Saturday, December 31, 2011

Saturday Update

After an eventful Friday, I figured I'd throw out a quick look at the standings...

BOWL W
GR 13
SS 13
TN 13
MR 12
CP 12
AW 11
MH 11
LW 11
MT 11
GT 11
JH 11
JG 10
RO 10
JR 9
MC 9
MO 9

Nobody went 4-0 or 0-4 yesterday, so not a lot of change on the leaderboard.

Today's slate, while not real exciting, could make for some good games. It's the final day of 1 point games before it really starts to get serious.

BTW - if any of you Aggie backers for this game on right now are shocked by this you shouldn't be. You could not script this game any better than this. Aggies open a huge lead (they've lead by double digits in 12 of their 13 games this year!) and blown about 1/2 of those. NW is not real good this year, but they have a quirky offense and always seem to find a way to sneak into games late...especially in bowl games. So if you're shocked that this went from 30-7 to 30-22 with A&M hoping just to hold on and win at this point, then you haven't been paying attention. The cover could still go either way, but that why you always have to take a look at NW getting +XX.

Good Luck - enjoy the next 3 days!!

Friday, December 30, 2011

Week 18 Preview & NYE Bowls

BAY just scored 3 more times while I turned my computer on. I hope you stayed up late and watched the Arena Bowl last night like I did. The lack of defense by those 2 teams was comical. Great offenses, yes...but seriously, anything less than 10 yards was like a loss for those teams last night. 17 TDs!! Ugly.

Alright. On to the important matters...$200 on the line in Week 18 + the total overall championship for the regular season. It could be a stressful Sunday.

PICKS
JR: MIA CAR HOU MIN BAL ATL KC OAK SEA NYG
JG: BAL SEA NYJ NO SF IND NE CHI DEN DAL
MR: BAL SEA NYJ SF NE CHI NYG PHI TEN PIT
AW: BAL NYJ CHI NYG DEN HOU DET JAC SD ARI
GR: BAL CHI NYG DEN NE PHI TEN NO ATL OAK
MH: BAL DEN HOU SD SEA IND DAL CAR MIN WAS
MC: HOU CAR WAS CHI JAC SF PIT MIA BUF TB
SS: JAC SF PIT BAL SD MIN NYG TEN NO DET
RO: JAC MIN NYG HOU CAR TB DEN SEA PHI NYJ
TN: MIN NYG CAR SF BAL TEN DET IND NE KC
MT: NYG CAR IND KC HOU TB WAS BUF ARI STL
GT: NYG IND BUF STL BAL DEN PHI NYJ NO GB
MS: BAL DEN NYJ NO GB HOU TB WAS ARI DAL
CP: HOU DAL IND KC NE SEA SD CHI MIA CIN
LW: IND NE DEN NYJ GB TB PHI CAR MIN SF
JH: NE GB PHI MIN SF HOU SD BAL NO NYG
MO: GB MIN HOU NYG IND NYJ TB CAR STL PIT

I have 42 as my number, still waiting on a number from a couple of guys - many of you sent in picks without a number this week, but I'll give a little leeway on that and let you get the number in by Sunday. I've received 15 numbers so far and NO DUPLICATES...how is that possible? We should have a clear cut winner this week.

Quick thoughts on NFL:

I think MIA beats NYJ. That team just feels like it's done to me. Rexy and his a-hole ways are starting to wear on that group. The defense is getting old and slow and San-Cheese is close to being on his way out. If they somehow sneak into the playoffs they could be dangerous, but I don't think they get there.

STL is +12 at home...DD dogs have not lost ATS at home this year. But I can't with a good conscience pick them to cover this one in a meaningful game for the 49ers. Although they don't score much, I don't think STL scores any.

IND-JAC might be the least watchable football game of the year. IND doesn't really want to win because they need Luck. JAC doesn't really want IND to lose because they don't want to play Luck for the next 12 years. A battle of 2 teams who don't want to win...should be fun.

I like HOU to show up and try to get the mojo going again before playoff time. They need to play a lot better than the last 2 weeks going into the playoffs. I also think they get a large emotional lift with Wade Phillips being back on the sideline. TEN has had all the chances to sneak in, but they just can't get over the hump. HOU ends their dream for sure this weekend.

I've been picking the Purple to win this week for about the last month. I thought it would be their only other win, until the miracle in DC last week. Bears are just done and have nothing to play for at all this week. Not that the Purple have a lot to play for, but I think they want to put up a good performance, win a division game, and win at home. That all counts for something.

BTW - the line we are using on the PIT-CLE line is PIT -7...most of us stayed away, but we have a few takers.

I'm one of the 2 on ATL this week to cover -14 on TB. I really think TB has just thrown the towel in on this season and ATL is looking to crush at home and get some momentum rolling into the playoffs. Especially if GB beats DET.

I took Orton in revenge mode over Tebow. I'm sure the NFL and Jesus will find a way to make Timmy TD win this thing, but DEN can't cover 3...at best they'll push it. Tebow wins by 1 as he kicks a 50 yard FG because their kicker is hurt.

I'm also only 1 of 2 on OAK. I think they got something rolling last week with the big OT win over KC. SD is eliminated, and we know how Norv's teams play without motivation...they don't.

Still riding the SEA train, they should have probably won last week, and they'll get it done this week. ARI is a smoke and mirrors squad.

Finally, you HAVE to like NYG on MNF. Home field, Romo banged up, rivalry game, crappy conditions...give me NYG all day in this one.

BOWL GAMES

GR and SS are our co-leaders at 11 points. JR, MC, RO, MO pulling up the rear at 7 points...which is still .500 and not bad at all. Everyone is doing pretty well so far. But it's time for some separation this weekend with 4 games today and 5 games tomorrow.

TULSA-BYU (-2.5)
4 on TULSA and 12 on Mormons. Tulsa backers include JR, LW, JH, MO. Why? Well, I don't know. Because I don't think BYU is very good I guess.

RUT-ISU (+1.5)
4 on RUT and 12 on ISU. RUT backers include JR, MR, MH, MC...I'm in the minority again. Really like RUT chances in this one, and it's a chance to pick again an Iowa school...no brainer.

WF-MISST (-7)
ZZZZZZ....zzzzzz....zzzzz. 8 guys on each, so it could be a big one, but really does anyone even care about either of these 2? No is the right answer.

IOWA-OK (-14)
6 guys blindly backing team Meth in this one. Their offense is one dimensional and that one dimension is now suspended...so they would be zero dimensional I guess. Honestly, if Stoops and OK give 2 shits about this one and show up at all after the OKST beatdown it should be over by halftime. OK 73 IOWA 5. Blacklisted Iowa backers include JG, AW, GR, MC, MT, GT....boooooo!!!! I'm going to be very excited to watch this one tonight after 20 cocktails. I hope their are some Hogeye fans to chat with at this wedding tonight.

Saturday Games

A&M-NW (+10)
5 on A&M and 11 on NW. Come on man, NW in a bowl game getting huge points...automatic for the people. Aggie fans include: AW, MH, RO, CP, MO.

UTAH-GT (-3.5)
6 on UTES and 10 on Tech. I went with UTAH simply for the "bet against the triple option with time to prepare for it" angle, which has worked the last few years. UTES fans include JR, MH, MC, RO, MT, GT.

UCLA-ILL (-2.5)
Probably the worst game of the entire bowl season. No interest from either side, 2 new coaches waiting to take over, 2 interims just putting in minimal time to close this thing out, 2 fan bases that don't care about this game at all. Fun. But it could be a big one for Bowl Pool impact as we have a good split with 9 on UCLA and 7 on ILL. I went with the fightin' Zookers one last time. JR, MR, AW, MC, SS, RO, LW are on Zook-less Zookers.

CIN-VAN (-2.5)
Early on this one seemed easy...VANDY no doubt. Excited to be there, CIN QB is hurt, SEC > everyone. But I actually think VAN is getting a little too much love in this one and decided to go with CIN. Collaros is going to play for CIN, which is huge. 7 guys in CIN and 9 on VAN. Bearcat backers include JR, MH, RO, GT, LW, JH, MO.

VIR-AUB (-1.5)
The grand finale of Saturday night. Only 4 on VIR and 12 on AUB. I am once again going against the mighty SEC in this one. I just think the whole AUB program has a funk to it right now...both coordinators are gone and their overall talent level is low this year. VIR is too pumped up to be in this game after a few too many down years in a row. I think they come out and play with AUB and win it in the end in a close one. VIR backers include: JR, GR, CP, MO.

Good Luck gentlemen! It should be a wild couple of days. My Sunday plan is couch, couch, and more couch...so I should be able to throw out updates after the early games and late games so you know where you are at all times. I'll probably provide too many updates as we go with a little running commentary because it's the biggest week of the year as far as weekly prize and overall title being decided on one day. Tons more Bowl Games coming on Monday, so we'll be previewing those as well.

Enjoy the NYE Holiday - Boomer....Sooner.....Boomer....Sooner!!!!!

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Need Week 18 Picks from...

Lots of stragglers for this 18th and final week of the regular season...send them to me today please:

ROE
HEINERT
CORCORAN
STEVE
OLSON
NELSON
M.THOMAS
PEYTON
LUKE W.

Also - please don't forget to include your SNF Total Points pick with your 10 teams for a tie-breaker.

BOWL UPDATE

All 4 of our leaders went 1-1 yesterday to maintain their spot at the top with 9 points. JG, AW, RO, GT, JH all went 2-0 to gain some ground, and nobody went 0-2 yesterday.

Standings
BOWL W
GR 9
SS 9
MT 9
GT 9
TN 8
LW 8
JH 8
MR 7
AW 7
MH 7
MC 7
CP 7
JG 6
RO 6
JR 5
MO 5
MS 0

2 more games today...here's the breakdown:

ND-FSU (-3)
5 on ND, 11 on FSU. 3 of the 4 leaders are on FSU with 1 on ND. I also like FSU - I think their D will contain the Irish offense and ND's ability to turn the ball over will lead to their demise once again.

WASH-BAY (-9)
Only 2 guys on the Huskies tonight. (MC and MT) The rest of us like RG3 and the Bears. It's just really hard not to pick this team right now. They score so many points and have so much mometum going right now. Give me the Bears at -9.

Full NFL Preview and huge Bowl Weekend Preview will be coming either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Bowl Update

Lots of 2-0's yesterday, and a couple of 0-2's...JR and RO.

But Bowl season gives you a chance for redemption every day of the week...so here we go again with 2 more games today.

STANDINGS
BOWL W
GR 8
SS 8
MT 8
TN 7
LW 7
GT 7
MR 6
MH 6
MC 6
CP 6
JH 6
AW 5
JR 4
JG 4
RO 4
MO 4
MS 0

TOLEDO vs. AF (+3)MILITARY BOWL
Pretty even split on this one with 9 on AF and 7 on TOL. Our 3 leaders favor TOLEDO 2-1. I'm also going with TOLEDO on this one, I think I pick against AF every year in the bowl games. I think the option game loses it's effectiveness when teams have a month to prepare...see GTECH. TOL has the turnover edge with a comparable defense. They also have an interim coach after their guy left for Illinois, I like the track record of interim 1 game coaches in Bowl Games.

CAL-TEX (-3) HOLIDAY BOWL
The nightcap is the always exciting Holiday Bowl. We have only 4 guys on CAL and 12 on TEX...CAL supporters include MR, GR, MH, MC...all with 6+ points right now. Texas has a far superior defense, which lead me toward them in this one. Offensively, they are challenged, but I think it could be a good game for them to build some optimism and momentum going into 2012 with a young QB and overall a very young offense. We all know CAL and the Pac-10 in general don't believe in defense, so I think TEX, with a big start, has a chance to run CAL out of the building.

STREAKERS

JG has won 3 in a row
JR has lost 3 in a row
MR has won 4 in a row
AW has won 3 in a row
GR has won 7 in a row
MT has won 8 in a row
JH has won 5 in a row

Some nice streaks, and 1 not so nice streak on this list. I've lost 3 straight with dogs, but I'm on 2 favs today! We're only 20% of the way through the Bowl Challenge, so there's still time for a rebound.

Good Luck!

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Week 18 Lines - $200

Here are the lines for the final week of the regular season. Also, one note from the review I sent earlier...
there is no MNF this week, all games are on Sunday so please send me your 10 picks AND your total points selection for the SNF DAL-NYG game that will decide the NFC East.

We are missing one game, PIT at CLE has nothing listed, but I will send it when I have it.

Please get me your 10 picks and SNF Total Points pick by THURSDAY at NOON.

Thanks.

WAS
PHI -10

NYJ
MIA 0

CAR
NO -10.5

DET
GB 3.5

SF
STL 12

IND
JAC -5

BUF
NE -13.5

TEN
HOU 1

CHI
MIN 0

PIT
CLE

BAL
CIN 2.5

TB
ATL -14

KC
DEN -3

SD
OAK -3

SEA
ARI -3

DAL
NYG -2.5

Week 17 Review...yet another Push

We've been betting NFL exclusively for the last 3 weeks and all 3 have ended in a push, so we'll have one more week to decide this thing. Not only will Week 18 be worth $200, but it will also decide the overall champion. Here are a couple of things to consider for this week:

1) We will use MNF total points as a tiebreaker for the $200 portion of the pool for the weekly prize...so please send me a total points number with your picks for this week.

2) Any ties that happen for the overall crown will be split down the middle. There is a total of $450 for 1st and 2nd place, so a first place tie would just split that pot.

Here are the final results from this week:

Week 17 W L %


SS 8 2 80.0%

LW 8 2 80.0%

GR 7 3 70.0%

AW 6 4 60.0%

CP 6 4 60.0%

MT 6 4 60.0%

JR 5 5 50.0%

JG 5 5 50.0%

RO 5 5 50.0%

TN 5 5 50.0%

GT 5 5 50.0%

MR 4 6 40.0%

MH 4 6 40.0%

MO 4 6 40.0%

JH 4 6 40.0%

MC 3 7 30.0%

MS 0 10 0.0%

We hit an even 50% for the week with MS's 0-10 mark. 53.1% without MS.
 
YTD W L %


SS 132 108 55.0%

TN 132 108 55.0%

CP 129 111 53.8%

MR 128 112 53.3%

GR 127 113 52.9%

JH 127 113 52.9%

MT 125 115 52.1%

MO 122 118 50.8%

MH 121 119 50.4%

RO 120 120 50.0%

JG 119 121 49.6%

JR 117 123 48.8%

GT 117 123 48.8%

AW 117 123 48.8%

LW 115 125 47.9%

MC 113 127 47.1%

MS 60 180 25.0%

SS and TN are tied for the overall lead going into the final week. CP is 3 back, MR is 4 back, GR/JH are 5 back. While the odds aren't good that you will make up 4-5 games in one week, anything is possible. I'm thinking it's probably a 2 man race right now, but if one or both of them lay a 3-7 then the door could be open.
 
Final Week 18 lines will be coming today.
 
BOWL UPDATE
 
GR 6


SS 6

TN 6

LW 6

MT 6

GT 6

MH 5

MC 5

CP 5

JR 4

MR 4

RO 4

JH 4

AW 3

MO 3

JG 2

MS 0

6-way tie for 1st with 6 points. Here's the list for today:
 
WMU-PUR (-2.5)
Only 3 guys today on WMU (JR, RO, GT) and 13 on PUR. WMU has a better offense and a bad D, so I'm expecting a shootout.
 
LOU-NCST (-2.5)
8 on LOU and 8 on NCST...the 6 leaders favor NCST 4 to 2. It sounds like it could be a sloppy mess at this game tonight, so I think that favors a defense/running team like LOU. Plus I haven't been that impressed with NCST all year, so I picked against them.
 
 
Good Luck - Week 18 Lines coming soon.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Week 17 MNF Update

Here's how we sit with one more game to go for the week:

Week 17 W L %


SS 8 1 88.9%

LW 7 2 77.8%

GR 6 3 66.7%

CP 6 3 66.7%

AW 6 4 60.0%

JG 5 4 55.6%

TN 5 4 55.6%

MT 5 4 55.6%

RO 5 5 50.0%

JR 4 5 44.4%

GT 4 5 44.4%

MO 4 6 40.0%

JH 4 6 40.0%

MR 3 6 33.3%

MH 3 6 33.3%

MC 3 6 33.3%

MS 0 10 0.0%


So the $150 is not yet decided because we have a shot at another tie after tonight. SS has posted a stellar 8-1 mark so far this week, but he went with the Dog Falcons on MNF at +7.5, while 2nd place LW is 7-2 and has NO -7.5. So this is the scenario, a Falcons cover, and SS takes the $150, a Saints cover and we move on to a $200 final week 18.

For the overall lead, SS and TN are tied with 132 wins right now, and both have ATL tonight...so these 2 will head into the final week as co-leaders.

In the Bowl Challenge, SS is also in the lead with 6 points - followed by GR/TN/MT/GT/LW with 5 points.

In the only game today JR, SS, MO have NC while the rest of you are on MIZZOU. After today we start really getting into Bowl Season with 2+ games every day this week.

Full standings update coming tomorrow. Good Luck!!

Friday, December 23, 2011

Week 17 Preview

Picks are in, 8 of you are already 0-1, MT is already 1-0...$150 on the line...here we go:

JR: MIA CLE WAS NYJ CAR KC SD PHI SEA NO


JG: MIA CLE HOU CIN DEN STL NYG TB SF ATL

MR: HOU DEN SF WAS CAR SD PHI NO ARI TEN

AW: HOU DEN SF SD CIN NYG MIN JAC OAK DAL

GR: HOU DEN SF NYG OAK CAR PHI NO DET GB

MH: HOU NYG CAR NO SD MIN ARI TEN KC SEA

MC: HOU SD PHI GB CIN JAC WAS STL TB ATL

SS: PHI JAC ATL CAR SF MIA CLE NYJ BUF PIT

RO: CAR SF CLE NYJ HOU CIN STL KC DET NE

TN: CAR KC PHI ATL MIA SD NYG MIN SEA CHI

MT: KC PHI MIA SD SF CLE NYJ STL NO IND

GT: NO CAR NYG MIN SEA JAC ARI DEN DAL BAL

MS: x x x x x x x x x x

CP: NYG MIN JAC ARI PHI MIA SD STL ATL OAK

LW: NYG MIN PHI OAK NO CAR DEN CLE CIN NE

JH: OAK CIN NE JAC SD STL SF HOU GB TB

MO: OAK JAC SD STL GB MIN ARI MIA SEA BAL

 
Game Splits
HOU 8 IND 1
MIA 7 NE 3
CLE 6 BAL 2
ARI 5 CIN 6
MIN 7 WAS 3
DEN 6 BUF 1
STL 7 PIT 1
NYG 8 NYJ 4
TB 3 CAR 9
JAC 7 TEN 2
OAK 6 KC 5
SD 10 DET 2
PHI 9 DAL 2
SF 8 SEA 5
CHI 1 GB 4
ATL 5 NO 7
 
By the way, the GB line we are using is GB -14.
 
BOWL UPDATE
 
JR, GR, TN, AND MT have gone on a 2-0 run over the last couple of days in the Bowl Challenge so here are the current leaders:
 
SS-5
GR-4
TN-4
MT-4
GT-4
LW-4
 
No games tonight...WTF? But the weekend has us covered with a couple of Bowl Games:
 
HAWAII BOWL
NEV-SOMISS (-6)
2 on NEV, rest of us on SOMISS. JG and AW are the brave NEV backers. BTW, JG did have a BOISE cover go in his favor last night for the first Bowl win of the season...congrats.
 
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
NC-MIZZ (-4)
This is a Monday game, and it should be closer than than our X-mas eve battle. We have a large portion on MIZZ (13 guys) and only 3 of us on NC (JR, SS, MO). It's a coin flip, I figured NC would play some motivated ball in the last game for interim coach Everett Withers, who ironically enough is getting tons of praise as a defensive genius who was just hired as DC by Urban at The Ohio State. Many forget that he was brought into the college ranks by the legendary TE coach himself TE Timmy Brew as our DC in 2007...yeah, the year we had maybe the worst defense that college football has ever seen. But apparently that has been wiped clean from the record of one E.Withers, so he's a god now.
 
Enjoy the Holiday - I will likely send out an update on Saturday once things start to shake out. Good Luck!