MNF - WIN for ROE or another push?

Just a couple of quick things this Halloween Monday -

First, 16 of us like the CHARGERS at -3.5 tonight, and ROE likes the home dog CHIEFS. A SD cover pushes the cash to next week so $150 would be on the line. Mike - 5-0 in the NFL? What happenend?!?!?!

What else....oh, yeah...this:

IOWA TROPHY CASE

Not even a Cy-Hawk in that thing...sorry guys.



VICTORY FORMATION!! We ran it well on Saturday, because Duane Bennett convinced Coach Kill to practice it in the walk-through Saturday morning because they were going to need it. Yes.

Is there anything more fun than reading Hogeye message boards after a beating them again? Nope. They're firing from all angles right now...Fire Ferentz, Hire Mike Stoops, why can't we get Bielema, why don't we try - at least the hoops team tries!, Hire McCarney, at least it's wrestling season (seriously, this is actually said on their boards).

Read this article by Doogie from 1500AM, it's great and informative :

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Gophers_staff_widely_outcoached_Iowas_in_upset_victory103011

And read this Hogeye message board, 534 comments...not much positivity:

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/10/30/2524262/minnesota-22-iowa-21-welcome-to-the-queso-bowl

Lots of "fans" complaining about how they're not going to spend their hard earned dollars (selling drugs) to go back to Mpls if this is the kind of effort they're going to get.

We had a coward sitting behind us who yelled and whistled annoyingly throughout nearly the entire game, but ran a 4.2 40 to the exit once that last 4th down didn't work out. Weird. He also incorportaed the Seminole chop and song as well as the Gator chomp into his Hogeye cheers. Interesting choice sir. This was the scene late Saturday night as the sad bunch headed back down to the land of Meth and Pigs:

If there has been a better Saturday I must have missed it. WIS losing on another last second Hail Mary? That was just the cherry on top of what could not have been a better day. The best part is that we have 4 more games, so building on this momentum could lead to a strong finish to the season. The WIS/MN game is on the ABC/ESPN watch list right now, so we won't know the game time until after this week's games. I'm guessing 2:30, but there's an outside chance at 7pm as well.

The infamous goal-post theft from Meth-head nation was shown by Kill to the team before the game...thanks for the inspiration guys.

It's going to be a good week/month/year.

Quick Update

MR at 8-6 and BOMB at 8-5.

BOMB on DAL at +3.5, ROE on PHI at -3.5....

DAL win = BOMB $100
PHI win = either ROE win or a tie and push to next week with a SD -3.5 cover on MNF for BOMB.

Week 9 Preview

HATE WEEK will finally come to it's dramatic conclusion on Saturday night. $100 on the line this week - let's see what we've got:

JR: VIR VT MARY IND MN USC FIU SJST NYG BAL MIN JAC DET BUF NE

JG: MIA MN NW PUR MIZZ KST NAVY NM ARK DET BUF NE STL CLE DAL

MR: MSU OHIOST BAY TEX ND ORE CAL ARK GEO TN BUF STL CIN PIT PHI

AW: MIA FSU NC MN PSU WIS FLA BUF CIN DET DAL MIN ARI HOU SD

GR: CLEM MN PSU MSU TEX KST OKST STAN GEO BUF DET PHI NYG CAR KC

MH: OLE STAN TCU NAVY MN PSU MSU WIS NW MICH BUF DAL NE BAL SEA

MC: UTEP AKR KENT BALLST BUFF TCU ORE FIU SJST IDAHO SEA STL PIT CLE DEN

SS: CLEM TEX KST WV ND TCU ORE STAN AUB IDAHO BAL DET MIN SD SF

RO: WIS NEB TEX A&M OK ND TCU FLA HAW SD SF BUF NYG CIN NO

TN: CLEM WIS MSU KST BAY HOU BUFF STAN WKY GEO BUF CIN NE PHI KC

MT: CLEM NEB A&M OK HOU STAN ORE OLE ARK CIN SD DET STL ARI JAC

GT: CLEM FSU WIS IOWA ILL OK BAY TCU ORE CIN JAC NE NYG NO TEN

MS: WIS MIZZ MARSH ND BYU JAC NE NYG BAL MIN CIN NO DET BUF IND

CP: WIS MSU MN PUR UCONN HOU TCU UNLV COL SJST JAC NE NYG BAL MIN

LW: MDTN GT NMST USC WIS NYG MIN IND HOU DEN BUF SF NE PHI SD

JH: VT WIS A&M OKST ORE ASU STAN ARK SC NYG BUF NE PHI SD BAL

MO: CLEM WIS ILL A&M TEX HOU SMU MEM STAN FLA MIN IND NO DET PIT

So far 3 games have picked games, and 3 guys have lost games...CP, MC, JR are all off to 0-1 starts. I hope this isn't setting a tone for the week.
 
GAMES THAT MATTER
 
Double-header Thursday kicks off tonight.
 
RICE-HOU (-27)
The play here has to be HOU. They are getting all the action at 4 to 0 picks this week. It's a big number, but Rice is bad, and HOU is aiming for BCS consideration. Go with the Cougs, even though I don't love this one.
 
VIR (+15) at MIA
I'm still not impressed with MIA. But everything seems to favor VIR in this one - they have the better defense, coming off a bad loss to NCST, and getting a few more points that the power rating suggests they should. MIA is coming off of back to back big wins over NC and GT and they just don't look like they're good enough to cover more than 2 TD's in this one. I'm going CAVS with 2 guys on MIA.
 
BYU at TCU (-11.5)
TCU on Friday night looks like the right side. BYU still just doesn't have the typical fire power to keep up in a shootout like this. Although the offense has improved for the Mormons lately, I think TCU's D will be up to the challenge and they win by 2 TD's. Don't love this one either, but I'll take the Frogs. We have lots of action on this one with 6 on the Frogs and 1 on BYU.
 
NW at IND (+10)
So you have a team who has lost 5 in row with a bad defense favored by 10 points on the road in a tough conference game? This makes no sense to me. My line would have been closer to 4 or 5 with 7 being the max I would put on this one. Clearly, IND is not good either, but getting 10 points as a young team at home to a bad conference opponent...I'll take it. Hoosiers win outright...33-31. I'm the only one on this one, 2 guys on NW.
 
MSU at NEB (-6)
It seems like NEB hasn't played well yet this season, so why would I pick them here? Well, it feels like the ultimate letdown spot for Sparty nation after the big win at home last week. Lincoln will be crazy, as a win would put them in the driver's seat for a B10 title game birth. What scares me is NEB's inability to throw the ball...ever. Sparty's D is good enough to lock down on the run game and for T-Magic to start shot-putting it out there. But the letdown angle for me is too great to like Sparty in this one...NEB 27-20. 5 guys on Sparty and only 2 on NEB.
 
FLA (+2.5) vs. GEO
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is always a fun one...if you're a Gator at least. Mark Richt never beat Spurrier, only beat the Zooker once, and only beat Urban once. How will he fair against Mr. Muschamp? My guess is not good. Brantley will likely be back for the Gators to kick start that offense. Statistically the team are almost identical with both having good D and average O. But Brantley coming back makes a difference to me. Also Richt's track record against FLA and being the favorite make me lean Gators on this one. FLA wins 30-18, because SEC games always have weird scores. 3 guys on each side in this one, definitely one of the bigger swing games this week.
 
ZOOK at PATERNO (-6)
I'm going with the fade Zook at all costs opinion in this one. His team looks beat. They've lost 2 in a row and they are coming into a BYE next week, I don't think they have any reason to step up in a tough situation at Happy Valley this week. BTW, my PSU call for B10 champ still looks okay as they are 4-0 in conference and playing some good ball right now. This one could be a snoozer...PSU 20-10. 2 guys on ILL and 3 on PSU.
 
CLEM (-4.5) at GT
I know it's CLEM, but I'm almost starting to believe in this crew much like AUB of last year. They always have that clunker when they get off to a start like this, but I'm not sure it's coming this year. The toughest game left after this is at a depleted SC team, so GT might be the best shot at a loss they have the rest of the way. GT is playing awful right now - as soon as I started betting them they have taken a turn for the worst and lost their last 2. I have to ride the hot hand and take CLEM here...44-34. FC world agrees with 6 on CLEM and 1 on GT.
 
STAN at USC (+8.5)
I've been waiting for this Cardinal club to slow down for the last 4 weeks, and I think it finally happens this week at USC. I don't think there is any way STAN should be giving more than a TD in this one, so I had to take the points. STAN's first 3 road games were DUKE, AZ, WASU...not exactly a tough slate. This one will be a lot different than those. I think Barkley and the USC running game can keep it close throughout and possibly squeak out a W...TROJANS Win 37-31. Only 2 of us on USC and 7 still riding the STAN wave.
 
WIS (-9) at OHIOST
I hate it, but I think you have to take Becky in this one. They are still a crazy good team and OHIOST is just not this year. Typically I would see OHIOST +9 at home and bet the mortgage on it, but this team just isn't there right now. Defensively, they may be able to slow Becky down a bit and keep this one in range for the majority of the game. But OHIOST's offense is so bad and one dimeniosnal that I don't think it will take too many blunders by the young QB to make this one ugly. I'll say close for a half, and ugly by the end...WIS 28-9. 10 on Becky, 1 on OHIOST.
 
IOWA at MN (+17.5)
Like I wouldn't pick the right side in this one. Here's the deal, our offense sucks. But if we can keep from turning the ball over so much I think there is hope here. This isn't the Iowa defense we're used to seeing, they are very average this year and they struggle with running QB's like always. If Q takes over and calls his own number early and often I think we stay in this thing. Defensively I really don't think we are as terrible as it seems. We've given up too many long plays, so the numbers look pretty rough. We also make too many stupid penalties. If we can cure those 2 things, this game is winnable. A good start is mandatory. I heard today that we have trailed in our last 39! games!!!! Let's try to play with a lead once instead of always having to comeback. McNutt is tough, Coker can run it, but the Iowa offense overall can be contained. I'll say GOPHERS maintain bowl eligibility and put it all together to win 27-24...sounds familiar. 6 of us are on the Gophs, with 1 on Iowa.
 
NFL
I've got 10 minutes, so here are the best bets...
 
NYG over a MIA team that has all but quit on the season and fired their coach.
BAL off an embarassing MNF performance smacks the taste out of ARI this week.
MIN covers the 3.5 but lses outright in CAR...21-20.
TEN is not a great team and shouldn't be a DD favorite over anyone, take INDY.
HOU...see TEN, take JAC.
DET over Jesus H. Tebow, but when you're betting against the big man you never know.
BUF is best bet on the board...WAS is brutally bad and getting worse.
I like SEA over CIN at home, since when did CIN reach favored on the road in tough environment status?
Give me BRADY over PIT, just a better team and off a BYE you know Belichick has some sinister plans for the beat up Steelers.
DAL/PHI - flip a coin, DAL is better but PHI off a BYE....I'll take points and DAL.
 
Good Luck - hope to see some of you celebrating with me and my buddy Floyd on Saturday!!

Need Week 9 Picks from...

LUKE W.
HEINERT
SETNICKER

Send them by NOON.


Thanks.

Wednesday Night Football & Things to Ponder

First, we have football tonight...UCONN at PITT (-10.5), so please let me know if you want in on this game before it starts.

Second, what did you think of our QB?!? That game actually played out pretty much like I had expected. Ponder looked the part, made a few mistakes, but ultimately led the club to a near miss against a really good team. AD had a huge day, but the recievers and OL that he's working with are about as bad as we've seen around here in quite a while. Not to mention our total lack of a secondary against maybe the top QB in the league right now...all in all it could have been a lot worse. If Ponder continues to improve and leads us to a few wins down the stretch, which I think he will do, I could possibly see some signs of hope for the future. Obviously, we have gaping holes in the OL (LT!), we need a star WR, we need a S and at least 1 more CB. Can we find all of these in the off-season...unlikely, but a nice high pick should fill one of these spots and maybe a gem or two in FA. If nothing else, at least the final half of the season will have something to watch.

- Houston Nutt was angry this week that a local Ole Miss columnist picked the Rebs to lose 49-10 to ARK at home on Saturday. Ole Miss proceeded to blow a 17-0 lead and still lose the game by 4 points, after which Nutt went to the reporter and said, "It ain't no 49-10!" So he's all jacked up and anxious to get back at this reporter after his team blows a 17 point lead to a top 10 team. This is what is top of mind for him? That's why Houston Nutt is a joke and will be jobless come December.

- Last Thursday in the UCLA-ARIZ game right around half time a guy dressed as a referee ran out to the field waving his arms and blowing a whistle. He proceeded to get chased down the field and start stripping off his clothes. It was funnny, and it incited a brawl between the 2 benches. Whatever, right...just a dumb college kid doing something stupid but harmless. Or not. He was charged with a felony! Now the kid could end up serving time for this. Maybe I will re-think my plans for the Iowa game this weekend.

This was such an amazing finish and great moment in college football last Saturday night. I think it was even more fun that Sparty let Becky back in it with those 2 late TD's only to tear their heart out all over again once the red team regained a little hope.

The Becky's were a little premature in celebrating their 6 game National Championship. They still think it's bull$hit that they should ever have to play a road game. Now this week they have their 2nd in a row...it's a conspiracy against the red team! Maybe they'll leave the NCAA and start their own conference.

I was laughing at one of these donkeys on Saturday night, my little guy Jace was laughing at the other...can you guess which is which? Big Bret and his timeout plan didn't make any sense to me at the end of the game Saturday night. Sparty is around mid field and driving to hopefully get a winning FG or shot at a Hail Mary, and Bret continues to use his timeouts for them in hope that his D will make a stop and get the ball back in regulation? In theory, I understand what he was going for, but is this really the right move? You've dominated the last 10 minutes of the game and you have to believe that Sparty was content on sending this to OT and just surviving the final run by Becky. Using the extra timeouts forced Sparty to try and make a big play, which they did, and then allowed them a shot at that last heave to the end zone. Thanks Bret - you are a true Iowan at heart.

Speaking of the southerners...

I hope this guy is sitting by me on Saturday. You know he'll be there. Look out for this guy as well...

P.S.A. : They're wrestlers, you know...all of them...even the feminine ones. This background combined with mass amounts of extremely bad cheap beer creates ugly aggressiveness. They will all have their singlets on under their overalls and they will all be either wearing their headgear or have it in the pickup nearby. Their sleeves will be freshly torn off, for the big trip to the "city" they like to look their best. So you have been warned, any contact with these beings will likely result in a confrontation, because that's what they do. I witnessed 2 Hogeye fans in a Becky bar a few years back watching the Badgers beat them again, and literally these 2 started challenging everyone in the bar to a fight and taking their shirts off and breaking things. They can't help it...it's what they do. Win or lose, they will be jackasses.

So, what else we got. Here's this stat to cheer up all of us Gopher backers: OK was the largest favorite to lose outright this season, the previous "worst" loss...MIN as a 18.5 point favorite losing outright to NMST. Woo-hoo! We are not the worst at something any more! Honestly, I think IND is actually worse than us right now. They also only have 1 win, but it came against a D1AA school in South Carolina State. At least we have a D1 win, right? IND went to Iowa and lost by 21 points. If we're equals with IND, then the lines should swing 6 points in our favor with the home/road reversal, so we should be +15, but we're at 17.5...sounds like a winner to me!

Honestly, I think we are improving in some areas. We've only allowed 1 sack in the last 2 games vs. 13 in the first 5. Our run defense is terrible, but our pass defense has actually been quite decent. Where we're losing these games for the most part is in the turnover battle. We are at a -6 in B10 play right now. We've only been on the + side of the TO margin one time...when we beat MIAOH. Let's hope we can get it all together starting this week.

In the NFL, I have a couple things to discuss.

First, John Fox, HC of DEN, has coached 358 NFL games over 23 years, and Sunday was the first time his team had ever recovered an onside kick. TEBOW?

Speaking of the savior, Cowherd made a great call this week when he said, "you can't be a hero, when the fire you're putting out is one that you started." This is so very accurate, and it seems like most of the world is missing this from Sunday. DEN should have clobbered MIA. The Dolphins WANT to lose. They have nothing to gain by winning. Tebow threw for 24 yards in the first 3 quarters! He dug them into the mess, and then once the Fins laid down we brought them back to win. I feel like the oddsmakers are falling for this crap as well by only making them a 3.5 point dog at home with DET this week. It's not that I want to hate the guy, he's just not very good. But it appears as if something is on his side, so I guess we'll keep watching and see where it goes.

NFL teams off a BYE have always been a good betting trend. This year, teams off the BYE are only 5-6-1 in their next game. I think it's changed a little, at this point to give a team an edge off a BYE I think they have to have a good coach, which only about 1/3 of the league has. They also have to be in the right spot. A team's performance off a BYE can tell you a lot, in my opinion, about their coach. TEN last week, I thought they had a good coach, but they lose to an undermanned HOU team at home 41-7...instantly he goes to the bad coach pile in my mind. There are a lot of "good" coaches coming off a BYE this week (Coughlin, Reid, Belichick, Jim Harbaugh?) Then you also have Jauron and Marvin Lewis off of a BYE with their surprising teams. Tough to not like the chances of any of these guys this week, but I would panic if I see one of these teams come out flat this week. If you can't play with fire after a week off and 2 weeks to prepare for this opponent, then there is something else wrong.

Lots of big games this week in the NCAA, and lots of big lines this week in the NFL - should make for an interesting $100 week!! Good Luck, send me your picks when you can. One last note, for those who paid with a check, I cashed all of those today - sorry for the delay, I actually kind of forgot about them.

WHO HATES IOWA?!?!?

I HATE IOWA.

TROY-FIU

MC and I are taking FIU tonight at -4.5....pray for us.

Week 9 Lines - $100 week, mid point of the season

Our 3rd $100 week is here! The last 2 have been won with 12-3 records, so bring your best game this week to make back your cash. It's also the half-way point in the season, I know...sad.

Send me your best 15 in the quest for $100 - we also have TUES, WED, THU, FRI night football this week and every week until Thanksgiving. If there was ever a time to get hot, this would be it.

SUN BELT TUESDAY

TROY
FIU -4.5

BIGEAST WEDNESDAY

UCONN
PITT -10.5

DOUBLE HEADER THURSDAY

RICE
HOU -27

VIR
MIA -15

MORMON FRIDAY

BYU
TCU -11.5

Please be sure to send me these picks before they start if you want action on any of these games (TUES/WED). Here's the rest of the list:

NCST
FSU -20

NW
IND 10

SYR
LOU -4

PUR
MICH -15

MSU
NEB -6

UAB
MARSH -6

CMU
AKR 8

MIZZ
A&M -11

ARK
VAN 12

VT
DUKE 14

BGU
KENT 4.5

BALLST
WMU -13

AF
NM 29

BC
MARY -7.5

WASU
ORE -33

FLA
GEO -2.5

IOWA
MN 17.5

TULANE
ECU -17

WF
NC -7

WV
RUT 7.5

BUFF
MIAOH -7.5

BAY
OKST -18

SMU
TULSA -3

ILL
PSU -6

OK
KST 13.5

WKY
ULM -6.5

NAVY
ND -17.5

MEM
UCF -29.5

SJST
LT -9.5

HAW
IDAHO 10.5

COLST
UNLV 3

COL
ASU -30.5

OLE
AUB -10.5

CAL
UCLA 5

MISST
UK 10.5

KAN
TEX -23.5

OREST
UTAH -7

NTEX
ARKST -14.5

ISU
TT -17

SC
TN 7

ULL
MDTN -3

CLEM
GT 4.5

NEV
NMST 15

STAN
USC 8.5

WIS
OHIOST 9

SOMISS
UTEP 11

WY
SDST -17

NFL

AZ
WASH -7.5

NO
STL 15.5

MIA
NYG -10.5

ARI
BAL -13

MIN
CAR -3.5

IND
TEN -10.5

JAC
HOU -10

DET
DEN 3.5

WAS
BUF -4.5

CIN
SEA 1

CLE
SF -10

NE
PIT 2.5

DAL
PHI -3.5

SD
KC 3.5

Week 8 Review

Hammer is probably still cursing the brutal performance by the Ravens last night that cost him $50. I think tonight's Tuesday Night Sun Belt action will be more entertaining than that thing last night.

YTD OVERALL STANDINGS


TOTAL W L %


MR 71 49 59.2%

SS 70 50 58.3%

MO 68 52 56.7%

JH 68 52 56.7%

RO 67 53 55.8%

CP 67 53 55.8%

GR 66 54 55.0%

TN 65 55 54.2%

MH 64 56 53.3%

MT 64 56 53.3%

GT 62 58 51.7%

LW 60 60 50.0%

AW 60 60 50.0%

JR 58 62 48.3%

MC 58 62 48.3%

MS 58 62 48.3%

JG 56 64 46.7%


Roe has dipped below 60%, and we still have 7 guys within 5 games of the lead. 52.9% in total right now, and dropping every week.
 
WEEK 8
Week 8 W L %


MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

MO 10 5 66.7%

JH 10 5 66.7%

AW 8 7 53.3%

MH 8 7 53.3%

MC 8 7 53.3%

SS 8 7 53.3%

JR 7 8 46.7%

CP 7 8 46.7%

GT 7 8 46.7%

MR 6 9 40.0%

RO 6 9 40.0%

MT 6 9 40.0%

JG 5 10 33.3%

GR 5 10 33.3%

LW 5 10 33.3%

TN 4 11 26.7%


An ugly 45.8% in total this week, that's how you go broke fast. Only 6 guys over .500 for the week. 45% in NCAA and 47% in NFL. The return of the underdog crushed a lot of hopes and dreams this week.
 
TOTAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL
 
NCAA W L %


MR 58 27 68.2%

MS 32 17 65.3%

SS 48 27 64.0%

CP 53 32 62.4%

MO 50 31 61.7%

GR 46 33 58.2%

TN 48 36 57.1%

MH 47 38 55.3%

RO 43 35 55.1%

JH 43 36 54.4%

GT 33 28 54.1%

MT 36 31 53.7%

AW 36 37 49.3%

LW 25 27 48.1%

MC 39 46 45.9%

JG 24 33 42.1%

JR 31 44 41.3%

55.4% for the year in NCAA, still making money...most of us. I think a trained monkey could hit more than 41.3%, so clearly I am not at that level yet.

NFL TOTAL YTD

NFL W L %


JH 25 16 61.0%

JR 27 18 60.0%

RO 24 18 57.1%

MC 19 16 54.3%

MT 28 25 52.8%

LW 35 33 51.5%

AW 24 23 51.1%

JG 32 31 50.8%

GT 29 30 49.2%

SS 22 23 48.9%

GR 20 21 48.8%

MH 17 18 48.6%

TN 17 19 47.2%

MO 18 21 46.2%

CP 14 21 40.0%

MR 13 22 37.1%

MS 26 45 36.6%

Hammer wrestled away the lead from me in the NFL totals. For the year, we are below 50% coming in at 49.4%.

Week 9 lines will be coming this afternoon - waiting on lots of NFL games that are still not listed. So until then...