Saturday, October 31, 2009

I told you

We were not going tolose ghat game. Watching the locker room scene
made me live brew and crew even mote. I'm behind these motherfuvkets
ilintil the end. Win the next 3 and make it a great year. Go Gophs!
Couldn't be prouder tonight,... And drunk, fucking awesome! Who Hates
Iowa?!?!? I hate Iowa!!!! How gay was that win today??? Fucking weak
dude. 11pm, probably should try and sleep considering little man will
be up in a few. yeah right, totally jacked right now. What a great
win! Where has this offense been all year??? JC, we lookedlike a
difffetent team! And s 4 star RB just cimmitted. The running game will
get better... But savoring a win righgnoe. Beat Illinois, Brag SDSU,
fucking bring it to pig land. They are nit ghat good... It's been
proven. Sweatervest will put them in their place. Then weseal ghe deal
and put PSU or OSU in rose bowl. Who Hates Iowa?!?! I'm thinking of
running sown the block and burning dbags hogeye flag, think I would go
to jail? Might be worth it

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Week 9 Picks

We're locked and loaded for week 9...here we go:

NCAAF
JR: FSU, CIN, OLE, BOISE, CAL, A&M, PSU, MN, USC, UCF
JG: NC, FSU, PUR, IND, AUB, CAL, GEO, MIA, A&M, MN
MR: CIN, AUB, BOISE, GEO, KAN, VAN, WASU, MN, UTAH, USC
MK: WV, UCONN, WIS, VIR, NW, MISST, WASU, OKST, MN, ORE
AW: WV, WIS, IOWA, MIZZ, CAL, GEO, BC, AF, PSU, MSU
GR: ECU(W), VT, CIN, WIS, OLE, MICH, PSU, GT, TEX, USC
MH: CIN, WIS, IOWA, BOISE, MICH, NAVY, PSU, TEX, MN, USC
MC: BALLST, ULL, NILL, KENT, MIAOH, NTEX, AF, MDTN, FRES, NM

NFL
JR: STL, IND, NYG, MIN, ARI
JG: BUF, STL, SF, MIN, ATL
MR: HOU, SEA, STL, IND, ARI
MK: HOU, IND, NYJ, MIN, ATL
AW: DEN, HOU, JAC, OAK, MIN
GR: CLE, IND, NYJ, MIN, ARI
MH: BAL, HOU, IND, MIN, NO
MC: HOU, CLE, SEA, STL, SF

Consensus Picks:
CIN, MN
HOU, STL, MIN

Looks like a big football weekend for the great state of MN. Lot's of positivity considering we have 2 tough games on the slate this weekend.

HARASSMENT

- GR locked up a 1-0 start with an easy one on TUESDAY...Memphis sucks!!

- JG is backing the Tar Heels...JG, I know hoops season is around the corner, but the NC offense in football might be worse than the Gophs and they are playing in Blacksburg at night...I don't like your chances. 34-7 VT.

- MK made the cardinal sin of betting on a UCONN game...no matter what you will lose because it's impossible to win when betting on UCONN FB. MK took UCONN, so RUT is an easy cover.

- JR and JG are the only ones on FSU? Come on, are people still holding out hope that the NCST defense will stop anyone? Not with Jimbo and that offense coming to town.

- CIN at SYR...house! next.

- Nobody bet it, but I think OHIOST -39.5 is a little steep.

- JG is on PUR, 4 on WIS...I am leaning toward JG. PUR, if they can continue to not turn the ball over, will really compete in this game. I hate their D against the WIS running game, but they'll have no problem scoring on the Badgers assuming they don't give the ball away. PUR pulls the upset...41-35

- JG doesn't disappoint and picks IND over iOWA. I guarantee iOWA will struggle in either the IND or NW game one of these next 2 weeks at home. Coming off the emotional one in Spartyville or looking ahead to Columbus will get them. Just think how devastated they'll be come 11/21 off a bad loss in Columbus!!

- OLE-AUB, I'm loving OLE in this one. AUB is being exposed. The offense has slowed down big time, and the D hasn't stopped anyone all year...nice work Teddy Roof. OLE is looking like the team they were projected to be and will run wild at AUB this weekend. OLE Big 34-13

- NEB at BAY...Huskers turn it over less than 8 times and they have a chance. IALTO.

- BOMB likes MIZZ at COL. I think this is a safe pick, COL is still terrible and MIZZ has to come around and play better this week.

- BOISE -33, I'll take it. You can name your number with BOISE and 90% of the time they'll cover.

- UTEP -6.5...my guys are hitting their stride and could possibly win the CUSA!

- World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party...GEO +16 vs. FLA...call me crazy, but I think Tebow and Gators come out and score 50+ this week. Nobody picked FLA this week, but I think GEO (who 3 picked) is completely overmatched and will get crushed.
Nobody is beating FLA the rest of the season.

- BOMB with an interesting BC pick ove CMU. This should be a really good game. BC at home is solid, but CMU has been playing as well as anyone right now.

- JG likes MIAMI! Wow, didn't see this one coming. I guess he's changing it up with the recent run of bad luck.

- JG and JR are all over A&M hosting ISU. Clones will be coming off the biggest win maybe ever for the progrum, A&M can score and should't have 8 turnover gifts for the Clones D...A&M 41-28.

- MK with a surprising VIR pick over DUKE. I think this might just be out of spite since Hoops season is around the corner...go Tar Heels, beat DOOK.

- GR and MH on MICH at ILL...these ILL lines have stayed reasonable, but my god are they bad. This is a good pick.

- MR with a curious KAN pick at TT as a dog. Not sure which way to lean in this one, should be plenty of O-fence though...I'll go with it, KAN 37-34

- MH likes NAVY over TEM...don't bet against the Owls, they are turning the corner

- BOMB and MC both like AF over COLST...good pick. It was #11 on my list.

- I was really tempted to take NEV -26.5 vs. HAW this week. NEV is probably going to score 60+...but they might allow 40 to a HAW team that is due to put together a game sometime soon.

- PSU at NW...I was uber impressed with the PSU win at MICH last week. Clark is the man, and that D is great. NW is still a horrible team. They are 5-3 and should be 3-5. The Gophers moved the ball all over the field on them...uh-oh. PSU huge 38-10

- MK likes MISST at UK at +3. This is a tough one for me. I really think both teams are playing pretty well and have improved this year. UK at home might be the difference, I'll take them.

- GT at VAN...strange game. We've gpot 1 guy on each MR-VAN, GR-GT. VAN can't score on anyone, but their D is really good. GT can score on everyone, but will the one-dimensional offense be stopped at a surprisingly difficult place to play like VANDY? No. GT is the pick.

- MR and MK jumped on 2 things...30 points and the chance to bet against ND. Sadly the team you have is WASHST. They are terrible, and will probably not cover. They are losing the avg game by 22 pts this year.

- SC-TN...nobody picked it. Should be a big defensive struggle. I'll take SC and the points...when it's an even SEC game with good D's always take 6 pts.

- TEX at OKST - MK on Gundy, GR and MH on TEX. Major lack of weapons for OKST, TEX is looking to prove something and get a quality road win. I think they will but it will be tough...TEX 31-21

- USC at ORE - you guys know which way I lean here. Carroll in a big game, don't bet against him. MK took ORE because he's a hater. 4 of us on USC. ORE has won 6 in a row, but CAL is really the only game that I thought they actually could have lost in that stretch. USC is starting to get it all together...Barkley coming through, running game hitting it's stride...USC wins 35-24

MSU at GOPHER NATION
I made this prediction last Saturday...we will not lose this game. AWEB and GRAY are both going to see time, which is a very good thing for this offense. How about we don't have a -3 in TO?!? That would be nice, huh. If we can handle the ball and do enough on offense (#5 running and #5 throwing) we can make this work. The defense needs to continue its solid play. Last week turned intoa landslide with all the turnovers, but this unit isn't that bad. We need to control the ball, which I think #5 can help with. He might be our only effective running threat on Saturday night. Sparty is not a bad team. They don't run it well, but they like to air it out. Their D has been really strong the last few weeks (ILL, NW, iOWA), which isn't saying a lot I guess...3 pretty bad offense right there. How about we hold them to less than 51% on 3rd down?!? That's what we're averaging this year. MSU has been turnover prone on the road this year, so I'm betting we get a couple of short fields to work with and hit Eric De...or I mean Brandon Green for a TD ad #5 runs in another for our longest play from scrimmage this year. In the end, the battle of 4-4 wannabes goes to the home team...

GOPHERS 23 SPARTY 21

5-4 on our way to 8-4!

NFL
-DEN-BAL is a tough one. I still believe in BAL so that's my pick. The DEN miracle run has to end sometime soon right?

- Lots of HOU love this week...if they are legit they win and cover this one no problem...but I'm not sure that they are legit.

- CLE at CHI - 2 guys on CLE, I love it! CHI lost a lot of hope last week with the beatdown they took...CLE is soooo bad though that this one is tough to call. I'll side with CLE if I had to pick someone.

- SEA at DAL - I think 11 is crazy high for this one. I'll take points.

- STL at DET - seriously. DET shouldn't be a 9.5 pt fav over ANYONE! Take points and please don't watch this debacle of a game.

- SF at IND - so Alex Smith is back to lead them to the promised land...hmmm...nope. IND keeps rolling.

- MIA at NYJ - one of the best of the week. I'm still not sure what to think on either of these two teams. I took MIA with points, but it could go either way.

- NYG at PHI - G-men are due for a nice game, PHI is not a good team right now. WAS coulda/shoulda beat them on Monday. OAK did beat them! NYG big in this one.

- JAC at TEN - can't take TEN as a FAV here. Until they prove that they actually want to try and win one this year I will continue to bet against them.

- OAK at SD - 17.5 is insane. I know it's OAK, but in a division game? Have to take points on this one.

- CAR at ARI - why is Jake DelHomme still your QB!?!?!?! how many games does this guy have to lose for you to get him benched! Take ARI in a blowout.

- ATL at NO - 10 is a lot, but the offense in NO score 40/gm...I can't bet against them at this point.

- MIN at GB
Does anyone in GB realize the Vikes are bringing more than one player with them this weekend? I know it's a big deal, but good god focus more on #4 GB. Purple come in and give them a steady dose of Adrian just when the Pack is expecting a lot from #4. AD goes off for 150, defense continues to get to AROG while giving up a few. Cheech catches a home run for the clincher

PURPLE PRIDE 27 PACK 21

Sounds like the perfect weekend...well, if the Gopher Hockey team can actually score and win a pair against the Drunken Sconnies...then it's a perfect weekend.

PJ - Marker in the Sand

There is a sickness,... a sickness coming over me
Like watching freedom,. Being sucked straight out to sea
An the solution?...... Well, from me far would it be
But the delusion,..... Is feeling dangerous to me

What goes wrong?

Walking tightrope high,... over moral ground
Seeing visions of,........ falling up somehow
Do come down

With the living, let,... what is living love
So unforgiving, yet,...... needing forgiveness first

What do you say,.......... God, what do you say?

Calling out,....... Calling out.
Calling out,....... I'm calling you out.

Picks needed from....

Heinert and Corcoran.

Other thoughts:

- iowa fans coming out of the woodwork
They're everywhere! They're everywhere! So the guy about 4 houses down from me conveniently decided to put his big yellow hogeye flagout by his door this week. Funny how the "true" fans come out once you're 8-0...haven't met this guy yet, but I don't think I'm going to make an effort to either...d-bag

Example #2...followed a guy into work today driving the largest pickup truck in the history of the world...car highlights included: piss on chevy sticker, rebel flag sticker, ski-doo sticker, harley stickers, whiskey plates, and a hogeye sticker. Stereotype for a reason I guess...just throw on a couple of seed corn stickers and he may have had the whole package.

- Cliff Lee
I wish I would have been in Vegas for last night because taking Cliff Lee as an underdog is like printing money! How great is this guy...love it. Now we just need Pedro to show up and win this thing back in Philly.

- Wolves
How excited am I for the World Series, well, I chose Wolves hoops over it last night. This Wolves club isn't going to be good, but I think I finally feel like we're moving in an upward direction. Johnny Flynn is already the #2 PG in team history...ahead of Stop-n-pop. When KLove comes back it could be a decent team to watch. Was that Corey Brewer MAKING shots last night??! I think they'll be ranking ahead of the Wild on the average winter evening for me

Just waiting on a couple of picks and then I'll send out the recap.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Line Update

NYG
PHI -3

Also, GOPHS moved to +3.5....everybody loves them this week to move it 2.5 points already. I'll take Gophers money line for $1000 Alex.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Week 9 Random Thoughts

If you haven't heard - Decker is done for the season, possibly returning in the Bowl Game. Obviously, this sucks because he's great...but really, with where this team currently sits, it isn't a huge deal. We're not winning the B10 this year, we're not going to a big bowl game (probably), and not fighting for a Nat'l title. The changing of the guard started last week with the #5 drive against the scrubs from OHIOST, and this just continues the trend. We need to honestly treat these next 4 or 5 games as a stepping stone into what hopefully will be a bigger and better 2010.

Let #5 play a lot at QB, let's see what our WR core will look like for next season, keep plugging in RB's and OLman to see who can play and who can't. Now I'm not saying throw the next 4 games and don't try and win, but honestly I really think these changes might give us the best chance to win. Not that having ED out is a good thing, but we really need to see what these other guys (TS, Green, HAYO, McKnight, Allen) can do. There is plenty of talent there, so now #5 and probably a little touch of AWEB, should be able to utilize it and spread the ball around.

I'm still feeling surprisingly good about this team and about our chances this week. 4-4 is right where we expected them to be. I know the offense has struggled, to put it nicely, but we just got crushed against 2 of the 10 best defenses in the nation...is this really a shock or a reason to start the fire Brewster chatter. I too thought the team would be playing better at this point in the regime and in the season, but we still have 1/3 of it left and plenty of time and opportunity to make this a nice season. 7-5 would be very solid, actually this was the ceiling I predicted at the start of the year. 6-6 not great, but a bowl game and holding the line from last year. Let's win some NOV games and finish strong. Brew is here for another 2 years, so the fire the coach talk is ridiculous. Tony Dungy is not going to coach this team - get over it.

Sparty comes in on Saturday and they have to be mentally drained. They should have won on Saturday, and now they are ready for a bad hangover effect. Remember when we should have beat MICH, the next week we forgot to show up against Sparty and got crushed at home when we were clearly a better team. I've seen it before, and I think that's what we'll be in for this weekend. Gophs will be jacked - weather sounds extra shitty - #5 is going to see plenty of PT...= GOPHER win.

Wow, didn't plan on this being a Gopher hope session...here's the other crap on my mind:

- Nebraska lost 9-7 at home against the Clones. What...the...F*ck??? Well, when you fumble 5 times and throw 3 picks you probably were lucky to be within 2. They just lost back to back games in Lincoln against TT and ISU. First time ISU has gotten them since 1977...wow. Pelini may be going from savior to goat in the matter of one month.

- MICH is back....er, nope, guess not. 1-3 in conference, at least 2 or 3 likely losses still remain, looks like 7-5 or 6-6 to me. Even with MICH talent you can't turn it around in 2 years. How about the PSU D!?! I love Clark as their QB, but that D is carrying the squad right now...why the hell didn't they do that against IOWA!?!?! They are allowing 8.9 ppg...the problem is that if/when they beat OHIOST the door will be wide open for IOWA. So we need to get Iowa 2 losses...Buckeyes can get them once, then the rodents shock the world on NOV 21! That might be the sweetest victory I will have ever witnessed in my lifetime if it comes to fruition.

How much does Gene Chizik suck?
So the guy struggles mightily at ISU, then gets the job at AUB. They start 5-0 with a dynamite offense and beat a lot of teams they were expected to beat. Then they lose their next 3 and give up 32 ppg in the defensive minded SEC. Meanwhile, his replacement Paul Rhodes steps in and has ISU at 5-3 (2-2) and has a shot at a B12 North title...with that roster! Kind of makes you wonder if the great Chizik might not have been in over his head at ISU much less at AUB where he is heading for a 6-6 season and a 2-6 conference run. I'm not saying he won't eventually do better, but I really don't think he's worth a crap as a coach, and I love seeing him struggle.

Anybody feeling like ORE is going to run over USC this weekend since USC's D has given up 27 and 36 the last 2 times out? I hope not...don't bet against Carroll or the USC defense in a big game. Just a word of warning before you turn in picks for the week. BTW - USC offense might score 40 this weekend as well.

Best Gig in the World
Mark Blount. Wolves traded to get him back this year. He's going to make $8M and he's been told not to show up...ever. He's home in Miami with no intention of coming into MPLS for any games this season. He has no value so he won't accept any type of buyout, so he's making $8M in the retarded NBA, which includes all guaranteed contracts, for doing as much as I will this winter. Nice.

Finally - the last rant of the day. NFL vs. NCAA Football. Obviously, you guys know my interest and loyalty lies about 85-15 with NCAA, but I want to tell you why. So huge game this week for the Purple at Pitt. Great game, they lose, and it really doesn't matter at all. We're 6-1 with 9 to play and this one loss is basically meaningless. There are no must win "big" games until DEC when it becomes an elimination tourney. The first 3 months are just setting you up to be in it or not in it. In the NCAA it's game on from day 1. VT-ALA week 1, NC elimination game. Every single week is so critical to the end result of your season, everything is magnified x10 vs. the average NFL week 7 game. I don't hate the NFL, I just love NCAA Football that much more. When every week can literally make or break your season, and there are always 2-3 games per week that will determine who the champions are...either a conference champ or Nat'l Champ. Clearly, I think the playoff system edge goes to the NFL, but as far as week in week out drama and watchability I choose NCAA Football 10 times out of 10.

Week 9 Games - return by 12:00 noon on THUR

ECU
MEM 4.5 - TUESDAY

NC
VT -16.5 - THURSDAY

WV
USF 3.5 - FRIDAY

RUT
UCONN -8

NCST
FSU -7.5

CIN
SYR 14.5

NMST
OHIOST -39.5

PUR
WIS -7

OHIO
BALLST 7.5

ULL
FIU -4

IND
IOWA -17.5

AKR
NILL -9.5

OLE
AUB 4.5

NEB
BAY 12.5

SOMISS
HOU -7.5

MIZZ
COL 4

SMU
TULSA -17

WMU
KENT 1

SJST
BOISE -33

UAB
UTEP -6.5

CAL
ASU 6.5

GEO
FLA -16

ARKST
LOU -4.5

CMU
BC -4.5

MIA
WF 7

TOL
MIAOH 6

ISU
A&M -6.5

DUKE
VIR -6.5

MICH
ILL 8.5

KAN
TT -7.5

TEM
NAVY -7

UCLA
OREST -8.5

WKY
NTEX -9

AF
COLST 3.5

MDTN
FAU -2

UNLV
TCU -33

HAW
NEV -26.5

PSU
NW 13.5

LT
IDAHO -3

UTST
FRES -15.5

EMU
ARK -36.5

MISST
UK -3

KST
OK -25

ULM
TROY -17

GT
VAN 13.5

NM
SDST -17.5

WASU
ND -30

SC
TN -6

TEX
OKST 9

TULANE
LSU -34

MSU
MN 6

WY
UTAH -16

USC
ORE 3.5

MARSH
UCF -3.5

DEN
BAL -3.5

HOU
BUF 3

CLE
CHI -14

SEA
DAL -11

STL
DET -9.5

SF
IND -12.5

MIA
NYJ -4

NYG
PHI

JAC
TEN -3

OAK
SD -17.5

MIN
GB -3

CAR
ARI -9

ATL
NO -10

Week 8 Standings

8 weeks down...here's how we look:

MR 66 54 55.0%
JR 65 55 54.2%
GR 64 56 53.3%
MC 64 56 53.3%
MH 62 58 51.7%
JG 59 61 49.2%
MK 58 62 48.3%
AW 55 65 45.8%

493-467 total...not terrible, much better than year's past actually.

NFL

JR 21 14 60.0%
GR 20 15 57.1%
MR 18 17 51.4%
MC 17 18 48.6%
AW 17 18 48.6%
MH 17 18 48.6%
MK 16 19 45.7%
JG 13 22 37.1%

139-141, slightly below .500 - not last week though...28-12 LW for a robust 70%...wow

NCAA

MR 48 37 56.5%
MC 47 38 55.3%
JG 46 39 54.1%
MH 45 40 52.9%
GR 44 41 51.8%
JR 44 41 51.8%
MK 42 43 49.4%
AW 38 47 44.7%

354-326...+28 over .500, not bad.

Overall pick'em...I went 37-19 in NCAA for 66.1%, one week too late damn it!
NFL I went 8-5 and am hitting 58.3% for the year. NCAA total is at 52%.

VEGAS got hit hard last Sunday. I read that one book paid out 5 10-team parlay winners for $80K each on Sunday. I read a quote of the Hilton guru saying that Sunday was the worst day in the history of betting football for Las Vegas sports books. What does this all mean? Well, Vegas is getting crushed by having all of these "heavy" favorites continuing to cover over bad teams every week. So the lines for this week look more like NCAA lines, basically if it isn't a matchup of 2 decent teams you're going to see a line anywhere from 15-20 going forward until things even out. Should make for some tough NFL calls coming up.

Consistency Ratings
Here's who has been the most consistent (most +.500 weeks)

TOTAL
MC - 5
MH - 5

NFL
JR - 4
MC - 4

NCAA
MR - 5
MC - 5
MH - 5

Toughest Year so far (consistency)
TOTAL
JR, MK, AW - 3 +.500 weeks

NFL
JG - 2

NCAA
AW - 1

STREAKS
- MC and MH both have 4 winning weeks in a row TOTAL
- JG has had 4 straight losing NFL weeks (5-15)
- AW has had 6 straight losing NCAA weeks (27-33)(all 4-6 and 5-5 weeks)
- MC had gone 8-2 in NCAA for 3 consecutive weeks before a 6-4 performance this week
- MH has gone 6-4 in NCAA the last 4 weeks
- Nobody has posted a 0 in either NFL or NCAA yet...will it happen?

WORST PICKS OF THE WEEK
NCAA - BYU (JG) - 1pt home dog that lost by 31!
NFL - CHI (MK, MC) - 1 pt road dog that lost by 35 without forcing 1 punt!

I'll send out the games shortly as well as a recap of soe random thoughts from the weekend later today.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Week 8 Results

A nice week 8 for nearly all of us...here's where we are right now:

MR: 11-3 +PHI
JR: 10-4 +PHI
GR: 9-5 +PHI
MH: 9-5 +PHI
MC: 9-5 +PHI
MK: 8-6 +PHI
AW: 8-7
JG: 6-8 +PHI

70-43 with a potential for 7 more W's if Philly cover tonight. That would be 64% total for the week which is pretty tough.

Full update after tonight's classic snoozer with PHI-WAS.