not that we should go 10-2, but I wouldn't be shocked with 8 wins considering how bad a lot of the B10 has looked.
MR and MK - NW! who hates IOWA, we hate IOWA! How bad was this loss for Cap. Kirk and the overrated Hawkeyes. NW is playing nice right now, but you don't lose a B10 opener to them at home. I still like the Gophs to beat them, and Iowa. The offense continues to suck, and the Cats porous defense couldn't be exposed by a pathetic QB perfomance by the dual headed monster Ferentz continues to employ.
JG - OLE MISS? WTF...how did this happen. I thought 23 was a little high for a spread but to lose straight up at home to a 2nd tier SEC club? Gator defense had looked so good - what happened? Tebow and Co. should have been able to score at will, but the defense should not have given up 31 to Ole Miss. Bad loss but since they are in the SEC this does not eliminate them.
MR - OK SOONERS - this wasn't close. I had a tough time deciding on this game. How fun is that OK-TEX game shaping up to be on VEGAS weekend!!
MR - MISS.ST - another one I didn't see coming. They didn't straight up win, but I gave them no chance at even covering based on their performance this year, and what has happened before on their trips to Baton Rouge.
JR - Super Obscure easy wins (SDST, NM, NILL, BGSU) all of my winners this week were under the radar games, which I seem to have the best luck with. I think when the talent level isn't at an SEC level the games are much more predictable, I might play this strategy the rest of the year.
BAD PICKS
Where do we start on this one...
How about JG and UCF? - Going into a winless UTEP as a 5 point favorite and losing by 45...ouch. I liked UCF in this one as well, but being off by 50 points is probably one of the biggest misses of the year.
JR and MK - TOLEDO...so they housed EMU 41-17, nearly beat Fresno at home, then they welcome in a brutal 0-3 FIU club that gave up 42 to an offensively challenged IOWA team...-18.5, no problem - FIU wins easily 35-16. Fuck logic, time to start flipping coins I guess.
MR and MK - PURDUE - this is not a good team. I have moved this game to the winnable list for Brew's Crew this year. I liked ND in this game, but not because they are any good, it's because PUR is that bad. They looked like they had something against ORE, but struggling with CMU and not being close at ND has moved this team down quite a few nothces. At least they only have PSU and OSU up next, 2-4.
JR and JG - BECKY - we should know better, we really should. In a week in which the Gophs were expected to lose, we came out looking like the biggest winners of the area teams over BECKY and IOWA. Up 19-0 at half when I started watching, and losing this game to a still bad MICH club could be a season killer. OSU and PSU coming into Madison next 2 weeks - sounds like an 0-3 start in the B10 for Bulemia and BECKY!! ha, ha!
JR/MK/JG - AUBURN - how dare we go with a favorite of 6.5 in the SEC...come on guys we should know better! AUB offense is officially bad, I need to stop picking them. By the way, TEN is now 1-3...Fulmer, your ass is burning right now.
JR and MK - Loo-Ville - why. I continue to get on the wrong side of the rolelr coaster with this team. If I pick them, they lose, if I don't they win. I think I'll just avoid their games from now on. They do play at MEM the evening of our arrival in VEGAS...what should we do?
MK - INDIANA. Bad, bad team. this should be a must win for the Gophs next week, because the Hoosiers are very bad right now. No run defense, no pass defense, Lewis can't throw the ball. MSU looked impressive in coasting to their 4th straight win, but IND may be the doormat of the conference this year.
RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM THE WORLD OF NCAA FOOTBALL
- Quick, name the 4 undefeated teams in the SEC...BAMA, LSU, and umm..ah..yep, that's right KENTUCKY and VANDY - is the power shifting?
- Texas has won 3 games this year by a score of 52-10
- Duke is 3-1, no basketball season hasn't started yet
- Virgina is scoring 9 pts/game against stiff competition (USC, RICHMOND, UCONN, DUKE)
- A&M will not win another game this year
- ILL is 0-3 vs. the spread this year
- OHIOST is 0-4 vs. the spread
- UK is giving up 5.5 pts/game this year
UNDEFEATED TEAMS LEFT
OK, OKST, TEX, MIZZ, TXTECH, UCONN, USF, NW, PENNST, BAMA, UK, LSU, VANDY, TULSA, BALLST, BYU, UTAH, BOISE - that's it, only 18 teams left
WINLESS TEAMS
WASH, ARMY, N.TEXAS - only 3. WASH is in nice company!
NFL RECAP
Vikes continue to suck, not a shocker there. I honestly think, if the Maroon and Gold can roll through an 8-4 kind of season, the state will officially become a Gopher fan base instead of a Viking fan base. When you look at how things are trending for the Purple it's really hard to get excited about anything on Sunday's anymore. While the Gophs have a new stadium, and improving team, and an exciting product to watch. Maybe I'm dreaming, but you all know where my allegiance lies.
NFL THOUGHTS
- don't ever let me bet on AZ again...Kurt "the turnover machine" Warner looked nice, if you forget about the 7 turnovers he accounted for...yep, 7!
- CIN and CLE are both really bad. I know, this isn't breaking news.
- DEN might be a pretender. They literally can't stop anyone. When Damon Huard and the Chefs roll up 33 on you, the defense is an issue. They will not be going anywhere in the playoffs with a defense like this.
- 76 yard FG trys...awesome.
- Linehan = DEAD. it was a good run. Do you think he and Daunte want to come back?
- Cowboys...hmmm, NFC East might be tough this year. I have the Redskins as a distant 4th, but that might not be right.
- Bears. Can't believe they won this game - could they be the North favorite right now?
- The Pack goes down again...TB is the TEN of the NFC, they never look like they have a great squad coming into the season, but always find a way to be a playoff team. Coaching might be the common denomonator here...both Gruden and Fisher rock.
- JAX can't play a game with a spread larger than 3...remember this for future betting.
NFL continues to be very unpredictable, not a surprise. We have one more week to look at it before we need to come up with some solid opinions on VEGAS.
Vikes never had a chance yesterday. Defense was disappointing, but offense continued to not do any favors. Sadly, I think this will continue. If we can't score much next Monday at NO, then our offense might not score on anyone. A loss there might even put the VEGAS game against the Millen-less Lions in doubt in my mind.
All right - these seem to continue to get longer every week, but it's getting into crunch time where we start separating the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL and NCAA. Should be fun.
Later Guys - I'll post the Week 6 games when I have them, and I'll send out a VEGAS prep email this week as well so we can coordinate everything for next FRIDAY.
Have a good one.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Week 5 Preview
The conference schedules are finally here - enough of the Tennessee Tech's and Florida A&M's...it's time to figure out who the good teams are.
We'll start this week's preview with a wonderful quote from the soon to be retired left-hander Kent Mercker (I think this would be a nice mantra for VEGAS 2008), "I'm starting my new profession...turning vodka into urine." Who knew Kent was such an alcoholic?!?
Alright fellas, let's keep the hot streak alive...here we go:
It starts tonight with USC at OREST (+24)...I hate this line and this game. On one hand, you think USC rules, OSU has sucked - this should be an easy one. But the old "home dog on Thursday night" rule will come into play, and you have to think OSU with 24-0 lead at home...that's a good pick. MR and MK love the Trojans, JG took OREST...I stayed away. The Beavers will not win, but I lean toward JG on this one and think that they cover...USC 31-10.
MK and JR also took Loo-Ville on Friday night...UCONN can't throw and UL looked impressive last week...I like them at home.
B10
*MSU at IND - MK took the Hoosiers, nobody else touched it. I think IND is not good, and Sparty will continue to play well and house them 34-17.
*NW at IOWA - MR and MK like NW on the road. I'm not sold on either of these teams yet, so I'll take the points for NW...IOWA wins 24-23.
*WIS at MICH - this is the first time WIS has been favored over MICH...ever, yes really. I've seen a couple experts picking MICH, but I can't buy it...BECKY rolls in this one (according to JR and JG) 27-10.
*PUR at ND - MR and MK took PUR. I don't like either of these teams. PUR has lost a close one and won a close won, both at home. ND hasn't been impressive, but they have been lucky. Sadly, I am picking the Irish in this one...23-20.
*ILL at PENNST - I really don't like what I've seen from the Zookers this year, PSU is playing insanely well right now - this could be bad bad bad...33-14 (MK likes ILL, MR likes PSU)
We'll wait on the final, biggest B10 game of the week.
Other big games:
*NC at MIA - NC lost their QB last week and lost, MIA will crush this week vs. a no-offense Tar Heel team...17-3.
*TEN at AUB - TEN is going the wrong way in a hurry, AUB will be looking to stay in the SEC hunt...I really like AUB in this one at home...21-9.
*COL at FSU - this is in JAX, not sure what to think about either of these teams...when in doubt take the better defense at home...Noles win 13-6.
*TCU at OK - could be close, could be a route. Hate this game to pick - TCU plays D, but OK is scoring 55/game...hmmm, I'll take OK 28-10.
*ALA at GEO - two GREAT defenses, one good offense and one okay offense. Give me the Dawgs in the black uni's at home...20-10.
*VT-NEB - VT has squeaked out a couple of nice ACC wins the last 2 weeks and Tyrod Taylor actually looks like he could be solid as a QB...Huskers are unproven, if they can move the ball they should win...but they won't I'm calling for the upset here...VT 20-17 (for the 3rd week in a row they win by this score...may continue all season)
UPSET PICKS!! - here's where I see potential for the Dog to straight up win:
MARY over CLEM - I like a cover for sure
TEM over WMU - Temple at home is great (not really, but I'm not imressed w/WMU)
UCLA over FRESNO - I think the Bruins continue their unpredictability and show up big at home to beat a run down Fresno club.
LOCKS OF THE CENTURY (2-2 now after a nice rebound last week)
NM -3 at NMST...shouldn't be close
Bowling Green -3.5 at WY...BG is not bad, but WY really is.
In preparation for VEGAS here are a couple of locks on Teasers / Reverse Teasers:
Teasers Locks:
AUB +.5, GEO +.5, VT +14
Reverse Teasers:
WIS -13.5, MIA -14.5, Ball St -24
GOPHERS at An Ohio State University
Well, after looking at this game from many different sides I have concluded that the Gopehrs will not win on Saturday. Isn't it bizarre how we have gone from, can we beat BG, NILL, FAU to can we not only cover but straight up beat Ohio State? I can't buy in that much just yet. Love our chances against everyone else on the slate (except Becky), so maybe 6-2 in the B10. But OSU still has an unreal defense, which has slowed us down every time we play them...we can't score more than 21 points tops on Saturday. The Buckeyes and T.Pryor will probably make some mistakes and could have issues in the running game if Beanie truly isn't 100% yet, but you have to believe they will score at least 21 on us. Pryor, if he runs a lot, could be an absolute nightmare to defend for this club. They have a great O-line that should be able to run the ball a little, even though we are better against the run this year. Our young, beat up O-line will really struggle to protect Weber and run the ball and we will have to look elsewhere, because they will focus on locking up Decker. I want to believe, and if I'm wrong and this happens I might poop my pants, but I just can't see it...not yet at least. I'm calling for a Gophers loss to go to 4-1...An Ohio State 31 Gophers 13 - very tough line on this one...too unpredictable.
It is my 5 year wedding anniversary on Friday, so the Mrs. and I will be out and about all day missing all the wonderful NCAA action. I am going to DVR the game - and attempt to watch it later, but if something insanely good happens feel free to let me know.
Tough slate of NFL game this week as well. 3/4 of us picked the Vikes (not me) so they'll probably win again. 3 of us have DEN, 2 have SD, 2 have DAL (1 has WASH), 2 have PHI. We are 9-7 when more than one of us picks the same team...3-2 when 3 of us pick the same team.
VIKES at TITANS
D-fence! both sides try to play the same kind of game...it will be ugly football, lots of punts and running plays for 2 yards...yawn...but I can see the Purple moving to 2-0 under Commander Gus...9-6 Vikes Win!
Vegas preparation email will be sent next week detailing times, plans, etc...we're very close, only 2 weeks to go. Start saving your money - and be ready to turn vodka into urine like it's your job! (or Ron Diaz, whatever you prefer)
Later Guys.
We'll start this week's preview with a wonderful quote from the soon to be retired left-hander Kent Mercker (I think this would be a nice mantra for VEGAS 2008), "I'm starting my new profession...turning vodka into urine." Who knew Kent was such an alcoholic?!?
Alright fellas, let's keep the hot streak alive...here we go:
It starts tonight with USC at OREST (+24)...I hate this line and this game. On one hand, you think USC rules, OSU has sucked - this should be an easy one. But the old "home dog on Thursday night" rule will come into play, and you have to think OSU with 24-0 lead at home...that's a good pick. MR and MK love the Trojans, JG took OREST...I stayed away. The Beavers will not win, but I lean toward JG on this one and think that they cover...USC 31-10.
MK and JR also took Loo-Ville on Friday night...UCONN can't throw and UL looked impressive last week...I like them at home.
B10
*MSU at IND - MK took the Hoosiers, nobody else touched it. I think IND is not good, and Sparty will continue to play well and house them 34-17.
*NW at IOWA - MR and MK like NW on the road. I'm not sold on either of these teams yet, so I'll take the points for NW...IOWA wins 24-23.
*WIS at MICH - this is the first time WIS has been favored over MICH...ever, yes really. I've seen a couple experts picking MICH, but I can't buy it...BECKY rolls in this one (according to JR and JG) 27-10.
*PUR at ND - MR and MK took PUR. I don't like either of these teams. PUR has lost a close one and won a close won, both at home. ND hasn't been impressive, but they have been lucky. Sadly, I am picking the Irish in this one...23-20.
*ILL at PENNST - I really don't like what I've seen from the Zookers this year, PSU is playing insanely well right now - this could be bad bad bad...33-14 (MK likes ILL, MR likes PSU)
We'll wait on the final, biggest B10 game of the week.
Other big games:
*NC at MIA - NC lost their QB last week and lost, MIA will crush this week vs. a no-offense Tar Heel team...17-3.
*TEN at AUB - TEN is going the wrong way in a hurry, AUB will be looking to stay in the SEC hunt...I really like AUB in this one at home...21-9.
*COL at FSU - this is in JAX, not sure what to think about either of these teams...when in doubt take the better defense at home...Noles win 13-6.
*TCU at OK - could be close, could be a route. Hate this game to pick - TCU plays D, but OK is scoring 55/game...hmmm, I'll take OK 28-10.
*ALA at GEO - two GREAT defenses, one good offense and one okay offense. Give me the Dawgs in the black uni's at home...20-10.
*VT-NEB - VT has squeaked out a couple of nice ACC wins the last 2 weeks and Tyrod Taylor actually looks like he could be solid as a QB...Huskers are unproven, if they can move the ball they should win...but they won't I'm calling for the upset here...VT 20-17 (for the 3rd week in a row they win by this score...may continue all season)
UPSET PICKS!! - here's where I see potential for the Dog to straight up win:
MARY over CLEM - I like a cover for sure
TEM over WMU - Temple at home is great (not really, but I'm not imressed w/WMU)
UCLA over FRESNO - I think the Bruins continue their unpredictability and show up big at home to beat a run down Fresno club.
LOCKS OF THE CENTURY (2-2 now after a nice rebound last week)
NM -3 at NMST...shouldn't be close
Bowling Green -3.5 at WY...BG is not bad, but WY really is.
In preparation for VEGAS here are a couple of locks on Teasers / Reverse Teasers:
Teasers Locks:
AUB +.5, GEO +.5, VT +14
Reverse Teasers:
WIS -13.5, MIA -14.5, Ball St -24
GOPHERS at An Ohio State University
Well, after looking at this game from many different sides I have concluded that the Gopehrs will not win on Saturday. Isn't it bizarre how we have gone from, can we beat BG, NILL, FAU to can we not only cover but straight up beat Ohio State? I can't buy in that much just yet. Love our chances against everyone else on the slate (except Becky), so maybe 6-2 in the B10. But OSU still has an unreal defense, which has slowed us down every time we play them...we can't score more than 21 points tops on Saturday. The Buckeyes and T.Pryor will probably make some mistakes and could have issues in the running game if Beanie truly isn't 100% yet, but you have to believe they will score at least 21 on us. Pryor, if he runs a lot, could be an absolute nightmare to defend for this club. They have a great O-line that should be able to run the ball a little, even though we are better against the run this year. Our young, beat up O-line will really struggle to protect Weber and run the ball and we will have to look elsewhere, because they will focus on locking up Decker. I want to believe, and if I'm wrong and this happens I might poop my pants, but I just can't see it...not yet at least. I'm calling for a Gophers loss to go to 4-1...An Ohio State 31 Gophers 13 - very tough line on this one...too unpredictable.
It is my 5 year wedding anniversary on Friday, so the Mrs. and I will be out and about all day missing all the wonderful NCAA action. I am going to DVR the game - and attempt to watch it later, but if something insanely good happens feel free to let me know.
Tough slate of NFL game this week as well. 3/4 of us picked the Vikes (not me) so they'll probably win again. 3 of us have DEN, 2 have SD, 2 have DAL (1 has WASH), 2 have PHI. We are 9-7 when more than one of us picks the same team...3-2 when 3 of us pick the same team.
VIKES at TITANS
D-fence! both sides try to play the same kind of game...it will be ugly football, lots of punts and running plays for 2 yards...yawn...but I can see the Purple moving to 2-0 under Commander Gus...9-6 Vikes Win!
Vegas preparation email will be sent next week detailing times, plans, etc...we're very close, only 2 weeks to go. Start saving your money - and be ready to turn vodka into urine like it's your job! (or Ron Diaz, whatever you prefer)
Later Guys.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Final 2 NFL Lines for Week 5
Finally have a couple of lines on the Sunday night and Monday night games:
PHIL -3
CHI
BAL
PITT -7.5
Let me know if you'd like to include either of these games on your picks for the week.
Thanks Guys.
PHIL -3
CHI
BAL
PITT -7.5
Let me know if you'd like to include either of these games on your picks for the week.
Thanks Guys.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
NFL Games (not Sunday or Monday night)
Here are the NFL lines - I will post the Sunday and Monday nighters hopefully tomorrow:
GB
TB -3
HOU
JAC -7.5
ATL
CAR -7
ARI
NYJ -3
SF
NO -6.5
CLE
CIN -4
MIN
TEN -3.5
DEN
KC 9
SD
OAK 7
BUF
STL 8.5
WAS
DAL -11.5
PHI
CHI
BAL
PIT
GB
TB -3
HOU
JAC -7.5
ATL
CAR -7
ARI
NYJ -3
SF
NO -6.5
CLE
CIN -4
MIN
TEN -3.5
DEN
KC 9
SD
OAK 7
BUF
STL 8.5
WAS
DAL -11.5
PHI
CHI
BAL
PIT
Monday, September 22, 2008
Week 5 NCAA Game List
Here are the NCAA Games for the week - send me 10 winners - NFL posted tomorrow.
SMU
TULANE -17
USC
OREST 24
UCONN
LOU -3.5
MSU
IND 8.5
VIR
DUKE -7
PITT
SYR 15.5
MN
OHIOST -17.5
MARY
CLEM -11.5
KENT
BALLST -17
ULL
KST -21
NC
MIA -7.5
NILL
EMU 6.5
NW
IOWA -7.5
OLE
FLA -23
ARMY
A&M -28.5
WMU
TEM 4
ARKST
MEM -1
TN
AUB -6.5
COL
FSU -6
WIS
MICH 6.5
MARSH
WV -15.5
CIN
AKR 10.5
FRESNO
UCLA 7
PUR
ND -2
HOU
ECU -10.5
ARK
TEX -27.5
NAVY
WF -15.5
BUFF
CMU -6.5
BGU
WY 3.5
NTEX
RICE -18
COLST
CAL -25
ORE
WASU 19.5
WKY
UK -22
TCU
OK -17
UAB
SC -24.5
TROY
OKST -17
FIU
TOL -18.5
MISST
LSU -24
USF
NCST 8
ALA
GEO -6.5
VT
NEB -7
IDAHO
SDST -11.5
NM
NMST 3
ILL
PSU -13.5
UCF
UTEP 5
STAN
WASH -3.5
NEV
UNLV -4
SJST
HAW no line yet
SMU
TULANE -17
USC
OREST 24
UCONN
LOU -3.5
MSU
IND 8.5
VIR
DUKE -7
PITT
SYR 15.5
MN
OHIOST -17.5
MARY
CLEM -11.5
KENT
BALLST -17
ULL
KST -21
NC
MIA -7.5
NILL
EMU 6.5
NW
IOWA -7.5
OLE
FLA -23
ARMY
A&M -28.5
WMU
TEM 4
ARKST
MEM -1
TN
AUB -6.5
COL
FSU -6
WIS
MICH 6.5
MARSH
WV -15.5
CIN
AKR 10.5
FRESNO
UCLA 7
PUR
ND -2
HOU
ECU -10.5
ARK
TEX -27.5
NAVY
WF -15.5
BUFF
CMU -6.5
BGU
WY 3.5
NTEX
RICE -18
COLST
CAL -25
ORE
WASU 19.5
WKY
UK -22
TCU
OK -17
UAB
SC -24.5
TROY
OKST -17
FIU
TOL -18.5
MISST
LSU -24
USF
NCST 8
ALA
GEO -6.5
VT
NEB -7
IDAHO
SDST -11.5
NM
NMST 3
ILL
PSU -13.5
UCF
UTEP 5
STAN
WASH -3.5
NEV
UNLV -4
SJST
HAW no line yet
Week 4 Results - New Winner!
Congrats JG on an impressive 4-1 showing yesterday and an 11-4 overall record this week - you are the new champion of the world.
Our overall leader, Mr. Roe, did not disappoint with a 10-5 week. But he didn't win this time!
MK went 8-7 to improve to 4 games over .500, and even JR had a winning week at 9-6 to get within 6 games of .500 - woo-hoo!!
MR still has a 6 game lead over JG, 7 over MK, and 12 over JR...almost mathematically eliminated with 14 weeks to go!
MR is by far the leader for the NCAA picks with a 31-14 record (69%!!) Unbelievable.
MK and JG are each right around .500 with MK at 22-23, JG at 23-22.
JR is climbing back to respectability at 20-25.
NFL Picks have MK and JG as co-leaders at 10-5 overall (67%), while MR is 8-7 and JR is 7-8.
So I'm in last for the overall, the NCAA, and the NFL...f*ckin sweet.
OVERALL we went 38-22 last week for a 63% win - outstanding! Betting $50/game we would be up $800 overall!!
On to the games...
NCAA - I went 27-18 60% overall this week, finally a non .500 week for my "Pick Every Game with a line" NCAA game.
GOOD PICKS:
My 2 locks of the century both won, moving this record to 2-2. Tulane rolled easily, and Utah struggled but came back to do it for me.
GEO looked great, have to give all 3 of you credit on that one. ASU couldn't do a thing on offense, and the USC+9 (Pac-10) appears to be a 2nd rate conference this year that isn't even close to the SEC.
MR - Arizona, nice vision there. I was kind of believing in UCLA after the TN win, even after the route against BYU, I expected them to play well at home and win this game. Nope - UCLA is not a quality team, and AZ can score on anyone.
JG - nice call on VT, I picked the Heels to beat my ACC Pre-season champ, but I was wrong as usual. VT might win a lot of ugly ones this year and have already beaten 2 of the better ACC clubs in GT and NC. Wide open conference right now.
MR - Penn State and Texas, I love not being afraid of the giant spreads. These 2 continued to absolutely crush once again. Nice work.
JR - Akron over Army...this was an easy one for me, here's my secret (bet against ARMY every week...they suck)
MR & JG - Gators. Wow, Florida plays a little defense. TEN looks done. Too easy for the Gators in this one, very nice call here.
JR and MK - Canes! wow, quite a performance here by another Florida team. A&M is frggin' brtual, and the Canes didn't waste time beating the crap out of Sherman and the crew.
LSU - all 3 of you called this one. Jarrett Lee instantly put this team on the map for me. They went from, major questions at QB to wow, you just won in Auburn on a great comeback. Great call by all 3 of you on this one - I of course was thinking Auburn with the points at home.
BAD PICKS, a.k.a. (WTF were you thinking?)
JR - Houston. yep, I put 1/10 of my NCAA score this week on the shoulders of a now 1-3 Houston team as a 6 point road favorite. Don't ask, I'm retarded.
JR - Ball State will lose to Indiana, err, I mean Indiana is not good. This one wasn't even really that close. I'm marking Oct 4th at the dome as a W right now for the Maroon and Gold.
MR - FAU. Come on Mike! I'll send you a gallon of maroon and gold kool-aid asap. Then you can join the rest of us in picking the Gopehrs to straight up win over the Buckeyes this week...right Guys?
MK and JG - Pitt. Not really a bad pick, but it sucks to lose by the hook. Iowa sucks. As the guys on the video chant..."Who Hates IOWA?", "WE HATE IOWA!"
JR - Fresno. I kind of disregarded the let down factor after a big home loss to Bulemia and Becky last week, and I thought Toledo was worse than they actually were. Fun game to watch with 109 points scored, but Fresno should not be taken seriously the rest of the year after this performance.
GOPHERS RECAP
Very impressive. I think this might be the first time I've said this in my lifetime, but the Defense was very good and won us the game on Saturday. We completely shut down their attack - the game plan was spot on - and the execution and ball-hawking was something we haven't seen for quite some time. Offense rolled as expected, not overpowering, no major big plays, just a consistent point scoring machine. This was fun, and this is what I expect us to do from now on vs. teams like this. Brewtser is starting to get it, the team continues to gain confidence, and we are feeling good at 4-0. I'm going to have to rub the temples a bit before this week's prediction, the Buckeyes could be a tough one...but dare I say that we can have some confidence in Brew and Roof on coming up with a great plan to slow down this struggling Buckeyes squad. Early line is under 3 scores! Bottom line, 4-0 is great - a little unexpected, and definitely showing signs of progress.
NFL
Good Picks:
JR and JG - ATL! once again, how did we all not bet against Tyler Thigpen on the road. I think LeRoy-Ostrander would only be about a 3 point dog if they hosted the Thigpen lead Chiefs.
MK - TEN, this club just keeps winning. HOU isn't real good, but Collins and Co. look great right now.
VIKES - all 3 of you nailed this one. I wasn't a believer...more on this later.
JG - MIA! did you call for the cover or the straight up money line victory? Nice call dude - Pats appear to not be even close to what they were in 07.
MR - JAGS...nice call. Indy is another former AFC giant who appears to be down a great deal from years past.
JR, MR, MK - How about them Cowboys. Hands down best team in the NFL right now. To go into Lambeau and dominate was impressive. Too early for 16-0 talk?
MR - E-A-G-L-E-S, love this team and this defense. I'm also a Tomlin fan, but I loved this Philly pick off a loss at home vs. a rival. Injuries could be a concern at this point, but could this be the #2 team in the NFL?
BAD PICKS
JR and MK - Giants. who would have thunk that the lowly Bungals would play this well. Maybe betting against Cincy will not be a weekly must any more.
MR - BUFF, they trailed the whole game and didn't really look good until the end. Although, the are tops in the East and I don't think the Raiders are as bad as we all thought.
JR and JG - Denver. love that offense, but when they play someone who can score any line over 3 points is too much - the d looks very very weak this year.
VIKES RECAP
So I'm not going to say I was wrong because I don't think this was a Brad Childress offesne yesterday. Who would have thought that the change in QB would also change our playcalling, and if this was going to be the case how could Chilly actually think it's better to go with T-Jack from the start. Let's see, go with the youngster and have about 5 passing plays to choose from and run a 75-25 run/pass offense. Or go with Gus and use the entire playbook and look like the Eagles of back in the day and the current day by throwing it all over the field and mixing in a healthy dose of the run when they least expect it. Seriously, if you were not comfotable calling a game like this with TJACK how could you have put him in as the starter in the first place. A win is nice - the defense continues to rock - and Gus looked the part. If Gus stays healthy we should have a chance in the rest of the games - and we need #28 to stay healthy, which I really don't think can/will happen. But it was nice to see a better called game, and passes down the field and some unpredictability on the offense for a change. We'll see what happens, but definitely a step in the right direction for the Purple yesterday.
Okay - sorry for the longest update ever, I'll post next week's NCAA games today.
Thanks Guys.
Our overall leader, Mr. Roe, did not disappoint with a 10-5 week. But he didn't win this time!
MK went 8-7 to improve to 4 games over .500, and even JR had a winning week at 9-6 to get within 6 games of .500 - woo-hoo!!
MR still has a 6 game lead over JG, 7 over MK, and 12 over JR...almost mathematically eliminated with 14 weeks to go!
MR is by far the leader for the NCAA picks with a 31-14 record (69%!!) Unbelievable.
MK and JG are each right around .500 with MK at 22-23, JG at 23-22.
JR is climbing back to respectability at 20-25.
NFL Picks have MK and JG as co-leaders at 10-5 overall (67%), while MR is 8-7 and JR is 7-8.
So I'm in last for the overall, the NCAA, and the NFL...f*ckin sweet.
OVERALL we went 38-22 last week for a 63% win - outstanding! Betting $50/game we would be up $800 overall!!
On to the games...
NCAA - I went 27-18 60% overall this week, finally a non .500 week for my "Pick Every Game with a line" NCAA game.
GOOD PICKS:
My 2 locks of the century both won, moving this record to 2-2. Tulane rolled easily, and Utah struggled but came back to do it for me.
GEO looked great, have to give all 3 of you credit on that one. ASU couldn't do a thing on offense, and the USC+9 (Pac-10) appears to be a 2nd rate conference this year that isn't even close to the SEC.
MR - Arizona, nice vision there. I was kind of believing in UCLA after the TN win, even after the route against BYU, I expected them to play well at home and win this game. Nope - UCLA is not a quality team, and AZ can score on anyone.
JG - nice call on VT, I picked the Heels to beat my ACC Pre-season champ, but I was wrong as usual. VT might win a lot of ugly ones this year and have already beaten 2 of the better ACC clubs in GT and NC. Wide open conference right now.
MR - Penn State and Texas, I love not being afraid of the giant spreads. These 2 continued to absolutely crush once again. Nice work.
JR - Akron over Army...this was an easy one for me, here's my secret (bet against ARMY every week...they suck)
MR & JG - Gators. Wow, Florida plays a little defense. TEN looks done. Too easy for the Gators in this one, very nice call here.
JR and MK - Canes! wow, quite a performance here by another Florida team. A&M is frggin' brtual, and the Canes didn't waste time beating the crap out of Sherman and the crew.
LSU - all 3 of you called this one. Jarrett Lee instantly put this team on the map for me. They went from, major questions at QB to wow, you just won in Auburn on a great comeback. Great call by all 3 of you on this one - I of course was thinking Auburn with the points at home.
BAD PICKS, a.k.a. (WTF were you thinking?)
JR - Houston. yep, I put 1/10 of my NCAA score this week on the shoulders of a now 1-3 Houston team as a 6 point road favorite. Don't ask, I'm retarded.
JR - Ball State will lose to Indiana, err, I mean Indiana is not good. This one wasn't even really that close. I'm marking Oct 4th at the dome as a W right now for the Maroon and Gold.
MR - FAU. Come on Mike! I'll send you a gallon of maroon and gold kool-aid asap. Then you can join the rest of us in picking the Gopehrs to straight up win over the Buckeyes this week...right Guys?
MK and JG - Pitt. Not really a bad pick, but it sucks to lose by the hook. Iowa sucks. As the guys on the video chant..."Who Hates IOWA?", "WE HATE IOWA!"
JR - Fresno. I kind of disregarded the let down factor after a big home loss to Bulemia and Becky last week, and I thought Toledo was worse than they actually were. Fun game to watch with 109 points scored, but Fresno should not be taken seriously the rest of the year after this performance.
GOPHERS RECAP
Very impressive. I think this might be the first time I've said this in my lifetime, but the Defense was very good and won us the game on Saturday. We completely shut down their attack - the game plan was spot on - and the execution and ball-hawking was something we haven't seen for quite some time. Offense rolled as expected, not overpowering, no major big plays, just a consistent point scoring machine. This was fun, and this is what I expect us to do from now on vs. teams like this. Brewtser is starting to get it, the team continues to gain confidence, and we are feeling good at 4-0. I'm going to have to rub the temples a bit before this week's prediction, the Buckeyes could be a tough one...but dare I say that we can have some confidence in Brew and Roof on coming up with a great plan to slow down this struggling Buckeyes squad. Early line is under 3 scores! Bottom line, 4-0 is great - a little unexpected, and definitely showing signs of progress.
NFL
Good Picks:
JR and JG - ATL! once again, how did we all not bet against Tyler Thigpen on the road. I think LeRoy-Ostrander would only be about a 3 point dog if they hosted the Thigpen lead Chiefs.
MK - TEN, this club just keeps winning. HOU isn't real good, but Collins and Co. look great right now.
VIKES - all 3 of you nailed this one. I wasn't a believer...more on this later.
JG - MIA! did you call for the cover or the straight up money line victory? Nice call dude - Pats appear to not be even close to what they were in 07.
MR - JAGS...nice call. Indy is another former AFC giant who appears to be down a great deal from years past.
JR, MR, MK - How about them Cowboys. Hands down best team in the NFL right now. To go into Lambeau and dominate was impressive. Too early for 16-0 talk?
MR - E-A-G-L-E-S, love this team and this defense. I'm also a Tomlin fan, but I loved this Philly pick off a loss at home vs. a rival. Injuries could be a concern at this point, but could this be the #2 team in the NFL?
BAD PICKS
JR and MK - Giants. who would have thunk that the lowly Bungals would play this well. Maybe betting against Cincy will not be a weekly must any more.
MR - BUFF, they trailed the whole game and didn't really look good until the end. Although, the are tops in the East and I don't think the Raiders are as bad as we all thought.
JR and JG - Denver. love that offense, but when they play someone who can score any line over 3 points is too much - the d looks very very weak this year.
VIKES RECAP
So I'm not going to say I was wrong because I don't think this was a Brad Childress offesne yesterday. Who would have thought that the change in QB would also change our playcalling, and if this was going to be the case how could Chilly actually think it's better to go with T-Jack from the start. Let's see, go with the youngster and have about 5 passing plays to choose from and run a 75-25 run/pass offense. Or go with Gus and use the entire playbook and look like the Eagles of back in the day and the current day by throwing it all over the field and mixing in a healthy dose of the run when they least expect it. Seriously, if you were not comfotable calling a game like this with TJACK how could you have put him in as the starter in the first place. A win is nice - the defense continues to rock - and Gus looked the part. If Gus stays healthy we should have a chance in the rest of the games - and we need #28 to stay healthy, which I really don't think can/will happen. But it was nice to see a better called game, and passes down the field and some unpredictability on the offense for a change. We'll see what happens, but definitely a step in the right direction for the Purple yesterday.
Okay - sorry for the longest update ever, I'll post next week's NCAA games today.
Thanks Guys.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
NCAA Week 4 Results
All right, that's more like it! Combined we went 25-15 in NCAA Picks this week...let's keep this going guys. 60% winners is about as good as this hobby gets so let's savor this one. JR and JG each hit 7/10, MR nailed 6/10, and MK went .500 at 5-5, we could have easily been 2 better but JG and MK missed the Pitt cover by 1/2 point...at least they beat the Hawks!
Lots of good picks going today as well - this is looking like our best week of the year, which means we're trending the right direction!
I do think all 3 of you are smoking crack by picking the Vikes today, but I'm pulling for you! Enjoy the day - I'll send out a complete recap tomorrow.
Have a good one Guys.
Lots of good picks going today as well - this is looking like our best week of the year, which means we're trending the right direction!
I do think all 3 of you are smoking crack by picking the Vikes today, but I'm pulling for you! Enjoy the day - I'll send out a complete recap tomorrow.
Have a good one Guys.
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